A NEW SURVEY shows a drastic drop in the amount of people who think it’s a good time to buy a house in Ireland.
The survey, carried out by Amárach Research this month for The Journal, asked a representative sample of 1,000 people from across the country a range of questions about housing.
It shows noteworthy trends in the general public’s perceptions about the housing
situation in Ireland, by comparing results from previous years with this month’s exclusive results as part of a new series using the company’s 25-year archive.
Back in 2009, Amárach asked respondents “Is now a good time to buy a house for those who want to?”. In December 2009, 60% of Irish people agreed it was a good time. A year later, which was shortly after Ireland had been bailed out by the IMF, most people (55%) still thought it was a good time to buy a house.
However, in December 2022 that number has dropped to just 14% of Irish adults thinking now is a good time to buy a house. The figure is lower for women (11%) and is slightly higher for the 25-44 age group.
Recent years have seen the development of a housing crisis in Ireland, with rental and house prices soaring while supply has dwindled despite government promises. In a recent Dail debate, the now Taoiseach Leo Varadkar acknowledged that the 28,000 homes that will be built this year and that 16,000 first-time buyers’ homes, though high compared with the past 10-15 years, “is not enough”.
Meanwhile, the latest Housing Market Monitor report, published by the Banking and Payments Federation earlier this month, showed that the average rent in Ireland has increased by 85% compared to the EU average of 18% between 2010 and the second quarter of 2022.
It found that the demand for housing, as well as the significant gap between average rent and mortgage payments, have led to prices rising consistently.
A protest calling for government action on the housing crisis took place in Dublin in late November of this year. Homeless figures had hit a record high of 11,397 people that same month.
Back in 2016, Amárach asked people “realistically, how long do you think it will take to resolve issues in housing?” The majority thought it would take “at least seven years”.
But in December 2022 the answer to the same question is “at least 10 years” for most people (55%).
This opinion is shared across all demographic groups in Ireland, according to the survey.
Only one in four people believed the Government understood the extent of the housing crisis back in 2016 – the number is the same today.
The survey also asked people about the future and their opinion on the proportion of renters to homeowners. In 2015, Amárach asked people how happy they would be if most people rent rather than buy their homes in 10 years’ time – only 13% said they would be happy.
In December 2022, the percentage happy with that same outcome in 2032 has fallen to just 9%.
Also back in 2015, nearly half (47%) of adults thought it likely that “most people will rent rather than buy their homes in 10 years’ time”. By December 2022, 59% said they expect most people to rent in 10 years’ time.
Over two thirds of young people (18-24 year olds) say they expect to rent rather than buy by 2032.
The survey this month also asked those currently renting the following question: “Which of the following is more likely to happen to you in the future?”
Men and under 35s are most likely to go for the emigration option.
Meanwhile, the Housing For All plan, which was launched last year and described by Government as “a radical plan underpinned by record State investment” in housing, guarantees at least €4 billion of capital investment into the sector in both 2022 and 2023.
However, figures from the Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage provided to The Journal in November showed that just half of that €4 billion figure had been spent by the Government during the first three quarters of 2022.
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