THE SUPREME COURT ruling that Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (Ceta) cannot be ratified by the Oireachtas unless legislation is changed is seen as a major blow to the Taoiseach and Tánaiste in particular.
Both Micheál Martin and Leo Varadkar have been at pains to promote the trade-deal, stating that it can only bring good things.
“Why would people be opposed to a free-trade agreement with Canada, can someone answer that?” the Taoiseach asked reporters in Blackpool after the court decision was made public.
Varadkar said that while it is a “disappointing” decision, “the Government remains committed to ratifying the CETA agreement in full”.
The court challenge was taken against the State by Green Party TD Patrick Costello, who had argued that CETA is unconstitutional.
In its judgment, the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution of Ireland precludes the Government from ratifying CETA as Irish law night stands – by a majority of four to three.
However, the Court – by a majority of six to one – also ruled that certain amendments of the Arbitration Act 2010 would, if affected, permit ratification without breaching the Constitution.
If the legislation is amended, a referendum on the matter could be avoided. The Court said that is a matter for the Oireachtas.
“Our initial assessment is that a referendum is not required and that ratification can follow once some changes are made to domestic law,” Varadkar said.
The key issue now is whether the coalition can convince enough of the Green Party’s TDs to make the legislative changes that are needed, rather than holding a referendum. Sources within the party suggest this is unlikely.
Before today’s court ruling, Green Party leader Eamon Ryan had repeatedly affirmed his support for a ratification of the deal.
Sinn Féin has already come out to say that CETA cannot be ratified without a referendum, with the Social Democrats saying that the government has been guilty of trying to “ram the deal through the Dáil”.
In some ways, holding a referendum may well prove to be the easier option for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael – with some within the Green Party saying FF-FG are facing into the “impossible” if they think they can turn Green votes to rubber stamp the amendments needed.
When asked about getting the Greens on side, the Taoiseach said the Green Party will also be giving the judgement a “full assessment”.
‘Work through this’
“Like many issues across Government, we will work through this,” he added.
However optimistic Varadkar and Martin might be about getting legislation amended with the Greens’ blessing, sources within the Green Party have said such a thought is “deluded”.
“Absolutely not” was another reaction when asked if the Greens could be convinced, with sources stating that the court’s decision today upheld the concerns so the idea that the Greens who are against CETA would then facilitate an amendment is “not realistic”.
There are also concerns that revisiting the trade legislation would open up the floodgates beyond just CETA.
If it takes 12-18 months to try ratify amendments, the next question for the government parties is whether they could want to ratify CETA just before an election?
Martin said the “preliminary assessment is that a referendum will not be required, an amendment to domestic legislation will suffice – but, of course, we have to do a detailed assessment of the judgment”.
The Attorney General will assess the ruling “in good detail”, he said, before the Government makes “a clear decision on that”.
So, we can expect the Martin and Varadkar trying to kick CETA to touch for a time, but ultimately a decision will have to be made.
Option A is to hold a referendum and put CETA to the people. Option B is to face what could be an insurmountable task of flipping Green politicians to vote in favour of amending existing legislation for something they care so passionately about they took it to the Supreme Court.
CETA has put this coalition Government between a rock and a hard place, with no easy way out.
To embed this post, copy the code below on your site
have your say