We need your help now
Support from readers like you keeps The Journal open.
You are visiting us because we have something you value. Independent, unbiased news that tells the truth. Advertising revenue goes some way to support our mission, but this year it has not been enough.
If you've seen value in our reporting, please contribute what you can, so we can continue to produce accurate and meaningful journalism. For everyone who needs it.
Sign in. It’s quick, free and it’s up to you.
An account is an optional way to support the work we do. Find out more.
By continuing, you are indicating that you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
THE NUMBER OF patients with Covid-19 in hospital but who have been admitted for other reasons is around 30%, Chief Medial Officer Dr Tony Holohan has said.
His comments come in the wake of Health Minister Stephen Donnelly saying yesterday evening that the HSE has been undertaking a “big piece of work” to analyse how many people in hospital with Covid could be classified as ‘incidental’ Covid patients.
Earlier yesterday Tánaiste Leo Varadkar had claimed that up to 30% of patients with Covid-19 are primarily being treated for other health issues.
Speaking on radio yesterday, the Fine Gael leader said, “While we have 1,000 in hospital at the moment, what the doctors are saying to us is as many as 25%-30% of those could be incidental.”
It could be somebody who has a burst appendix but also has Covid.
As recently as 30 December, Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan said in a statement that “less than 5%” of cases in hospital or intensive care have ‘incidental’ Covid. By that that definition, he explained in the December statement, he meant asymptomatic and non-infectious disease.
Speaking to reporters at a briefing today, Dr Holohan acknowledged that, using a broader definition, the figure of people in hospital who have tested positive but who are not being treated for Covid primarily could be higher.
Dr Holohan said that NPHET, at its meeting last week, identified the need to get a “much more detailed understanding” of the hospitalisation data available.
“As a result, the HSE have been, if I could use the phrase, kicking the tyres a bit more on that data,” he said.
“And yes, the HSE is of the view now that the true figure is probably much closer to a 30% figure than a 5% figure based on the work they’ve been doing over the last number of days since that NPHET meeting.”
Dr Holohan said the 30% figure would be “in accord with what is broadly bring reported internationally”.
The CMO said the HSE research into the hospitalisations arose “because we had the concern that from the data we were getting from the HSE … doesn’t really accord with what we might be hearing from other countries”.
“And for all the reasons I said, we decided we should be kicking the tyres more thoroughly on that data.”
He noted that the piece of work being conducted into hospitalisations is not concluded.
“Maybe a point to make, and that shouldn’t be lost, is that if you have a patient who is in for a completely separate purpose but happened to have Covid, they still represent a significant risk to the staff and other patients, in particular, in the hospital environment,” Dr Holohan added.
Speaking on Newstalk’s Hard Shoulder programme yesterday, Donnelly explained that there are three groups of patients in hospital with Covid at the moment.
“So you have people who are not being treated for Covid, they have no symptoms of Covid, but they have tested positive. They show up in the figures,” he said.
“There’s another group, who may be being treated for Covid, but it’s not the primary reason they’re in and the Covid isn’t particularly dangerous for them.
“And then there’s the final group who really are quite ill with Covid. They’re being actively treated for Covid. And some of them could end up in a much worse situation — could end up in critical care.”
Hospitalisation figures are regularly updated for people that have tested positive for Covid-19. However, the hospitalisation figures reported each day include all categories of patients mentioned above.
Recent reports from the HSE to government have shown that among more recent hospitalisations, the numbers admitted for the treatment of Covid alone is “way down”, as one senior health source put it, speaking to The Journal.
One example cited is a person who has broken their leg, presented to hospital, and subsequently tested positive for Covid-19.
Medics may decide to give that patient some sort of treatment or medication for their Covid symptoms, which therefore means they are included in the hospitalisation numbers.
Had they not presented to hospital with their other ailment, they would never have featured in the daily figures, the senior source pointed out.
It is understood that Donnelly has asked the HSE to provide him with as much detail as possible about the patient types included in the Covid hospitalisation numbers so as to get a better sense of what the health service may be facing.
The reason the minister wants the breakdown is it will tell the government how many people might possibly end up in critical care – which government ministers state is now the key metric it is looking at when it comes to weighing up restrictions.
A source close to the health minster has said that Donnelly is seeking “granular” detail with a view to understanding as much as possible about the impact on critical care in the weeks ahead.
It is also understood that the minister is in favour of full transparency around these hospitalisation figure breakdowns, and is very open to full transparency around each category of patient in hospital with Covid.
“It’s all about definitions,” said another senior source, who highlighted that NPHET defines ‘incidental’ cases as asymptomatic and non-infectious patients.
Severity and mortality
Data from South Africa, where Omicron rose to prominence, found fewer hospitalisations, respiratory diagnoses and a decrease in severity and mortality in the fourth wave compared to previous waves.
