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ECONOMIC GROWTH IN Ireland is “broadly positive” but expected to slow down in the coming years even if an EU-UK trade deal is reached, according to the Central Bank.
The first quarterly bulletin of the year from the Central Bank has outlined that economic growth has stayed “remarkably resilient” in recent years despite weak world demand and heightened Brexit uncertainty.
Director of economics and statistics at the Central Bank Mark Cassidy said economic growth has been positive, but is expected to slow down.
“While the economy has been growing strongly in recent years, the pace of that expansion is likely to slow down,” Cassidy said in a statement.
“Our forecasts are based on an assumption that an EU-UK trade agreement is in place from January 2021, but even in that scenario, which is not guaranteed, we still see the pace of economic growth gradually slowing.”
Ireland’s economy is approaching full employment, the quarterly bulletin says. There will a gradual growth in services prices as a result of this.
Consumer spending growth last year was broadly similar to that in 2018.
Strong export growth is expected to continue, although it was mainly focused in certain sectors such as pharmaceuticals, computer processors and computer services.
Growth in other sectors was more modest. Employment growth is also expected to slow down somewhat from previous strong growths.
The economic impact of a Brexit trade deal will depend on “how close or far” they are from the current arrangement, the Central Bank governor Gabriel Makhlouf said today.
“But it seems likely and unsurprising that any future economic relationship between the EU and the UK will have more hurdles than the status quo,” Mahklouf said at the European Financial Forum.
He added that the economic impact of the coronavirus in China “adds to already existing uncertainties” worldwide.
“While it is premature to reach any conclusions, there is the potential for a negative shock to the growth of the international economy in the short-term,” he said.
Even Paschal is not ruling out a recession, let’s hope the economic models are wrong that there will be a recession this year and hopefully trump tariffs just bring down America and not the rest of the world, US economy is tanking
@Housing Hunger Games: a recession could be good, maybe then I’ll be able to afford a house!!
@Housing Hunger Games: Unfortunately the US economy can tank most of the world if it goes down.
McWilliams has been warning about this for months. He seems to be at least a month ahead of what the media is saying on his podcast.
@Ronan Mc: it was warned that his economic plan of higher taxes with tariffs and transferring wealth to the rich would lead to a recession. Last time the US had tariffs of only 40% under the Smoot Hawley Tarrif Act it lead to the Great Depression. But let’s hope they’re wrong
@Housing Hunger Games: US economy tanking? LOL. The days of Ireland feeding on the teat of the US might be over.
@Ronan Mc: I absolutely adore his podcast I also love the other hand with Jim Power and Chris Johns
@he didnt take the 120k because he already got it split over 3 years: not without a job
@Housing Hunger Games: We’re already in a recession in Europe (as is America) and that’s been the case for some time now. What Trump is doing is making moves to try and ensure The U.S. has a softer landing and is better positioned to transition out of it. Our ‘leaders’ in Ireland meanwhile are scratching their arses and looking to blame anyone except themselves. Even though it’s been them over the years who made us so dependant on other countries and thus vulnerable to a situation like we’re finding ourselves in now.
@he didnt take the 120k because he already got it split over 3 years: fingers crossed you get your chance
@he didnt take: house prices won’t fall and even if they do it’ll be modest. Not enough swimming naked these days to cause a big house price crash. Besides with the laws in Ireland, good luck to the banks trying to get paid back or even repossess a house
@Temp Stuff: That’s what they reckoned the last time, couldn’t happen, huge shortage of houses blah blah, then bang ……all of a sudden those who had all the reasons in the world why house prices were solid disappeared, not a whisper coming from them, sure Bertie and FF told those warning of a collapse to “commit suicide”.
@he didnt take the 120k because he already got it split over 3 years: not if you can’t borrow and if interest rates go through the ceiling ….
@Jonathan Moloney: our leaders can do feck all to influence global economics – we are a tick on an elephant and the elephant doesn’t care about our issues.
@he didnt take the 120k because he already got it split over 3 years: If you don’t lose your job that is.
