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It's still a couple of months away yet but candidates have already been chosen. Sam Boal/Rollingnews.ie

State of the (very early) race: Here's how the parties are shaping up ahead of the by-elections

By-elections are notoriously difficult for government parties but Fine Gael has been preparing.

TAOISEACH LEO VARADKAR all but confirmed during the week that the upcoming by-elections will be held at the end of November

We’ve no firm date yet but the indications are that Friday 29 November is looking the most likely day. 

Regardless of the details, the parties have already been busying themselves selecting candidates and jostling for position. So it’s probably a good time for a snapshot at how it’s shaping up just over two months out. 

For those caught unawares about the upcoming by-elections, they’re happening as a result of the four TDs who vacated their seats after being elected to the European Parliament in May

The four seats vacated that now have to be filled are:

  • Frances Fitzgerald (FG) – Dublin Mid-West
  • Clare Daly (I4G) – Dublin Fingal
  • Billy Kelleher (FF) – Cork North-Central
  • Mick Wallace (I4C) – Wexford 

The identities in those four seats hasn’t changed the Dáil mathematics too much, with the Fianna Fáil abstention under the confidence and supply agreement meaning the government’s effective majority hasn’t really been changed.  

But this could well be different after the by-elections with Fine Gael in a weaker or stronger position depending on how they’ll go. 

Sitting governments traditionally have a tough time winning by-elections, as Varadkar admitted to colleagues during the week, but the party has been quick out of the blocks in selecting candidates and getting their campaigns moving. 

Already, Fine Gael has officially selected three of four candidates and four ministers have been chosen as directors of election in each constituency.  

The only constituency yet to officially chose a candidate is in Dublin Mid-West, where the party is defending a seat, but councillor Emer Higgins is currently the only nominee ahead of the convention on 4 October.

Higgins was previously selected as a candidate in the next general election at the end of 2017 so she told TheJournal.ie that she has been focused on the Dáil for the past two years.

Higgins also acknowledged that by-elections can be challenging for government parties but said that she has been campaigning for some time.   

“I suppose the record of any party in governments when it comes to by-elections kind of speaks for itself. But I’m a really strong candidate, I’m somebody who’s been a councillor for eight years and I’ve been working really hard on the ground.”

Higgins may well face a difficult task in winning in a single-seat race in a constituency that has a strong opposition vote.

Sinn Féin’s Eoin O’Broin topped the poll ahead of Fitzgerald in 2016 with Fianna Fail’s John Curran winning a seat and Solidarity’s Gino Kenny taking the last one.

Kenny beat off competition from Anne-Marie McNally of the Social Democrats for the final seat in 2016 and McNally will be running in upcoming by-election. 

McNally says it feels slightly strange to have a by-election so soon after the locals and ahead of an expected general election next year. 

“It kind of feels like there could be a bit of a campaign weariness, not just amongst ourselves but amongst the electorate as well. I’m not sure how local people are going to feel about seeing more posters going up,” she told TheJournal.ie.

McNally said that as a commuting constituency with a large number of young families, housing and the price of rent are huge issues in Dublin Mid-West.

Autism services, she adds, is something that comes up repeatedly on doorsteps as well.

McNally says she hopes that the constituency profile will mean there is an “opportunity for a left-wing party”.

Particularly with Frances Fitzgerald being a senior minister for as long she was in such a powerful position, the area still didn’t benefit well at all from her there. So I think there’s a bit of soreness there about that.

McNally says that if Fine Gael were to fail to win any of the four by-elections it would put them in a “precarious position” and give the opposition greater influence over the timing of the general election.

“Having said that, and I can only speak for my own area, I can see the money and the finances that has been pumped by Fine Gael into the campaign out here. And they have been for the last number of months, obviously, in anticipation of this,” she adds. 

Of the other parties, Labour has chosen former TD and current councillor Joanna Tuffy to contest the by-election in an attempt to win back the seat she won on two occasions. 

Green Party councillor Peter Kavanagh, who was elected for the first time in May, will be attempting to turn that momentum into a Dáil seat.