In the latest episode of The Explainer podcast, Mia Malan, the editor-in-chief of Bhekisisa – an award-winning health journalism centre in South Africa – told The Journal that admission rates for hospitals in the country peaked at about a quarter of the proportion that was admitted during delta.
“When people ended up in hospital, they were far less likely to fall severely ill,” Malan said.
They were less likely to require expensive resources such as ventilation, or supplemental oxygen or end up in an intensive care unit. And because of that, all in all, it put less strain on our health system.
To embed this post, copy the code below on your site
I don’t think Tony is too happy being called out on his fake stats.
@DK: The stats weren’t fake, he said that on Dec 31st, so his stats related to the end of December, when Delta was still dominant in hospitals. It’s now out of date.
https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/hospitals-icu–testing
Click the Positive Rate (%) Previous 7 Days.
@DK: or you could have a land yourself if they have been giving the correct numbers for those being treated for CoViD-19 and the numbers of Carriers of SARS-COV-2 but not being treated was much higher and being included in the daily case,numbers
@Joe_X: sorry, must correct myself: ….being included in the daily case numbers when they were found originally, and only as hospital cases if they developed covid.
@David Jordan: If you believe that I have some magic beans to sell you. No way its 25% – 30% of cases now either. If they’re admitting that you know the real amount is at least 35% – 40%.
@David Jordan: Hang on. It was only last week that we we’re told (I.e. reported in media) that people in hospital for other reasons but with covid was only 5%. Questions have been asked for clarity on this figure for ages, and anyone asking were called “Tin-foil hatters”. Now it’s 30%, it does cast some doubt on what is being reported in the media. Clarity, from a single source should actually be a legal requirement from official sources.
@Alan Wright: That percentage could have changed very quickly. We’ve seen how much more contagious Omicron is, so if it took hold in hospitals the number of people who caught it in hospital has probably rocketed in the last few weeks.
@Thomas O’ Donnell: ‘Could’ and ‘probably’ are the type of words we’ve been hearing from Government and NPHET as they appear fearful to actually collect and release real information. It is the information age we live in and they are more akin to the cloak & dagger tactics of the CIA or KGB. These figures have only been released because people have been pushing for this data for ages now.
@Alan Wright: “The data is fake I want real data” More data is given as the scenario progresses which is more amicable to your view. “This data is also fake I want real data”. Do you just want the data to match your pre-existing views or are you willing to change your views to match the data?
@Alan Wright: “It was only last week”
2 Weeks ago. Friday Dec 31st is when he made the statement, the stats would refer to the previous week, now two weeks ago.
@David Jordan: the problem was his language wasn’t clear. He said asymptomatic non infectious, so people who had probably more or less recovered from covid but were still getting treatment even though they were no longer infectious. What everyone in the media thought he meant was that only 95% of people were admitted with covid and only 5% were incidental. His use of the word incidental was erroneous based on most people’s definition of the word.
@Joe_X: So you will defend even this?
@Anthony Guinnessy: will you if you are wrong? By asking that question, you went on the defensive very fast. If I was wrong, so be it. I’ll admit it. Don’t think I am though. If you think there are only 1055 people (using today’s figures) in hospital testing positive for SARS-COV-2, your a tad overly optimistic.
Hopefully this argument will once and for all be put to rest for both sides. We will see the true number of people in hospital carrying the virus SARS-COV-2 and how many being treated for CoViD-19.
@Joe_X: I’ve never understood why there is an argument here, in both instances the patient has Covid.
@Joe_X: Yes. But has anyone the answer to the question about whether the 83 dates this week (RIP. This is a terrible time) were from omicron or delta? I apologise and plead ignorance here as we have omicron in our house. We’re miserable with it but it certainly doesn’t feel like something life threatening.
@Vonvonic: deaths
@Joe_X: which also should have anyways been the number reported
@Football in the Groin: yes, but the disagreement is in the terminology used. Today they reported 1055 in hospital with Covid. To me and others, that is 1055 in hospital being treated for Covid. After all, with the numbers of the last week, if people think that there are only 1055 people are in hospital carrying the virus, they are very optimistic. To more though, it could mean that 1054 people in hospital tested and found positive but not being treated, and only one being treated or anywhere in between the 2 stances, but that is downplaying the seriousness of the disease and that argument was being used to undermine the restrictions. But 1055 people being treated is a bit more serious than only 1 person being treated for the disease and 1054 in for a broken leg and carrying the virus.
@Vonvonic: That would be interesting to know, hopefully we will get that information too.
@Go On: I agree. They could have saved a whole lot of trouble had they given both numbers.
@Joe_X: So much for wishful thinking. Already down along this comments thread there are already suggestions kf how those numbers will be be “massaged”. No matter what the truth is there will be those who prefer the conspiracy theories.
@Joe_X: Probably not so simple. Let’s say I go into a hospital with a heart complaint, no Covid. If I catch Covid in hospital and it makes my condition worse, am I in hospital with Covid or not?
