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LAST UPDATE | 17 Nov 2021
CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER Dr. Tony Holohan has said the “responsible thing” for public health was not to plan “major socialisation events” like Christmas parties.
Holohan said this evening that the spread of Covid-19 in this country and the pressure on healthcare services meant that normal levels of Christmas socialising was not advisable.
“We really do not have the capacity as a country to have significant Christmas-type levels of socialisation in the run into Christmas if we’re if we’re to turn this around,” Holohan told The Hard Shoulder on Newstalk.
I think a very responsible thing for people who are in a position, whether they’re organising Christmas parties or where they’re responsible for the health and well-being and welfare of their staff and their customers, a responsible thing to do would be to conclude that now is not is not an ideal time to be planning major socialisation events that don’t need to happen.
Asked about weddings that may be planned in the forthcoming weeks, Holohan said that weddings are a “different situation” as they “an important milestone” and are planned long in advance
His comments come as a senior minister said earlier that “last thing” the government wants is tough restrictions in the run up to Christmas.
Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney said the government will assess the impact of the measures in the coming weeks to see “whether we’ve done enough” but that further restrictions can’t be ruled out.
The Deputy CMO Dr Ronan Glynn said this evening that up to 200,000 people could be infected in December but that it is not “inevitable”.
Glynn told Six One on RTÉ there is no “silver bullet” to prevent the surge in cases: “It’s really important, I think, to move the commentary away from what has been part of the commentary . . . that there’s a silver bullet, that antigen testing is going to sort this out, that boosters vaccines are going to sort this out, that more PCR testing is going to sort this out.”
Instead, he said method such as mask wearing, cutting down social contacts and avoiding crowded locations will help prevent the spread of infection.
Earlier today, Holohan warned that the new measures introduced by government would not be sufficient if people who were symptomatic ignored the advice to self-isolate and avail of a PCR test.
Holohan said that NPHET modelling showed that there could be a minimum of 200,000 cases of Covid-19 across the month of December but that this was “not inevitable” if people followed public health advice.
Holohan said that he was not predicting the number of cases as they were preventable but that it could be “double” that 200,000 figure.
Over the past two weeks, over 55,000 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in this country, leading to an increase in people hospitalised with the virus.
“We think that about 2%, in other words 20 out of every 1,000, of those cases might occur will end up in hospital. All cases will be advised to restrict to self-isolate, and their contacts will be advised to restrict their movements,” Holohan told RTÉ’s News at One.
That’s a lot of people in hospital potentially 4000 or more. It’s a lot of people being asked to self isolate and restrict movements, none of those people are infected yet.
“A time of year when none of us wants to be faced with going into hospital or having a loved one going into hospital. None of us wants to be faced with being advised to restrict our movements or to self isolate.”
He added: “If you’re going to have an infection in December that infection hasn’t been picked up yet, so a minimum of 200,000 cases occurring in December, all of which are preventable.”
Public health measures
A number of measures were announced yesterday as part of efforts to stem Covid cases in hospital, among them a new midnight end for pubs and nightclubs and the reimposition of advice that people should work from home unless it’s “absolutely necessary”.
In a further move which attempts to limit the spread of the virus, anyone living in a household of someone who is a confirmed case of Covid-19 is to be asked to restrict their movements for five days.
Speaking last night after the measures were announced, Taoiseach Micheál Martin said that NPHET had advised on the measures but that it could not be guaranteed that they would be sufficient to bring cases to a manageable level.
Asked today was the government therefore delaying the inevitability that further restrictions would be required, Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney said he doesn’t believe this to be the case.
“No, I hope not but of course we will have to wait and see how the virus behaves and the numbers in ICU and the numbers in hospital, we are predicting now that somewhere between 1,000 to 2,000 people could be in hospital with Covid and the numbers in ICU could could go above 200. That puts huge pressure on our system,” he said.
