This week celebrated the Luas celebrated its 20th birthday. Those urban transport systems, they grow up so fast.

The light rail system has been widely acknowledged as a major success. 

Passenger numbers are expected to rise to a record 50 million in 2024. The Luas is economically viable without a state subsidy and has helped to somewhat limit suburban sprawl.

Given all that, one fact highlighted at a press conference during the week appears all the more baffling: the most recent Luas extension opened in 2017. 

The next one, a four kilometre extension of the Green Line to Finglas, is only set to enter construction in 2031. 

Given building the track will take three to four years, on current estimates there will likely be a gap of almost 20 years between the two projects. 

This means the Luas could celebrate its 30th birthday before it celebrates the opening of the Finglas extension.

To put it mildly, this seems absolutely bizarre.

The Luas is one of the more cost effective infrastructure projects in Irish history. 

Despite the original budget to build the Red and Green line rising from an initial estimate of IRE£250 million, the final cost of €728 million when the two lines were finished in 2004 now looks a relative bargain (although keeping in mind this figure does not include the cost of several significant expansions since).

Ironically, an obsession with trying to find the cheapest build method possible often leads to costs spiralling further as the years drag on.

For an indication of how this can happen, look at the cost estimates for MetroLink (formerly Metro North) for various years.

2015: €2.4 billion

2018: €3 billion

2022: €9.5 billion

Now, part of this was due to the significant redesign the project got in 2018. But the point stands: the longer you wait to build it, the more it will cost. Doubly so for big infrastructure projects.

Why is this relevant? It’s because transport officials have again given a tantalising glimpse at what the Luas network could be.

An indicative map published earlier this week by Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII), the state agency in charge of public transport infrastructure, highlighted multiple potential orbital Luas routes around the city as well as several additional lines.

Future network plans TII TII

Looks great. The catch? Almost all of these new lines are only anticipated in the vague timeline that is “post-2042”.

What’s more, this isn’t even the estimate for them being completed. Referencing the 2022-2042 greater Dublin Area Transport Strategy from the National Transport Authority, TII noted that the plan is for the eight planned additional Luas lines to be “ready for construction post-2042”. In other words, they will likely be operating closer to 2050 if all goes well.

In the period to 2042, the plan is to deliver Luas extensions to Bray, Finglas, Lucan, and Poolbeg.

So in the 25 years between 2017 and 2042, we will have four Luas extensions.

And then in eight years or so from 2042 to 2050, officials think as many as eight Luas lines, several being completely new routes, such as the three possible orbital lines, could theoretically be delivered.

It looks like classic Irish infrastructure planning – make ambitious plans for some far-flung future, while delivering very little in the nearer term.

Why should we build new Luas lines sooner?

There are a few reasons why new Luas lines should be built sooner rather than later, including:

• The Luas removes the need for millions of car journeys every year.
• Consequently, it also helps reduce air pollution.
• It limits urban sprawl and promotes developing housing and more densely-populated neighbourhoods. An example is the south Dublin town of Cherrywood, which is planned to house 25,000 people in 9,000 apartments and homes. This would never have been built (at least not to such a scale) were it not on the Luas line.
• Luas lines promote jobs and tourism by letting people move to work and in and out of the city faster.
• Perhaps most importantly, Luas lines save commuters time. Conceivably, Luas commuters save time not stuck in traffic almost every single day of their lives. 
• As discussed above, large project infrastructure costs have surged in recent years and likely will continue to do so. A Luas line built in 2024 will likely cost a fraction of one built in 2044, even factoring in regular inflation.

So, what’s the hold up?

There are several reasons behind delays to the Luas rollout, including:

• Overly optimistic modelling. The National Transport Authority said in the Dublin 2022 – 2042 Transport Plan transport demand on routes that would be served by an orbital Luas line “can be satisfactorily accommodated by bus”. Given Dublin’s traffic, the unreliability of the bus service and how far wide of the mark Ireland’s population growth estimates have been in recent years, this prediction looks doubtful.
• Ireland tends to be incredibly slow at delivering large-scale infrastructure projects. See – the National Children’s Hospital, MetroLink, etc. This is due to a variety of factors, such as exhaustive consultation rounds often lasting months. These are often carried out multiple times due to political dithering, to continuously tweak projects.
• Local opposition. Look back at most reports of the Luas around the time it was under construction in the early 2000s. It was criticised in the Irish Times for being expensive, late and disconnected, while it was predicted to be “heading for a fiasco” by Fianna Fáil TD Eoin Ryan (while Fianna Fáil was in government overseeing the Luas construction). A 2003 report from RTÉ noted multiple complaints about the “chaos that the construction of the tram system has caused”. Similar complaints have been heard in more recent years against the Luas Green line upgrade to a metro, causing the project to be pushed back.

A common theme with the factors holding back Luas expansion: they don’t tend to stand in the long term.

The cost of construction of the Luas lines has clearly been outweighed by the benefits they provide in the years and decades after.

Annoyances over problems caused during construction are temporary.

Areas initially thought to be too low density to support a Luas often end up with higher populations than expected, as the improved transport makes increased development more viable.

But despite how poor Ireland has been at progressing the Luas network, there is hope.

TII said earlier this week that it is ready to apply for permission for the Finglas line “immediately”.

If it gets political approval to proceed, this could mean construction starting several years earlier than the current prediction of 2031.

“We’re ready to go early, if we’re given the go-ahead and the resources to do it,” said TII chief executive Peter Walsh.

“The last section of the Green line we opened was 2017 and Finglas isn’t due even go to construction until 2031 – we could do it a lot quicker.”

While this injection of urgency is welcome, it should apply to the wider Luas network, not just the Finglas extension.

As the old Chinese proverb goes: “The best time to plant a Luas track was 10 years ago. The second best time is now.”

If you’re 30 reading this, you’ll likely be in your 50s by the time the ‘post 2042’ Luas tracks get built out unless the timeline is sped up. If you’re 40, you’ll be nearing retirement age.

Officials should do the studies. Plan properly – for example, new Luas tracks would ideally be able to upgrade to metro in future, such as the Green Line.

But it’s time for a bit more ambition. Experience has shown we’re unlikely to regret it.