A DRAFT OPINION from the US Supreme Court shows that the court is poised to overturn the landmark Roe v Wade case, which enshrined legal abortions across all 50 states.
This is a significant move, as it would fundamentally change the landscape across the US, with up to half of the states across the country likely to ban abortion outright.
The leaked opinion, which was reported by Politico late last night, shows that a majority of judges are behind the decision to strike down the case.
However, it is not yet clear whether or not this will remain the final wording when a decision is reached.
The draft opinion is reportedly in reference to a case that sought to challenge Mississippi’s ban on abortion after 15 weeks, in a case that is known as Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organisation.
The draft is signed by Justice Samuel Alito, a member of the court’s 6-3 conservative majority, who was appointed by former President George W Bush.
“Roe was egregiously wrong from the start,” the draft opinion states.
“We hold that Roe and Casey must be overruled,” it adds, referencing the 1992 case Planned Parenthood v Casey that affirmed Roe’s finding of a constitutional right to abortion services but allowed states to place some constraints on the practice.
“It is time to heed the Constitution and return the issue of abortion to the people’s elected representatives.”
A spokesperson for the Supreme Court said that the court had no comment on the draft opinion.
The current draft opinion is not the final opinion, with the US Supreme Court not set to issue a final ruling on the case until either June or July.
There may be some changes in how judges vote before a final decision is reached, however the court itself is split 6-3, with conservatives having the majority.
With this uncertainty set to remain until a final decision is reached, what would change if Roe v Wade was overturned?
Impacts
With no Constitutional right to abortion, it would be down to individual states to legislate for whether or not they want to allow abortions.
In the immediate aftermath, the US Centre for Reproductive Rights expects that 24 states are set to try and ban abortions outright.
These states are: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
This may not happen immediately however and some states will have to enact legislation before abortions can be either banned or highly restricted.
However, a total of thirteen states have so called “trigger laws” which would automatically ban abortions if Roe v Wade was overturned by the top US court.
These states are: Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming.
There are several states who have in-built protections for abortion rights and would likely ensure that abortions remain available.
Women from states where abortions become banned would either have to travel to neighbouring states where it is legalised or order abortion pills from outside their State.
This is likely to cause a drop in abortions overall, with the New York Times saying that many of the women who get abortions are more likely to be poor, with long distance travel being costly.
Pro-life pressures
In recent years, there have been significant pressures placed on the Roe v Wade decision by pro-life groups and politicians, with multiple laws across the US being passed in states that restrict abortions.
More recently, in September 2021, Texas passed a law which banned abortions once a heartbeat can be detected, typically after six weeks with no exceptions for rape or incest.
Before six weeks, some women may not know that they are pregnant as it can be between four and seven weeks before a pregnancy is discovered.
This “heartbeat law” was passed by Republican lawmakers in Texas allowed members of the public to sue doctors who perform abortions after six weeks.
The US Department of Justice then filed a lawsuit against the State, with Attorney General Merrick Garland saying that it was unconstitutional and had impacted women’s access to abortions.
“Thus far, the law has had its intended effect,” Garland said. “Because the statute makes it too risky for an abortion clinic to stay open, abortion providers have ceased providing services.
“This leaves women in Texas unable to exercise their constitutional rights.”
However, the Supreme Court refused attempts to allow the case to be sent to a district court judge who previously attempted to block the law, leaving it at a conservative appeals court.
There had previously been a number of “heartbeat laws” implemented in Republican states, including Georgia and Alabama.
Additional reporting by AFP
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