@Fiona Wyse: Jim Power is an absolute spoofer and managed to not see the entire global economic crash coming the last time. You can look him up on YouTube vs Morgan Kelly from UCD telling someone who knew exactly what they were talking about that we were in for a soft landing. Still managing to get hired in the media somehow though.
@Jonathan Moloney: First of all Trump ix pumping up the cost of goods for US consumers, raising inflation and tanking the stock market. Your pension is about to mature, too bad. He has no idea what he is doing. Which of our leaders are running around blaming others and who are they blaming exactly. There is of course somebody to blame and he used to work in Willy Wonkas chocolate factory. stirring the chocolate.
@Housing Hunger Games:
there will be a recession Nd guess who is in charge ? the guy that stated that there was never one in 2008. the guy that did nothing and stay quiet during COVID… yeah that guy …the same that did nearly. nervous breakdown at the time because he could not go to America… wow
Economists have been warning for years about the Irish economy’s over-reliance on US headquartered multi-nationals and corporation tax receipts. Looks like we are about to find out if those warnings were warranted or not
@Dave M: Americans are against govt regulation of the “free” market until they’re not
@Dave M: One of the main problems being that if there is a major downturn in the economy, young Irish people can no longer look to the UK as a place of guaranteed employment anymore, with a quick flight back to see the Ma at the weekend. The UK is full to bursting thanks to the EU WEF cabal, the music’s stopped and all the chairs are taken
@Peter Smith: Nonsense, the UK no longer has a strong economy due to low productivity plus Brexit causing financial jobs in London.
@Bat Boy: Get a grip you eejit, the UK is by GDP 6th in the world, Ireland 26th. Are you imagining everybody’s going to be bailing out of the UK and heading for Ireland when it hits the fan? My God almighty
@Dave M: they’re big employers and wi t shift operations overnight… the main risk in the short term is to where their IP resides in future… Trump will need to incentivise them properly before they relocate anything. They know he can’t be trusted. The rest is noise and paranoia
@Dave M: those multinationals not only generate substantial tax for the state but they also are big employers…. can’t see them replacing those workforces that easily and the US will have to match or better tax rates to incentivise change. Right now Trumps solution is tariffs which are a stick to multinationals exporting to the US. Sticks are not incentives.
@Dave M: They can warn all they want. We already know. What’s your alternative?
@Peter Smith: WEF (Eyeroll).
But Pascal ,and others were at pains to tell us ,none of this would happen.It has been brought to their attention time and again over reliance on multi national companies that over inflating our gdp making us appear to be rich kids on the block ,when we all know that is not the truth
@KO: Never forget Pascal fought tooth and nail not to take the Apple money and cost the taxpayers a tidy sum in legal fees.
@Jp Cleary: absolutely,I think almost 6 million alone in fees ..also major investment loss and money was sitting in a normal AC not invested ,could have at very least in all that time doubled it..
@Jp Cleary: yea the 14bn didn’t make up for the fees…gtfoh
@Bri Lye: yea…. if he took the money first day and invested it properly rather than spending years fighting against it….imagine how much it could have been.
@Jp Cleary: even if he’d just invested it in Apple shares…..
what you really trying to say is can 80.000 of our best Irish emigrate to another country and we get are ipas replantation programme in full swing ,80.000 jobs are not going to go just corrupt fffg traitor’s trying their old tactics to scare the crap out of the voters to keep in line
100% of the Irish people said they don’t care about that narrative you’re hung up on and rehashing, of all the seats up for grabs ye lot couldn’t even get one. Even in a PR-STV voting system
@Housing Hunger Games: yawn, – the only direct vote regarding immigration was the 2004 one to limit citizenship for some people born in Ireland to Immigrants that hadn’t got Irish citizenship.
This was carried by 79% in favour.
The figures would be the same again if we were allowed to vote on the scammigration that is presently destroying the country.
@Thomas Sheridan: ye lost. Zero seats
@jn: It’s you tying to put a particular spin on the story. Are all the potential job loses Irish? If it suited your narrative you would tell us all the jobs were going to immigrants. The only traitors are the ones giving allegiance to parties outside the jurisdiction.
