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THE DELTA VARIANT of the coronavirus now accounts for 99% of confirmed and probable cases across the UK.
In just one week there has been a 79% rise in cases of this variant, with the British government forced to implement a four-week pause on the full lifting of restrictions in England as they race to vaccinate the population and control this more transmissible strain.
The data shows that 75,953 confirmed and probable cases of the Covid-19 Delta variant have now been found in the UK – up by 33,630 on the previous week. Of the 75,953, some 70,856 have been in England, 4,659 in Scotland, 254 in Northern Ireland and 184 in Wales.
The increase in Covid-19 cases all across the UK is being driven by younger, unvaccinated age groups, public health officials have said. These younger age groups have now been invited for a vaccination as the jab rollout extends to anyone aged 18 and over.
While the Delta variant is now the most dominant in Britain – and is likely to soon become the most dominant in Northern Ireland – Delta case numbers in the Republic of Ireland have remained at a stable level, with no signs, for now, of sudden surges that have been seen in England in particular.
Speaking to The Journal, Dr Fidelma Fitzpatrick consultant and senior lecturer in microbiology at the Royal College of Surgeons (RCSI) explained that the Alpha variant, formerly known as B117, which arrived in Ireland just before Christmas, is still the dominant strain here.
To date there have been 180 cases of the Delta variant identified in Ireland, which accounts for just 5% of sequenced cases.
“We’re still not seeing that explosion that they’ve seen in Britain,” Dr Fitzpatrick said.
HSE
HSE
She said she believes the vaccination has been key to keeping levels of this variant low.
Data from Public Health England shows both the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines are effective against this variant – if a person has had their full two-dose schedule.
Both vaccines offer almost 50% protection against the Alpha variant after one dose but this drops to about 36% for the Pfizer vaccine and 30% for the AstraZeneca jab when they come up against the Delta variant.
Two weeks after the second dose of the Pfizer vaccine it offers 88% protection against symptomatic disease with the Delta variant and 96% protection against hospitalisation, while the AstraZeneca jab offers 67% protection against symptomatic disease and 92% protection against hospitalisation.
Data shows the increase in cases in England have been primarily in younger age groups who are not yet vaccinated.
While cases of the #Delta#COVID19 variant are rising rapidly across the country, the increase is primarily in younger age groups who are now being invited to receive the #vaccine. pic.twitter.com/8d0weaCvrq
As of 14 June, 806 people in England have been admitted to hospital with the Delta variant of Covid-19, a rise of 423 on the previous week, according to Public Health England data.
Of the 806 admitted, 527 (65%) were unvaccinated, 135 (17%) were more than 21 days after their first dose of vaccine, and 84 (10%) were more than 14 days after their second dose.
As of June 14, there have been 73 deaths in England of people who were confirmed as having the Delta variant and who died within 28 days of a positive test. Of this number, 34 (47%) were unvaccinated, 10 (14%) were more than 21 days after their first dose of vaccine and 26 (36%) were more than 14 days after their second dose.
PA
PA
Data from Ireland’s Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) indicate a similar age-related trend in Ireland, with 57.9% of reported Delta cases among those aged 19-34 and a further 11.9% in those under the age of 18.
Almost 20% of cases with the Delta variant are among those aged 35-44, dropping to 9.5% in the 45-64 age group. Less than 1% of cases of this strain are among those aged over 65, the majority of whom have now received at least one dose of vaccine, while a significant proportion are fully vaccinated.
“To me, that tells me that’s vaccination making that impact,” Dr Fitzpatrick said. “The vaccination programme has been a game-changer here, we’ve seen that in hospitals in particular where in December and January we had lots of positive cases and suddenly those numbers just fell off a cliff.”
The fact that Ireland has had tighter restrictions in place nationally, as well as travel measures such as mandatory hotel quarantine and PCR testing, has also likely helped keep a Delta surge at bay.