Speaking about the new restrictions, he said:
This is about trying to avoid a more severe restrictions on people. It’s about effectively recalibrating our response and recognising that large numbers of people in nightclubs and late night bars is a risk factor that we think it’s responsible to remove for now.
Coveney said that he’s aware that the effective curfew on nightclubs will have consequences on the sector but that “it’s not the job of government not to make popular decisions”.
“I think it’s the right decision, we can’t rule out further restriction and we will simply have to follow the behavior of this virus in the weeks ahead to see whether we’ve done enough to protect society through winter, or whether we need to do more,” he added.
“But certainly the last thing the government wants is another severe series of restrictions in the build up to Christmas.”
You can’t provide guarantees on anything when it comes to Covid, that’s surely one thing we’ve learned, we’ve all learned over the last 18 months or so. And we have to respond to the evidence as it’s presented.
The minister said that in the coming weeks people will see “an acceleration of boosters” and that he has spoken to his counterpart in Israel who outlined the effectiveness of boosters in preventing hospitalisations.
In his interview this afternoon, Holohan outlined what people who are syptmoatic and close contacts of a confirmed case should do.
“People who are cases and who are symptomatic, they simply must self-isolate and they get a PCR test, not an antigen test a PCR test. So if you have symptoms, stay at home, arrange for a PCR test, and if those people can comply with the advice to self isolation, and the people who are their close to contacts particularly those who live with them, can restrict their movements and be antigen tested as they restrict those movements, we think that is the behaviour that is most important.”
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I’d prefer severe restrictions now for a few weeks and get numbers down so we can enjoy Christmas and visit family without figures still in the thousands.
@murt de murty: like last year when they said at the end of October that we’d lockdown for 3 weeks, it lasted 8 months.
@Prince Adamo Giuseppe: they are softening us for the blow, lockdown in december
@Prince Adamo Giuseppe: And why exactly do you think that happened ? Government ministers and NPHET members going door to door spreading the virus ? Those same people organising and attending house parties ? Nope. That would us, the general public who chose to ignore some pretty simple advice. If we all put hands on heart I’d imagine there’s very few of us who can honestly say we acted responsibly and totally in line with public health advice in the run up to, and over, last Christmas.
@Prince Adamo Giuseppe: 8 months of different restrictions,fix it for you.
@murt de murty: I’ll be having visiting and having Christmas dinner with the family regardless if we’re in lockdown or not.
@murt de murty: Implementing the current measures, particularly contact tracing would be a better option than full lock down. Also they have missed the boat xmas is in 5 weeks. Even closing the country completely (not advocating that myself) the cases will be sky high at xmas.
@murt de murty: Steady as she goes now and through Christmas is a much better option. Severe restrictions now and we’d come out of the traps like mad men for Christmas. January would be a nightmare.
@murt de murty: I half agree with you however a ‘normal’ Christmas will in itself drive a wave of cases in January……and round and round it goes
@Padraig Nolan: A “normal” Christmas. Lol. Into the neighbour’s house Christmas morning for a glass (not a shot but a full glass) of whiskey. Off up to the pub for the christmas day pub drink…. The dream goes on.
@Franny Ando: Correct.
@Tommy Roche: speak for yourself, I only did the 6 pubs of Christmas last year and I’ll likely only do the 5 this year, and it’s nothing to do with me hitting my 40s
@murt de murty: it’s not that easy. we need to reduce contacts… zoom Xmas dinners etc
@Tommy Roche: sure let’s conveniently forget the people who travelled home for Christmas from outside of Ireland and were allowed do so. Personally I’m getting very tired of doing what I’m told and then being told the prolonging of this is my fault based on the actions of others. Very sick of it.
@Kevin Norris: Who told you it was your fault?
@Prince Adamo Giuseppe: correct. How can people be out of work and businesses shut again for lengthy periods. Not sustainable.
