GE2024 AnalysisFINE GAELERS HAVE been quietly conceding today that Micheál Martin will be in the position to become the next Taoiseach.
Those in the party are acknowledging privately that Fianna Fáil is likely to win more seats after series of gaffes by Harris and his party.
Momentum for Fine Gael has slumped with just four days to go before the general election, according to a new opinion poll.
The Taoiseach’s party now trails both Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin, according to an Irish Times/Ipsos B&A published today.
Fianna Fail leads the way on 21% – up two points since the last poll two weeks ago, while Sinn Fein has 20% – up one point.
Fine Gael is on 19% support – down six points since the 14 November poll.
Seat numbers matter, particularly in terms of the rotating Taoiseach model, and while that will be up to the horse-trading between parties post-election, the mood is that Martin will have the edge and will therefore be in the position to become the next Taoiseach.
Whether there is a swap-around after two years, as there was for the last government, again, this comes down to the gap between the parties in terms of seats, and government formation negotiations.
Those in Fine Gael have said that while it was always the ambition for Harris to be returned as Taoiseach, having held the job for seven months now, it was not a certainty.
With 18 TDs retiring, the party acknowledges that the fight to retain those seats would always be a battle.
The ‘Simon Slump” as it is being dubbed by those in the media, comes ahead of the live RTÉ leaders debate, for which Harris will be in a fight for his life.
This is likely to be one of the most important election leaders debates in years.
Research shows that voters really only engage with election campaigns in the final days, meaning that Harris only has a matter of days to turn things around for his party.
Those in the party state there is going to be a massive push in the last few days to increase their popularity, but they acknowledge that the TV debate is going to be the deciding factor for many people.
Voters will be more plugged-in to the election and could make up their minds on who they will vote for on the grounds of what they see tomorrow night.
Fine Gael’s campaign has not been a good one for the party, having gotten off on the wrong foot with comments made by Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary about teachers, and the subsequent laughter from Fine Gael party members at the remarks.
This was swiftly followed by criticisms of Harris’ judgement over standing by Louth candidate John McGahon, which many within the party have described as a self inflicted wound.
But it was the interaction with Charlotte Fallon, a section 39 care worker, which as really dealt a body blow to the campaign.
Harris apologised over the weekend after facing criticism for his handling of an encounter with the disability care worker while canvassing in Kanturk in Co Cork on Friday.
Harris was criticised after walking away from Fallon when she asked him about a lack of support for carers and care workers. After a public backlash, the Taoiseach called her on Saturday to apologise.
What will probably put a chill down the spines of Fine Gaelers is that today’s opinion poll was conducted among 1,200 adults from 20 to 23 November – so many people were interviewed prior to the Harris video going viral.
Therefore, the impact of the controversy has yet to be seen in polling.
With the campaign now two weeks in, the spotlight is being shone on the Fine Gael strategy, and whether the speedy shaking hands campaign and having a gaggle of reporters join him on the trail was the best move for the party.
RTÉ’s Claire Byrne questioned Harris today on his strategy of meeting as many people as as possible, shaking hands, having photograph taken, but perhaps not listening and not hearing what people are saying.
“I’ve been listening. I’ve been listening intently,” he replied.
But as the saying goes, when you’re explaining, you’re losing. This was evident when the party wheeled out former Taoiseach Enda Kenny in Mayo yesterday alongside Harris to give a raucous speech to rally the troops.
Kenny told the crowd that Harris had showed “humility and understanding” in apologising to the care worker.
It is reported that he also noted that Harris “is a young man who can’t have acquired the experience of life 20, 30 years” but said he’s trying to pick that up quickly.
Fine Gael was riding on ‘brand Harris’, but when the gloss starts to come off the party leader, then there’s trouble. However, if anything, the party will be hoping the poll results get their supporters out on voting day on Friday.
The votes have yet to be cast, meaning no matter what Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil assume will be the outcome, it’s all to play for as the clock runs down.
To embed this post, copy the code below on your site
have your say