“England has a bigger population and also historic links with countries where Delta originated, moreso than we have,” she said.
The Delta variant was first identified in India and spread rapidly throughout the country, causing hospitals to become overwhelmed.
“If you look at the data here, travel history is a factor in a significant proportion of cases, followed by close contacts. So you have people travelling in who have it and then surprise, surprise, their close contacts become positive as well, which is what you’d expect,” Dr Fitzpatrick said.
So in terms of mandatory hotel quarantine and at home quarantine, everything that contains it helps. The idea behind the quarantine period is that you’re staying in one place for that period of time, so you could be negative at the start of the week but then positive later on and this limits the spread.
While restrictions both nationally and in terms of travel clearly help keep control of transmission levels, it is not a longterm solution.
“Definitely restrictions limit the spread. Now there are obviously consequences for other sectors of society, but our restrictions have been more more stringent than in the UK,” she said.
“The lesson we’ve learned about Covid is that the virus is very transmissible and some variants are even more transmissible, once it gets in it can spread and you need a mixture of infection control and public health measures and then also a strong vaccination programme.
“Of course if everyone stays home it won’t transmit but we can’t keep everyone locked up forever, that’s no way to live, so that’s why vaccination is going to be so important going forward.”
- With reporting from PA.
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@Larry Williams: Explain what is experimental about something that has taken up the bulk of the resources of every major pharmaceutical company in the world for the last 18 months, has gone through the same level of clinical trials and scrutiny as any other medication, had the results and data reviewed by experts and approved for use on the back of those reviews
@Phil Redmond: approved for emergency use only, actual trials end in 2023, have a look on any of the vaccine manufacturers websites and see for yourself.
Carry on guinea pig…..nothing to see here
@Phil Redmond: Agree with everything you have said but we can go further with it, the first mRNA vaccine was demonstrated in 1990 (30 years ago). Part of the reason that there was such a quick roll out is as @Phil Redmond says but also the nature of the mRNA vaccines.
They are basically an architecture can be adapted to any virus once the virus has been sequenced. In an interview, the lead scientist from Moderna said that the vaccine that was pushed out was the same one that they made 24hrs after getting the covid dna sequence back in Jan 20.
Most drugs when been approved have long gaps while they wait for funding or to pass an approval stage, with everyone focused on Covid, there was no shortage of money and the regulators where actively reviewing the research as soon as it hit their desk.
Not some conspiracy theory, just a massive group of people with one focus/goal in mind!!
@WiseUp: no tinfoil hat here, just actual facts, that these vaccines are approved for emergency use only, please stop trying to twist facts.
Read it for yourself on any of the manufacturers websites.
@Larry Williams: So now we live in US, EMA doesnt have an “emergency use authorisation”. Its conditional market authorisation. Where the drug is approved prior to some of the long term studies been ready based on the fact that the pharma company has demonstrated safety and the benefits outweigh the risks
from the EMA website:
A conditional marketing authorisation is one of EU’s regulatory mechanisms for facilitating early access to medicines that fulfil an unmet medical need, including in emergency situations such as the current pandemic.
A conditional marketing authorisation is a formal authorisation of the vaccine, covering all batches produced for the EU and providing a robust assessment to underpin vaccination campaigns.
As Comirnaty is recommended for a conditional marketing authorisation, the company that markets Comirnaty will continue to provide results from the main trial, which is ongoing for 2 years. This trial and additional studies will provide information on how long protection lasts, how well the vaccine prevents severe COVID-19, how well it protects immunocompromised people, children and pregnant women, and whether it prevents asymptomatic cases.
The company will also carry out studies to provide additional assurance on the pharmaceutical quality of the vaccine as the manufacturing continues to be scaled up.
