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FIANNA FÁIL, FINE Gael and the Green Party all sitting side-by-side on the government benches.
While many, even in those parties, might have found it hard to imagine before the election, it will be Ireland’s new reality if the party members vote in favour of the agreed programme for government.
If the new government does get off the ground, who will get seats at the Cabinet table?
While party leaders state publicly that no one has discussed such matters, speculation is already mounting in Leinster House as to who might get the top jobs.
Here are our predictions for who will make the roster:
The Fianna Fáil leader is getting the first go at the top job. Under the programme for government, his terms will expire on 15 December 2022.
Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar, while tánaiste, could take over a beefed-up Department of Enterprise. There has been speculation that due to the fallout of the Covid-19 crisis, a more focused Jobs, Enterprise and the Economy tacked-on, will drive the country’s recovery and employment figures.
It is understood that Varadkar has three choices – Finance, Foreign Affairs or Enterprise – with the latter being the most likely.
Simon Coveney has said he would like to remain as Minister for Foreign Affairs, telling Sarah McInerney this week: “I’ve always had a passion for international politics and foreign affairs and it is a brief that I really enjoy.”
Brexit hasn’t gone away you know, and Coveney has built up significant relationships in the last number of years.
It would seem foolish to move him out as the crunch Brexit point approaches.
Some Fianna Fáil TDs say the party wants the departments of housing and health, (Wicklow TD Stephen Donnelly has said he’d like the latter job), but with the Covid-19 pandemic still very much an issue, it is expected that Harris might stay where he is.
It can take ministers some time to get a handle on their briefs, time which many state the government cannot afford right now when dealing with the pandemic.
Fianna Fáil wants to hold the purse-strings, so it is expected that McGrath will step in as Finance Minister.
With the Taoiseach’s role in rotation, there is also a chance that the finance portfolio will rotate back to Paschal Donohoe in 2022 when Varadkar takes over.
As indicated above, Donohoe and McGrath might enter into their own rotation in the roles of Ministers for Finance and Public Expenditure over the coming years.
If there is ever to be a heave against Micheál Martin, many in the party believe it will be done so Jim O’Callaghan can take the reigns. Some think that Micheál might want to keep him close in Cabinet (it didn’t work out too well when Enda Kenny tried this with Leo Varadkar), but there are only so many seats to go around.
While O’Callaghan is definitely in the mix, the deputy party leader Dara Calleary could be tasked with filling this role.
It is believed that the current minister, Fine Gael’s Charlie Flanagan, will lose his Cabinet seat.
The Galway East TD was a member of the Fianna Fáil negotiating team so is likely to get the nod for Cabinet. With Fianna Fáil’s female representation being depleted at the general election, a woman in one of the top jobs is a must.
It was mooted that the Department of Children would be scrapped but there has been significant lobbying to have it retained.
Fine Gael’s Eoghan Murphy is a certainly not getting another run-out at Cabinet. His housing brief is getting the same reputation as the health brief has held for the past 30 years due to the monumental challenge of sorting out the housing crisis.
Barry Cowen, brother of former taoiseach Brian Cowen, has experience in this area, having been the spokesperson for the party previously. Whoever gets this job, they would want to have a thick skin, as it remains the one of the biggest issues facing the next government.
The deputy leader of the Green Party told her members this week that they had made some big wins in education reform in the programme for government, which might mean they want to ensure they can drive the agenda on those issues over the next few years.
The Meath East TD has been going head-to-head with the current Education Minister Joe McHugh throughout the Covid-19 crisis and called for the suspension of the Leaving Certificate early on.
Getting Higher Education a seat at the Cabinet table was a red line issue for Fianna Fáil and in particular, Micheál Martin. It makes sense the former education spokesperson would lead on it.
With three Cabinet seats going to the Greens it is difficult to know where the third seat will go.
Eamon Ryan and Catherine Martin will take two – but the third could go to Roderic O’Gorman, Joe O’Brien or even Neasa Hourigan (though her chance might have slipped away due to being so vocal against even entering government).
With all three Green TDs being Dublin-based, the Gaeltacht aspect could be reconfigured into perhaps the Department for Rural Development.
Some have floated the idea of putting the Tourism and Sport brief – two sectors that have been severely impacted by the public health emergency – in with Culture and Heritage in order to be able to deal with a focused package of supports for those areas, which will need a significant dig-out when a government is formed.
Having served on the negotiating team while also handling the Business brief during the outbreak of Covid-19 outbreak, Humphreys is tipped to stay on.
There is speculation however that the choice could come down to her or Helen McEntee, who some speculate is due to jump up the ladder because of her work on Brexit in the last year.
