@Anto Curran: vaccines so good why are they so many over 65 in hospital who were fully vaccinated.

@John brett: waining immunity after 6 months

@Anto Curran: the hospital numbers are, understandably, usually a week to 10 days behind the diagnosis of cases

@John brett: because there are still a lot of people who are too selfish couldn’t be bothered to look out for others.

@RJ: while that is true, the case numbers have been rising for a lot longer than 2 weeks

@John brett: 92% approx effective at stopping serious illness. That leaves 8% of what serious illness there would have been. All things considered hospitalisations could be far higher. Probably will rise a good bit over the next month.

@Munster1: hence the booster shots

@Munster1: waining immunity after 6 months, some vaccine that is hahaha, I got vaccinated for a few different things as a baby 34years later I’m still immune no boosters in that time either would you believe

@Anto Curran: Most cases are admitted to hospital on day 8 or 9 of the illness. They might rise soon.

@Alan Leamy: Oh dear. What a comment.

@John brett: Because vaccines are never 100% successful and some people have underlying health issues which makes them more susceptible to the virus

@Alan Leamy: different viruses and disease have different responses to vaccines. I had to get get a TB booster as do a lot of people. So even the old ones were not 100% effective.

@John brett: Is that really a question or just trolling? Might have something to do with old age as well as other illnesses they may have. Human body doesn’t work as well as it used to as you get older. Surprised to have to explain that to an adult….. News flash as well, people also die from the flu despite being vaccinated. Even a common cold can kill.

@Alan Leamy: might want to have a quick google there of childhood vaccines, there is definitely boosters.

@RJ: currently 35 are hospitalised out of every 1,000 cases

@Michelle Rock:I googled it there michelle, would you believe Google didn’t know whether I got a booster in the last 34 years, I know do and I didn’t

@Alan Leamy: You did. Ask your mammy.

@Tommy Roche: good man Tommy, mammy says no

@Alan Leamy: Anyway who cares, the sickest thing about this virus is how it’s turned people against each other, fair play to all the people that have taken the jab and fair play to those who havnt, we all decided what was right for ourselves, its when the time comes that we don’t have a choice anymore I worry about

@John brett: dream on….

@Lets be real: There’d be Martial law by now.

@Seàn Mc: It’s hardly all roses though, is it?! Europe is highly vaxxed and yet cases are dangerously surging across the continent, regardless of vaccination status. The WHO is saying we’re the epicentre of the pandemic and they expect a spike in hospitalisations and deaths shortly which threaten EU counties going back into public health-destroying lockdown (5-10 times worse for public health https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.625778/full). Compare this to major regions of a developing country that we’re not allowed to talk about where Covid cases and deaths have flatlined since July. They only achieved 10% vaccination by September. Whether it’s because they treat their sick or because they rapidly build innate immunity, they have gotten rid of it without vaccines and with enviable deaths per million in the process.

When are we going to start treating the sick on positive diagnosis with all the existing therapies, supported by dozens and dozens of studies, that are known to significantly reduce hospitalisations?

@Conor Brady: Conor that is wrong, I wont even try and argue figures with you as your stats all suit your argument.
Vaccines work, herd immunity does not.

@Conor Brady: getting very Donald trump “if we don’t test there would be no cases” vibes off of your post

@Gary Kearney: feel free to explain this graph using your own stats and figures Gary. It’s innate immunity and/or treatment (check out how quick those cases fell away, none of our waves look like that), and again they weren’t 10% vaccinated until 3mths after flatlining. 241mil people, safe now. https://www.google.com/search?q=uttar+pradesh+covid+cases

@Conor Brady: oh it’s the Conor Brady “delete this thread show!’ (needs a snappier title)…do you only lie? Every comments thread you are on gets deleted. India is suddenly a paragon of virtue whose data is impeccable. Their caste system treats some people as barely human. Do you honestly think they care and record what happens to those in the lower castes…
…of course you don’t…

@Conor Brady: Yes, Uttar Pradesh reached herd immunity, 90% or above were infected by July 2021, due to an uncontained outbreak.

We’re vaccinating instead, because letting COVID-19 rip though our unvaccinated population last year would have resulted in 13,000 to 20,700 deaths (IFR of 0.56% to 0.84% and 50% infected, pre-Delta Infection Fatality Rate). Is that possible? Yes, if we had an uncontained outbreak we could have ended up like Peru, Bulgaria or Brazil etc.

Peru – equivalent to 29,800 deaths here.
Bosnia and Herzegovina – equivalent to 18,000 deaths here.
Bulgaria – equivalent to 18,000 deaths here.
Hungary – equivalent to 16,200 deaths here.
Czech Republic – equivalent to 14,410 deaths here.
Brazil – equivalent to 14,200 deaths here
Romania – equivalent to 13,135 death here

Also, looking at the SCOPI antibody survey, that found that 1.7% of the population aged 12 – 69 caught the virus after the first wave (1000 deaths).