@Paul Furey: another vacinne bully, shame, shame, shame, are then insulting people’s intelligence and questioning their eduction, are u a proud vaccine bully, let us know
@Larry Williams: the journal fact finding team, lol, nice one Larry, your not getting much of a fightback here are u, bravo to you sir, yea I love those fact finding articles with comments closed, vaccine bully’s everywhere, people should be free to get it or don’t get it, personal choice and leave it at that
@Toon Army: The fully vaccinated people were from the higher risk groups ; the elderly & those with underlying health conditions. And as the vaccines are not 100% effective you are going to see people dying. However, the vaccines are still extremely safe & effective.
@Larry Williams: They are not experimental they are fully cleared drugs which passed all the test required. For the first time ever research was open source on the virus and that’s why they were able to develop vaccines and get them cleared. Most of them are based on already approved drugs and that fasten the development of them as well. They were experimental 12 months ago.
@Colm O’ Shea: I doubt if you know what’s in your food, or the pints you can now once again enjoy in the pub. So, what’s with you’re “my body is a temple” attitude to the vaccines? Do you “know” what’s in the painkillers/ cold remedies/ etc that you buy over the counter?
Schools in England don’t finish until mid July, that’ll be a huge drivinf force for spread of the virus there. With our schools pretty much done, hopefully we can hold the delta variant at bay until the second dose round of AZ are done and that vulnerable group is fully vaccinated.
I’m in the 40-44 cohort and going for mine on Tuesday and vey happy for it.
@Paul Furey: you don’t need to be a doctor to read how Tony and Co operate, to coin a sporting phrase, they are a one trick pony brigade who will revert back to what they only know in terms of dealing with covid. He’s already trying to shut down people travelling over the border and complaining about gatherings. So ya id say the whole concern about indoor gatherings won’t be far behind next
@Michael Healy: The trick they use works. So you use what works. If there was another way they would use that. They use the best system available to them.
Wonder has tony ever let his hair down and gone out and had a nights craic …ever.. think I read somewhere he got the freedom of Dublin lately .. he’d probably graze his sheep in pods of 4 at 45 minute rotations on st Stephens green and make sure his sheepdog rounds them up with out leaving Grafton street.. ( if it doesn’t get bottled) #nocraictony
@Paul Furey: and what’s gonna happen come winter Paul?. Genuinely how does Tony and Co spin any kind of restrictions when we have close to everyone vaccinated and another variant pops up and the ill prepared and badly managed hse which is always on the brink every winter has a hissy fit over even a small covid surge, which already has happened with reports of over crowding even with the lowest amount of covid cases in hospitals. Telling people then to give up another Christmas or shutting down things like hospitality cos Tony doesn’t think gatherings are a good idea will not be so easily sold then.
@Michael Healy: 3rd one shot booster vaccine. Along with the flu vaccine. If needed. the surge is unlikely because the vaccines do work pretty well against the delta variant
So according to this article 36% of people who died of the variant in England were fully vaccinated and 47% weren’t. How does this make the vaccine effective exactly?
@Fionnuala O’Brien:
Out of the 806 people admitted with Delta, only 10% of the people admitted were fully vaccinated. Based on the fact that around 50% of the UK population is fully vaccinated, the 10% shows that the vaccine is providing a huge amount of protection against hospitalisation
@Fionnuala O’Brien: if the vaccine is 88 percent effective until herd immunity 12 percent of the vaccinated population will still be vulnerable. We saw this in cork in ucc in 2018 when the kids most affected by ” mrr causes autism ” reached college.There was a major outbreak of mumps in the unvaccinated kids but 20 percent of the vaccinated group also got mumps because no herd immunity in the college because mrr is 80 percent
Effective.