90410283_90410283 Joanna Tuffy is running for Labour in Dublin Mid West. RollingNews.ie RollingNews.ie

 

Sinn Féin has not yet selected its candidates for any of the by-elections but will be contesting each of them. Its selection for Dublin Mid-West is expected to be finalised first at the end of the month before the others follow. 

Fianna Fáil hasn’t chosen its candidate yet for Dublin Mid-West, so far selecting only Senator Lorraine Clifford-Lee in Dublin Fingal and councillor Padraig O’Sullivan in Cork North-Central.

Reputation

O’Sullivan will be attempting to retain Kelleher’s long-held seat and admits they are “big boots to fill”. 

“He has a reputation here in Cork North-Central, he’s served here for over 20 years. So as I said, they’ll be big boots to fill, but I relish a challenge,” he said, adding it will likely be a competitive race. 

Judging on opinion polls I suppose it could come down to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Traditionally here Labour used to to do well with Kathleen Lynch in the field, I’m not sure if they’re confirmed yet but it’ll be competitive. 

Indeed, Labour has not confirmed its candidate in the constituency with the nominations remaining upon until week of the convention. 

Fine Gael is running Senator Colm Burke in the constituency with Oliver Moran for the Green Party and Sinéad Halpin for the Social Democrats.

Infrastructural challenges are a big issue in the constituency with O’Sullivan namechecking delayed or mothballed projects like the Dunkettle Interchange and the North Ring Road.

“There’s the question of the location for a hospital that the HSE is looking to position here and there seems to be an awful lot of promises but very little delivery for the north side,” he added. 

Change

The two other Dáil vacancies are those left by the departure to Strasbourg of Independent 4 Change former deputies Clare Daly and Mick Wallace. Fingal and Wexford to be specific.

The two say they are considering whether they will support independents who may be running but that this has not been decided yet.

The constituencies are especially interesting because they are both ones where Fianna Fáil has a strong vote and a sitting TD in each. 

Clifford-Lee will be hoping to benefit from Darragh O’Brien’s poll-topping performance in 2016 while in Wexford Malcolm Byrne could be hoping to use his unexpectedly strong showing in the European elections as a stepping stone  

Fianna Fáil hasn’t chosen its candidate in Wexford yet but Byrne is set to be keen with councillor Lisa McDonald also an option. 

If Clifford-Lee is to win in Dublin Fingal she’ll have to beat former Fine Gael deputy leader and health minister James Reilly who’s eyeing a return to the Dáil. 

Labour will be running councillor Duncan Smith in Fingal and councillor George Lawlor in Wexford, where he recently topped the poll in his local ward. 

The Green Party has chosen Joe O’Brien as its Dublin Fingal candidate and has not yet selected for Wexford. 

The Social Democrats are running Tracey Carey in Dublin Fingal and are not contesting in Wexford.

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29 Comments
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    Mute KMac
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 4:36 PM

    The big Accountancy firms are more to blame for the calamity that ensued.
    Cowen, like many others were lead to believe one thing with the published accounts while a very different story was the case. He paid millions for advice from these so called “experts” who lead him directly up the path & over the cliff.

    668
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    Mute tmwtbc
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 5:39 PM

    Exactly my thoughts. Cowan may not be a qualified accountant but plenty around him were.

    499
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    Mute Dave Doyle
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 6:42 PM

    Whose agenda were the accountancy firms working to, is the question.

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    Mute Peter Grimes
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 9:08 PM
    67
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    Mute BERTIE
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 10:23 PM

    Consultants get paid to tell you what you want to hear and already know, if you don’t like what you’re told you tell them to go to a dark room with a bottle of whiskey and a gun

    30
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    Mute Mary Ward
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 11:51 PM

    Every bank in Ireland executed a charge a floating charge over the monies in their account with the central bank of Ireland – the fund to enable central bank to honour the transfer made by those bank to other bank in the euro zone – why cos the central bank not confident in the solvency of the banks. if Government did not know of that state of affair – it id of court – for them bank held government bonds as securities. The government took RISK and gambled but I believe mainly the government FF / Greens was bullied and bullied badly by the IMF and to this date the Governments ( MINISTERS ) has still not released gag from the independent role of the DAIL to protect the public fund and exercise it power under the as the institution require to approve the term of that loan under art 29 5 2. and have dail to fall back on in it negotiation in this huge No TD has challenged the opinion that and Cowen Government and current governments that that loan is not an agreement under art 29 5 2. and we all know the loss made and suffered to public purse from the liquidation for the huge loan burdening nation states. but it is D Obrien who is now suing the Oireachtas – nothing has changed . The TD are like lapdogs .

