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The Bray Air Show. Wicklow is one of four counties expected to see an upward surge in population growth Alamy Stock Photo

Counties in Dublin 'commuter belt' to experience highest population growth over next 20 years

Counties Kildare, Louth, Meath and Wicklow are expected to see dramatic increases in population growth by 2042.

THE POPULATION OF Ireland is projected to increase to between 5.7 and 6.4 million by 2042, with counties in Dublin’s ‘commuter belt’ expected to see the highest population growth.

The rising population growth in Dublin’s surrounding counties can be attributed to a number of factors, including cost of living in Dublin, and improving public transport services to Dublin in neighbouring counties.

According to Regional Population Projections released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) today, Ireland’s population is expected to grow by at least 500,000 over the next 17 years, with high-end estimates showing a national population growth of 1.2 million.

The CSO estimates that the current population of Ireland is 5,380,300.

CSO data shows the ‘mid-east region’, which includes Kildare, Meath, Louth and Wicklow, is expected to see the largest increases.

The Mid-East region which accounted for 14.9% of the total population share in 2022, is projected to increase under all three scenarios to between 15.5% and 16.1% by 2042.

While population growth is expected in all regions of Ireland, the South-West (Cork City and County, Kerry), Mid-West (Clare, Limerick, Tipperary), and Border (Cavan, Donegal, Leitrim, Monaghan, Sligo) regions are projected to account for a lower percentage share of the total population of Ireland by 2042.

Furthermore, the number of people aged 65 and over is set to increase significantly over this time period across a range of projections.

Hitting one million people by 2030, this section of the population could increase by as much as 62% in some parts of the country by 2042.

As Ireland’s population grow older, the number of persons aged between 0 and 14 years is expected to reduce to 859,400 by 2042.

The CSO projections make a range of assumptions around how the population could change and move over the coming years. One is that there will be continued outflows of people moving out of Dublin to live in other parts of the country, following on from recent trends.

Annually, the CSO said that Dublin could have a net annual migration of 4,600 people to other parts of the country.

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    Mute Paul Kavanagh
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    Jan 29th 2025, 5:15 PM

    The country will be a ghetto in 20 years.

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    Mute Brian Hunt
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    Jan 29th 2025, 4:28 PM

    It wouldn’t take an Albert Einstein to figure out that the counties in Dublin ‘commuter belt’ will experience highest population growth over next twenty years!

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    Mute TheGood Feign
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    Jan 30th 2025, 11:31 PM

    @Brian Hunt: and yet someone, somewhere paid for that survey…. Myself and yourself could’ve told ‘em that!

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    Mute g m
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    Jan 29th 2025, 4:21 PM

    There are plenty of places outside Dublin where the jobs could move to…why not move the jobs there?

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    Mute Rochelle Hart
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    Jan 29th 2025, 4:34 PM

    @g m: Because that’d require a government which isn’t hands off on virtually every issue and leaves everything for the market to decide.

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    Mute John Paul
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    Jan 29th 2025, 4:52 PM

    @g m: These are private companies that advertise these jobs(not the state)and they choose where they want to set up….im sick to my back teeth with this usual narrative of ‘dublins taking all the jobs’….They are not choosing Dublin to annoy you,they are choosing it because it makes sense for them for many reasons.

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    Mute John Paul
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    Jan 29th 2025, 4:54 PM

    @Rochelle Hart: The market can choose where they want to go,they are not going to move to a location that doesn’t suit them just to satisfy some government minister that wants to spread jobs around.

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    Mute ron don
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    Jan 29th 2025, 7:15 PM

    New- Dublin is like like New Delhi in the city these days and the surrounding suburbs

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    Mute Hector turtlehead
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    Jan 30th 2025, 1:35 PM

    @ron don: similar to parts of London that are mostly Irish then.

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    Mute F1rYnpWc
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    Jan 29th 2025, 4:13 PM

    People aged over 65 are going to increase by 62% in some areas of the country? Going to need a whole lot more workers to pay for so many pensions

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    Mute Freda Peeple
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    Jan 29th 2025, 4:53 PM

    @F1rYnpWc: You are dead right, and How are the 20-40 age bracket supposed to afford having kids? They are the real future of our country but due to government/eu policy we won’t be encouraging upping birth rates. Instead just invite the world in instead and to hell with social cohesion

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    Mute D F
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    Jan 29th 2025, 4:57 PM

    @F1rYnpWc: I have being paying my taxes since I was 18. I am now 54, yes I do expect the honey bees to contribute to my pension. I may not retire until I am 67 but ya never know with this gubberment.