@Thomas Sheridan: Good auld Tommy. One of the crowd who blame their own poor choices on immigrants. Bless you, the penny will drop one day that your miserable life is of your own making. Start making the changes to better yourself rather than blaming others.
@Vincent Alexander: exactly. A great day for the Trump supporters here.
@Sun Rise: poor scrote thinks that if all immigrants were deported he would get a job. Bet you he is those townies from a riff raff area
@Sun Rise: I’m honestly grand, and I have worked for years with legal immigrants and have great time for them.
It’s the illegal scammigrants im concerned about that are destroying the country for the upcoming generation.
@Thomas Sheridan: +1 Thomas, some people just go ah sure it’s only costing a few billion a year, what’s that in the grand scheme, not understanding that a few billion plus the other missing billions means we are being cheated left right and center, hence flailing health system, no houses, poor infrastructure all over the place, and getting worse.
@jn: huh
How many TDs will lose their jobs
@Martin O Donnell: ZERO
@Martin O Donnell: the Dail needs to be slimmed down to approx 100 TDs…… and 12 ministers…. with bigger constituencies and more votes needed to be elected. Candidates should be vetted and qualified over a number of metrics to be allowed go forward for election. Same goes for senators and presidents. Oops mr. McGregor ….
This was talked about when Michael Martin was in the White House…..right? Tell me it was.
@Keth 417: Let’s say Trump adverted to it…
@Keth 417: nah that was just a bit of blarney …cringeworthy stuff …just the usual shite
@Keth 417: Rep.Senator on first trip to China accompanied by CEO of Pfizer (amongst others). Could be bad news for Newbridge.
Should have thought of that while the government had been bad-mouthing Trump for the past few years!
@Brian Hunt: Thankfully none of the opposition got in,they were worse.
@Brian Hunt: freedom of speech
You’re one of thos guys who laughed at all the bully’s jokes and gave him the apple out of your lunchbox.
@Brian Hunt:
He deserved it. He should be in prison.
@Brian Hunt: Trump would have persued his policies regardless of what politicians here said.
Stop using GDP as a measure of economy. It has been useless for Ireland for many years, and described somewhat pejoratively as “leprechaun economics”.
Start using adjusted GNP and we could see how any changes really effect the economy and citizens.
So start planning now no?
@Ciarán: ah here. We don’t want any of that mad talk on here.
@Ciarán: lol… decades ago
@Ciarán: recession = no requirement for metro or water from Shannon to dublin. There , 25 billion saved.
Between the Trump tariffs and the giving free houses to anyone but the Irish on top of free health care free fix your car free driving lessons free free free etc it’s not hard to see the the tax payers are going to be fitted with a much larger saddle and whip
Dump all the racist DEI policies for a start. Back off from censorship of free speech. Show them we do still share the core values, though Europe has gone way off course..
@Sickof thisshit: Racist Dei policies? Can you explain that assuming you know what Racism is and you know what Dei stands for?
@Sickof thisshit: That’s funny. Made me laugh. Thanks.
@Bert Carolan: Do you know what DEI is? It requires favouring one group over another based on race, which is the definition of racism.
@Sickof thisshit: Who’s them ? Musk and his car salesman ? The vast majority of people in this country do not share their core values.. mainly because they’re devoid of any and don’t give two flying flks about people. You just don’t get it do you ? Their vested interest is themselves and the billionaire class.Go way with your snivelling bs.. They are pathological liars.. Be a cold day in hell before I heel to those priks and these imaginary ” core values”. Off with ya to Murica so..seen as you share their values lad..
@Sickof thisshit: Ireland has equality legislation that prevents preferential treatment, the US does not. Any EDI policies here apply to everyone equally and Ireland has freedom of expression not US style free speech.
@Brian: Ladies and gentlemen, this is the guy who will sink the country along with his Communist pals. A guaranteed Hamas teatowel wearer shouting death to the Jews to fill his empty weekends. Of course, the last people shouting that in any significant numbers were you know who
@Brian: TDS
@Ulick: It does not require favouring one group over another, it involves treating everybody equally regardless. You know that of course but it doesn’t fit into your warped view of humanity.