    29
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    Mute Mary Ward
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    Jul 3rd 2015, 12:10 AM

    the book never seem to stop anywhere in this county and u don’t need to be any expert to know that property price were rising too fast far too fast, and bank engaging in reckless borrowing to satisfy this insatiable demand . The politician just did not want to ASK questions . And still don’t . I don’t see the point or at all of these inquiries – into past damage EFFECT STILL ON US – and today we have one D O; Brien suing Oireachtas – dail gagged from inquiring into any more losses in IBRC and accountant making millions , While Greece may well be on way to getting better deals at heart of the problem – Frankfurt,. D Obrien has a claim a very valid claim – minister had told dail these term did not come under art 29 5 2 and none of them asked high court o/wise .

    35
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    Mute James Delaney
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    Jul 3rd 2015, 2:14 AM

    Yes & what political party were those firms affiliated to. Cowen is a clown. & typical FFer. He exercised no control over the Banks while he had the power to do so. Of course he & his so called Regulator were being wined & dined by them. Sickening.

    46
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    Mute von
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    Jul 3rd 2015, 5:39 PM

    @ Peter, thats how much he cared, we should give him an Oscar for his performance at the inquiry.
    Its hard to get rid of Skum but we must, if we want an Ireland we can be proud of.

    4
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    Mute James Delaney
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    Jul 3rd 2015, 6:02 PM

    @Von. I disagree re Oscar – The best has yet to come – nxt wk I believe – Mr B Ahearne, The King of Absolute & Total Bullshit will b making an appearance. Waffling away, putting on his sad sincere facade while laughing all the way to the Bank or should that be Bookie.

    4
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    Mute Paul Mc
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 4:16 PM

    The man is also grateful to DOB for giving him a well paid job as he was struggling to survive on his pensions.

    459
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    Mute billy
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 8:10 PM

    Biffo the legend… Banking inquiry ? It’s sheer entertainment & I can’t wait for Ahern, kenny & noonan to start spinning, It’s a Party Political soap opera & we are the mugs paying for it. Nothing to do with accountability, its the start of campaigning for general election.

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    Mute Cram Wood
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 9:47 PM

    Don’t start me off.
    Most thick Tea-shock we ever had.

    58
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    Mute John Michael
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 11:06 PM

    Cowen must be the ugliest person ever to appear on a soap opera.

    49
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    Mute Brendan McGill
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 11:25 PM

    @Cram I think he could be beaten to the post on that one by Enda… Or else it’s a tie

    32
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    Mute Ron North
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 11:50 PM

    Gail Platt JM?

    25
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    Mute Bobby Connolly
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 4:22 PM

    Still he performed “to the best of his ABILITY” – and therein lies the problem. The complete lack of ABILITY of Cowen and his cohorts is astounding given the salaries and pensions they “earn”. Couldn’t run your local grocery store.

    322
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    Mute whitecross
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    Jul 3rd 2015, 12:28 AM

    Will he give up his 151.000 euro annual pension? ,,He would not run a Topaz station…https://youtu.be/HtOzdj5gRSc

    25
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    Mute Martin Critten
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 4:14 PM

    And on that night who indeed was in charge of the ‘clattering train’ . . .

    243
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    Mute Martin Critten
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 4:19 PM

    Well we know who was restricting the options – The European Cartel

    169
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    Mute Anto Curran
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 4:40 PM

    If people see this “inquiry” as anything other than the FG/Lab government trying to score points to cover their horrendous record and plain ineptitude while in power themselves, then you’re all in a world of delusion. Nothing will come of this at all. What is done is done, and some of the questions (that seem to be more statements and rants rather than questions) have nothing to do with anything.

