A RETURN OF coalition based around Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is likely if the exit poll results are borne out tomorrow. 

The top three parties are all tied on similar support, according to an exit poll commissioned by RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4, Trinity College Dublin and carried out by Ipsos B&A.

So now what? 

With these figures, and noting the margin of error, it is pretty much deadlock.

Government formation talks could prove tricky, but there is a path back to power for Simon Harris and Micheál Martin, if they choose it. 

That raises the question of the rotating Taoiseach model and whether that could be back on the cards.

Both Harris and Martin have said they want to lead, with both men also indicating they would want the first go at being Taoiseach if the model was repeated. 

However, there is still a three-way race on who will come out as the largest party in the Dáil. 

A third or possibly fourth party could be needed to prop up a government led by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

The more parties you have, the more unstable the next government could be. It was reported during the campaign that Labour and the Social Democrats were being eyed up as possible replacements for the Greens. 

The poll shows Sinn Féin on 21.1% which is a drop of 3.4% since the general election in 2020.

Meanwhile, Fine Gael is at 21%, 0.1 increase on 2020, while Fianna Fáil comes in at 19.5% which is a fall off of 2.7% on five years ago.

A reminder of the exit poll results for other parties: 

• Green Party 4%
• The Labour Party 5%
• Social Democrats 5.8%
• Solidarity People-Before-Profit 3.1%
• Aontú 3.6%
• Independent Ireland 2.2%
• Others 1.9%
• Independents 12.7%

While Fine Gael had a poor campaign, Simon Harris will likely be happy to be coming in higher than Fianna Fáil, though Micheál Martin, who has made it very clear over the years that he is not a fan of polls, will be eagerly looking at the actual results tomorrow and hoping tonight’s poll is an underestimation.

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These figures make for good reading for Sinn Féin, but with both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil already ruling out even talking to the party, it looks very unlikely, though not impossible, for Sinn Féin to form the next government.

The only real way forward would be for Sinn Féin to cobble together left-leaning coalition, which is unlikely, or for Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin to join forces. 

However, speaking on RTÉ this evening, Fianna Fáil’s director of elections, Jack Chambers has said nothing has changed in terms of their position on Sinn Féin since the polls closed, stating that there is a clear incompatibility between their parties’ policy platforms.  

Martin did previously rule out going into government with Fine Gael, and look how that turned out. So, could this election result force him into a room for talks with Mary Lou McDonald?

The exit poll results are still hugely notable and mean forming a government will be even trickier than might have been assumed in the latter days of the campaign. 

But if there is a path for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, one can assume that is the preference of Martin and Harris right now.