TENS OF THOUSANDS of people are gathering for the largest global climate conference this week – but the leaders of some of the world’s biggest polluters are skipping it.
The 29th annual COP, which is being hosted by Azerbaijan, needs to bring countries together to agree on a new target for financing climate action.
But some of the most powerful world leaders won’t be showing up to Baku, including US President Joe Biden, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Ireland’s Taoiseach Simon Harris and Tánaiste Micheál Martin also won’t be attending, staying home instead for the general election campaign.
Meanwhile, the Pacific island nation of Papua New Guinea is boycotting the conference, saying that it is tired of other countries making empty promises on climate action that they don’t follow through on.
Someone who is expected to attend is UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose visit will be his first since Labour’s victory in their general election earlier this year.
Prime Minister of Barbados Mia Mottley, who has become known for her powerful testimony as a leader of a country already experiencing the impacts of climate change, is also due to attend this year.
The real leg work at the COPs happens in negotiating rooms, where government delegations try to hammer out agreements about collective climate action.
Last year, for instance, at COP28, the negotiations saw countries formally agree to ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels and to a new Loss and Damage fund to support nations that are being hit badly by the impacts of climate change.
Before the debates around the negotiating tables really heat up, there’s a two-day segment at the start of the conference for heads of state or government to deliver a national statement on behalf of their country, detailing their progress on climate action and often making calls to the rest of the world to step up.
A prime minister of president of a country doesn’t necessarily mean that country isn’t still contributing to the negotiations, but it can send a signal that international climate action isn’t currently a top priority for that leader – despite the scale of the crisis.
Many of the world’s leaders are due to attend and speak at the COP, but others, like Ireland, have a muted presence this year. Some non-attendees are continuing a pattern of no-shows while others made a specific decision not to attend this COP – here’s a look which leaders aren’t coming.
Then-Taoiseach Leo Varadkar delivered a speech at the summit in the UAE last year, preceded by then-Taoiseach Micheál Martin the year before in Egypt.
Current Taoiseach Simon Harris would have been in line to present this time around, but with the looming general election, neither he nor Micheál Martin (now the Tánaiste) will be attending.
Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman described their decision to stay home as “disappointing”, saying: “We need our leaders to do what it takes to protect this country from more destruction in the years ahead.”
Minister for Climate Eamon Ryan is the only senior member of Government due to attend and is expected to deliver Ireland’s national statement. He is also as working as a co-facilitator on climate adaptation negotiations, a role appointed by the COP presidency.
Ryan said he wouldn’t criticise the Taoiseach and Tánaiste’s decision not to attend but was quick to add that he would be critical if they didn’t use the time at home to debate climate issues and to answer “serious questions” about how they intend to deliver climate action.
US President Joe Biden is not due to make a speech this year, though the US will still have an official delegation at the negotiations – and it’s generally one that holds a lot of influence over the finer details of the deals that are struck.
There’ll be a lot of eyes on the US at the COP this year in the wake of Donald Trump’s election win. The last time Trump was president, he withdrew the US from the important Paris Agreement on climate action – and it’s expected that he’ll do the same again once he’s sworn back into office in January.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi won’t be making the journey to Azerbaijan. Putin and Jinping have regularly not attended the COPs. Modi did make an appearance at COP28 last year.
Like the US, these countries will still have delegations at the negotiations. China in particular has quite a strong voice, bolstered by its role in the negotiating group known as the G77 plus China.
Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister James Marape is boycotting the conference, saying that recent COPs have not made nearly enough progress, pointing in particular to a lack of commitment to rainforest conservation.
The island nation is on the frontline of extreme weather events and rising sea levels caused by climate change. Its Minister for Foreign Affairs Justin Tckatchenko said last month that it was holding back from this COP because previous have been a “total waste of time” in recent years.
He said the last three COP meetings have “gone around in circles” and produced “no tangible results for small island states”, saying that Papua New Guinea would “no longer tolerate empty promises”.
Its Minister for Environment Simo Kilepa is expected to attend with a “streamlined” delegation to advocate for Papua New Guinea’s bid to host a meeting of the Green Climate Fund Board next year.
French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Netherlands Prime Minister Dick Schoof and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are all expected to skip out on the conference, each for various political reasons.
Macron’s non-attendance is understood to be linked to tense relations between France and Azerbaijan since the host country’s military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh last year, which saw it seize control of the Armenian separatist region. Azerbaijan is also a supporter of French overseas territories that want independence from Paris.
Scholz had originally been due to deliver a national statement for Germany but has switched his attention after the breakdown of his government’s coalition, prompting a last minute change in plans.
Dutch leader Schoof is also no longer attending after violent clashes in Amsterdam last week between Dutch and Israeli football fans. School wrote on social media that he will be staying in the Netherlands “due to the major social impact” of the incident.
And von der Leyen, the figurehead who has represented the EU at previous blocs, will not attend this year either. A new Commission is currently being put together and is due to take office on 1 December, when von der Leyen is set to begin her second term as Commission President. European Council President Charles Michel, EU Commissioner for Climate Action Wopke Hoekstra and EU Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson will be there instead.
Brazil is set to take up the COP presidency in 2025 and host the 30th annual conference in the city of Belem on the fringes of the Amazon rainforest. The host for the 31st conference has not yet been decided but Australia has an eager bid on the table.
However, neither of their leaders are travelling to COP29 in Azerbaijan. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva cancelled plans to attend after sustaining a head injury last month. Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is also not expected to attend.
Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg is not the head of any government but is worth a mention on this list. Thunberg boycotted the last several COPs and will not attend this year either, saying that the process has become too mired by fossil fuel interests and human rights issues whilst failing to make enough meaningful progress on genuine climate action.
The Journal’s Lauren Boland is in Azerbaijan to cover COP29 and is sending out special editions of our climate newsletter Temperature Check – you can sign up to receive it here.
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