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BORIS JOHNSON IS currently 4,000 miles away in Rwanda as his future as UK Prime Minister and Conservative leader is at growing risk.
We’ve been here several times of course but the decision by Conservative Party co-chairman Oliver Dowden to quit this morning raises the stakes significantly.
Dowden said in a letter addressed to Johnson that “someone must take responsibility” and whilst it was he that was resigning the impression was that Johnson should probably follow.
As several UK commentators have pointed out this morning, Dowden’s backing of Johnson in a June 2019 article co-authored with now ministers Rishi Sunak and Robert Jenrick was crucial in giving Johnson added legitimacy as he bid to replace Theresa May.
That article was also written at a time of Tory strife, with the three men concluding that “only Boris Johnson can save us”.
Now that Dowden has stepped down amidst what he called “a run of very poor results” the question has perhaps flipped to who can save Boris Johnson.
In referencing poor results as if they were a series of football matches under an embattled manager, Dowden was talking about the latest formerly Conservative parliament seats that have been lost to the opposition.
In the last year there have been five by-elections involving outgoing Conservative MPs and the Tories have lost four. The only one in which the party retained seat was in the by-election that took place aftr the murder of Conservative MP David Amess.
The latest two by-election defeats yesterday were to Labour in Wakefield and to the Liberal Democrats in Tiverton and Honiton.
Both votes are bad for the Tories for different reasons and that they have happened together represents the latest crisis in a series of crises that are now coming to define Johnson’s leadership.
As has been well ventilated by now, Johnson’s thumping general election victory in December 2019 was built on the back of keeping Tory seats and flipping a series of previously secure Labour seats in the north of England.
These Labour seats are what’s referred to as the ‘Red Wall’ and Johnson’s clear pro-Brexit message in 2019 resonated in a way that was seismic at the time.
Johnson was therefore feted by Conservatives as a leader who could win otherwise unlikely voters and many dreamed of a string of such election wins.
By-election defeat after by-election defeat has begun to remove that sheen and it is starting to become a serious problem for a Prime Minister whose selling point was of an election winner.
The result in Wakefield will give pause for thought to the northern Tories, elected with relatively slim majorities in 2019, who so far have largely backed Johnson, believing he won them their seats and could do so again.
Polling data since partygate has consistently suggested they were at risk but the concrete reality of a by-election defeat in a Red Wall area will have more of an impact than suggested by the polls.
Labour win Wakefield with a 12.7% swing.
— Theo Usherwood (@theousherwood) June 24, 2022
It’s about to get worse for the Tories.
The message from the result in Tiverton and Honiton is quite different however.
The mostly rural constituency is in Devon in the south of England and it has been a Tory seat since it was created in 1997.
The Lib Dems are often on fertile ground in that part of the country and the Tories will be worried that the win could foreshadow more constituencies flipping that way in a general election.
Last night the Lib Dems overturned a Tory majority of 24,000 and while the scale of that victory is highly unlikely to be repeated in a general election it will make many Conservative MPs nervous.
There are two factors common to both these by-elections that should concern Tory strategists.
One is the scale of tactical voting, with voters seeming to prioritise defeating the Conservative candidate over voting for their preferred one.
It’s the only way. pic.twitter.com/9BqLX6TWQI
— Tim Walker (@ThatTimWalker) June 23, 2022
In Wakefield, the Lib Dems lost their deposit after barely getting 500 votes but the biggest effect was in Tiverton and Honiton.
Labour went from coming second in 2019 with 11,654 votes to third with just 1,564 as voters calculated that the Liberal Democrat was more likely to win.
It will be difficult to repeat that pattern across the country during a general election – it can be much harder to identify the favourite non-Tory candidate when attention is not focused on one seat – but even a moderate increase in tactical voting would spell bad news for the Conservatives.
The other factor is the fact that many Tories simply stayed at home. Some of this will be the impact of a by-election, when turnout is often reduced but the number of Tory votes fell by much more than the decline in turnout.
What this suggests is that the current Conservative tactic of trying to energise the party’s supporters with ‘red meat’, such as transporting asylum seekers to Rwanda or criticising trade unions, is not working.
The priority for most voters remains the cost-of-living crisis, something borne out in various opinion polls.
What does it mean for Johnson?
While Dowden’s decision to step down as party chair does heap pressure on Johnson the departure of senior ministers would be far more damaging.
