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WHEN THE BANKING inquiry was set up over a year ago many of its members privately expressed concern that the workload could harm their prospects come election time.
Trying to decipher the events leading up to the collapse of the Irish banking system is no small job. Since December of last year, the inquiry has heard from 128 witnesses in 49 days of public hearings, which finally concluded this week.
On top of this, the committee has also held hours and hours of private meetings deep in the bowels of Leinster House. The committee now has to work on a final report into the banking crisis, which is now due for publication in late January.
With six of the seven deputies on the inquiry all hoping to be part of the next Dáil, what toll has this heavy workload taken on their electoral chances in each of their constituencies?
Here’s a quick run down…
Ciaran Lynch – Labour – Cork South Central
The committee chair was already facing an uphill battle to retain his seat in the constituency of death. Cork South-Central has gone from five seats to four and includes Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin and Michael McGrath (who’s also on the inquiry), as well as Fine Gael’s Simon Coveney and Jerry Buttimer.
Lynch has sought to maintain his profile throughout the inquiry, being its public face in media appearances. His chairmanship has done his chances no harm but they were already remote due to the changes in the constituency and Labour’s fortunes nationally. Of all the inquiry members he is the most at risk of losing his seat.
Pearse Doherty – Sinn Féin – Donegal
One of the inquiry’s best performers, Doherty should have no problem being re-elected primarily because he is based in a Sinn Féin stronghold. Donegal could return two and maybe even three TDs at the general election, including the party’s justice spokesperson Padraig MacLochlainn.
It hasn’t harmed Doherty that he has managed to combine his banking inquiry work with taking a prominent role in some of the big stories of recent months like the IBRC loan controversies.
Michael McGrath – Fianna Fáil – Cork South Central
Another of the inquiry’s best performers, the party’s finance spokesperson is tipped as a future leader of his party. McGrath has maintained a high public profile throughout the inquiry, leading Fianna Fáil’s charge for greater relief for struggling mortgage holders.
Despite battling it out with the committee chair and others in the constituency of death, it would be a bad day for Fianna Fáil is he isn’t returned along with party leader Micheál Martin.
Eoghan Murphy – Fine Gael – Dublin Bay South
The first-time TD is in one of the most Fine Gael constituencies in the country having been elected along with Lucinda Creighton in 2011. She has since quit the party and is tipped for re-election under the Renua banner.
But Murphy should join her in the next Dáil provided he doesn’t fall behind the candidate Fine Gael has picked to oust Creighton, councillor Kate O’Connell. He has not been the inquiry’s star performer, but Murphy has brought a level of detail and knowledge to questioning that others lacked.
Kieran O’Donnell – Fine Gael – Limerick City
O’Donnell shares a constituency with Finance Minister Michael Noonan and both are running for re-election next time out. Noonan has a strong support base in the city and his party colleague will hope to capitalise on his transfers.
O’Donnell is a hard worker on the inquiry, and before that on the Public Accounts Committee. Depending on the mood of voters, he will either return to the Dáil on a wave of pro-government sentiment or lose out to the insurgent left of Sinn Féin and the Anti-Austerity Alliance.
John Paul Phelan – Fine Gael – Carlow-Kilkenny
Phelan was one of three Fine Gael TDs elected in the vast five-seat constituency in 2011. With Phil Hogan gone to Brussels he could stand to benefit from being the only Fine Gael incumbent in the Kilkenny part of the constituency.
But councillor David Fitzgerald put in a strong performance in the recent by-election and has likely knocked on more doors recently, purely because of Phelan’s inquiry commitments. The qualified barrister has been a strong performer during the committee’s public sessions, often following up well with witnesses when colleagues failed to get answers.
Joe Higgins – Socialist Party – Dublin West
The Socialist Party veteran is retiring from politics at the end of this Dáil.
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Sorry to see Joe Higgins go.
The one politician who did his best to warn the public about the impending fall out from the Celtic Tiger property madness.