Our ICUs would not cope if we let loos. Also, immunity after infection wanes, 27% of cases in Delhi were reinfections, due to waning immunity and new variants.

“Seropositivity of an employee and family cohort increased from 42% to 87.5% between March and July 2021, with 27% reinfections, as judged by increased antibody concentration after a previous decline.”

Refs.:

Dhar, M.S., Marwal, R., et al. 2021. Genomic characterization and epidemiology of an emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant in Delhi, India. Science, eabj9932, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abj9932.

https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/delhi-97-percent-population-have-antibodies-against-covid-19-sixth-serological-survey-742704

SCOPI: COVID-19 antibody research study results

IFR estimates used:

ENE-COVID Spanish serosurvey
Verity et al.: Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis (table 1)

@Vonvonic: you would be wondering what occupied their lives before Covid.

@Vonvonic: agreed. The cases are increasing which is a concern but the vaccines are working

@Elaine Phelan: Absolutely, but I think the point made by DJBERMO is spot on. Anything can happen going forward. People need to be a bit more philosophical and flexible. But right now; we can be optimistic. Being optimistic hurts no-one.

@Tom kenny: Mayo for Sam…..

@Padraic McDonagh: down with that sort of thing

@Padraic McDonagh: That is optimistic.

@David Jordan: It is interesting, but the usual cycle of this lesser strain of flu, virtually dissappearing for years, only to later re-emerge, could also be in play, in addition to the lockdown induced lack of infection opportunities, causing a similar outcome.

@David Jordan: so by that logic all we need to rid the world of coronavirus is another new virus to eliminate it

@Finn Bar Regany: I heard the flu and covid had a big showdown, one on one, there were no fans in attendance, just a few very rich billionaire’s witnessed it and covid knocked out the flu in 30 seconds with a left hook and ordered the flu to never come back here again, to be honest this story is just as believable as some of the other rubbish the public are swallowing

@Hugo Bugo: when it is like the flu then fair enough – but it is killing over 25 times more people than the flu does in a full year.

it is also having serious health implication for some individuals and putting health workers at risk – and if we have to report cases in 12 months time to remind people to stay at home if they have symptoms and to wear face masks in certain circumstances then it might sink into some people heads.

If 8 people a day were dying on the roads do you not think that would also be news worthy?

This is interesting too https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210913-the-little-known-virus-that-surged-in-children-this-summer

@Hugo Bugo: It is not like the flu apart from the fact it is a virus. Completely different type and completely different way to deal with it.
The one good thing is the massive fu outbreaks have not happened due to covid as people stayed apart and wore masks.

@Conor Brady: The over sanitation of hands, particular in young healthy children caused me concern from the beginning.
The myriad of bacteria young people are exposed to daily all feed in to a strong healthy immune system.
I wouldn’t have thought that relative short period of cleanliness though would have such a quick effect. However that article makes interesting reading.
Need to get them back to the nose picking and ass scratching.

@Conor Brady: That was always around. There’s a surge at the moment because young kids that would have ordinarily picked it up last year, didn’t due to lockdowns. As a result there’s double the amount of kids with it this year. The doctor explained it to me as the cold virus getting into the lungs. Our 10 month old has it at the moment, is very sick, and can’t shift it. It may not be well known by the name RSV but it’s always been around.

@Hugo Bugo: That is essentially it. You won’t hear it at a NPHET press conference but smarter scientists have studied it. Once you get a new dominant virus on the scene and it quells the others into neay extinction. It was entirely predicted based on years of epidemiological research. Check out Hope Simpson if you’d like to read up. Of course, it could re-emerge but for now Covid is the new kid in town.

@Gary Kearney: Yet according to you yesterday the rise in covid cases was down to nobody obeying the rules. You said mask wearing had decreased no one was social distancing and people were doing what they pleased. So which is it you can’t have it both ways. So what is your “argument ” now for no massive flu outbreaks??

@Hugo Bugo: totally agree

@Hugo Bugo: 10 times the deaths of the worst modern flu year, and nearly the same proportion of all deaths as in the 1918 flu year. 30 times the average road deaths, and almost half as many Covid deaths as deaths from ALL cancers, our number 1 cause of death. And that’s WITH restrictions, and latterly vaccines.
“So forget about it”.

@Franny Ando: there appears to be a lot of people (on here) that have never had a loved one in ICU.

@Franny Ando: really sad comment from you.

If you take yesterdays figures and add the admissions and subtract the discharges then the difference between these and today’s figures in usually the number of people who have sadly died in ICU with covid.

Yesterday there were 90 in ICU and today the government (and covid app) report 76.

90 + 2 admissions = 92
92 – 11 discharges = 81

Did it ever occur to you that the difference between 81 and 76 could be as a result of 5 deaths in ICU assuming these figures are correct.