Ever since it became known that the Greens might be serious contenders for entering into government, Ryan has been a given for the Environment ministry. However, throughout the talks it is understood there were calls from his party for the transport aspect be rolled together with Climate Action, as the two are so interlinked.
The Galway West TD was first elected in the 2016 general election. She has served as the chair of the Committee on Communications, Climate Action and the Environment and is well regarded in the party.
She was part of the Fine Gael negotiating team, and is believed to be heading towards a ministerial role. With Fine Gael facing criticism from some members that going in with the Greens will be bad news for rural Ireland, they are keen to ensure they keep hold of this brief (and in the west), which has been occupied by vocal Mayo TD Michael Ring – who has not been shy in speaking out against his party entering into government with Fianna Fáil and the Green Party.
If Communications is also under her remit, she would be tasked with the rollout of rural broadband across the country – a big win for Fine Gael if they manage to deliver on it.
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Probably going to be the most unpopular government ever. Michael Martin as taoiseach is stomach churning and FF back in power is an insult to this country after what they done to us
@Nowa Huta: it might eventually turn out to be A Very Good Government wait and see when the Ball is thrown in and The Game Begins
@Nowa Huta: …what they **did** to us
@pat seery: If you have a short memory
@Nowa Huta: Not a FF voter, but you’d swear they pinned you down and forced you to borrow thousands for houses that you couldn’t afford. People need to take some personal responsibility for reckless borrowing in the tiger.
@Eric: What exactly did they do ? Did they collapse Lehmans Brothers ? Did they cause what was a worldwide economic crash ?
The only thing they did was lower taxes, lower VAT rates and a give us more money in our pockets.
They did not tell us to go out and take mortgages that were inflated by greed, they didnt tell us live a champagne lifestyle… the generation of the Celtic Tiger era need to take responsibility for their own stupidity and not keep blaming a goverment of a financial crash that has nothing to do with them…
Will you blame them for the next recession which will hit fairly sharply in a few months, ?
Because the way I see it small countries like Ireland will always fair worse than Super Economies like USA, Germany and UK ,Japan ,China etc… the recession is always harder and takes longer to recover.
@Nowa Huta: what they did*
@pat seery: yea…and trump could have been a good president
The “game” pat is rigged
@Paul O’Sullivan: They didn’t listen. That’s what they did. They were warned often enough that the bubble would burst and that our economy was too dependant on the construction sector. Wasn’t it no bank account Bertie that suggested that anybody talking down the economy should kill themselves. And I quote “Sitting on the sidelines, cribbing and moaning is a lost opportunity. I don’t know how people who engage in that don’t commit suicide”. And a financial regulator asleep at the wheel allowing 110% mortgages on houses that weren’t fit for purpose.. Don’t get me started on Anglo. What they done to us was criminally neglected their duty of sound economic governance which ended in an a broken economy and a Bailout.
@Commentator: What is it with people always blaming the ones at bottom of the ladder. If as you say the money was recklessly borrowed then it goes without saying that it was recklessly lent. If the banks were lending money recklessly where was this money coming from. Don’t you see it was a giant pyramid scheme facilitated by governments and the so called financial experts the only looser in the whole scam are the ones at the bottom of the ladder.
@Shay Redmond.: you cannot blame the Government of the day for what Anglo Irish Bank did… they dabbled with the figures and lied to the government…
For me it comes down to should they have bailed out the banks ?
@Paul O’Sullivan: You left out the tribunals.
@Nowa Huta: At least they did something, the last shower did nothing. We’re still talking about the same issues 10 yrs later.
@Paul O’Sullivan: Bertie and his boys couldn’t have done more damage to this country if they tried. Their fiscal policies were always going to come back to bite them, because it was a ‘live for today and worry about tomorrow when it comes’ strategy. The country was booming, but there was no proper pension or rainy day funds in place, even though almost every economist was warning that our economy was overheating. Bertie said he couldn’t understand why people like them did not commit suicide. People were encouraged to spend and they lived as most human beings would. But unfortunately the bubble burst and workers are paying USC (which FG was to scrap) and households pay higher utility and service charges, while politicians have increased their take home pay again, which was declined by some!
@Paul O’Sullivan: You’ve a very short membry. I’m old enough to remember young couples panicing at the price rises in housing, being told by the fianna fial government to ‘get on the housing ladder’ while they can. Backed up by 100%+ mortgages. Fianna fail turned our economy into ponzi scheme that was a complete illusion. Hence, when the housing bubble burst, the economy went off of a cliff.
@The Wizen: What’s a Membry? What is Fiel? Standards are slipping in the rising’s HQ.