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    Mute Greg O'Riordan
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 6:42 PM

    Yes the quality of questions were quite poor and unfortunately some were not even questions leading to many interruptions by the Chair to clarify. Cowen whatever people may think of him portrayed himself very well today and very professionally IMO.

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    Mute Sean O Mara
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    Jul 3rd 2015, 1:52 AM

    As much as I don’t like cowen, his FF chums and their ridiculous guaranteed pensions this banking inquiry isn’t worth a pot of piss. It’s all about political points scoring, any FG/Lab/SF TD who claims that they wouldn’t have gone with the same sort of spending with the budget surplus’ that were there at the time is talking through their arse. Current Gov are all about talking up potential tax cuts and spending increases now that an election is looming while conveniently leaving out the fact that we are still saddled with a massive National Debt that will still have to be re paid by future generations. Funny how the pension reserve was gutted to set up the likes of IW yet TDs multiple fat pensions are still guaranteed to be paid from the public purse

    32
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    Mute Northern Craic
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 4:28 PM

    If this Japan was he’d fall on his sword.

    Or at least hit himself with his calculator.

    224
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    Mute Ben Gunn
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 4:19 PM

    Cowan and Ahern financed a government spending boom on excessive property stamp duties, huge VRT receipts and ever growing VAT income. Any leaving cert student could have told them that you cannot fund long term spending plans on transaction taxes.

    191
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    Mute Denito
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 5:45 PM

    Any Irish electorate, however, seemingly thought that you could do so.

    120
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    Mute Ben Gunn
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 4:23 PM

    Why did he think it sensible, in budget 2007, to pump an extra 12% cash into what was already the fastest growing economy in Europe and one the fastest in the developed world? How did he think that would play out?

    177
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    Mute John Lennox
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 6:47 PM

    He didn’t dare FF had a election coming up and that is all that mattered.

    He still doesn’t care, he walks away a well to do man, FF’s key friends have been looked after.

    The country can take a running jump.

    122
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    Mute Rory J Leonard
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 8:16 PM

    A bit like Horatio Nelson at the Battle of Copenhagen in 1801, Capn’ Cowan had the telescope up to his bad eye on the good ship Celtic Tiger not wanting to observe nor heed the clear signals of impending doom.

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    Mute jane
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    Jul 3rd 2015, 1:34 AM

    John he is the man that led FF into the greatest calamity in their history, his ego must have taken a serious knock.

    12
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    Mute Keith Michael Gregg
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    Jul 3rd 2015, 8:39 AM

    Bertie actually did that

    16
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    Mute Jimmy jones
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 4:19 PM

    He should be in jail for what he did to the Irish economy

    167
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    Mute Rochelle
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 8:05 PM

    For being democratically elected and acting to the best of his ability?

    82
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    Mute John Cross
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 4:27 PM

    How fickle people are , FF are up in the last polls , a week is along time in politics

    139
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    Mute Kevin Lynch
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 5:21 PM

    He has a much better knowledge of economics than I had previously given him credit for.
    Most of the inquiry’s members are asking very narrow questions in an attempt to score points–it’s not unsuprising that he push back at that. Finally, and much more seriously, they persistently put Prof Kelly’s warnings to witnesses without quoting the great numbers of cheerleaders at the time.

    134
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    Mute Johnny Downes
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 5:26 PM

    I’m no fan of FF or Cowen, but he’s an articulate spontaneous genius, compared to Kenny,

    255
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    Mute Al Ca
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 6:02 PM

    “The former Taoiseach came out swinging this morning and is continuing his evidence this afternoon.”

    ….for a moment there I thought it said he came out ‘swigging’….which would have made more sense.

    100
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    Mute Joe Traynor
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 4:57 PM

    This investigation with the backdrop of Greek default is a disaster for the FG masterminds that dreamed it up, It highlights the fact that we had no choice but to bail out banks if we wanted to see a future in Europe. Building and economy on short-term gains on stamp duty and capitol gains however was unforgivable folly.