Now how many times does this need to be explained to people like you or are you just too lazy to think or care ?

@Niall Ó Cofaigh: It does not suit his argument.

@Dan Jacobson: unfortunately 3 out of every 10 patients admitted to ICU because of Covid die

@FrustratedASDMum: yeah the media narrative which of we remember from weeks and weeks ago was when we reopen cases wi rise but the icu numbers should be manageable and this is what living with covid will look like – the hospital numbers this past week have actually fallen below 500 and the icu numbers have also fallen to 76 – and so the headlines everywhere today are Dr Tony Holahan is concerned and the Taoiseach is warning the pubs and blah blah blah – it’s kinda pathetic imo – they can’t keep pointing to cases if the health systems icu is able to manage – which it is when it’s 76 icu ffs

@Niall Ó Cofaigh: No. The reason being during a NPHET briefing last year a journalist from either Virgin or Newstalk( can’t remember which one)asked that question. It was put to Tony Holohan regarding the discharge numbers, if they had recovered or passed away. It was explained that discharged from hospital meant discharged. Discharged from ICU meant moved into general hospital wards. Deaths were reported separately. It was also explained on here by others several times. As for your mathematical equations maybe the best way to get an accurate and factual explanation is to contact HSE.

@Franny Ando: and the clocks changing as also stated earlier.

@Sequoia: Primary school children are bringing home COVID-19 and they are infecting parents at home. End of October (last epidemiological update I saw) there was a clear double peak at ages 5 – 12 and 35 – 44, children and their parents.

While vaccines approx. halves the time a person is infectious, so outbreaks in bars and restaurants etc. are reduced, they do not reduce infections by as much in home settings, where people spend 24/7 with each other. They are bound to be infectious at some point when someone is at home.

I think the government dropped the ball on this, should have kept up school testing of asymptomatic cases (that said, several countries drop this too). They might change their mind.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/nphet-reviewing-covid-testing-for-schoolchildren-says-varadkar-40996613.html

@Sequoia: it’s a virus

@Sequoia: it’s a virus

@Sequoia: it’s a virus

@Sequoia: it’s a virus

@David Jordan: why do you think this…schools are safe we were told..transmission is outside school…would it not be untested vaccinated parents without symptoms spreading it to their children instead since they are out and about in pubs or at work with other infected people

@Gavin Conran: Exactly that extra hour kept those nasty revellers out longer. I wonder was Tony out driving round to keep.them in check.

@Gary Kearney: It has all the hallmarks of a seasonal virus. Big peak last December/January also due to seasonality while this summer and last summer it dipped. Of course, too early to say for certain given how new it is but early trends point to it being the case as well as looking at how other coronavirus react. Even mainstream virologists like Paul Moynagh have stated as much.

@Merlin Lancelot: not so sir Lancelot. Because of vaccines plus science we have an overpopulated world. Vaccines save more than they kill by a long shot.

@Eoin Hennigan: crass but true. Human greed is destroying the world. Nature is seldom allowed to intervene in controlling our numbers. The virus only wants to survive. COVID thinks only of its own survival just like humans.

@Patricia MC Namara: you are absolutely right. The normal vaccines are a God send to humanity that was developed by Europeans (together with antibiotics etc…) This mRNA vaccine is a different kettle of a fish.

@Merlin Lancelot: She is under the impression that a virus can think. She is far from absolutely right.

@Tommy Roche: there are many ways ‘to think’. Define to think, then we might be able to communicate.

@Vonvonic: how does it make sense?

@Mags Murphy: Because the antigen tests aren’t all that accurate. And people who are unvaccinated are already taking a huge gamble.

@Vonvonic: I still.dont get your point, the antigen tests have the same level of effectiveness if u are vaccinated or not?

@Mags Murphy: Yes. But if the test gives you a false negative and you are unvaccinated, the risks you will take as a result would inevitably have far greater consequences, for yourself mostly. ICU figures prove that.

@Vonvonic: Sorry. That should read potentially instead of inevitably.

@Mags Murphy: I think the biggest problem we have with this virus by far, is the inability to see this whole thing as a numbers game… which it absolutely is.

@Vonvonic: giving an unvaccinated person the option to do an antigen test means there is a much greater chance that they will know it is covid and not a cold and thus to take the necessary steps, I really dont understand why not giving antigen tests to unvaxxed people is a good idea……

@Mags Murphy: Fortunately, this isn’t about what you do or don’t understand… It’s about numbers.

@Vonvonic: if I had symptoms, took a antigen test and was positive, I’d isolate. The way govt are treating the 8% that have declined the vaccine makes us more likely to not play ball at all…….if it was about stopping the spread of covid antigen tests would be plentiful and freely available to all as another tool…….

@David Jordan: why???. It was a good post. I have had my posts deleted also. They were not offensive. I am considering quitting the journal if that carries on…