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File photo of UK prime minister Theresa May. Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire/PA Images

Brexit will be bad for UK under any scenario - report

The economic impact assessment showed growth would be lower under a range of potential scenarios.

THE UK GOVERNMENT is under pressure to publish its latest Brexit analysis after a leaked internal report said Britain would be worse off whatever deal it strikes with the EU.

The economic impact assessment, drawn up for the Brexit ministry and seen by the BuzzFeed News website, showed growth would be lower under a range of potential scenarios.

The leak comes as Prime Minister Theresa May prepares to fly out on a three-day trade mission to China and as parliament’s upper House of Lords begins scrutinising the EU (Withdrawal) Bill, a key plank of Brexit legislation.

The January 2018 study, titled “EU Exit Analysis”, examined three of the most plausible Brexit scenarios.

If found that if the UK remained in the European single market, growth would be 2% lower over the next 15 years compared to current forecasts.

Under a comprehensive free trade agreement with the European Union, growth would be 5% lower, it said.

And if London and Brussels end up with a “no deal” scenario and revert to World Trade Organisation rules, growth would be reduced by 8% over the same period, the report said, according to BuzzFeed News.

Responding to the leak, a government source said officials across the ministries were undertaking “a wide range of ongoing analysis”.

“An early draft of this next stage of analysis has looked at different off-the-shelf arrangements that currently exist,” the source said.

“It does not, however, set out or measure the details of our desired outcome – a new deep and special partnership with the EU.

It also contains a significant number of caveats… significantly more work needs to be carried out to make use of this analysis.

Opposition Labour lawmaker Chris Leslie, part of the Open Britain group – the continuity Remain campaign from Britain’s 2016 referendum on EU membership – urged the government to make its assessment public.

“The government must now publish their analysis in full, so that MPs and the public can see for themselves the impact that Brexit will have and judge for themselves whether it is the right thing for our country,” he said.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chairman of the pro-Brexit European Research Group of MPs from May’s governing Conservative Party, said the findings were “highly speculative”.

Meanwhile parliament’s foreign affairs scrutiny committee said Britain’s diplomatic network was spread too thinly and needed to be bolstered to cope with Brexit.

The panel of MPs said British representation in EU capitals, particularly Berlin and Paris, needed to be significantly increased to help maintain influence in Europe.

© – AFP 2018

Read: Ireland will get two extra MEPs because of Brexit

Read: UK could get a special trade deal with the EU after Brexit – Macron says

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    Mute Darren Norris
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    Jan 30th 2018, 7:48 AM

    That was clear from day one anyway

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    Mute Kevin McDonnell
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    Jan 30th 2018, 8:06 AM

    Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chairman of the pro-Brexit European Research Group of MPs from May’s governing Conservative Party, said the findings were “highly speculative”

    This is a clear example of cognitive bias – trying to twist data into your existing theory when it clearly doesn’t fit (AKA bashing a square peg into a round hole)
    The farcical thing is, there is no data that the Brexiteer’s can point to in order to dispute it (cos there is none) only a wishlist and fairy tales
    These guys are leading their country to the poor house (in the face of all evidence) in order to achieve some pipe dream of Britain……Its beyond belief …….

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    Mute Gus Sheridan
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    Jan 30th 2018, 10:09 AM

    @Kevin McDonnell: its Ireland staying in the crooked EU will be the poor relation, not Britain

    44
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    Mute Marc Power
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    Jan 30th 2018, 10:29 AM

    @Gus Sheridan: gus…. could you explain how Ireland will be poorer staying in a large trading block that has helped transform our country from one of Europe’s poorest to one of the world’s richest countries in 40 years? Maybe the type of economics and business im familiar with didn’t cover your expertise

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    Mute Gus Sheridan
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    Jan 30th 2018, 11:04 AM

    @Marc Power: they are the country that takes the majority of our food produce, meat etc, the EU is a superstate that will continue to dictate how we run our country. Our budget has yo be seen by the Germans before we see it. What little semblance of neutrality will be brushed aside when we join the EU state army. We voted to join the EEC, to enable free trade, not the EU superstate run by Germany and France. If the UK economy suffers, so will we.

