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MANY BREXIT COMMENTATORS believed that we would have a clearer picture of what Brexit will look like by today.
Those predictions have not really been borne out, despite the delivery of a key speech by the British Prime Minister and the publication of an important document by the European Union.
We do have the starting negotiation positions from both the EU and the UK – but right now, all we can see are differences.
On Wednesday, the European Commission published draft text of what it is calling a Withdrawal Agreement. It is 118 pages long and includes a controversial protocol on Northern Ireland which is already a huge sticking point for the UK. In the absence of a deal, it outlines how Northern Ireland would become part of the EU customs union to ensure no hard border will be established on the island.
British Prime Minister rejected that out of hand and said there would be no breaking up of the UK’s common market or a border running down the Irish Sea.
On Friday, then, she reiterated her support for the Good Friday Agreement and the peace process, ensuring that there would be no hard border on the island of Ireland. Her proposals for how to do that – by way of either a customs partnership or special customs arrangement with specific exemptions for Northern Ireland – were the same as those dismissed by the EU last August.
So, where does that leave us?
With a lot of work for both Barnier and May to do. Here’s what’s due to happen over the coming year…
Monday 5 March and Tuesday 6 March
DUP and Sinn Féin leaders Arlene Foster and Michelle O’Neill will travel to Brussels to meet chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier.
The DUP said on Friday its delegation’s message on Tuesday would be clear:
We want to see a sensible Brexit that works for everyone.
MEPs Matt Carthy and Martina Anderson are also part of Sinn Féin’s group which will be carrying a different aim on Monday. McDonald has said:
“Sinn Féin has consistently called for the North to be designated special status… Since the referendum, the Tory government has repeated their rhetoric of no hard border across Ireland and failed to bring forward a workable solution to how this would be achieved.
“Prime Minister May agreed principles to avoid a hard border in December. On Wednesday, she rejected her own deal. It is clear that the British Government approach to Brexit, once thought of as merely disorganised, has been exposed as destructive.”
22-23 March
There will be an EU summit in Brussels which will see Barnier given the mandate to negotiate.
Speaking this week, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said he is preparing for this March European Council, which is expected to agree new Negotiation Guidelines.
“Progress on the Withdrawal Agreement published this week will be important in the context of that next phase of work.”
Over the two days, the European Council, in an EU 27 format, will “review the state of the negotiations following the United Kingdom’s notification of its intention to leave the EU and adopt additional guidelines”.
Those additional guidelines will be added to the draft text which was published on Wednesday and will focus on the framework for the future relationship between the UK and the EU.
After the European Council and European Parliament (particularly its Brexit Steering Group) has their say on the Withdrawal Agreement, it will be “transmitted to the UK for negotiation”.
The UK doesn’t have any similar document, other than May’s three keynote speeches given over the past 18 months.
Over these seven months, UK and EU negotiators will work to reach a deal on the terms of the UK’s orderly exit from the Union.
Remember, discussions about their future relationship can only be done in framework terms, rather than in real, legal deals. Those agreements can only be made in full once Britain has left completely.
The EU has set a ‘by October’ deadline for it to agree with the UK a final legal text of the Withdrawal Agreement. That is so it can be ratified by the European Parliament, the Council and the UK.
This is Barnier’s plan:
At the end of the negotiation period, the Commission will present a proposal for an agreement to the European Parliament and the Council, taking into account the framework of the future relationship of the UK with the EU.
The European Parliament must give its consent, by a vote of simple majority, including Members of the European Parliament from the UK. The Council will conclude the agreement, acting by a qualified majority representing 72% of the 27 Member States, i.e. 20 Member States representing 65% of the EU27 population. The UK must also ratify the agreement then, again according to its own constitutional arrangements.
18-19 October
As per the above, its hoped that a final draft of the agreement will be ready for this EU summit in Brussels.
