AS IF BREXIT and international trading arrangements weren’t complicated enough, the heat of an upcoming Northern Ireland election – where a massive demographic shift is expected to flip the unionist-nationalist dynamic - has added a whole new dimension.
Practical Brexit matters have always been muddied by the political climate in Westminster – but the intricacies of politics in Northern Ireland added another layer of confusion.
“Because of the elections, the Protocol will remain a live issue here,” one expert told us in December. “The DUP in particular sees the majority of its supporters as anti-Protocol, so they will continue to bang that drum next year, which is rational for that party to do.”
The last time we sent out a Brexit newsletter, it was over the resignation of Edwin Poots as DUP leader after just 21 days in power – there were concerns over how that would affect the talks over the Protocol then, and Minister Simon Coveney said it was the last thing Northern Ireland needed.
Just over six months later and we’re back again, writing about another DUP resignation, and more exasperation about how it does little to serve the people of Northern Ireland.
Paul Givan’s resignation as First Minister of Northern Ireland came just a day after Edwin Poots ordered all Brexit checks on agri-goods going from GB to NI to be stopped, giving a spurious argument why he could no longer stand over them.
There is always a local politics angle, and this row is no different. It’s worth noting that at the weekend, Poots was not selected by the DUP as a candidate for the South Down area. Poots had indicated he wanted to leave his Lagan Valley constituency and stand in South Down – before the political drama unfolded on Wednesday night, he blamed Jeffrey Donaldson, his successor as DUP leader, for his failed attempt to become an election candidate in the area.
The party nominated Diane Forsythe as its candidate for South Down instead.
In a statement, the DUP MP Sammy Wilson said that it was “disappointing that Edwin had not accepted this decision”, and that “any Executive challenge would not result in Edwin replacing Diane as the candidate in South Down”.
Poots then gave an interview on the BBC’s Good Morning Ulster in which he said “Edwin Poots hasn’t gone away” and that his political demise “had not happened yet”.
Givan was also hand-selected for the First Minister role by Poots.
Poots has contended that he is taking action now because the legal position has only recently been clarified by recent court rulings that examined issues around Executive authority (a Belfast High Court orrder has since quashed Poots’ order to civil servants to stop Protocol checks at Northern Ireland ports.)
The UK Government is not impressed
My statement on the resignation of Northern Ireland’s First Minister 👇https://t.co/01pzPb5SCW pic.twitter.com/LR497nMOeA
— Brandon Lewis (@BrandonLewis) February 3, 2022
One of the most fascinating responses to Givan stepping down as First Minister was from the UK Government.
Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis said in a statement that Givan’s decision is “extremely disappointing”, and has urged the DUP to “reinstate their First Minister immediately” – like a parent scolding a bold child.
Despite Lewis saying previously that the British Government would not intervene after Poots ordered all agri-checks at Northern Ireland ports to stop, Lewis changed his tune the following day to say that the UK Government is “fully committed to fixing the problems”, and “will continue intensive talks with the EU in order to resolve these”.
But it’s hard not to see this row as something that was let fester by the British Government – after months of using the Protocol as a political pawn.
Sammy Wilson said this morning that there had been “huge benefits” to Brexit, which aren’t being experienced by Northern Ireland because of the Protocol.
“Brexit has been good for the UK in terms of trade deals… in terms of the fastest growing economy, and the lowest unemployment in Europe”.
But Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney gave an interesting insight into where talks were at, when he said this morning that the decision was especially frustrating because it was coming in the lead up to a solution to be announced at the end of this month.
“What’s frustrating about this… is it’s been very clear to everybody for a number of weeks now that Maroš Šefčovič and Liz Truss were effectively setting the end of February as a key moment in time to actually agree a number of compromises that could take some of the heat out of the debate around the implementation of the Protocol, by reducing the checks burden significantly in terms of customs, in terms of SPS, and by making it clear that goods that are staying in Northern Ireland would be treated differently to goods that would potentially be coming across the border into the south.”
This has already been refuted by Donaldson, who claimed that Boris Johnson told him there’s only a “20% to 30% chance” of new deal for Northern Ireland in next few weeks.
But he also added that Donaldson has been threatening to pull his support for a while, and it won’t stop progress between the EU and the UK.
“They have been saying for some time that if they didn’t get what they wanted in relation to the Protocol that they would do this… It doesn’t change things much actually.”
That leaves the devolved government in the North as the most affected in this row.
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