Right now that does not appear to be happening.
This morning, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak lamented Dowden’s decision to quit but made it clear he would not be doing the same.
I’m sad that my colleague and friend @OliverDowden took the decision to resign this morning.
— Rishi Sunak (@RishiSunak) June 24, 2022
We all take responsibility for the results and I’m determined to continue working to tackle the cost of living, including delivering NICs changes saving 30 million people on average £330
The most likely method for Johnson to be deposed is for the Conservatives’ 1922 Committee to hold a confidence vote in Johnson among party MPs that he loses.
Johnson only survived such a vote less than three weeks ago and the rules of the committee dictate that another such vote cannot be taken for another year.
These rules can be changed however and if there was momentum behind such a change and Johnson was likely to be defeated he might step down first.
If the 1922 Committee does not change the rules and he clings on for another year he would be overseeing a fractious party and facing rebellions in parliament.
Or he can call a general election in the hope he can demonstrate the election-winning ability that brought him to the premiership in the first place.
It would be a high-stakes gamble, especially at a time when the cost of living is soaring, but it may rapidly become his only faint hope of remaining in office.
- With reporting by Press Association
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I do not believe those scaremongering costs for one blink of an eyelid. Propaganda.
Rory
What aspect is scaremongering ?
I’m scared
I work in the industry. The costs are real. Secondly why would they lie. They want to build houses after all. The building industry has ground to a halt. What other proof do you need.
So the gov can’t build houses because it will interfere in the market but the builders want them to interfere in the market for them? I’m confused.
Nick Allen, it is intended to justify high prices and scare off first time buyers. It is classic scaremongering, it suits the developers only to the detriment of buyers.
Rory where’s you evidence. I work in the trade and the costs aren’t far off. People want to believe developers are still creaming it. Unfortunately that’s not the case anymore and is why many developers are holding off till prices rise before starting any houses.
Until negative equity ends, there will be no end to the housing crisis!
US president recognized this 5 years ago – until “Steve and Rachael” are able to move on there isn’t going to be any recovery.
Why would anyone take a variable/ fixed mortgage at the rate the banks here are charging 4 – 6%!! When European lending rates are at less than 2% – why would anyone take on the subsidizing of tracker mortgage holders!
I think it’s Rachel and Steve
Hmmm.. It’s Steve and Rachel
Rachel & Steve
The most unforgivable thing about the housing national emergency is the fact that it was avoidable. All it took was joined up thinking and a plan which benefitted the 99% rather than the 1%. But FG/labour left it up to the almighty free market, and now look where we are…..
And what was that plan?
So how was it avoidable? What was the joined up thinking they didn’t do? I remember when the ERSI pointed out the housing would hit a crisis a few years ago and.people were laughing about how ridiculous that was and it was just talking up a boom. The general public didn’t see the need for investment in property then when it could be done. Politicians would have had to fight very hard to push that. Public pressure both ways influence policy
It wasn’t anything to do with the free market. It was cronyism plain and simple, which is the absolute antithesis of the free market.
Kal, they could have listened to the ESRI’s advice on the matter. They didn’t.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THWbrFy5NWM
If you ever saw made up figures they are the ones above, absolute rubbish. Check with any builder, 8.200 Euro per house sales, and marketing. plus many many more made up rubbish. Can a real BUILDER without any bias please tell me I am right… This article is on the sindo quoting the figures for a build site with 30 houses upwards!
Alan, nowhere in that report does it say that we were going to have a housing crisis.
It’s from 2000.
The housing crisis has been caused by the lack of credit to developers over the past few years, due to many being greedy and thinking that the boom would last forever.
Also, coming from the Construction industry, many of these smaller developers had no experience in the industry and had no idea about the quality assurance that is required.
For Connelly, I’m with Mark and Kal here.
What was this joined up thinking you mentioned?
Your comment seems like a lot of rhetoric and hyperbole, but no substance to the comment at all, simply a thumb fishing exercise.
# John Clark. That 8200 sales and marketing cost includes doing up show houses. I looked over the figures and there not far off the Mark. I am a builder and people still think you can get a house built for 75 euro for a square foot. Those days are gone. New building regs have pushed that way up. Airtightness, higher insulation, higher spec heating systems, building compliance etc all add to cost. People need to realise that the builders that priced undercost to keep going are now gone under. Good value is still there but realistic prices are the norm now.
all the materials builders use are the cheepers and low quality in any case. period.