@Franny Ando: 100%, it was unnecessary and only served to concentrate interactions into a condensed time frame and therefore drove cases up
@Merlin Lancelot: nphet doing a winter coup because our incompetent government not capable of solving this problem
@murt de murty: holohan says our vacines won’t stop the spread of delta varient so unless we get a serious roll out of booster we will have lockdowns for a lot longer than a few weeks just like last year
@Vonvonic: thats implied in every ‘you must do more lecture” instead of calling out the actual behaviours and groups. One thing I’m absolutely certain of over the last 18 months and to this day is that COVID does not go to school as it already knows everything.
@Tommy Roche: Let’s try this again as my comment removed. Censorship journal style. Last October Holohan returned and put the country, even though numbers had started to decrease, into a six week lockdown reopening 1st week of December. The deaf, blind and stupid could see this was going to be carnage. It was also going against the recommendation of the acting CMO at the time Ronan Glynn.
@MrJohne: Zoom sounds like a good idea,………….until someone says” pass the gravy please “
@murt de murty: are you tapped or something? That exact scenario was proposed last Christmas and stayed in place.
@Tommy Roche: well said. The government can’t win. They’ll be accused of being too slow, too hardline etc. The issue is that a large cohort of people are sleep walking us into more restrictions.
@murt de murty: lock yourself up please. I’ve done my share since the start, ensured I got my vaccine. Now I want my life back.
@Tommy Roche: virus’s does not care its either isolation Lockdown for 6 months and then what…. We need to live with the virus.
@Tommy Roche: I was responsible. Most of my Christmas shopping was done either locally or online, with one day in Cork City shopping. I had a meal out booked with my parents, and I felt under the weather. It wasn’t covid, but I still didn’t go with them. Mainly because I wouldn’t have enjoyed it. I carry hand sanitiser in my pocket at all times. I bought food to go and sat outside eating it the day I went shopping. The only socialising I did that day was pausing to chat with a couple of neighbours I bumped into for a couple of minutes.
I know I was responsible, as so far, neither I nor my parents, whom I live with, have caught covid. I’ve definitely had symptoms, but thats par for the course with being me. Many of the symptoms are just part of regular life for me.
@Merlin Lancelot: They can go and f right off. We were sold the idea of 90% vaccination to exit restrictions. How about go after those who refuse the vaccine. People just wont buy this idea after everything they have gone through. How on earth is the pub curfew sensible. There will be hundreds gathering on streets at 12 midnight after been ejected. They are pushing the younger generation into totally uncontrolled house parties
3 pubs in my local town…1 played it by the book the other 2 were free for alls might as well have been prepandemic..
Enforcement is needed
@Mike: friend of mine is in the entertainment industry, he sent me a video of his gig on Saturday night, the place was rammed. Everyone on top of each other. Guidelines me hole. Is it any wondet numbers are on the up with stuff like this.
@Derek Lyster: Yet the covid numbers from hospitality are extremely low.
@Franny Ando: names are been taking at pubs/nightclubs,I like my pint,too old for nightclubs but little to zero about covid certs,I’m double jab,only twice my covid pass checked and only once with id,I’m a guilty as everyone,I still had my pint and didn’t leave any of those places.
@Franny Ando: wrong
@Mike: That is the most important point. All the rules in the world are no use unless severe penalties are introduced for establishment owners AND people found in them in contravention…
@Mike: yes, this sector promised to police covid certs but in the end didn’t bother
@Franny Ando: perhaps but it was like a normal new years eve on this video and that can’t be good for halting the spread of the virus. I will keep an eye on the covid numbers for that particular county to see if there is a jump. Ghe video was from Saturday night so peopke should be starting to feel poorly now.
@Mike: makes no difference most people are in a pub with a small group it’s not like their licking the walls
@Tracktrack: No you are. All you have to do is go to H.S.E website the numbers are there for all to view.
@Derek Lyster: In fairness I have no idea regarding any video. I’m just going on the info re outbreaks on hse website. Personally any pub or restaurant I visited since opening all adhered to covid cert regulations.