    99
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    Mute Paul Wallace
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 5:25 PM

    I watched 10 minutes and I don’t believe a word of what that man says….still smug and feels he’s done nothing wrong. Psychopath

    80
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    Mute HRH The Brummie
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 6:04 PM

    gob5hite now give your pension back.

    77
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    Mute Robert Lester
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 4:30 PM

    He’s happy as his decisions had to effect on him and the rest of the gang. For the mere citizens of Ireland however it’s a much different tale.

    73
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    Mute Sean O'Reilly
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 4:55 PM

    Who are these ESRI and what level of control have they to ignore reports that were proven correct?! Yet again we all point fingers at politicians, either in power or opposition, the problem yet again ‘lies’ with the banks and possible collusion between them and high powered officials, at the end of the day TD’s and governments change, banks and their officials see them come and go, who has the power then?!!!

    72
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    Mute Rod_TenⒸ
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 4:12 PM

    Worth every penny of his pension, at least we get it back in excise duty I guess

    69
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    Mute Rodger 5
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 5:00 PM

    ” We recorded budget surpluses in 10 of 11 Budgets up to the time I left office as finance minister” if this buffoon is incapable of reconciling the excess incomes with the inevitable economic destruction of our county then we were truly shafted. What a reprehensible and arrogant comment to make.

    66
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    Mute Gus Sheridan
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 7:01 PM

    Actually its Eleven things we learnt about Cowan……….9. He is still alive. 10. He is still receiving a massive pension paid for by Irish people,many who cant afford it!

    60
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    Mute Adrian
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 5:45 PM

    We’ve learned that he hasn’t changed much, still as brutish as ever!

    59
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    Mute OneTrueVoice
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 6:08 PM

    the rest of the country’s ‘economists’ continue to appease their estate agent, mortgage lender or stockbroker employers with their sales patter.

    There should be some sort of regulatory health warning on economists who are commercial shills. perhaps to be banned by advertising standards to call themselves economists.

    58
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    Mute OneTrueVoice
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 6:02 PM

    Still if Cowen or Martin wandered across the forecourt trying to sell me a used car, I’d trust Cowen before Martin.
    Martin is just too slippery sleek for my liking. He makes Gerry Adams look trustworthy.
    Some just have that survival instinct I guess.

    46
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    Mute David Malone
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 7:04 PM

    At least he was sober today

    43
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    Mute William Clay
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 7:05 PM

    Does anyone remember Spittin’ Image? Every time I see a picture of cowen…..

    37
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    Mute SUSAN LLOYD
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 10:56 PM

    One thing we have learned nobody in high office in Ireland is accountable for anything…. Ever!!! Sham

    37
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    Mute Ciaran McCann
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 10:00 PM

    He now works for Denis Obrien right??

    34
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    Mute Damian Ward
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 7:46 PM

    As my father would say he has a face like a dogs arse

    32
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    Mute Michael Sands
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 4:25 PM

    For 8 to exist, then you added Snow White as one of them lol.

    28
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    Mute Barry Walsh
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    Jul 3rd 2015, 4:36 AM

    “I accept full and complete responsibility for our role in, and response to, that crisis.”

    Brian Cowen

    But what does that mean?
    Will he give up his big pension to demonstrate how he is willing to sacrifice in some way?

    22
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    Mute Mairead Ni Chleirigh
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 9:59 PM

    I wouldn’t mind having an opportunity to gesticulate in front of him… and it wouldn’t be a peace ✌ sign

    22
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    Mute release robert
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 7:30 PM

    Didn’t he once say when interviewed about, and during, the property boom “if people want to buy houses they should be allowed do so “……or words to that effect

    20
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    Mute Tony Murphy
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 10:01 PM

    The only thing we will find out is that he’s as good a liar as I always knew he was

    18
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    Mute Mindfulirish
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    Jul 3rd 2015, 1:17 AM

    He should be called Gotti, same arrogance and same modus operandi. Untouchable and smug as hell. How many SSIA’S did his friends and relatives have under Irish names, maiden names both in Irish and English ? All financed by his pal Seanie. Lucky if you are born into this Madia family.