Sad reflection on Irish society that no one listened and he lost his seat for doing his country a great service.
He did?
News to me.
You might have been too busy pretending to be rich to notice.
What I remember around that time was the councils trying to collect waste charges. What we got after Joe and his ilk got stuck in was a service totally privatized and we’re now paying maybe four times as much as the councils were looking for at the time.
I don’t recall any great speeches about the impending crash from Joe.
As if they weren’t going to be privatised anyway. Oh, and the government promised that the charge would not exceed a fiver. It’s not Higgins fault they lied.
True that Jacob….he was a lone voice in the maelstrom of pocket stuffing. Sad to see him leave politics.
@Alan O’connor. It it news to you? That comes as no surprise since you appear to know sod all about politics other than to constantly chant “Looney Lefty ” in a meaningless way. Higgins has a proud record of unwavering honesty and absolute adherence to the principles he espoused, on foot of which he sought election and won. Rare indeed. It is a matter of concern to me that one with such superficial views has influence over young minds. How’s the Landesdowne road thing going?
EDS do any of your type remember anything.
Will joe the socialist messiah be taking his full pension “entitlement”.
Rashers is your name paddy by any chance?
I hope you don’t take communion with that potty mouth of yours, Maggie.
All politics is local in Ireland, so the real question is what amounts of road, school house and clinic development these TD’s have secured over the last few years?
There has been nothing for Limerick City, if anything things have gone from bad to worse, Noonan will probably keep his seat but Kieran O’Donnell and Jan O’Sullivan are probably screwed, the other seat is Willie O’Dea, might as well face it, he’s got that seat for life!
@AN other, will noonan not carry o’donnell over the line with his transfers? Jan O’ Sullivan will prob lose her seat in favour of Maurice quinlivan of SF. One seat remaining
Hugh ,What will you do when Enda gets his p45 from the electorate,
Well there’s always a market for fairy story’ writers so you should be OK.
Hugh’s big blue book of spin, could be as big as harry potter.
Pearse Doherty 1,000 / 1 on, Joe Higgins should be ok, the rest depends on the lessons learned by the people.
fingers crossed.
Joe Higgins is retiring read above article
I didn’t say he wasn’t retiring, I said he should be ok, (pension )
@Peader, you obviously didn’t read the article and just scrolled down to the comments to have your say, now you’re clutching at straws.
Yea, I’ll bet Pearse has his fingers x that all his supporters feel like this:
“f*k off you American piece of s*^t”
How will he sell that at the next US fundraiser eh?
Think in over Hugh, I can only imagine the SF bashing stories you got from there.
They were all given orders to attack SF. FG are frightened to death of SF taking power.
0 out of 7 bye election wins in this Dail term for SF.
Nothing at all to be worried about. Your link is just politics as usual. Nothing to see here.
Adrian Kavanaghs constituency level analysis puts SF doubling their number of Dail seats in the next GE.
Which will be nowhere near enough to put them into power. Fine by me.
Oh FC – this analysis was based on the Red C poll that you forensically examined yesterday and tried to snatch at any excuse to prove it to be a sham – because it showed raised support for FG. Now you are using it to support that his analysis – which is based on that report puts SF doubling their seats.
You are shameless. Here is the link to the analysis:
And here is what he says:
“My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 29, Fine Gael 55, Sinn Fein 22, Labour Party 14, Independents and Others 38. ”
FF has more seats – F – FKN – F – who wrecked this country has more seats according to the analysis.
Labour party on 14 – now that I doubt will happen.
FG on 55 seats? They have most of their gains (2007 election they won 51)
FF wer obliterated in the last election losing 55 seats – FG look likely to lose 25.
SF have picked up what – 10 seats out of a possible 80?
That says an awful lot FC. It really does.
When the poll was released yesterday, the latest analysis on Adrian’s site was from August. Cheers for posting the link to the new one. SF increasing their representation by over half.
Not to be sneezed at.