@Franny Ando: if u were in a bar that was packed, and wasn’t following the rules. Would u admit it???. Most don’t
@Derek Lyster:
Why didn’t your friend stop playing and get out .
No he waited till he got paid
@Karl Mc Cauley: If I went to a bar that wasn’t following the rules and I felt uncomfortable I’d just go elsewhere.
@Daniel Roche: 95% jabbed what do you think a cert does exactly??
@Franny Ando: in 61% of cases there is no known source of transmission. Chances are, many of those 61% are hospitality sector related, but because of how transient the sector is (you do t get the same people in a pub or restaurant every single day, unlike an office, for example), its harder to confidently pinpoint the source.
‘Believe us, this is the last thing we want to do but we will do it. Or maybe we won’t. But then again we might…’ The mood music is getting louder by the day and it seems we’re being prepared for bad news. I know it’s a dynamic situation but either do something meaningful soon or don’t. Stop all this equivocation and treating us like naughty children and make a decision soon so we can make some plans for Christmas that won’t fall apart at the last minute due to late government decisions…
@William Tallon: ya cause the government want places close so we have less money into government coffers,makes so much sense, maybe they are making late decisions incase things improve but I’m a positive person.
@William Tallon: Daniel Roche is Tony holohan in disguise, pass it on
@Michael Oats: news to me,I’m 35 with a few hairs, didn’t realize I look that old.
@William Tallon: But this is what they’ve done all along Will. Release a few nuggets of information through the media. Then sit back & watch the same media figures salivating over it for days/weeks. Then observe the plebs falling out over it. Then they allow more info get released based on the shifting public mood. NPHET & the Gov play good cop/bad cop. Then by the time the additional measures are announced, the majority breathe a sigh of relief that they’re not as bad as they feared. Round & round we go.
@Daniel Roche: I’ve no idea why you’ve sarcastically referred to the government somehow wanting places to close for no good reason. I’ve no idea why they would want to do that as it would indeed be rather self-defeating. Things may of course improve between now and Christmas but I think your positivity may be misplaced in that regard. Early planning for a worst case scenario would definitely be in order at this stage. My comment was essentially in relation to getting some clarity from the government about what any such plans might entail and also being treated like adults in relation to same.
@William Tallon: they want things open,means more into the government coffers,things closed the opposite,like I really don’t understand why you think they want things closed,it makes zero sense.
@Daniel Roche: Did you actually read what I wrote or just skim through it? Or should I say did you understand what I wrote? Or did you simply wilfully choose to ignore what I said so you could make a point that bears no relation to it? I don’t think the government wants things closed. You don’t need a degree in economics to realise that closing businesses would be and has been detrimental to the economy. It would make zero sense for the government to close things just because it can. What also makes zero sense is you inferring that I somehow think it wants to do so. You really must start paying more attention…
@William Tallon: yes I did and your response just proved it,you just want to moan but have zero alternative, thanks for backing me up
@Daniel Roche: I have no idea what you’re on about to be honest or what my response is supposed to have proven to you. I’m beginning to think you inhabit a different reality than most of us! Complaining about a lack of clarity is a perfectly reasonable thing to do. Not sure why you refer to it as moaning. What alternatives am I supposed to outline? I don’t have any as I’m not qualified to do that. I simply want to know what the government’s plans are in relation to whatever Covid case scenarios might present themselves between now and the end of the year. Given how rapidly the situation could change they must have several ideas and alternatives in mind. Being honest with people rather than leave them hanging should be a priority for government although you don’t appear to think so…
They can blame the pubs, clubs, schools, offices, students, anti vaxxers, house parties, the GAA, Penny’s, Mary and John from down the road. The reality of it is it’s the absolute shambolic health service we have is the biggest problem and the government are at fault for that. We will never get out of this mess because it’s going to be the same thing every year not enough hospital beds, not enough ICU beds, not enough nurses and staff.
https://twitter.com/caulmick/status/1460346879259164680?t=-SZtJPOHsHAWiXayJAppdg&s=08
Are the Journal going pick up on the story above or ignore it.