You forgot to mention there was a world financial crisis at the time Certainly there was a property bubble caused by supply and demand coupled with a ‘get rich quick’ element of greed.
@Paul Linehan:
FF’s Charlie McCreevy, – a prudent, experienced, sensible shattered accountant who understood all matters pertaining to finance, including risk, ST, LT planning, addition, subtraction, long division, multiplication-that sort of thing, &was therefore very well qualified for his role as Minst of Finance in late 90’s.
This was a time when first-coming of Celtic Tiger in full swing. Annual exchequer surpluses were the norm, &farseeing Charlie had good sense to set aside €25 Bn in a Rainy Day Fund.
But following this blatant attack on the Nation’s annual spendables, what did senior bookkeeper, and spendthrift Taoiseach Bertie go and do? He shafted bould Charlie away from his role as MOF, packed him off to a well-paying EU job, in order for him not to be causing such trouble
@Eric: so sad get a hobby
@Paul O’Sullivan: yes u can the buck stops with the financial regulator and government
@Nowa Huta: Is that ‘handle’ a play on words, cos it doesn’t work for me..? I agree with the very next contributor: don’t write the whole Government off so blithely!
@Nowa Huta: great to see MM back. A great many buster with huge experience
@Paul Linehan: Thankfully, there was a €10/mo raise in Child Benefit every election year, so that was something positive.
@Commentator: my children didn’t borrow any Money from the banks but they will be paying for it for years.
@Paul O’Sullivan: Of course you can. It’s a government’s duty to its people to insure financial institutions act within the law. Therefore mechanisms should be in place to prevent banks going rogue. And rogue they went. As I said our financial regulator was asleep at the wheel and no doubt was told to remain so. Criminal negligence it’s called in other countries. I think you can go to prison for that.
@Shay Redmond.: by whom
@james cullen: today’s children didn’t fight in WWII, but countries are still repaying war bonds, it’s how economies work, get over it.
@Seanboy: I never said the lenders were blameless, however the blame does not all lie at their door, it lies with policy, governance and primarily individual personal responsibility.
@Paul Linehan: there was no proper pension. Any politician has his pension secured before he ever gets into the big boy pants, idiotic statement
@Nowa Huta: Calleary looks set for justice. He has a no-nonsense approach to hubris and cant. He looks set to give the immigration NGOs exactly what they asked for: A state-managed system of direct-provision, and the elimination of extended stays in direct-provision by quickly clearing out the High-Court immigration list, starting with the longest running cases, and ensuring final ‘in or out’ decisions within 12 months.
@David cotter: Trump is a good president most americans love him
@Nowa Huta: the people voted for change. This is not change. A Fianna-Gael-Green alliance in government will screw working class people to the wall. It’s far too right wing.
With 3 x ministers from Cork, including the Taoiseach expect to see a lot of money find its way there at the expense of other regions
@a politicians promise is as good as a lie: your confusing Cork with Dublin. Its about time that other counties get a look in.
@a politicians promise is as good as a lie:
Cork can look after itself….. always have…. the County that stood alone that the Black and Tans could not defeat the IRA, while the rest of the country was on the practically defeated…. it is greatly overlooked the contribution of the Cork IRA brigade of No.s 1 & 3 …
Cork City needs a lot of investment anyway, which has already been earmarked and planned out over the next ten years…. I would just like to see those commitments honoured and kept… and the much needed motorway between Cork and Limerick
@a politicians promise is as good as a lie: They are all from the same constituency in Cork. They might bring a few euros to their ow area, I’ll hold my breath that they’ll bring much to the rest of the county
@Paul O’Sullivan: spare us the Cork beat the British guff
@Gerry Ryan deG: guff? It’s a historical fact my boy. The war of independence was mostly fought in Munster, with cork seeing the majority of all skirmishes, engagements and ambushes.
Facts don’t care about your feelings
@Elizabeth Barry: did Cork not get enough when Jack Lynch was in charge.
@a politicians promise is as good as a lie: Three ministers from a single 4-seat cork constituency, yet the guy who topped the poll there, – sent to Coventry.
you couldn’t make it up.
GOD HELP US ALL
@Pauline Fedigan: God ? ffs!
@Paul O’Sullivan: Ok so, God, Allah, Yawey, Budda, Zeus, Jupiter, Poseidon, Mars and all their friends
I hope this falls apart. Catherine Martin a most pernicious individual as are her dolly mixture party. We are about to commit economic hari-kari. The LNG position is madness in terms of security of supply.
@Miller: Give it a break, please
FFG & FF on a bike.
I give this fiasco of a trinity less than a year before they turn savage on each other.
