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A WHO SPECIAL Envoy says that the world is coming into a “turning point” with Covid-19, but that it will not be plain sailing in the weeks ahead.
The WHO Special Envoy on Covid-19, David Nabarro, said that he believed that a “turning point” with Covid-19 had been reached due to the arrival of the more transmissible Omicron variant.
Speaking to RTÉ’s Today with Claire Byrne, Nabarro said that Omicron, while more transmissible, appears to inflict less serious illness on those who catch it and that over time, Covid-19 will become milder.
“Our anticipation is that this new coronavirus that we first met at the beginning of 2020 will over time, become a perfectly calm virus that does not cause major illness,” said Nabarro
“Perhaps leads to occasionally a few people, unfortunately, getting severely ill, but otherwise it will be a little bit like the common cold.
“That’s where we think this virus is eventually is headed, but it’s not there yet.”
However, Nabarro did warn that it would not be “plain sailing” in the weeks ahead as cases of Omicron reach their peak around the world, and that some health systems may be overwhelmed due to the volume of cases.
Nabarro also cautioned the relaxation of restrictions, saying that while countries should “hope for the best”, they should expect difficulties to arrive.
“My general point to everybody is simply, you know, hope for the best, but expect all sorts of challenging difficulties.
That means having plans for some degree of restriction on movements, probably local, if we get a bad surge and suddenly health services get overwhelmed and people start to perish.
“You have to make your plans based on what we’ve learned about this virus and that is it’s really cunning and difficult to deal with.”
Nabarro said that it was about “balancing risk” on whether or not restrictions should be eased, and that it should be done on public health grounds rather than around concerns for any particular industry.
The National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) are expected to meet on Thursday to discuss the relaxation of some restrictions, with Tánaiste Leo Varadkar saying yesterday that he expects all restrictions to be lifted by the summer.
Varadkar said that he would be lobbying for a broader and faster reopening, and that restrictions would be relaxed on a phased basis over the coming months.
“I also do think we’re coming to the point where we also need to move on. We’ve had very strict restrictions in Ireland for two years now,” said Varadkar, speaking on RTÉ’s This Week yesterday.
“If you take last summer, the summer before that, we had the strictest rules in Europe. I don’t think that should be the case this summer.
I’ll be pushing for a more ambitious and a quicker reopening over the next couple of months – nothing risky, nothing reckless but certainly something that’s in line with our European peers.”
Varadkar gave 31 March as his aim for the lifting of restrictions, the same day when Covid-19 legislation is slated to end.
“I think that should be the aim. As you know, all the legislation actually falls on 31 March, (it) can be extended by three months.
“And you know, one thing I said yesterday to my party, is that on many occasions, we’ve acted out of an abundance of caution. But sometimes an abundance of caution can be an excess of caution. And we need to avoid that.
“And I’m very keen to see the reopening happening at an ambitious pace over the next few weeks next few months,” he added.
New variants
On the emergence of any new variants, Nabarro said that he did not expect a variant that is more lethal and more transmissible than Omicron to emerge, saying that it was “really unlikely”.
“Now if another variant is going to come in and replace Omicron firstly it would need to be more easily transmissible than Omicron,” said Nabarro.
Now will a more easily transmissible variant also be more lethal? Well, most of the people to whom I have spoken are saying that’s really unlikely to happen.
“if we get more lethal variants, we expect them to be less transmissible and in the end, unlikely to displace Omicron as the dominant variety.”
- Additional reporting by Niall O’Connor
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Open everything
@Bri Lyons: off the back of the Tanaiste’s comments this morning , they have to .
Omicron , no bigger an impact on the health care service that a bad flu year . Its over .
@Keith Flood: haha, literally telling everyone it’s over in an article about being careful not to think it’s over too early. Nabarro knows more than you do Keith.
@Bri Lyons: It is slowly becoming obvious to our intellectually challenged political leaders that ongoing society wide restrictions recommended by public health care experts are to protect public health systems that cannot protect themselves with basic Infection Control Prevention measures. Most covid infections happen in hospitals. Most ICU cases have been there for weeks. Most hospitalisations with covid do not need treatment for covid.
@Neil Neart: you cannot substantiate these wild claims “Most covid infections happen in hospital”. Would that include 100,000 last week and 100,000 the week before. “Most covid infections happen in hospital” is plainly untrue. This also means that everything else you say should be taken with at least a grain of salt but I suspect a grain in not enough, more likely there is not a grain of truth in your other claims particularly when around 70% of covid cases in hospital are there because of covid according to the hospitals caring for their patients meaning that maybe 30% are bring treated for something else and just happen to have covid. 30% is not most. I wonder what you know of the infection prevention measures in hospitals – maybe enlighten us with links or sources for your claims.
@TomTraubert: The effects from restrictions and the knock on effects on healthcare for everything outside of Covid will , hopefully not put the smile on the other side of your face .