@Paul C: yet some companies get fined for not hiring from minority groups,and get paid a bonus for everyone they employ ..so totally encouraging not hiring natives…
@Bert Carolan: I love that story. It’s so lovely, now go and tell it to your mates setting fire to Teslas all over the place. You know, the decent, kind thoughtful types who believe in free speech and everybody being equal
@Ulick: No that’s not what it is. It simply means ensuring that everyone gets an equal opportunity to apply and be considered for jobs, promotions etc. Not only people who are white men. It is not based on race but also applies to women, people with disabilities, different religions, sexuality, people who come from poorer backgrounds. Any minority. It does not mean a woman or non white person automatically gets a job. Under tRump disabled applicants are considered DEI. If Stephen Hawking were applying for a scientific role today his application would be dismissed. This is the level of nonsense people against DEI believe in.
@Peter Smith: Another one of your 40 accounts to mute Ken.. Alas, your perversion for trolling and lies is of zero interest to me .. toodle-oo.
@Heather Knowles: Patent utter nonsense this. Trump has an administration chock full of women and POC if you’ve been taking any notice at all. But he’s not going to bow down to people who hero worship the likes of George Floyd the man who robbed a pregnant woman, holding a gun to her belly
@Brian: You’re f*cking barking Brian, where are the other 39 accounts pray tell
@Sickof thisshit: so you fell for the distraction politics. It’s the economy that working people and families are more interested in because it’s nett income, job security and buying power that really get them going… not what your be orientation or colour might be.
It might be argued, If the US multi-nationals leave, so as to circumvent a loss in profits….this may well become Ireland’s second potato famine. A busy day tomorrow around the tech/phrama conference tables. On the bright side, we make the best whisky right here.
@Keth 417: And the bleak economic forecast will drive us to drink it all ourselves !!!. Maybe McGregor can save us , he has all the influence in Washington now .The bowl of shamrock most likely ended up in the oval office toilet .
@Keth 417: Don’t be ridiculous. A lot of people have been praying for a recession as it’s the only thing that will bring house prices and rents down.
@Seamus Enright: How do you fund that without jobs?
@Seamus Enright: are you one of my clan
The whole planet (except Russia) needs to band together to insulate themselves against this orange idiot for the next 4 years.
Also keep women away from him.
They have 400 million, 2-4 billion can win.
Also start trading oil in euros that way we don’t need to keep dollars on hand.
Companies would rather keep inside on the 2 billion rather than the predator in chief.
@Patrick Kavanagh:
With the greatest respect, you first three points are either immaterial and disingenuous,.or just wont work.The dollars idea, maybe. If anything, Trump is looking out for his country. A lesson many countries in the EU might pay attention to. Ireland in taking in the big tech & big pharma was doing it’s bit, but it now seems such plans are castles built on sand. I hope not. But luckily we have some financial nuts stored away for the initial bang.
@Patrick Kavanagh:
@Keth 417: Trump is looking out for himself. He cares not about the USA or its citizens.
@Sun Rise: Course he doesn’t you flipping wet wipe, he hasn’t got a patriotic bone in his body. Take your tinfoil hat off and don’t be so ridiculous. Of course, Sleepy Joe and Kamala were both utterly patriotic to the core, with no self interest in their agenda. Mon dieu
@Keth 417: we won’t have that nest egg too much longer if we keep paying out 2 billion a year to keep our Guests in hotels ect.
@billy Cowman: Thank the Lord there are still some people who can make 2+2 add up to 4. It’s as simple as that, I mean where’s this magic money that pays for all this?
@Patrick Kavanagh: you’re deluded if you think Trump is in charge… he just thinks he is… they feed him things he likes to say, photo ops and lots of grovelling but they are running the dhow….