It needs to be done as early as this (remember, the UK leaves on 30 March 2019, which is five months from this date) so that countries can get the required sign off from their parliaments about the EU-UK economic package.
13-14 December
There will be another EU summit in Brussels which could act as a cushion if everything isn’t in place by 18 to 19 October.
But, these deadlines would be getting extremely tight if that is the case.
21-22 March 2019
There are no details for this EU Council meeting as yet. And you’d need a seriously good crystal ball to be able to predict what will be discussed. Definitely one to mark in the diary though.
30 March 2019
The UK leaves the European Union. Deal or no deal.
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Wonder how much was spent on the auld coffee and scone… That be another great useless fact to know.
The stress levels are probably high in the dail as our bunch of overpaid, incompetent, sub standard politicians are attempting to do jobs way over their heads and which they are totally unfit for.
If only the EU cared enough to fix our homeless crisis and health crisis as well, then our waste of space politicians could just sit back, relax and collect their unjustifiable various wide ranging financial payments.
@Adrian: the EU or our government could – ban smoking – immediate jail for a month for any one caught smoking. Selling or smuggling cigarettes one year jail. Limit everyone to 1 pint or 1 glass of wine per week. Ban sweets chcolates, cakes. Ban cars in city centres. Everyone must walk 10km per week, cycle 50km. Monthly check ups to prove their weight fitness, blood pressure and cholesterol is at recommend es levels or face fines or lose their TV, WiFi or car until they are healthy
@David Kelly: Wow, not at all fascist, eh?
@Adrian: When are you running for a seat Adrian? You seem to have it all sussed out.
Slow news day ZZZZZzzzzz
However much was spent in the dail bar, they probably puts indirect expense claims in for all this. I’d imagine when the ministers of state went to pascal a few weeks back about their hotel costs, he probably said, i can’t give you hotel expenses but if you claim it under say admin…. Dail bar pints are probably included in their food and drinks expense claims. Cigarettes maybe in the entertainment expense claims.
@Adrian: probably, imagine, probably, probably.
Great research.
@Chin Feeyin: ok. Its guaranteed they do it.
@Chin Feeyin: and its good that you agree. Thanks!
@Adrian: probably not.
@Adrian: paranoid much!!
Another ‘cash for ash’ scandal.
Which probably equates only to 10 people buying their smokes there while in work, as a smoker I probably go through 300 packs a year. Not really a news worthy story….
I always buy my cigarettes from my local TD. They’re so much cheaper.
Probably the only ones that can afford
them now
I wanna know how many packets of bacon fries they go through in a year.
Not surprised a lot of smoke and mirrors in Lenister House.
@JesusMoreBullshit: Don’t forget the smoke and daggers…
Close the bloody thing down
@Jamie: the entire dail or just the bar ? id go for the former myself !
Saw that old movie Gremlins over the weekend, no idea why the bar scene came to mind when I was reading this article, no idea.
Is there a condom machine in the Dáil bar?
This may be perceived as toxic4.4/10
@Micheal McGee: Too late for the residential inbreds that infest the Dáil.
And these are the very people that tell the people that pay their wages not to smoke or drink because of the f***** up health system …
You couldn’t make it up.
Sweet Jesus… After all their swaning around the world. You would think duty free would be the order of the day.. .
The big point to consider is not the amount of cigarettes they smoke but rather the number of TDs in the Dail (and Senators in the Seanad). I’m sure you all realise it is the highest per capita representation in the EU. It would fit Mr Murray and his fellow journo travellers better to highlight this fact and see if the number could be reduced.
I hope they choke on them
Curupt shower of horses who couldn’t run a bath bunch of ankers
Shit news…Work it out. Its under 10 packets a week. Not a big deal considering the amount of people in the dail..
Wtf dose the dail have a bar in the first place
Claremorris Council don’t like giving houses to there own they give them to every forgien hunt going they are the biggest shower of %ankers going I’m so mad with these fuuckkers
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