Doesn’t look like the vaccines are going to be our saving grace like we were lead to believe. For some reason I don’t think the antiviral pills coming on stream will be as successful as we’re being lead to believe either. I think think we’ll get by this pandemic until we reach some kind of natural herd immunity, at the rate we’re going it might not not take that long! Thankfully, because of the vaccines, we won’t suffer as much mortality and severe disease to reach herd immunity as we would have without them.
@DK: do ur research its been widely made known by immunologists that herd immunity isn’t possible because of the delta variant and potential other variants down the line.if it was possible y haven’t a single country in the world achieved it with far more cases than ours.
@Sean Mccabe: what’s the end goal so?
@ZD: slowly but surely build up more capacity in the hospitals that ain’t easy gonna take a mammoth effort to recruit the staff also.hopefully more people come forward to be vaccinated that will also help ease pressure on the hospitals the science and data backs that up ur more like to need hospital bring unvaccinated.so with all that in place when there is more rises in cases down the road we have the capability in hospital to handle it because less people shud need ICU care, finally we can be in a position to live with covid it will move from a pandemic to endemic
@DK: I fear herd immunity is impossible. It’s a mutating virus, much like the flu. Flu vaccines do not protect one forever. We need new ones each year as the flu virus changes. Same with covid. Covid is here to stay and vaccines and meds are our only way to limit its impact. Much like the flu, I think we will be losing many people each year due to covid. I guess we need to find a way to live with that. It would help if the unvaccinated stopped being selfish and played a part in public health.
Need ID, to be produced for entry to with covid cert as some are just screenshoting each others
@Ronan Lawler: The way around that has already been found. People have been messaging other people with the same name as them and asking them for a copy of there Digital COVID Cert. So their name on the cert matched their I’d.
@Roy Dowling: date of birth is on the covid cert and wouldn’t match their ID’s
@Kieran_94: who’s looking?
@Roy Dowling: Give it a rest Roy, you’re talking out of your hole.
@Breda Kelly: You could always check their rings . Doesn’t that give an indication how old one is ?
@JustMeHere: why would I make that up?
@JustMeHere: as usual!!
@Ronan Lawler: 95%vaxed propably half the 5%out and about ha e already had it. The cert has zero impact now…. How can this not be obvious.
Time to put in a fortnight circuit breaker. I would have thought the last thing the Government wants is more people catching Covid, getting sick with long Covid and dying. The interview with Dr Navarro on Clare Byrne radio said that there must be test and trace into the community to break community transmission. That is where this government is failing. In schools, by opening up, at the border and ports and with under resourced track and trace.
@feargal de cantuin: that time has passed. Would this have been a runner during the flu epidemic of 2009 I think not.
Tony Holohan – Cervical Cancer You decide.
Didn’t Donnelly say that Nphets modelling shows hospitals to be at their peak in mid-October (last month), plateau and then gradually decrease?? Either they’re incompetent and blindly leading the public into cul de sacs or saying one thing while ‘knowing’ its not going to play out the same. These aren’t stupid people what exactly is happening? And why is their models consistently wrong (high when they expect it to be low and low when they expect to be high)
@John Egan: maybe they have the same problem that alot of country’s are going through at the moment but sure it’s only happening in Ireland.
@John Egan: It was mid-September first, then mid-October. Then before the easing on 22nd, the new model said end Nov. Now the new model says end Dec. In a few weeks it’ll be January.
@John Egan: Exactly not once through this whole pandemic has their modelling been correct.
@Franny Ando: imagine if there were dealing with the same thing, education is no burden my friend.
@Daniel Roche: You should try it going by your comments on this and other articles you definitely need it.!
