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A new Covid variant of concern has been detected in Ireland - what do we know about it?

BA.4 and BA.5 were identified by the ECDC as variants of concern earlier this month.

THE FIRST CASES of a new Covid variant of concern have been detected in Ireland.

The European Centre for Disease Control earlier this month labelled BA.4 and BA.5 as variants of concern, with chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan confirming that two cases of BA.4 were identified in Ireland earlier this month.

What are these variants, what do we know about them, and what type of impact could they have?
BA.4 and BA.5 are sublineages of Omicron (as is BA.2, currently dominant in Ireland and what caused our most recent post-Christmas wave of infection). This means they are not genetically distinct enough from Omicron to be classed as a different variant such as Delta or Alpha, but contain some genetic mutations.

There are many, many more sublineages of Omicron, most of which cause little or no concern, but BA.4 and BA.5 have stood out to scientists. They first emerged in January and February of this year.

The sublineages are believed to be responsible for a renewed wave of infection in South Africa which started in early May. The data currently indicates that this is less severe than its previous record-breaking Omicron wave, and there are even signs it is slowing.

The sublineages have now started to picked up more frequently in Europe, where they account for an increasing proportion of cases in countries like Austria, Germany, and – where it is now dominant – Portugal.

Why is it spreading?

It takes time to learn about new variants, but what’s currently apparent is that BA.4 and BA.5 have the potential to cause another wave of infection through immune escape.

These sublineages are sufficiently different from previous Omicron sublineages that our immune system might not be able to recognise them as well if you’ve already been infected with Omicron – but not anywhere to same extent as when a truly ‘new’ variant previously arrived on the scene, like Alpha, Delta, or BA.1 Omicron.

There is also the basic fact that immunity from previous Omicron waves is starting to wane.

If you haven’t been infected with Omicron, you remain just as susceptible to a breakthrough infection from these sublineages, regardless of which one we’re dealing with.

If you are fully vaccinated and boosted, you will still have strong protection against severe illness.

There is currently no evidence that BA.4 and BA.5 cause more severe illness than previous Omicron sublineages (that data takes time to gather), although it still has the potential to be a debilitating and potentially fatal illness.

There is some evidence to suggest that not only is there an increased chance of immune escape, but the sublineages are also more transmissible.

What does this mean for Ireland?

While just two cases of BA.4 have been detected, Ireland is fully analysing few individual cases to determine with variant is responsible, so it is highly likely it is responsible for more cases than is currently apparent.

If BA.4 and BA.5 have an advantage over BA.2, which by all accounts they appear to, one will eventually become the dominant variant in Ireland, especially when a significant number of protections against the spread of Covid-19 have been removed or made voluntary in Ireland.

Speaking more generally about Europe, the ECDC said the variants “could cause a significant overall increase in Covid-19 cases in the EU/EEA in the coming weeks and months”.

As in previous waves, if Covid-19 case numbers increase substantially, some level of increased hospital and ICU admissions is likely to follow.

How Ireland could fare isn’t yet clear – the ECDC’s warning is clear, that an uptick in infections can be expected.

While some Omicron immunity is waning, there are a lot more people with some level of protection against the variant than when it first arrived in Ireland.

Many people more at risk of severe illness have also received another booster since then. Another factor is that South Africa and Portugal didn’t have as pronounced a BA.2 wave as Ireland did, and BA.2 is more similar to the new variants of concern than BA.1.

Hospitals could remain better protected, and there is no suggestion of new restrictions, but wider societal disruption similar to what was experienced during the BA.2 wave remains a possibility.

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    Mute Moorooka Mick
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    Feb 26th 2019, 6:32 AM

    They will not last long with the local ‘happy campers”. They’ll figure out a way of hobbling the sat-tracking and cash-in.

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    Mute Dotty Dunleary
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    Feb 26th 2019, 6:58 AM

    @Moorooka Mick: Not unless the bicycles are made from pure steel :-)

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    Mute DJ François
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    Feb 26th 2019, 7:42 AM

    @Moorooka Mick: they said the same about Dublin bike scheme but it didn’t happen

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    Mute Moorooka Mick
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    Feb 26th 2019, 12:44 PM

    @DJ François:
    You have obviously not lived in Sligo.

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    Mute Donncha
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    Feb 26th 2019, 6:19 AM

    I would warm Sligo Council to give any of the Chinese bike companies that approach them a very wide berth. Just look up Chinese bike mountains on Google Images to see how the “free bike” companies have worked out in China.