Eduard. There is no such thing as low quality materials. If a builder does bad work it won’t be long before the client or architect pulls him up on it. Bad builders soon get found out
Ah you could get 3 of these shoeboxes for the price of one traveller specific house.
At this pace when all houses are built they might not be needed!!!! or maybe no one will be able to afford them!!!
The only solution in my point of view is the Government setting a non-profitable building society and releasing agricultural land for housing purpose. But I am afraid this will never happen!! as most of them are landlords and have plenty of interest to keep things as they are.
Hate the way builders skimp out on front gardens
They want to set up a BANK. Amazing ! They have the AiB and no one wants to buy it. The banking industry worldwide is on it’s knees.
And cut tax on housing. Sure where could it go wrong?
I don’t believe this propaganda from a vested interest for a second.
Off you go and build some houses then. Let us know how it goes.
A builder/developer will build a modest house in Ireland for roughly a hundred euro per square foot.that is also producing a handsome wage to the builder/developer.if the average house is 1,200 square foot that’s say 120000 euro plus land plot and fees,you should really be selling at 200/220k mark.so how are they expecting another 100k extra per unit.pure greed again has set in
@dickdastardly – no, you won’t. I price houses all day long, and I’m neither in CIF nor SCSI, so I have no axe to grind one way or the other.
A client of mine got a quote for a built in Meath yesterday at €142/sq – and that was €40sq ft BELOW what his bank EXPECTED.
Current pricing per m2 is €1300 – €1600 (€130 – €160/ft2)
Really John. I was recently quoted upwards of €50k for a small 12sq m kitchen extension on a 3 bed semi in Dublin. That was not including the kitchen. Just a builders finish. It is pure greed on the builders behalf!
I built a 4 bedroom story and a half detached house, 2500 sqf with a detached 2 car garage on a half acre site at the height of the boom for 250k. All internal block walls and bison slabs. Granted the site was slightly cheaper than 57k ( half that price ). Built by direct labour and includes all associated legal and architect fees. There’s no way it would cost a developer 330k to build a timber framed shoe box on a 1/4 acre site.
Did you read the article? They didn’t say they cost 330k to build. You also didn’t have to pay employer prsi, pension, sick leave etc… Regulations have increased greatly so building standards are both higher and more costly. Were you labourers in Dublin where wages are higher then the rest of the country?
People really need to learn how to apply their experience.
My apologies, I could have sworn the story started with ‘Builders need more that 330,000 to construct a single house in the greater Dublin area’. Take their margin out its still way too much for what the end buyer is getting. I didn’t pay employer prsi, pension, sick leave etc (although I’m fairly confident neither does any other labourer in Dublin receive sick leave). All those costs were built into the price I received from each tradesman. Regulation and especially standards haven’t risen that much to justify such a cost. A 3bedroom 1200 sqf timber frame house on a 1/4 acre site would not cost this to construct as a one off never mind on a site of 30+.
@Padraich – I’m sure you did. As did I (2007). How a 9 year old price is even remotely relevant escapes me.
@PMcL … well done .. avoid financial predators … put your future in good hands … YOUR OWN. Starter homes in France €160,000 including site.
Only long term Irish solution is a Referendum on “Right2home” like in German Constitution else your kids and grand kids will continue to be abused by financial predators into the future ..
I agree John. Everything is cheaper now due to the recession.
Agreed NK62F
Nice margin for building one house!
11% on risking 300k and a 10 year liability seems like a good margin to you? I take it you don’t run a bussiness
@Dominick – will you give me €330k on that basis, so I can build, seeing as you have the inside track on margins ?
This headline is not very accurate. The cost of building a home is based on cost per metre squared. The developer should already own the land. Maybe they’re over estimating the value of land
If a developer can get X amount for a house and costs for him are cut. He’s not going to reduce the price. He’ll still charge X amount. The only benefit will be to developer who’ll trouser the profit.
But at least he’ll actually build a house and add to the housing stock which will help house someone and maybe put some downward pressure on rents.
Build outside Dublin who in their right mind would want to live in that shit hole
People with jobs there, presumably.
Plenty of rednecks, still smarting, yet humbled!
Only for the rednecks the old Jackeens would starve to death .