@Andrew English: I actually agree with you on most of this. If your vaccinated and going about your normal life (with an eye for obviously risky packed indoor stuff) then drive on!
I know nothing about the cervical carry on.
Indeed Simon, the Government don’t make popular decisions, they don’t make good decisions either, Fine Failures that’s what you are.
Some jokers. Closing the pubs earlier will fix nothing.
Just his his many extreme predictions that turned out to be well off the mark also.. When does credibility on these things run out when all prior predictions have been way off the mark!?
I dunno bout anyone else but listening to him on radio this morn I got the feeling he will be laying the blame on the people if this happens. But nearly everyone I know is being careful and always have been.
@emer daly: everyone u know that narrows its down there’s over 5 million people in the country how many do u know behaving responsibly
@Sean Mccabe: How many do you know that are not??
@Franny Ando: feck all ,all family plus bulk of friends have been vaccinated and r using common sense when going out on the beer or to a restaurant.cop on goes along way these days
Agree 100%. People could actually enjoy themselves if they went to a party. Shame on anyone who can even consider having fun in these times
One has to ask – were all the efficacy rates -(against sickness and hospitisation) championed with the drive for vaccination take up, a load of you know what!??
The best nights out are the ones you don’t plan …. good man Tony
In the past month (since 20 Oct) I went in to 6 establishments. 3 were nightclubs, one was a bar and there were 2 restaurants. The clubs were fully compliant. One well known well placed restaurant was second worst, one restaurant had their own understanding of the rules. The bar on Camden St was the worst. They checked eventbrite tkts and that was all.
Ireland doesn’t do responsible when it comes to alcohol
Remember last year a meaningful Christmas and look what happened just starting slightly earlier without the sound bites
Go fluich thúself tú bald asal
I do feel bad for the Christmas party cancellations for the regular late night pubs… On a lighter note, the hotels in Galway are, in the last 24 hours, fully booked…. Where’s the fairness?
How many people actually live here?
Pubs restaurants will be closed before end of month thats what government not telling us .should just do it now and put proper payments in place for all effective
@Ct: u playing with the auld crystal ball again
“20 out of 1000 cases might end up in hospital.” If we believe this and that 50%+ of hospital cases are unvaccinated and we believe that the unvaccinated make up approx 8% of the eligible population then simple maths tells us that 11 out of 1000 vaccinated will end up in hospital while the comparable number is 125 out of 1000 unvaccinated!!!! Any believers out there???
@Chris Gaffney: that’s the higher end of one of the scenarios nphet have painted.so much virus circulating rite now that regardless of how great vaccines work the virus is breaking through the defence so yeh that scenario is possible.its rampant at the moment.50% of 300,000 unvaccinated in intensive care against 50% of 3,500,000 anyone that thinks the vaccine don’t work just think about that
@Sean Mccabe: Glad I’m not in the unvaccinated group. It’s like playing Russian roulette every day.
@Tracktrack: me too pal
Dr Tony Hologram. Yes we can have a hologram Christmas instead.
Tony Holohan prettymuch came out and said yesterday that this isn’t going to end. Yet in others countries they have been able to drop restrictions. People should just stop paying attention to our so-called experts as they aren’t on step with experts in other countries.
@whitewater: They are 100% in step. Read a little more about it!!
@whitewater: try sticking ur head in a sink of cold water I think ur still asleep do u know how useless that comment is.oh someone else’s experts r better than our experts so il follow them more cop on to urself.do u know there’s country’s outside of Ireland in the EU maybe read up on what’s going on with them too before having a brain fart
Pandemic or not, this is very solid advice from our CMO.
They can go and f right off. We were sold the idea of 90% vaccination to exit restrictions. How about go after those who refuse the vaccine. People just wont buy this idea after everything they have gone through. How on earth is the pub curfew sensible. There will be hundreds gathering on streets at 12 midnight after been ejected. They are pushing the younger generation into totally uncontrolled house parties
have your say