    17
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    Mute Danny McLaughlin
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    Jul 3rd 2015, 5:33 AM

    Wow, why don’t you make some more baseless accusations?
    Perhaps they roasted children’s heads over burning €100 notes?

    Do you have any proof that this is the case?
    If you do, I’d advise you to bring your information to the Gardai.

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    Mute Ron North
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 11:54 PM

    The best thing about having Joe Higgins in the room is that no matter how badly you’ve fluced up or how incompetent you’ve been you can look up and remember that you’re still a better option than Joe.

    17
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    Mute InvasionNewsÉire
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    Jul 3rd 2015, 2:07 AM

    Traitors all of them, there is not one Irish patriot in the Dáil, not one. If you do not have the spine to know what is best for your country, to tell advisors to fk off, to tell Chosen bankers to fk off and print your own money, then you are undeserving to represent any nation of people. According to these people the Irish can go fk themselves, they’ll open the country to foreigners both Chosen bankers and immigrants, and clamp down hard on Irish people, and you know what, they’ll take it. All who opened up our country to bondholders, chosen bankers and immigration have blood on their hands.

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    Mute Noel Holland
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 10:31 PM

    Fat useless oompa loompa clown. …

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    Mute whitecross
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    Jul 3rd 2015, 12:30 AM

    Clara has let its village idiot out again ..https://youtu.be/HtOzdj5gRSc

    14
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    Mute Gus Sheridan
    Favourite Gus Sheridan
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    Jul 3rd 2015, 12:23 AM

    Some FF supporters here, they must have forgotton to lock the secure ward agsin…

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    Mute Janice Sullivan
    Favourite Janice Sullivan
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    Jul 3rd 2015, 2:52 AM

    ugly inside and out horrible man

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    Mute Lydia McLoughlin
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 8:00 PM

    he looks very hitler-ish in the last photo

    9
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    Mute Gus Sheridan
    Favourite Gus Sheridan
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    Jul 3rd 2015, 8:53 AM

    As ugly and arrogant as ever, stay classy Brian!

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    Mute Kevin Anthony
    Favourite Kevin Anthony
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 11:21 PM

    Is number 9 a go at him for being a bit of a nazi? Gesticulating. What a word.

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    Mute Mr Phil Officer
    Favourite Mr Phil Officer
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 5:14 PM
    5
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    Mute ROS123
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    Jul 3rd 2015, 11:40 AM

    Brian Clowen says he is ‘Happy’ with the decisions he made. Sure if he is happy sure its alright then, everyone of us should be happy… I doesn’t matter that he and his FF cronies bankrupted the country, saddled us with debts for generations, sure its alright he is HAPPY that the wonderful USC that he and FF brought in will be with us for generations. Clowens…..

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    Mute von
    Favourite von
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    Jul 3rd 2015, 5:33 PM

    I am so happy Cowen is sorry ( in Fr Jacks voice) but a lot of good sorry is doing the Country, we paid a high price for his SORRY, half the time he was drunk, why do people vote for such incompetent idiots, and now we have to suffer his brother, God help us but i ask the people of Sligo to vote independents that way we will rid the Country of the cute hureism that is rife in FF FG Lab FG.

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    Mute Enoch Burke IV
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 5:01 PM

    glad he was able to take time away from his studies to help us out.

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    Mute Enoch Burke IV
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 5:03 PM

    glad he could find time to help us out.

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    Mute Lisa Hardiman
    Favourite Lisa Hardiman
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    Jul 3rd 2015, 12:21 AM

    I am sick to my eye teeth of this repeat performance by so many” I’m sorry it happened blah blah blah” put your money where your big friggin mouth is and hand back your pension so ya tosspot

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    Mute Enoch Burke IV
    Favourite Enoch Burke IV
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    Jul 2nd 2015, 4:56 PM

    Glad he could take time away from his studies to help us all out.

    1
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