@Football in the Groin: because if its not serious enough to put someone in hospital then they are unlikely to require icu beds and unlikely to die so it is a measure of how severe the virus is on the population. Giving out irrelevant information about someone having covid but in hospital for something else you may as well say how many had covid and live in a two story house. Its irrelevant apart from hospital management.
@Anthony Guinnessy: there is no such thing a irrelevent information. The more the better. Just a pity ye keep calling it scaremongering instead of seeing what it truly is: plain information.
@Football in the Groin: when someone is admitted …say with a broken leg… and after a routine swab COVID is confirmed … they are admitted with COVID, but presenting complaint is actually the leg, COVID isn’t causing illness for them.
However if another patient is hospitalised because of COVID symptoms that require treatment then they are admitted for COVID.
Big difference.
If we don’t get back to normal by the end of this month we never will…
@Vincent Bickerstaffe: What an arbitrary deadline you’ve set. Thankfully the world will continue on regardless
shout out to conor riocht on twitter for pushing for these stats to be publicized, would be great to see him return, his posts were very informative.
@kmobrien: given he was an extremely pro-FG Pfizer exec, I won’t be eagerly awaiting his return. There’s plenty of places to find the same data without any personal bias.
@Mo: If you had followed him at all you would know he wasn’t etremely pro FG. More of a Greens follower. His mistake was he came out against SF and the SF twitter bots ganged up on him.
I wonder how many of those 25-30% contracted covid after admittance?
Whatever the figure is, you can be sure the numbers will be massaged to protect the HSE.
Well done big T, following the CDC’s revealing in the US. Pity they didn’t say anything last January or anytime in 2020. The truth shall set you free.
@John Egan: be careful what you wish for….might bite you on the a$$
@Joe_X: if they had worse figures they would be headlined long ago, have you been hiding under your bed for the whole project fear propaganda? You expect people to trust the numbers coming out won’t be couched in such a way to protect the cmo, government and hse even though we wouldn’t have this info were it not for it being pushed for internationally and being made available internationally.
We’re still waiting for a proper breakdown of those that died because of covid or with covid. And yes it does matter, these people that have passed away should not be used as pawns.
@Anthony Guinnessy: oh yes andy, you have gone on the defensive alright. Scared of the truth now I see, gone for the attack the commenter tack, instead of debating it. I was essential services, and like thousands others I never locked down. Now seeing as we do not see you before midnight Irish time any night, I’m guessing you are in foreign climes so we will forgive you that for not knowing what essential services is! What worse figures? If some one is in hospital for something else and tests positive for the virus, they are not a hospitalization for covid, which is what they report on. They get added to the daily figures. I know I’m bad at proof reading my comments for spelling, you need to read what you comment before you put it up.
I rest my case. 2 weeks ago I was being having a go at for asking the same question. To the persons who shot me down, right back at ya.
@Cormac McCann: and using today’s figures as an example, if they come back and confirm 1055 people are being treated for covid, and another 1000 are in hospital for other reasons other than covid and tested positive for the virus, but not treated for it, will you accept it?
@Joe_X: what are you on about Joe? You do love to have the negative vibe going at every turn. I asked a simple question that day and was shot down for my asking. What you are asking me to accept now don’t make sense. The numbers are the numbers. I will accept the genuine numbers. Not massaged ones.
So that means that 30% of the wider population have it, unless the incidentals are affected by covid in some way or they got it in hospital.
@john smith iv: In the week to 5 January 2022: “Given the 7-day cumulative incidence of 2,876 per 100,000, allowing for constraints on testing and undetected infections, the likely population prevalence of active SARS-CoV-2 infection is 5.7%- 9.6%; between 1 in 10 and 1 in 20 of the population are likely to be infected,” Holohan says.
Rates have increased since and seem to have almost peaked, so rates outside hospital could be 10 – 15% right now. We’re absolutely riddled, but I don’t think we’re 30%. So some cases must be hospital acquired. Look at the Positive Rate (%) Previous 7 Days tab:
https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/hospitals-icu–testing
“identified the need to get a “much more detailed understanding” of the hospitalisation data available. “
Well no s__t Sherlock… only a couple of years in, better late than never I suppose.
Sure what importance would the accuracy of data or the clarity of the ‘definitions’ of data, be to the modeling from data, the generation of data and following analysis and interpretation of data in any situation. .
In all systems, garbage in = garbage out.
All hail the data….. and those that have been asking the same question for a long time now.
@Da Dell: I’m glad I’m not the only one thinking it, 2 years in and now they decide to understand the numbers.
Probably explains a lot of why nphet models had such wide variance to them. Models? More like lick your finger, stick it in the air and see what way the wind is blowing then make up some numbers wide enough that what happens will fall into one of the bands.
Looking for granular detail, trust lost in NPHET advice? Revenue data analysts might be able to tidy up and present it properly.
have your say