IRELAND WILL BLOW through its first two carbon budgets unless the government takes urgent action to slash emissions, according to an independent panel of climate experts.

The Climate Change Advisory Council, which is tasked with advising the government on climate action and assessing Ireland’s progress, has warned that the country is at risk of not meeting the targets in its first and second carbon budget periods.

It said 2023 is a “critical year” for delivering on climate action and that the current pace of implementing policy is not acceptable given the existential threat posed by the climate crisis.

Carbon budgets were signed into law last year that allocate a certain amount of emissions that Ireland must stay within in order to meet national and international targets and help thwart the climate crisis.

The three legally-binding budgets each cover a five-year period, with the first two leading up to an important 2030 target to cut emissions in half compared to 2018 levels.

However, warnings addressed to the government that Ireland is not on track to comply with the budgets are mounting. 

Last week, the Environmental Protection Agency announced that an “extremely challenging annual reduction” in emissions would be necessary over the coming years to keep alive any chance of maintaining the carbon budget.

Emissions were higher in 2021 than 2020 and dropped only 1.9% in 2022. 47% of emissions allowed under the first five-year cycle were used up in 2021 and 2022, leaving 53% of the budget for 2023, 2024 and 2025. 

Drops in emissions of 12.4% in 2023, 2024 and 2025 are needed in order to stay within the carbon budget, according to the EPA.

The Climate Change Advisory Council in its annual review for 2023 has now added its voice, saying that at the current rate of policy implementation, Ireland will not meet the targets in the first and second carbon periods.

Urgent action needs to be taken immediately and emissions must fall much more rapidly to avoid overshooting the budgeted emissions.

The Council is also once again urging the government to address outstanding gaps in plans to reduce emissions.

Most sectors were told how far they should cut their emissions in the coming years under sectoral emissions ceilings agreed last year. However, the land use sector was not given a target pending a review and an additional 26 megatonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (MtCO2eq) was left unallocated.

Council Chair Marie Donnelly said that the government “must address the gap between climate action and ambition now and start to see emissions fall consistently”.

“Government still has not identified how carbon budgets are to be allocated to sectors with uncertainties relating to the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sectoral emissions ceiling and the unallocated savings for the second carbon budget period,” she said.

Donnelly said the Council is “extremely concerned” that this clarity “may arrive too late to provide the necessary signals to all sectors of their obligations over the period to 2030 and beyond”.

“If we are to achieve our targets this needs to be clarified urgently to enable sectors to prepare their approach to ensure they comply with their targets in the future,” she stated.

“Feasible, effective, and low-cost options for mitigation and adaptation are already available including the roll out of district heating, onshore wind development and community-based restoration of coastal environments, and they must be implemented now.

Strong leadership from Government is required to make the difficult decisions that are needed to deliver systemic change throughout our economy and society.

“Key to this is effective and consistent engagement with communities, ensuring a fair and equitable transition, while building and maintaining public support and action. We all have a role to play.”

The review calls for the government to identify and remove barriers to implementing climate policy by ensuring adequate funding is available and reforming planning systems.

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In the electricity sector, it said the government must conclude work on developing plans for the locations of more onshore wind and must provide more assistance to local authorities processing renewable energy applications.

Ireland should stop using coal for electricity generation as soon as possible and laws to support access to smart metre data must be rolled out to help people control their energy use, the review said.

The Council advised a redesign of motor tax to promote energy efficient vehicles, the electrification of bus fleets, and updating transport schemes like the Taxsaver Commuter ticket and Cycle to Work schemes.

It also recommended a reduction in the number of public parking spaces and the introduction of parking levies at workplaces in Ireland’s main cities to encourage public instead of private transport modes.

Large energy users like data centres should be obliged to supply excess heat to local communities to support district heating schemes, according to the Council.

It said the government should actively support income diversification opportunities for farmers, ensure sufficient supplies of greener forms of fertiliser are available, and urgently consider opportunities for the rollout of feed additives for dairy famers that reduce methane emissions.

“Ireland’s first task is to reduce and ultimately prevent emissions of greenhouse gases. To support this there must be effective and consistent engagement with communities, ensuring there is a fair and equitable transition, while building and maintaining public support and action,” the review outlined.

Ireland, together with other EU members, signed up to the Paris Agreement in 2015, which called for countries to try to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees and not to allow it to surpass 2 degrees.

Currently, the world is around 1.1 degrees warmer than pre-industrial times and is already experiencing impacts of the climate crisis such as heatwaves, droughts and melting ice sheets. Global surface temperatures are expected to exceed 1.5 and 2 degrees unless “deep reductions” are made to emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

The scale of recent changes to the climate are “unprecedented” over hundreds and thousands of years, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and it is “unequivocal” that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Climate change has already caused “substantial damages” and “irreversible losses” to the planet.