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THE FIRST CASES of a new Covid variant of concern have been detected in Ireland.
The European Centre for Disease Control earlier this month labelled BA.4 and BA.5 as variants of concern, with chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan confirming that two cases of BA.4 were identified in Ireland earlier this month.
What are these variants, what do we know about them, and what type of impact could they have?
BA.4 and BA.5 are sublineages of Omicron (as is BA.2, currently dominant in Ireland and what caused our most recent post-Christmas wave of infection). This means they are not genetically distinct enough from Omicron to be classed as a different variant such as Delta or Alpha, but contain some genetic mutations.
There are many, many more sublineages of Omicron, most of which cause little or no concern, but BA.4 and BA.5 have stood out to scientists. They first emerged in January and February of this year.
The sublineages are believed to be responsible for a renewed wave of infection in South Africa which started in early May. The data currently indicates that this is less severe than its previous record-breaking Omicron wave, and there are even signs it is slowing.
The sublineages have now started to picked up more frequently in Europe, where they account for an increasing proportion of cases in countries like Austria, Germany, and – where it is now dominant – Portugal.
Why is it spreading?
It takes time to learn about new variants, but what’s currently apparent is that BA.4 and BA.5 have the potential to cause another wave of infection through immune escape.
These sublineages are sufficiently different from previous Omicron sublineages that our immune system might not be able to recognise them as well if you’ve already been infected with Omicron – but not anywhere to same extent as when a truly ‘new’ variant previously arrived on the scene, like Alpha, Delta, or BA.1 Omicron.
There is also the basic fact that immunity from previous Omicron waves is starting to wane.
If you haven’t been infected with Omicron, you remain just as susceptible to a breakthrough infection from these sublineages, regardless of which one we’re dealing with.
If you are fully vaccinated and boosted, you will still have strong protection against severe illness.
There is currently no evidence that BA.4 and BA.5 cause more severe illness than previous Omicron sublineages (that data takes time to gather), although it still has the potential to be a debilitating and potentially fatal illness.
There is some evidence to suggest that not only is there an increased chance of immune escape, but the sublineages are also more transmissible.
What does this mean for Ireland?
While just two cases of BA.4 have been detected, Ireland is fully analysing few individual cases to determine with variant is responsible, so it is highly likely it is responsible for more cases than is currently apparent.
If BA.4 and BA.5 have an advantage over BA.2, which by all accounts they appear to, one will eventually become the dominant variant in Ireland, especially when a significant number of protections against the spread of Covid-19 have been removed or made voluntary in Ireland.
Speaking more generally about Europe, the ECDC said the variants “could cause a significant overall increase in Covid-19 cases in the EU/EEA in the coming weeks and months”.
As in previous waves, if Covid-19 case numbers increase substantially, some level of increased hospital and ICU admissions is likely to follow.
How Ireland could fare isn’t yet clear – the ECDC’s warning is clear, that an uptick in infections can be expected.
While some Omicron immunity is waning, there are a lot more people with some level of protection against the variant than when it first arrived in Ireland.
Many people more at risk of severe illness have also received another booster since then. Another factor is that South Africa and Portugal didn’t have as pronounced a BA.2 wave as Ireland did, and BA.2 is more similar to the new variants of concern than BA.1.
Hospitals could remain better protected, and there is no suggestion of new restrictions, but wider societal disruption similar to what was experienced during the BA.2 wave remains a possibility.
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There’s needs to be more articles relating to the impact of restrictions. This is but the tip of the iceberg.
@Kieran Hayes:
Eating disorders have been there long before restrictions and will be there long after.
@Digdeepradioucc: true but the incidence is markedly increased. Along with abuse and neglect. But aside from these the very nature of lockdowns and social isolation reduces life expectancy… https://youtu.be/ptIecdCZ3dg
@Digdeepradioucc: I wonder could some be suffering from the after effects of the virus. Many have complained of loss of smell and taste. That it actually puts them off eating. These after effects could last for weeks/months.
@Eileen Roche: Ah here….
@Eileen Roche: I hope you have the excuse of being drunk…
@Eileen Roche: Eileen, speaking as someone who is living with an eating disorder, I would suggest that you read up, even just a little, on the causation of EDs. Your suggestion is far removed from why and how they actually develop in connection with someone mental well-being.
@Digdeepradioucc: The point is that it appears (and this article could give some more data) that hospitalisations and greatly increased since the pandemic. And you could guess why, but more reporting and more research is needed because there are a lot of negative health impacts caused by lockdowns.
@Eileen Roche:
Isolation,lack of support, reduced medical support and treatment, lack of human contact, loss of employment, social restrictions, covid anxiety.
All of the above, and probably more, will lead to increases in mental health issues, eating disorders, alcohol and drug use and abuse, suicides and more. Also, will likely lead to people who already had these issues and were doing OK regressing and relapsing.
Nothing to do with smell and taste being temporarily lost.
The government should have been preaching preventative measures that help mitigate Covid 19 effects. A healthy diet, Vitamin D, regular excercise etc.
Battering people over the head with statistics of infection and death without giving much needed advice for people to help themselves is a disgrace.
@Mike Ryan: Thank god someone is seeing sense. The nation’s health should be our primary focus. The ‘stay at home’ message is dangerous is many other ways and our government are offering no advice is this regard.
@Mike Ryan: This is the main issue I have with the current approach, it’s full on negative and against basic health needs. Too many people not seeing the bigger picture.
@Mike Ryan: is there evidence for Vitamin D and exercise? Not being smart I’m genuinely wondering. Thanks.
@Maalouf: Firstly, a healthy diet and regular exercise is recommended for everyone. And there is proof that this will generally make for healthier people and stronger people, both physically stronger and a stronger immune system. Which will help fight illness and disease.
The Vit D thing I’m not a hundred per cent on. Early on it was reported in the USA that most Covid infections were in people who were vitamin D deficient. Could be something could be coincidence. For example in Ireland virtually everyone is low on Vitamin D. So most covid patients will be as well.
I personally started taking Vitamin D supplements as there are general benefits to it.
@Jim Lingk: interesting thank you
@Maalouf: vitamin D boost your immune system, as does Vit C and Zinc. Getting your Vit D outside in the daylight is best, it’s a real mood booster
This is a silent epidemic that’s doing so much damage to our population
There’s probably alot of people who would have preferred to take their chances with covid, but hey, government knows best.
@Joe ryan: the hospitals are nearly full at the moment and we are in lockdown. Imagine if everyone was let take there chances and not enough doctors or beds to treat them. They would just die at home slowly sufficating. I don’t agree with all the restrictions at the same time. People’s mental health is really suffering.
Well done for putting an advertisement for Burger King in the middle of the article.
@Brian Ó Dálaigh:
My Google searches for the last 10 or so days were related to art,music,sport,and architecture!
@Kenneth Hayden: Your phone is listening to you!
@Kenneth Hayden: ….. and Burger King. You’ve been outed. Get help for your eating disorder. You are in denial.
Ireland won’t be satisfied until everyone is dead of everything other than Covid… kind of entertaining to watch the madness.
have your say