Oh I’m sorry did you cherry pick to find his best results for Sinn Fein?
Adrian s analysis was available yesterday, because I posted you the link yesterday.
“Not to be sneezed at.”
That they gained 10 seats out of 80? If they were at 28 seats in the August edition and are down to 22 seats today – then that has to be a worry.
Even FG are up on their pre election seats FC.
“Oh noes, we’ve only increased our popularity by over half”…. said no political party ever.
same as always. I remember the good old days. election coming. arrest a few. oh wait still happening….
Sinister, so am i.
well that is the difference between short and long term planning. FG LABOUR are master’s of short term ‘planning’
I would be the happiest man in Ireland if FG/Labour seats are wiped out…
Cork south Central is not going from a 4 seater too a 5 it is going from a 5 seater too a 4. why not get facts right ?
Because facts don’t matter to blueshirts.
A failed stitch up job on the previous government and Enda himself didn’t perform well in the inquiry, so no surprise if there is a staged collapse of the inquiry.
Staged collapse, you mean a pending general election that has to be called as the Dail has run its term?
Eoin Murphy is Fine Gael isn’t he? Says FF above…
FF and FG are the same, in the same way that Coke and Pepsi are both cola.
2 cheeks of the 1 arse etc.
Both were founded on disregarding a solemn oath as “an empty formula”.
Most of the good men died or were ostracised in the Civil War, as the fight of which group of clue-less gaimbíní quarrelled over who would get to be Britain’s preferred shoe-shine boys.
Guarantee you Churchill and Lloyd-George had many a laugh over it.
Not even Hugh can tell the difference between FF and FG anymore
Seriously talking about “strong performers” about a total waste of tax payers money??
What a depressing line up of pothole fixers.
Anything to do with roads now and they get the ones from N. Ireland to do them now???
Out sourcing of pothole filling…..I wouldn’t be surprised with the present Government.
I don’t know and I don’t care. Some of the Tds mentioned seem to have basic intelligence. They may even be capable of meaningful work. To those who are in Government parties, I’d advise them to jump ship and take their chances as independents – or they could apply to join the Social Democrats. The choice is theirs.
who are these people?
Knowing all the footballers is more important.
smartarses who know where TO get a good pension plan without a) effort b) talent c) brains
So embarrassed to be from m McGrath constituency where he does well an absolute clown who sums up what’s so wrong with the old boys club that is f failed.without doubt he is big enough of a pric; to be a future leader of the embarrassment that is Fianna Fáil
wipe all established parties out,vote independents and small anti austerity parties.
Good old Joe. Went to prison so we could all pay higher waste charges. Got to love those socialists. Really know what they’re at.
Joe has the courage of his convictions. Yes, that particular battle was lost but he stood up on the frontline with his constituents. And I for one, admire a politician who will take a stand against the old school political ‘elite’
Jeez Alan…that must be the stupidest comment ever…and I mean ever. Are you really a teacher or just pretending because if you are I can see why we have problems in the education system.
Ah Alan a bit like his mate Enda not really in touch with reality….
he is a bollox.
“Good old Joe. Went to prison so we could all pay higher waste charges. Got to love those socialists. Really know what they’re at.”
Of course someone going to prison for what they perceive as injustice would seem completely alien concept to you Alan. That doesn’t surprise me in the slightest!
I see dead people.
oh good God cracking comment! !!
How many are going to jail and how many will make millions , the answer is in the question , circle of friends .
Banking inquiry? Surely, you mean banking bluff.
Ya, i’d say they were all working hard to try and keep it going as long as it could go on for so they can squeeze as much money out of it as they can. They should hand it all back now if it ends up a total waste of time, if they have some decency.
What is their policy on immigration, not much difference there then.
3 out of 7
Depends on the number of toilets I suppose?
All finished !!! Or we deserve what we get Ireland
Who actually cares? No one, because you’re going to moan no matter who gets elected, BY YOU!!! Ya gotta love double standards.
have your say