@Keth 417: Trump has done nothing ‘for his country’,
everything has been done for his billionaire pals and Russia
Maybe Europe should look at curtailing us tech firms like Netflix Twitter/x and Facebook. A lot of the services that we use are us companiies and perhaps the EU needs to look at that balance of trade. It may hit Ireland but these are huge companies
Suddenly the bubble is going to burst. Sssssssss
America will be a big problem for ireland as a country we will have to find other forms of trade outside us thetly have a lunatic in charge
@Anthony Ross: if it was just bilateral,I think could work out something,but we have all of Europe attached to us ,and Mr T not happy with them and it is going to hinder our trading
@Anthony Ross: Here’s me thinking as long as the EU is onside, then all is fine and dandy. Of course Mutti Merkel wasn’t a great help, but she’s slithered into the undergrowth now. Where’s these other trading partners that’ll sort things out?
@KO: there’s always something. Were small and duck and dive. Never was easy so we just keep ducking and diving. Better to start looking at BRiCS opportunities than at the US which is going pear shaped rapidly.
Yet, our government has been
pi $$! ʼng away money as if it falls from the sky.
And if that isn’t enough, our pro Hamazz lobby are determined to bring about self-harm with the pointless OTB
If Trump imposes these tariffs, then the EU will retaliate with the same high tariffs.
The real losers will be the consumers who will suffer. This Orange Man does very strange things.
@ZA “Humanitas”: yes that’s true. But if the tit-for-tat persists to its logical conclusion, then the EU will be the bigger loser as it exports about US$300BN more to the US than it imports
@ZA “Humanitas”: Bit of respect please for the tone of a person’s skin whatever about the tone of their speech. A few years ago if you had referred to Mr Obama as This Black Man there would have been uproar.
@Kev Kerr: not necessarily. Depends if tariffs are targeted or broad.
There are also certain imports into US that depend on IP in EU and specifically IE.
@brian pope: indeed, good point
@Kev Kerr: and, to quote Shakespeare……’ therin lies the rub’. Regardless of anyone’s opinion of President Trump the US V European trade deficit was always in Europe’s favour. interesting commentary on US based media sites….. they’re loving the prospect of a ‘trade war’
@Finbarr Spain: In fairness, Mr Obama’s skin tone is natural. Mr Trump’s, not so much.
There exists some very simple measures that can be implemented to reduce the reliance on the tax-take from USA based companies. The most obvious is to increase incentives to create jobs locally in indigenous Irish firms. While we still benefit from tax largesse we should immediately reduce the rates of Capital Gains Tax (where ours is the 4th highest in Europe) and of VAT, increase government grants, introduce a requirement that banks make low interest-rate loans to Small/medium size enterprises, etc. Do not wait for a repeat of the ‘brain drain’ of the 1980’s when overly-high tax rates forced the most capable to emigrate. I ask our decision-makers to be proactive and do not wait. A tidal wave is coming at us. We need decisive decisions now. We need our leaders to lead. We need solutions.
@Informed: What’s the expression? Something Horse Bolted Door?
I’ve always said it and I’ll say it again, the Irish ruling Psyche is to react instead of acting. We-had-decades-to-prepare.
@Informed: easiest is to broaden the tax brackets. far too many workers not paying any tax, or paying too little tax.
@Informed: Europe halted that trick with us
@Informed: go on, create an Irish firm and start employing people. Go on, go on…
A recession in this country while awful would be very interesting. Would we see a collapse in house prices, and how would we pay our massive public sector wage bill and pensions? Definitely would be the end of the metro, not that it was ever likely to be built, and maybe we might have to do with less ministers and TDs which definitely would be a good thing.
@The Firestarter: The government mite b forced to grasp the nettle , all those extra people they seemed to b so willing to accept mite find that all the handouts rationed.
@Joan Grennan: Couldn’t agree more, only let those in who have a job to go to and somewhere to live. That’s what we did for decades in England and America.
Fantastic to see the house of make believe is about to fall and fall hard.
@Rian O’Sullivan: hopefully it effects you
@Simon Carr: nope I am all good thanks through proper strategies from a financial perspective. Sounds like you don’t have such foresight.
@Rian O’Sullivan: 208 notes, every Thursday. Rain or shine. What a strategy!