This time the greens will be wiped out permanently.
@Michael Clinton: No they won’t, the climate crisis or pollution aren’t going away.
@Michael Clinton: Don’t have to wait a year, what is going to happen within FG & FF when the jobs are being given out, ALL HELL will break loose when a load of these Incompetent Ministers are being Fu…d out, and the same will happen within FF, there are Vultures in there that believe in their Hearts that they could move mountains,- most of them wouldn’t be capable of doing any type of job . This is going to be fun.
Hildegarde Naughton as Communication Minister will just show everyone how incapable she is of doing a job. Like her party colleague Sean Kyne
@Peter Beegan: Sean Kyne is one of our TDs in Galway West – one grumpy son-of-a-gun!
Good luck to all. Leaders lead and take responsible action. Marxists cannot be allowed to run any modern-day country. Consign them to the past.
@Rob Jones: None of them are proven leaders so I am not sure what you are talking about. Can you explain when you have a minute please?
@David Corrigan: have you forgotten that we had a booming economy and full employment before Covid19? Plenty of proven leaders in the FG ranks.
@Hector Son: Can you point out to me the policies or whatever else implemented by FG that can be directly linked to improving the economy please Hector?
Also, can you comment on the state of our health service, housing, among others which were managed by those same “leaders”?
@Rob Jones: What party are marxists? Rubbish
@Rob Jones: in that case let’s put Fianna Fáil back into power to take responsible action and not bankrupt the country. Oh wait
@David Corrigan: FF bankrupt the country. It was FG alone that implemented the policies to take us back to prosperity.
We have 10k homeless from a population of 5 million. Too many, must do better.
Health has always been a poisoned chalice, however it’s problems are not from a lack of funding.
You obviously didn’t live through Ireland in the eighties , no jobs, no prospect of jobs. Now that was misery, you would probably have loved it.
@Hector Son: FG policies had nothing to do with the recovery of our economy. I don’t you don’t want to hear that but it is true. Our political system did nothing to improve the economy in this country.
FG (or any party for that matter) make no effort to improve housing and health issues just to use those examples. How can any party stand over continuously increasing the health budget year on year and still see no improvements? They don’t have the stomach or possibly the ability to tackle such issues.
I don’t like misery at all so I have no idea why you would assume that. Comparing how this kip is run to the 80′s shows a lack of ambition to be honest. Do you not expect better the way our country is managed i.e. managed for our people and not just politicians and their cronies? Are we asking too much from you?
@David Corrigan: I “know” you don’t want to hear that……
@David Corrigan: I assume you like misery because you rarely seem to have anything positive to say. Referring to Ireland as “this kip” doesn’t exactly indicate that you like living here.
I love living in Ireland, we have our problems but I do appreciate what we have, unlike yourself.
@David Corrigan: Please stop commenting. You’re embarrassing yourself.
@Hector Son: Actually FF had done 2/3rds of adjustments required by Troika and FG followed FF’s plans with minor adjustments according to OECD!
Ireland only uses 3 Categories of ETHOS typology re homelessness and excludes 10 Categories!!
FG Government has been in charge of health for 9 years and their policies failed to halt health crisis developing into a National emergency!
@Hector Son: I have no problem with living here. I don’t like the high cost of living and the rip off culture that we have allowed to grow here. As a country we can do a lot better and you know that. We have a great education system, good colleges, talented young people etc. I have always said that i.e. it is a positive by the way.
@Hector Son: Ireland had National emergencies in health, homelessness and housing,consistent poverty and deprivation,unaffordable rising rents and mortgage rates,high costs of living,etc
@Oracle Steve: Great contribution Steve. Do you not have a colouring book to play with this morning?
@Nuala Mc Namara: thanks for the info re ETHOS. How do other countries compare? Who implements more categories and what are their figures like?
@David Corrigan: Go live in Yemen, Honduras or Rwanda if this country is such a “kip”, the biggest diwnside of this country is the number if knockers and cranks we have.
@James Walsh: Verses the number of supporters of a system that is not delivering James? Far to many of those kind of people here.
@Rob Jones: They’re doing okay in China, where you buy just about everything.
@David Corrigan: where do u live Downton abbey.
It’s really astounding how short many Irish peoples memories are and just how blind many people are to the cartels of FG & FF or FFG.
There’s no denying they have raped and pillaged this country over appox a century to line their own greedy little pockets. They have also blocked a program for change by banding together And behaving like little children and not letting SF play. Quite disgusting to be perfectly honest.
SF are a government in waiting. I look forward to the next election to watch those cartels become Decimated.
Wake up ireland.