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    Mute Chris Kirk
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    Jan 30th 2018, 12:17 PM

    @Gus Sheridan: Show us ssome evidence please that Ireland will be poorer for staying in the EU.

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    Mute Cowboy Ted
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    Feb 1st 2018, 2:31 PM

    @Gus Sheridan:
    We were a country just above third world status when we joined the EU, now we are one of the richest countries in the world.
    Maybe you miss the days of church led poverty stricken country but lets just the rest of us don’t.

    Go here and try and find a country that has out preformed us since 1973:
    https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/usa/ireland?sector=GDP+per+capita+%28Dollars%29&sc=XE34#tbl

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    Mute Sean Murphy
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    Jan 30th 2018, 8:03 AM

    There may be short term pain but long term gain.

    86
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    Mute Kevin McDonnell
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    Jan 30th 2018, 8:08 AM

    @Sean Murphy: Can you point to any serious* analysis to prove that?? Things just don’t happen because we wish it

    * = actual serious research, not the daily mail or sun

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    Mute Shane Gleeson
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    Jan 30th 2018, 8:12 AM

    @Sean Murphy: No there won’t. You can’t replace the common market with trade deals with random countries half way around the world.

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    Mute Maurice Bourke
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    Jan 30th 2018, 8:18 AM

    @Kevin McDonnell:
    Afp here are citing buzzfeed.

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    Mute Kevin McDonnell
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    Jan 30th 2018, 8:31 AM

    @Maurice Bourke: They are citing a report by Whitehall that buzzfeed is quoting – the analysis was not done by buzzfeed itself.

    And even if this report does not exist (the fact that many people who would see the report have commented on it suggests that it does) it is consistent with all the available serious* analysis on the impact of Brexit …….

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    Mute Peter King
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    Jan 30th 2018, 8:57 AM

    @Kevin McDonnell: report covers next 15 years. How can you consider that short term?

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    Mute Chris Finn
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    Jan 30th 2018, 9:13 AM

    @Sean Murphy: eh the report is for the next 15 years……

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    Mute Michael Kelly
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    Jan 30th 2018, 9:45 AM

    @Sean Murphy: More than likely the other way around.. Take Capital Punishment for 1.( I Do hope they make it Public,)
    & does anyone know whats going to happen to the CHUNNEL..?
    “It took just under six years and 13,000 workers to build the Channel Tunnel. The total cost came at an eye-watering £4.65 billion which would be the equivalent of £12 billion in today’s money.” Won’t be used as much I’d presume..?

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    Mute martobaby
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    Jan 30th 2018, 8:01 AM

    Brexit has turned into an absolute mess.. can you imagine Boris and Mogg in change if May goes !

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    Mute oh i dunno
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    Jan 30th 2018, 10:06 AM

    @martobaby: i think thats going to happen. Then we’ll see what a disastet brexit is going to be as no potential trading partner would ever take those two serious

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    Mute Mick Tobin
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    Jan 30th 2018, 11:19 AM

    @martobaby: Brexit was always going to be a mess. But the question is when she goes, before or after a deal is struck. There’s been speculation that she’ll certainly go after a deal. That’d leave Boris in charge of seeing through the final phase. However if the backbenchers are successful in ousting her earlier then it’ll be Jacob trying not to strike a deal. It’s not unlikely and it’d be pitiful.

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    Mute Colette Kearns
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    Jan 30th 2018, 7:59 AM

    Well the EU will make dam sure of that, god forbid it should work for the brits, the unelected leaders wouldn’t want that at all!

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    Mute alphanautica
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    Jan 30th 2018, 8:09 AM

    The Brits are losing a lot and they decided to lose it.
    It makes no sense that they should moan about all they are losing because they decided to leave the EU and it’s the EUs fault. The Brits decided to leave, they aren’t getting thrown out.

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    Mute Kevin McDonnell
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    Jan 30th 2018, 8:17 AM

    @Colette Kearns: How it it EU’s fault????

    Britain doesn’t even know what Britain wants………How do you negotiate effectively with a partner who hasn’t a breeze what he / she is looking for?