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    Mute lisa jones
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    Jan 29th 2025, 5:40 PM

    @F1rYnpWc: Those high percentages of over 65 are the very people who have been filling the government’s coffers over the last 40 years or so.

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    Mute thomas molloy
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    Jan 29th 2025, 10:52 PM

    @Freda Peeple: Just heard Congo has 111 million population.

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    Mute Gary Kearney
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    Jan 30th 2025, 2:29 PM

    @F1rYnpWc: Here is a little secret, pensioners have been paying i to the pension pot for their entire lives.

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    Mute Tommy
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    Jan 29th 2025, 4:54 PM

    and Why can’t all these jobs be scattered across Ireland instead of overpopulated Dublin?

    There’s plenty of counties in the Western Seaboard that are crying out for proper employment.

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    Mute Jonny Dun
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    Jan 29th 2025, 5:20 PM

    @Tommy: just like the best jobs in the US are clustered around the coastal cities and in the UK it’s London and France it’s Paris etc etc . Companies will go where they can find a skilled workforce and the infrastructure they need.

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    Mute John Paul
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    Jan 29th 2025, 5:44 PM

    @Tommy: another guy who thinks the state can choose where these jobs go instead of the companies themselves…..and to spread them around to suit people in rural Ireland .someone said to me recently that if I choose to live in dublin I will have to put up with heavy traffic/higher cost housing/higher cost most everything else and all the other downsides with living in a city.But rural people seem to want all the upsides of living in rural Ireland AND have multinationals and other jobs on their doorsteps.

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    Mute Amanda Morgan
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    Jan 29th 2025, 6:46 PM

    @John Paul: dublin isn’t the only city on ireland, the government was told about this yrs ago they have been crying out for a motorway between limerick and cork for yrs to connect cities and build them up to attract more business into the area.

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    Mute brian o'leary
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    Jan 29th 2025, 4:03 PM

    Move the people to where the jobs are going to be, not the jobs to the people.

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    Mute Fiona Wyse
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    Jan 29th 2025, 5:36 PM

    They better do some transport planning, 2 hours typical journey time from Navan to O Connell street. 2 hrs to travel 43km!!!!!!!
    Ridiculous.

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    Mute Fiona Wyse
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    Jan 30th 2025, 6:32 AM

    @Harry Paisley: I’m only a blow in here three years so I’m still happy enough!

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    Mute Paul Soup
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    Jan 29th 2025, 4:11 PM

    We must do everything in our power, to protect these extra people from the scourge of vapes, a full and comprehensive ban on vapes is the only option

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    Mute Luke Littler
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    Jan 29th 2025, 4:40 PM

    @Paul Soup: they will all be immigrants, smoking much worse poison

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    Mute Name
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    Jan 29th 2025, 4:59 PM

    A testament to the failure to provide sufficient housing in Dublin. If this is to be, then at least build better transport options and restrict development to the commuter towns. No more isolated one-off builds, unless we want the Galwaynisation of Dublin and surrounding counties.

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    Mute Dave Callaghan
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    Jan 29th 2025, 6:09 PM

    @Name:HaHa! No more one off builds? I don’t think so lad. There’s a load of local people who can work from home moving back to my area and a lot of other areas! planning notices going up everywhere, It’s absolutely brilliant to see! You can shove your urban living up your hole.

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    Mute brian o'leary
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    Jan 29th 2025, 6:35 PM

    @Dave Callaghan: statistically, its rural people who have been sticking rural living ‘up their hole’ for generations now, as ireland , like the rest of the world becomes more urbanised. A trend that not changing.

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    Mute Jacintha Dumbrell
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    Jan 29th 2025, 6:00 PM

    Replace racists with immigrants.

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    Mute Dave Callaghan
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    Jan 29th 2025, 6:14 PM

    @Jacintha Dumbrell: Ah, so you’re one of these conspiracy nuts who believes in the great replacement – I had you down for a woke leftie, lol

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    Mute Declan Young
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    Jan 29th 2025, 10:09 PM

    @Dave Callaghan: Dumbell is a woke leftie, trying to be sarcastic.

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    Mute Paddy C
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    Jan 30th 2025, 9:15 AM

    Sure its grand with the influx of immigration the government would hardly encourage that if there was plentyful affordable accommodation for those already here and arriving. Why indeed are many 18-25 year olds heading to canada and Australia?

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    Mute Gary Kearney
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    Jan 30th 2025, 2:34 PM

    @Paddy C: To see the world , to have fun, to try something different.
    Loads of reasons!

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    Mute Declan Tiberius Kelly
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    Feb 2nd 2025, 8:49 AM

    I once took a train to Bray, it stopped at each station for a few mins, the trip took almost an hour, lol, what the hell is going in this country.

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