@Pád: you complain about people having short memories, yet you want Provisional SF in Govt? What would be quite disgusting is if a minority, say 24%, became a dictatorship, rather than a legitimate democratic Government formed from a majority of TDs elected to the Dail
@Stephen Kearon: Would you every get over yourself you Imbecile!
For starters it’s not Provisional SF, it’s is only SF.
You are living in the past buddy.
Might have only been 24% but that translated to over 535000 people.
They won first preference in appox 90% of all constituencies. Won popular vote. FFG can only keep them out for so long.
So with that said little man, head off like a good little lad!
@Pád: The combined vote of SF, the Greens, and the remaining alphabet soup of leftists were outvoted by the combined vote of the centre-right parties and centrist independents, and the Dail reflects this centre-right majority. You can wish your aunt had balls all you want, but the left lost the election. Get over it.
We are in serious trouble with a Green Party rep in charge of transport. Motor tax will go back up to 1,000 Euro per year and petrol will double in price. Might as well get a bike and commute 35km one way.
@Seeking Truth: Politicians exempt probably.
It’s a tob job, but somebody has to do it.
@Derek Power:
True – but maybe it can lead to a top one!
@Derek Power: ah it’s no fun when they fix the typos in the headline
A completely talentless bunch of me feiners, God help us
Catherine Martin introducing subject about betrayal in schools.
I thought we voted for change. I don’t see much change in the programme for government.
@Paul Power: If you are referring to the electorate as “we” you are wrong. We did not vote for change or for no change or for anything else. There has never been less consensus among the electorate in any election in the history of this State. This has been the most fragmented outcome of any election ever held in this country. Even the people who keep on bleating about change cannot agree on what change means.
@frank mcglynn: MM said the people wanted change.
@Paul Power: He is wrong too.
@frank mcglynn: There was a small swing to the left. But there is still an overall centre-right majority in the Dail. The left lost. Just like Corbyn when he “won” his great victory in 2017.
How many people have to die under Simon Harris watch as minister for health before he is removed from office. Remember it was because of his incompetence that we had an election in the first place.
@Danny Lahart: and remember why he got the job in the first place – as a reward for supporting Enda Kenny in a leadership spill – not because of any semblance of competence.
Surprised if Harris retains Health, thought Michael McGrath would get that job. Maybe they will take one of Housing and Health each, spread the pain around.
Taoiseach, Finance and Foreign Affairs all from the one constituency? Very un-FF/FG thinking there!
@Virus-free Turkey: Whst
@Virus-free Turkey: Didn’t McGrath fail to reach the quota?
So is this confirming no more department of children?
@Bleurgh: Merged with social welfare by the looks of it, there’s no real grounds for keeping it as a separate dept. anyway.
@James Walsh: This is only speculation. It is just as likely to be merged with Health or Education.
Michael Ring is the hardest working minister in the dail and has done so much for his country in his role in rural affairs
@John gaughan: He has looked after Mayo very well, handing out money, not his own money, but lottery funds and All sorts of Community Grants- , YES, Mayo has done very well alright, They will miss him .
Cant see FG getting all the highprofile Media friendly Jobs! Followed by the Greens and FF taking the Rest! Northern Ireland will figure prominently and will stay within MMs remit. Jim O’Callaghan will be in Cabinet or AGeneral. Dara Killeary will be in Business/Jobs or Justice…do rule out Lisa Chambers Sen.or Jack Chamber for Sup Jnr….Barry Cowan a must as it Ml Mcgrath..Stephen Donnelly & Darragh O’ Brian cant be ruled out ! Plenty of talent for Jnr Mins as well
@anne kelly: easy there Anne , before you have an orgasm.. your twitter bio says it all..
Excellent that Eoghan Murphy and Charlie Flanagan are out.
@Robert O’H: Think these 2 ‘purges’ are only assumptions?
Rainbow/c&s governments, an accountability revolving door…
Ann the Rabbit, minister for children, god help us, she thinks people were living it up on €350.00 a week, this unwanted government, will not look after the working class, big business government as per usual.
What about Eoghan no job for him? Looking at that line up McGrath Coveney and O Donoghue are the only premiership players
@Thomas Harrington: Eoghan who? Oh you mean the minister for uselessness?
Putting the cart before the horse. Probably be independents where the greens are
Does anyone know if pensions were mentioned in the programme for government?
Much ado about nothing.
Can’t wait for the general election. They will both be destroyed.
Eamon Ryan wants a south facing job, so he can grow lettuce out his ass.
That’s my job Fu*ked so.
Power crazy FF ~ FG ~ Greens ~~ Democracy gone right out of the windows !
have your say