SINN FÉIN’S PERFORMANCE at last week’s Northern Ireland local elections has been described as a “remarkable transformation for the party” by a leading professor of British and Irish politics.
Sinn Féin is the largest party in Northern Irish local government, claiming 144 of the 462 available seats in Thursday’s election, an increase of 39 on the last council election in 2019.
The DUP came away from the election with the same number of seats, at 122.
But while cross-community Alliance increased its number of seats by 14 to reach 67, it was bad news for the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) and the SDLP.
The UUP ended up with 54 seats, a decrease of 21, and the SDLP 39, a drop of 20.
Smaller parties and independents took the remaining 36 seats.
“It’s huge,” said Jon Tonge, a British and Irish politics professor at the University of Liverpool.
“Sinn Féin are now the largest party in local government in Northern Ireland, the largest party in the Northern Ireland assembly, and could become the largest party in the Westminster election, albeit not taking their seats at Westminster.
“They are also on course to become the largest party south of the border at the next election there, that’s basically the set. It’s a remarkable transformation for the party.”
There has been no functioning government in Stormont since last year when the DUP withdrew in protest over the post-Brexit trading arrangements for Northern Ireland.
As a result, Tongue said that the election to some extent “wasn’t really about the local councils in the north” but was rather a “referendum on the DUP staying out of power sharing”.
“That absence of the DUP helped mobilise the Sinn Féin vote in a ‘get back to work message’ to the DUP.
“It didn’t harm the DUP, their vote held up perfectly well and they got exactly the same number of seats.
“So what’s interesting now is whether the result will entice the DUP back into Stormont.”
Tonge noted that “a lot of stuff was thrown at the DUP during the course of the contest from beyond unionism”.
“The DUP would have certainly taken 122 seats, their previous tally, if you’d offered them that before Thursday’s election.
“They resisted, held firm and said, ‘we’re not going back into Stormont until the British government confirms our place within the UK internal market’.
“Whether it’s possible is another matter given the terms of the Windsor Framework,” added Tonge.
The UK Government and EU unveiled the Windsor Framework earlier this year as a means of resolving trading difficulties between Northern Ireland and Britain, caused by the post-Brexit Northern Ireland Protocol.
But the DUP has said its political and trading concerns must be met before it returns to government.
“The election results helps a little in terms of the DUP going back into Stormont,” Tonge told The Journal.
“At one level, that might sound paradoxical because you’ve got a strong vote there in support of the DUP’s abstention from Stormont.
“But on the other hand, it makes it easier in the sense that if Jeffrey Donaldson does decide to take his party back into Stormont, he can say, ‘we’re not going back tail between legs, we’re going back head held high, on the basis of a strong mandate to go back into Stormont on our terms’.
“That’s if the British government can come up with some sort of fig leaf or some sort of legislation that might satisfy the DUP.
“But they won’t be going back because they’re electorally wounded,” said Tonge.
However, Tonge added that “there is a broader problem for unionism”.
“The nationalist vote exceeded the Unionist vote and that is an issue.
“If there was to be a border poll, you might still expect there to be a pro-union majority but that gets less certain the more that nationalist vote begins to pull away from the unionist vote.
“Unionism is in slow retreat, the unionist vote combined is now down about 12% from the time of the Good Friday Agreement.
“If it carries on dropping, then the union itself long-term is in danger.”
Speaking at a counting centre on Friday, UUP leader Doug Beattie said: “It is clear that many unionists and people who are pro-union are simply not getting out to vote.
“We have a real issue getting people out of their doors to go and cast their vote in many areas.
“That is a failing on our behalf, maybe it is a failing on unionism’s behalf.”
Tonge said many of these voters would turn up to the ballot box for a border poll.
“Only 56% of the electorate voted last Thursday, the turn-out of the Good Friday Agreement referendum was 81%.
“So let’s say it’s the same turnout for a border poll, which is quite feasible. We need to know how those other 25% would vote,” said Tonge.
“There’s probably quite a few silent, pro-union voters. If you look at the differential in turn-out in mainly nationalist areas, it was 5% higher last Thursday than it was in mainly unionist areas.
“So there’s a stay-at-home, pro-union vote which doesn’t like the unionist parties, but would probably turn out on border poll day.”
But while Tonge said this may be enough to protect the union in the short-term, there is a clear demographic shift in the long-term.
“There’s a reason why the bookmakers have Northern Ireland odds on for voting to stay in the UK at the first border poll,” said Tonge.
“There’s a reason for that, because almost certainly if there were to be a border poll in the next few years, there would still be a vote for Northern Ireland to stay in the UK.
