WHEN WILL THE next election be?
“It’s not what’s concerning people,” Taoiseach Simon Harris told reporters at the start of the Fine Gael think-in in Tullamore yesterday.
The general public have more pressing matters on their minds, he said, stating that no one outside the bubble cares about when the next election is.
But it was all the politicians could talk about at the think-in over the last two days.
The majority of Fine Gael TDs said they would have a general election tomorrow if they could, but most predict privately it will be held on a date in November.
This is despite constant reassurances from their party leader that this government will go “full term”.
“New team, new energy” was the theme of the event at the Tullamore Court Hotel, with Harris stating that his party is in a state of renewal.
There was a noted difference to last year’s think-in which took place in Limerick, which was described as a “funereal” and “damp” by some politicians today.
Leo Varadkar was party leader at the time. The former Taoiseach was present at this year’s party gathering, though he was notably more relaxed, and obviously at ease with his decision to vacate the top job.
In comparison to last year’s event, there is a pep in the step of Fine Gaelers this year, who are all hoping the ‘Harris hop’ in the polls will translate into more seats in the general election, whenever that might be.
Many remarked on the the change in mood music within the party since Harris took over the leadership, stating that there is definitely a step-change. While the party had resigned itself that it was heading for the opposition benches, party members dare to dream that there could be life in them yet, with one TD describing the party as “buoyant”.
Despite a much heavier Garda presence at the think-in than previous years, given the rise in threats levelled at the Taoiseach and other ministers, that step-change was evident on the streets of Tullamore, where the Taoiseach took part in a canvass with local representatives, and was seen sticking his head into car windows of cars stopped at traffic lights on the main street.
He was even gifted a bottle of Tullamore Dew by the local Tidy Towns group.
Micheál Martin will be hoping for a similar reception in Killiney next week, where Fianna Fáil are due to hold the party think-in. The Labour Party chose Malahide as its location for its party gathering last week, while Aontú is holding its party think-in this weekend.
It will be followed by the Social Democrats, Sinn Féin and People Before Profit who are meeting next week, ahead of the new Dáil term beginning on Wednesday.
The narrative surrounding Fine Gael last year was the growing exodus of TDs from the party.
Fifteen TDs (not including former housing minister Eoghan Murphy, who announced his shock Dáil resignation ins April 2021) have now announced that they will not be contesting the next general election – almost half of the party’s 33 TDs.
The well-known faces that are heading for the door were present at what will be their final Fine Gael think-in, but most don’t see the departures as an issue for the party.
Instead, the party leader is spinning the departures as a chance of renewal within the party: New faces with new ideas.
One politician who is not running again said, like anything, it is always good to get an injection of new, fresh ideas.
This TD said all too often politicians overstay their welcome and fail to recognise when to get off the stage. As the party gets supercharged, they predicted Fine Gael will gain around ten extra seats.
They predicted the party would take a seat in Waterford as well as South Tipperary, while also pointing to Kerry, where Billy O’Shea, a former All-Ireland winning Kerry footballer is hoping to run for Fine Gael in the general election to replace exiting TD Brendan Griffin.
It was acknowledged that work will have to be done to hold on to their seats in some constituencies where well-known faces are departing.
One such battleground is Cork South Central, where Councillor Shane O’Callaghan and Councillor Una McCarthy were selected, beating off competition from more high-profile candidates.
The selection was a significant one for the party as it entails replacing Minister Simon Coveney who has previously confirmed he does not wish to run again in the next election. Coveney has been a TD in the constituency since 1998 except for when he spent three years as an MEP between 2004 and 2007.
There are worries that Donegal might a problem for the party, but there are hopes for the crowded Dublin Bay South constituency where Kate O’Connell is expected to be added to the ticket, though the current Lord Mayor of Dublin James Geoghan, who has been selected to run, might not welcome such a move.
The lack of name and face recognition in some areas might be a fear, but one TD said they were impressed by the new candidates that are running, stating ”they’re really good, they come from good backgrounds, they’re on the ground in the community, they have a story to tell about themselves”.
They said in a three-week election campaign anything can happen, but it all comes down to the need for a new person to impress during an election campaign. If the party supports them and the veteran politicians, along with the party machine surround them, they will do well, said this politician.
Name recognition has always played a part in electoral success, which could be the case for Cork East’s TD David Stanton’s son, Mark Stanton, who is hoping to take his father’s seat.
The Fine Gael hopeful received a warm reception at Old Warehouse pub and restaurant last night, when a cake was brought out to celebrate his birthday. The venue, which belongs to golfing superstar Shane Lowry, was where the party chose to dine last night.
Most Fine Gaelers The Journal spoke to said there is a great sense of confidence in the party right now.
There is positivity on the doorsteps too, said one TD, stating that in the previous election, they were told by voters in their 30s that they wouldn’t be voting for Fine Gael as they couldn’t afford a house.
Now people seem to see a glimmer of hope, said this politician, putting it down to increased housing delivery.
They said people seemed sceptical about the housing policies put forward by Sinn Féin, stating that voters are not certain Sinn Féin has the solutions they are looking for.
Whether the public believe Fine Gael has those solutions is something we will have to wait and see about, but the last two days in Tullamore certainly shows that even after 14 long years in government, the party still believes it has a few more good years in it yet.
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