It’s pretty simple. We already know the threat that tariffs pose. What is the Irish government planning to do about it? Why aren’t they on the phone to their buddies in the EU Commission to tell them to stop behaving in a provocative manner towards Trump when it comes to trade? The EU already slaps so many boneheaded tariffs on American products. These include a 10% tariff on cars, a 50% tariff on dairy products, a 20% tariff on cereal grains, a 25% on alcoholic beverages and a 20% tariff on steel and aluminium among many others. Tariffs are just a tax on consumers and they have never worked. If the EU really cared about avoiding another redundant trade war, they would be looking to reduce their tariffs and equalise them with America. You don’t put out a fire by adding more fuel to it.
And we continue to give away billions and billions to Ukraine and every other nation in the world we should be saving our money for a possible recession and then the government will say oops we are concerned we don’t want to fall off a cliff edge and blah blah blah with all your terminology lessons will be learned while we have our massive pensions good luck to the rest of Ireland thanks for voting us in again laughing all the way to the bank
So… we’re still getting the jets and ships…or is Christmas cancelled already?
The Bubble is about to burst…..again!!!
It is astounding that there ate people on here who will be directly and detrimentally impacted by Trump’s actions yet they still worship him. It defies logic how their racist and hateful leanings are so deep that they are prepared to suffer in order to support Trump. The insane thing is…..Trump does not give a toss about those who worship him on here. You just do his dirty work.
@Sun Rise: it’s rather amusing and sad at the same time.
@Sun Rise: yes i think there’s probably quite a few people on here that would prefer we were completely broke and in recession if it meant less foreigners
@Sun Rise: perfectly put!
@Sun Rise: wise up, people don’t have to worship Trump (or McGregor) to understand that some of what they are saying is correct.
@Sun Rise: unless the tarriffs effect the scratch I doubt it will affect the majority of those lads greatly.
Making America Great Again.
Could er please get some TD’s with brain power and a willingness to fight for the Irish economy.
Why spend billions on lawyer fees to avoid accepting money that legally is ours
Start planning A and B different scenarios and how to react instead of stocking the head in the sand that is what we pay you for Pascal love up to your name the programming language.
Invest in proper rainy day funds don’t let us hang dry and run off with small talks like later I said so. Be inventive, be bold.
If you are not going to plan then leave your office.
Look at Asia, Singapore does not produce a lot but their economy is striving I want that here in Ireland don’t blindly follow EU be creative.
Stop all these data centre build on the cost of the Irish tax payers backbone.
The US is going hard right not even Republican.
All Presedential decrees bypassing Congress and the Republican party as well as defying the Judiciary.
This will come to a very sad end for friends and delight for dictators and oligarchs.
Hope I’m wrong.
It’s amazing how this government can find any excuse to deflect blame to everyone else apart from themselves.
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out a downturn is coming, when developers stop building houses recessions follow. We have the biggest housing crises ever, and developers have stopped building apartments and most houses are unaffordable.
Get ready
There is an enormous lack of workers at the moment and a great supply of work . Maybe not all suitable but it could take the strain out of the work and workforce.
@hans vos: explain please – construction and healthcare?
Let’s be honest, America in now the new North Korea under Trump, but for how long will it last. Trump is one person, upsetting most Americans who do not like the new North Korea they now live in . His tariff war is distressing investors. He be riding the train to the impeachment process.
I wonder what the public/ private split is in these 80k job losses?
And will the people who came to Ireland to get jobs in these multinationals stay in Ireland.
Boom to bust the ffg way to rob the citizens, They learned well from the brits
Waffle waffle trying to deflect attention away from what’s really happening
Paschal would tell us today was Friday if he thought he’d get away with it.
80,000 job that haven’t happened yet. Sure, that’s pie in the sky thinking..how may are going to be lost to AI and robots.. far far more.
The government will love this they will have plenty of empty buildings to house the immigrants they will be delighted
@Albert mckenna: Bert you are missing the point ,vote
We should cut all ties with the USA. They are no longer our allies.
I thought we were in the EU re tariffs issue rather than feel compelled to cowing down to Trump and his likes by ‘little’ Ireland alone.
have your say