“But longer term, the pro-union majority is probably disappearing. It’s probably around 50% based on survey evidence and opinion poll evidence.
“The pro-United Ireland figure is around 37%, with plenty of ‘don’t knows’. It’s the ‘don’t knows’ that need convincing, they’re the ones who will ultimately determine a border poll.”
In the aftermath of last week’s election, successful UUP candidate Paul Michael lent his support to a merger between the DUP and the UUP.
But Tonge said he doesn’t foresee this happening.
“UUP leader Doug Beattie and DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson would probably be happy to merge but there’s no way the party membership in the UUP would allow it.
“Only 15% of the UUP membership want a merger with the DUP. They’re happy enough to have electoral pacts but they don’t want a merger.
“There’s no love lost between the DUP and the UUP really,” adds Tonge.
“Unless the party leaderships completely override the party memberships, it isn’t going to happen and I think that’s unlikely.”
Tonge said the recent Northern Ireland elections surpassed Sinn Féin’s “wildest expectations”.
“The small parties got squeezed by Sinn Féin and its surge capsized a lot of boats during the election,” said Tongue.
The Green Party lost three seats, including that of its leader Mal O’Hara, and People Before Profit also saw their share cut by three.
“The SDLP obviously took the most damage,” said Tonge, “but if you actually look at where Sinn Féin gained seats from, the SDLP only amounts to just over half of that tally.
“The other near 50% was shared amongst the other parties. So there was pain for all the parties, Sinn Féin was taking seats across the board.
“They won 76% of the nationalist vote and by winning that and creating such a Sinn Féin surge, you can knock out other parties almost inadvertently.
“In the urban areas, the Greens and People Before Profit fell victim to the Sinn Féin surge; Sinn Féin looks unstoppable at the moment.”
Tonge noted that “even Sinn Féin’s electoral strategists wouldn’t have expected 144 seats” and adds that “they could have actually won a couple more seats had they fielded more candidates”.
But while Sinn Féin exceeded their “wildest expectations”, there is much soul-searching to be done for the SDLP, who are now down 20 councillors.
However, despite some doom and gloom around the party, Tonge told The Journal that “there’s still a point to the SDLP while they’ve got two MPs” in leader Colum Eastwood and Claire Hanna.
“Remember, there could be a Labour government next year in Westminster and possibly a Labour minority government and that would make the SDLP relevant if there was a minority.
“The SDLP isn’t going to fold while you have Colum Eastwood and Claire Hanna holding Westminster seats with big majorities in Foyle and Belfast South respectively.”
Tonge said the immediate focus of the SDLP has to turn to how to defend these seats in the next Westminster election.
“Colum Eastwood absolutely trashed Sinn Féin in Foyle at the last election. His majority is certainly going to be cut but he could hold it.
“So why would you wind up a party with two MPs, it isn’t going to happen.
“There might even be some republicans who support abstentionism and they’re fine with Sinn Féin being an abstentionist party in terms of Westminster.
“They understand the principle, but they might think for this upcoming UK general election and this election only, I’ll give my vote to the SDLP because I’d like a nationalist who would take their seats at Westminster and represent us.”
The next UK general election is currently due to take place in January 2025.
“Longer term though,” said Tonge, “I’m not sure the SDLP has a bright future at all in Northern Ireland.
“They don’t have any of the structural advantages enjoyed by Sinn Féin as an all-island party.
“If you want a United Ireland, the logic is to be an all-island party, but the SDLP has never been able to form any sort of enduring relationship.
“They flirted with Fianna Fáil but Colum Eastwood never really liked that.
“They’re confined to the north and that doesn’t really work if your perspective is that you’re trying to create a new Ireland.”
Meanwhile, there have been calls in some quarters for Alliance, who designate as “other”, to come down one way or another on the constitutional question.
But Tonge doesn’t see any merits in doing so.
“There’s no way Alliance is going to declare anytime soon where they stand on a constitutional question, because it would split the party,” said Tonge.
“It’s the one thing that Alliance comes under pressure on, a lot of people want Alliance to declare but they’re not going to.
“Firstly, they don’t think that politics should be defined by the constitutional question, and secondly, it would split Alliance,” adds Tonge.
“The younger Alliance voters support a United Ireland in increasing numbers, but the older ones would still be pro-union.
“Alliance is not going to split its fan base by declaring, they’ve got to keep them all on side.
“Obviously, if there was a border poll to be called, Alliance would have to decide whether it’s going to take a position and I suspect they would just leave it to their voters and their own party members.”
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