Number of nice 2 storey log houses available prepackaged, finished within 3 months, average 65k , so why cant i have one? Planning, Bribes and the price of sites? Controlled by others.
Buy a house are you crazy :)
Poor, poor developers. Someone should have start a charity to help these poor unfortunates, or at least a collection, maybe pass around an ashtray in the pub?
The public good has to come into play. Agricultural land around our cities has to be compulsory purchased at agricultural land prices. Tough on some of the farmers but necessary if the lives of an entire generation is not to be blighted and destroyed. 57 000 per acre is not remotely sustainable. The farmer’s will have to be faced down in court if necessary. The money for cpo’s would be found for motor ways, it can be found for houses. Also zero rate vat for 10 years on building house’s, police it carefully so it’s not abused. Also the professions can do their part by reducing charges. If not introduce them to the stick.
Yes seizing land off people seems really fair. Can’t see any constitutional issues there. The land zoned is expensive so you also want to see zoning laws massively altered too. No problems there either.
Anthony
You’re talking complete rubbish. You can’t force farmers to fund building of houses which is effectively what you are suggesting. Furthermore why should the professional fees be reduced? Lawyers and engineers spent a lot if time educating themselves and deserve a return. Your left wing fantasies are the things that would ruin our economy
No it’s lawyers and their inflated sense of themselves that ruin an economy
Beal Bocht
Great choice of name, very apt
When domestic rates were abolished they introduced a prepayment fee on new builds now that household tax is back this prepaid fee should go.
Part of the cost is “Sales & Marketing” at €8200 per home. We are told, in a comment, that this includes fitting out a showhouse. So, for a 35 home development, the “Sales & Marketing” cost is over €280k? That would suggest that every home is being fitted out as a showhouse…and that all the fixtures and furniture used is scrapped once the house is sold. Nothing is ever re-used elsewhere, nothing is ever sold on, every house is fully fitted out?
Just one of the falsehoods spouted by those with a vested interest in keeping house prices at ridiculous levels. This is Dublin, a minor city, not London or Berlin. Everything in Dublin is over-priced because those who control such things keep it so. There is no real competition, just cosy co-operation. The rich are getting very much richer and the rest can go hang. And government gives every appearance of complicity. The only wonder is that more people don’t leave.
Pathetic.
Comment, above, deleted. Guess the truth hurts.
Joseph your talking through your hat. Auctioneers charge 1.5 to 2 percent per sale. At cheapest that’s 5k per house. There might be 2 house types so say 30k per show house. That’s another 2k per house. Were at 7k now. Brochures, newspaper advertising extra. Large sign front of site extra. 8200 very accurate. Enough said. You don’t know what your talking about
https://youtu.be/huXDlLFQ4Aw – A criminal act, in some cases knowingly so, has taken place to thousands of families and purchasers of properties in this country, whilst state authorities have failed to act to date, including the Fire Brigade and An Garda Siochana – Longboat quay, Belmayne, the Orchard, Airside, Swords, Newbridge, Portarlington, etc – this is a ticking time bomb!
Only long term solution is a Referendum on “Right2home” like in German Constitution else your kids and grand kids will continue to suffer from financial predators into the future ..
https://www.change.org/p/irish-government-call-for-referendum-on-right2home-in-ireland
Neuville-Kepler62F
A starter hoe in France vs Ireland are probably the same. A starter home in each country’s capital don’t match. You wouldn’t even expect to build an Irish house in Paris and their regs are a lot ore relaxed than ours.
The local authorities should build some council houses. It worked in the 70s why cant they do it now.
I posted a comment earlier and it’s been deleted. Why?
Proposal 6: let the working mortgaged taxpayer fund it.
Sorry to troll but thought this was worth a watch – only 28 minutes but very damning of the construction built in Ireland, especially during the celtic tiger era, one would say criminal! – here is the video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LHGwwlC8rs
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Couple of things:
- Margin that developers put can be limited by competition only- question is why there is so little conpetition?
- There is housing crisis for decades in Ireland and what they offer is to cut vat to 9% why not to 0%?
- Dont forget that government is punishing all developers with obligation of selling percatage of apartments to social unemployed families.. Why cheap and compactable houses are given to them? In new zealand and usa they r testing such housing, costs start 30k and they can be built on 1-2 weeks.. Why its not here?
- aqusition costs seem to be quite high, its another cost that government is causing
Use the above tips and problwm is sorted in 1-2 years
have your say