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    Mute Gus Sheridan
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    Jan 30th 2018, 10:11 AM

    @alphanautica: we should leave the EU, we voted to join te EEC and not a European super state

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    Mute Hugh Fogerty
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    Jan 30th 2018, 8:58 AM

    This report was carried out by the same economists that predicted ‘doom and gloom’ immediately Britain decided to leave(emergency punitive budget, interest rate rises) yes the currency dropped but has now stabilised. It is important to Ireland that the British economy remains strong as they are our biggest customer. If their economy does deteriorate so will ours, instead of slagging off the UK and sucking up to those that want to control the Federal state of Europe we should be encouraging them to give the UK a fair deal, it will be in our economic benefit. I wonder who will support us when they decide that we will not be allowed set our own tax rates including Corporation tax.

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    Mute Kevin McDonnell
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    Jan 30th 2018, 9:40 AM

    @Hugh Fogerty: I hope the UK does have a strong economy. I will not get any joy out of watching their economy struggle (nor will my wallet)
    But they seem to be doing everything to drag down their economy for the sake of some nationalist ideology.
    In my opinion, its not about giving the UK a good deal or not, but making the best deal possible withing the laws and rules of the single market.
    For example, the UK wants to leave single market and customs union, at the same time they want no border infrastructure with ROI. How do you have a market and customs difference without a border – I mean, what do they want themselves?????

    29
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    Mute Hugh Fogerty
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    Jan 30th 2018, 10:07 AM

    @Kevin McDonnell: I read both the Uk and Irish papers, listen to the UK and Irish news on TV, they report the Brexit story completely differently, I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle. People say that if Cameron had got something on his begging trip to the the EU this whole thing would not have happened, I suspect the way the EU is heading, towards a federal superstate that will be governed by dictatorial powers that someone would have said “Stop” , maybe not the politicians of any particular country but the people.

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    Mute Gus Sheridan
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    Jan 30th 2018, 10:13 AM

    @Hugh Fogerty: well said and so true

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    Mute David Knight
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    Jan 30th 2018, 10:29 AM

    @Kevin McDonnell: I am not sure that Britain wants a borderless Ireland. The core Brexiteers, including the DUP, want all of their borders re-inforced, so whats said during the negotiation stages can be taken with a pinch of salt. I agree with most people commenting here, the whole thing is a shambles.

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    Mute John Hagin Meade
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    Jan 30th 2018, 10:33 AM

    @Hugh Fogerty: “I wonder who will support us when they decide that we will not be allowed set our own tax rates including Corporation tax”.

    We were given tax autonomy if Lisbon mk 2 was passed by the Irish people. It did pass. If the EU try to remove our tax autonomy then the result of Lisbon mk 2 must be set aside as it’s terms would be altered without a new Irish referendum to approve the change. If there was a new referendum on that issue, I do not believe it would pass. That would not please the EU.

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    Mute Hugh Fogerty
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    Jan 30th 2018, 11:38 AM

    @John Hagin Meade: I fully appreciate that about the Lisbon treaty, I suspect what they will do is change the rules by the back door. They will do some sweetheart deal for five or ten years and then then common EU tax rates will apply, Germany and the EU is looking at the longer picture. Treaties have been changed before without referendums, watch this space.

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    Mute DJ François
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    Jan 30th 2018, 8:04 AM

    In other news pope found to be catholic, bear defecatory habits are arboreal

    49
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    Mute alphanautica
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    Jan 30th 2018, 7:48 AM

    Jacob Rees Mogg is highly speculative

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    Mute oh i dunno
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    Jan 30th 2018, 10:03 AM

    And watch the brexitloons try to debunk this

    16
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    Mute Ramón Nomar
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    Jan 30th 2018, 8:56 AM

    The voted to leave, that’s their problem. They mustn’t get any deal as a EU country. Rules are rules.

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    Mute Hugh Fogerty
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    Jan 30th 2018, 10:11 AM

    @Ramón Nomar: yes but who makes ‘the rules’ Germany and France, these rules are being made up as they go along, yesterday was a prime example when the EU negotiator set out the stall for the transition period. It took 10 minutes for all the ministers to agree it. Where was the discussion on such an important issue.

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    Mute Gus Sheridan
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    Jan 30th 2018, 10:15 AM

    @Ramón Nomar: its our problem too as we will suffer if their economy contracts, think about it!