    Also, one of them set up in Stockholm at the end of last summer. Unilaterally, I would add as they never asked, they just did it. I’ve yet to see anyone use the bikes (partly I imagine it’s because the app that activates them looks like it was made by a colour-blind 6th class student learning to code). Despite the fact they’re close to unused, they are absolutely riddled with rust only six months later. I reckon they’re death traps at this point if someone hopped on one without a helmet.

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    Mute J.P. Ness
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    Feb 26th 2019, 8:42 AM

    Sligo is too much of a kip to merit this scheme. It really is a bunghole of a place

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    Mute Garreth Byrne
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    Feb 26th 2019, 9:45 AM

    @J.P. Ness: They’d regard you as an asset at the local tourist information office. Failte go Shligig.

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    Mute Brian Ó Dálaigh
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    Feb 26th 2019, 1:29 PM

    @J.P. Ness: I lived in Sligo for over 11 years. Despite not being a native, I very much consider Sligo to be home. Lots of friendly, welcoming, helpful people and, despite its small size, it has so much to offer in terms of music, arts, crafts, surfing, beaches, hiking, cycling trails, mountains, lakes, fishing, pubs, places to eat and festivals. A kip it most certainly is not. What it is, however, is lacking in funding proportional to other areas of the country, though, thankfully, some of that is being addressed finally.

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    Mute john doe
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    Feb 26th 2019, 2:52 PM

    ^^don’t feed the troll ^^

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    Mute Marcus Eugene
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    Feb 26th 2019, 8:19 PM

    @J.P. Ness: Don’t feed the troll

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    Mute Dave Barrett
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    Feb 26th 2019, 7:52 AM

    And while they are looking for free bikes let the old people with empty large houses get out and down size to free up houses for those looking for them. FG take take take.

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    Mute James Wallace
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    Feb 26th 2019, 7:59 AM

    @Dave Barrett: first of all, what has a housing proposal by the government got to do with a bike scheme proposed by a local council? second of all, if the housing downsize scheme ever happens, it will be entirely optional. Go back to bed.

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    Mute John
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    Feb 26th 2019, 8:29 AM

    @Dave Barrett: what’s wrong with older people in council houses downsizing.people are always screaming about the housing crisis but people in social housing don’t want to have to help in any way.they just want to scream BUILD HOUSES………a lot of older people(including my parents)in private housing downsized because of their needs,what’s wrong with people who have enjoyed very very cheap houses.

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    Mute MarkS
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    Feb 26th 2019, 11:14 AM

    @John: bit of a tangent there love.

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    Mute kehe
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    Feb 26th 2019, 7:55 AM

    Will they ever learn? Undocked bikes just end up vandalised and thrown in rivers, ditches, fields etc in any city or town that’s tried the scheme.

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    Mute James Wallace
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    Feb 26th 2019, 8:19 AM

    @kehe: it doesnt happen much in Dublin. Can you name the towns in ireland where it has?

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    Mute Karen Wellington
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    Feb 26th 2019, 9:02 AM

    @James Wallace: does Dublin have an undocked bike scheme? I thought they were all docked.

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    Mute James Wallace
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    Feb 26th 2019, 9:12 AM

    @Karen Wellington: no they have bleeperbike, an undocked scheme. I do agree a docked bike scheme would be preferable if they don’t already have one.

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    Mute Karen Wellington
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    Feb 26th 2019, 10:58 AM

    @James Wallace: didn’t know that, thanks for the info

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    Mute Garreth Byrne
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    Feb 26th 2019, 9:42 AM

    In the mid-1960s student and other utopian radicals persuaded the Amsterdam authority to place ‘white bicycles’ strategically around the city centre. Anybody could use an available bike and leave it at a designated bike rack after use. The scheme lasted a short time. I hope the Sligonian authority has taken the Dutch example into consideration. Waar is mijn fiets?

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    Mute James Wallace
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    Feb 26th 2019, 10:19 AM

    @Garreth Byrne: that was before the days of mobile technology. The bikes these days, like the bleeper bikes in Dublin , require you to register a card and the bike is unlocked using smart technology and an app. No comparison to Amsterdam in the 60s. We should copy Amsterdam in the provision of safe segregated cycle tracks, though. That would work here.

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    Mute FlopFlipU
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    Feb 26th 2019, 9:00 AM

    You will probably find the any bikes that go missing up in Dublin ,them lads using the bikes to escape ,only joking now I have ties there through marriage

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    Mute John
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    Feb 26th 2019, 9:14 AM

    @FlopFlipU: I wish some of the country people would escape from Dublin.might give us a bit more room.ha ha,only joking I have family down the country.

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    Mute Michael Drumm
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    Feb 26th 2019, 8:05 AM

    Shave a madra

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