Most of us want to live with it and get on with living .
Some want to live for it , on and on and on .
Good lad .
Enough is enough time to get back to normal and move on.. This will be next year’s flu
@Darren: That is impossible as covid-19 and flu are two different viruses.
@Darren: while some my know what you mean as both are viruses, they are actually as alike as a cat and a dog, as alike as a strawberry and a lemon. I hope that by next year the effects of this coronavirus can be as mild as a mild influenza virus. Remembering that in the 50s flu outbreaks saw restrictions and schools closed just like this corinavirus. Also please remember that the death rate from coronavirus is currently running at about 25 times that of an average flu year. So lets hope the effects of this will be the same as an average flu year – but we are a long way from that still.
Reopening too quickly cann never be mentioned in the same sentence as Ireland anyway..
@Nigel o’Neill: We’re one of very few countries in Europe that doesn’t currently require a negative test or quarantine to enter. And among the first to do that this year – many are actually still adding new testing/quarantine requirements.
Also, we’ve had no lockdown this winter, compared to other countries. Besides early pub closing, most people have been mainly able to go about life as normal. Other European countries have not only shut hospitality altogether but also shut their borders and some are even now in complete lockdown.
Not saying Ireland’s doing everything perfect, but I think you’ll find that a fairly good balance has actually been managed for months now and we appear to be nearly on the other side for this winter, with a high seroprevalence and low mortality.
Yes Ireland has been the slower of all European countries when reopening after previous waves and variants. They might try to be a little quicker this time unless Varadakar is spoofing us again.
It always was mild even at its peak it had a 95% recovery rate
@Why Biscuits: With almost 5 million 600 thousand people having passed away from it. How can you call that mild.
@Gary Kearney: out of how many?
Can someone help clarify does the lifting of restrictions include the removal of the emergency Covid vaccine pass? Now that the virus is on the way down (nothing to do with vaccines by the way as we know vaccinated get infected at similar rates) and we know vaccination doesn’t materially impact transmission there seems little justification to mandate vaccination for access to services?
@Toon Army: as we know that vaccination does materially affect transmission (e.g. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc2106757) your premise is false.
@Nicholas McMurry: really, because I’m fairly sure that the half a million people who got the Omnicron over the past month or two l, a fair portion of them have been vaccinated.
@Thomas: Your point does not negate Nicholas’s point at all. Vaccines don’t need to have had zero breakthrough infections to not have materially reduced transmission. As evidenced by the scientific studies, vaccination has made a material dent in transmission and an enormous dent in hospitalization & mortality.
Another example of selective use of the WHO during this pandemic -
WHO says don’t open too fast and be cautious –
Irish media = see the WHO are advising we be should be cautious snd reopen slowly
WHO says pleaaae delay 4th shot boosters and send vaccines instead to 3rd world who haven’t even got their first shot
Irish media narrative = it’s only the WHO and its only advice snd sure isn’t China pulling the strings there anyway – we don’t need to pay any need to what the WHO says
Hypocricy much??
@Dave Hammond: think you’re getting confused as to what hypocrisy really means. Conflicting or contradictory statements don’t necessarily make someone/something a hypocrite.
@Dave Hammond: What happened to countries that opened up to fast is an example of why caution is required.
The infection rate skyrocketed.
Numbers are coming down nicely, hospital numbers too. Sadly we are losing a lot of people to this mild version of covis-19.
So that says to me careful is the only way to go.
@Gary Kearney: how many died from omicron and only omicron?
@Dave Hammond: WHO also asked us to stop cycling our PCRs at 45ct 1yr ago, as we were picking up too many false positives.
Didn’t listen there. Also said mild in kids, and to vaccinate vulnerable kids only. But hey who are the WHO.
Time to scrap the covid passports and open society. MSM and govt have a lot of questions to answer.
@Gary Kearney: we are not loosing a lot of people to this mild version at all – that’s the same sort of nonsense you have been spouting for 2 years – as usual completely devoid of the facts – go check up the actual data on numbers admitted directly as a result of omicron numbers in icu treated directly as a result of omicron infection and death as a result of omicron infection -, we are not loosing a lot of people to this milder version at all – complete bs
@TomTraubert: please read my comment again – I did not suggest hypocrisy on behalf of the WHO for issuing conflicting advice – I suggested it’s hypocrisy from people who selectively point to WHO advice when it suits their narrative
Anticipates? A bit slow off the mark!
This is exactly what virologists have said from the start it just needs time to mutate. A yearly non mandatory booster like the flu shot is what will be offered folk next year.
@Jason Walsh: I think a year is being optimistic
Think countries will jump the hun here ‘ Omicron yes is mild in terms of illness effect ‘ but there will be other mutations that will come that may be more deadly than all the others’ I think a cautious approach is required
have your say