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    Mute David Knight
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    Jan 30th 2018, 10:32 AM

    @Hugh Fogerty: In fairness the EU have been clear and consistent throughout the process, so it is much easier to get the agreement of the group of EU ministers. Certainly easier than it is for Britain, who have a divided cabinet, a divided ruling party, a divided opposition, and a divided country. Putin must be on the floor laughing…

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    Mute Johnnathan Biskalero
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    Jan 30th 2018, 8:45 AM

    Stay in the EU…..who wants disgusting nation state democracy…..fcuck that I want a tyrannical regime not answering to nobody……EU is great for the kids and family……EU EU …..more EU less democracy…..yeeeah…

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    Mute Kevin McDonnell
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    Jan 30th 2018, 8:51 AM

    @Johnnathan Biskalero: What?

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    Mute Rob
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    Jan 30th 2018, 9:03 AM

    @Johnnathan Biskalero: EU obviously don’t get it.

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    Mute oh i dunno
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    Jan 30th 2018, 10:09 AM

    @Johnnathan Biskalero: bit early to be drinking.

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    Mute Johnnathan Biskalero
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    Jan 30th 2018, 1:07 PM

    @Johnnathan Biskalero: guys it was sarcastic comment……lol…..lighten up !!

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    Mute Johnnathan Biskalero
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    Jan 30th 2018, 1:08 PM

    @Kevin McDonnell: sarcasm…….

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    Mute Johnnathan Biskalero
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    Jan 30th 2018, 1:10 PM

    @oh i dunno: not drinking at all…..as I said it was a sarcastic comment……the EU is exactly what I said above………

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    Mute Johnnathan Biskalero
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    Jan 30th 2018, 8:47 AM

    What are the main benefits of the EU ?

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    Mute Johnny Bellew
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    Jan 30th 2018, 10:34 AM

    @Johnnathan Biskalero: Free trade.

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    Mute Steve Austin
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    Jan 30th 2018, 8:42 AM

    It’s not like anybody warned this.

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    Mute Waterford Just shoot me
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    Jan 30th 2018, 8:25 AM

    Brexit Definition : self harm at its worse https://www.facebook.com/Oreillydavid/videos/10215750088244982/

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    Mute Alois Irlmaier
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    Jan 31st 2018, 2:28 AM
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    Mute Gus Sheridan
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    Jan 30th 2018, 10:16 AM

    Yes kick the EU out before its too late

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    Mute Dazz
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    Jan 30th 2018, 1:34 PM

    They shot themselves in the foot and are trying to cut the wound out with a huge knife and they’re wondering why it’s not getting any better.

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    Mute Alois Irlmaier
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    Jan 31st 2018, 2:39 AM

    @Dazz: Blinded by arrogance.

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    Mute Tommy Whelan
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    Jan 30th 2018, 11:06 AM

    Load of rubbish . Scaremongering nothing more . What happen to all the doom and gloom that was ment to happen when article 50 was triggered . In 5 yrs time people will be wondering what all the fuss was about .

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    Mute Francis Devenney
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    Jan 30th 2018, 11:56 AM

    @Tommy Whelan:To answer your question I would point to the fact that they have already dropped from 5th to 11th place in the Economic rankings

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    Mute Desmodromic
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    Jan 30th 2018, 10:30 AM

    Months ago a Teagasc economist said that the various Brexit outcomes vary only in the degree of harm to our economy. The Brits are only now doing the impact assessment? WTF!

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    Mute Jonathan Nolan
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    Jan 30th 2018, 9:39 AM

    Brexit bad under any scenario!? No shite Sherlock

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    Mute James Mc Loughlin
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    Jan 30th 2018, 11:02 AM

    The English people were sold a pig in a poke..They should be afforded another ballot

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    Mute Patricia Boland
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    Jan 30th 2018, 3:35 PM

    @James Mc Loughlin:
    No. They voted to leave the EU for political reasons (control of their own affairs and immigration) rather than economic, that decision stands.
    Any future ballet will be on the final deal, take it or leave it – staying in the EU is no longer an option.

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    Mute marian
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    Jan 30th 2018, 9:21 AM

    Kick them out already!!!

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    Mute Alois Irlmaier
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    Jan 31st 2018, 2:12 AM

    The EU exists because of the WTO? Being in the EU is like not being in the WTO. So would it not be better not to join the WTO after Brexit???

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