@Larry Williams: absolutely fake news, Google the website and bias. Extract of the wiki entry “Natural News (formerly NewsTarget, which is now a separate sister site) is a far-right, anti-vaccination conspiracy theory and fake news website known for promoting alternative medicine, pseudoscience and far-right extremism.[1][2][3][4]”
Jesus man, if you are going to ask about fake news try not to point to a crackpot website
@Fionnuala O’Brien: No vaccine is100% perfect and these numbers are about average for two dose vaccines. Which have high protection rates. You have to give the vaccines time to work. Those people never got the chance to let it work
The trigger will be pulled soon on indoor dining and travel, its not a matter of if but when. The interesting part will come winter when we have a large portion of people fully vaccinated but the variants could appear and the useless run hse aren’t prepared as we have seen already with report’s of over crowding and it’s bloody summer. Telling people to stay away from jobs then or enforcing restrictions when people are fully vaccinated after telling them for a year things would be great once they stayed lockdown till granny and themselves were vaccinated, is going to be hard to sell….
@Michael Healy: Can you point me in the direction of the reports of over crowding?
Covid is going be with us for a long time and there will always be variants/mutations but with a sizeable portion of the population vaccinated, covid can be treated in the same way as flu, not fun but generally not too serious.
When you talk the delta variant, people who are fully vaccinated are protected 92-96% against hospitalisations. If anything, I would see us landing in a similar position to NZ, internally all restrictions will be removed but on the borders restrictions will flex in line with the covid situation outside our country. e.g. if a new variant spikes in the UK, then quarantine may be put in place for them
@Michael Burke: Well there’s no point living in the land of milk and honey in relation to vaccines saving the day and getting us normality. I had to listen to the same mob for a year in 2020 telling me just give up this year and when vaccines come along it’s all gonna be just fine…..they ain’t leaving the covid powers in place till November for the fun of it
@Michael Healy: only small proportion of people are fully vaccinated though. You might be but lots of us haven’t even had a first dose yet and a lot of older people haven’t had their second yet. There’s definitely been an attitude of “well I’m fully vaccinated so whey isn’t everything open” among alot of people lately
Awnser, its not. The Indian variant is already here. NEPHET don’t know what the true number of cases are because we don’t do sequence testing on each patient. Vaccines are helpful, but only for lowering serious illness…
In Ireland it is currently taking 3 weeks for a test sample to be analysed for the Delta variant, with not all test samples being analysed. The data looks good because we are not looking for the variant and when we do find it, our data will be old.
The article states that of those who died in the UK from the Delta variant 47% were unvaccinated while 50% were vaccinated with either one or two doses. This is not a great advertisement for the AZ vaccine which is what a good proportion of our health care workers have been given.
The British have stopped crowing about their vaccine success relative to the EU recently, Haven’t they? Going ahead with AZ seemed like a good idea at the time, but as it turns out it’s less effective against the delta variant and needs a longer time to get the second vaccine shot.
Strange that the article leaves out that after 2 dose of Pfizer, you have 90% protection from infection from the delta variant but only 60% protection from infection from the Az vaccine . Since 70% of the U.K. has had the Az vaccine , the number of cases there will always be higher
@Mike Kelly: the figure on protection from hospitalisation is also important. It is not just about preventing transmissios much as possible but about mitigating the severity of the virus if transmitted and reducing hospitalisation and death
I’m I reading that correctly that 73 people died from delta variant in uk up to mid June,it says 36% had both vaccines,17 % one and 47 % had none.
That seems a high % amount for those who had both vaccines.I thought they were 82% effective against it.
So basically written another way of the 73 people who have died of the Delta variant in the UK 47% were unvaccinated and 50% had either 1 or 2 jabs of the vaccine.
@PaleoIreland:Its wonderful how people can try to coerce numbers for their own point of view. Yes what you are saying is true but what about the fact only 10% of the people hospitalised were fully vaccinated?
At the min 50% of the UK population is fully vaccinated, if all things were equal then 50% of the admissions should be fully vaccinated people. You are cutting your chance of been hospitalised down by 80%. So what do you think is moving the dial on the numbers hospitalised?
@Colm O’ Shea: no it isn’t, because it’s a UK study and they haven’t investigated whether Moderna or Johnson and Johnson are effective against the Delta variant, they only used Pfizer and AstraZeneca in their study.
@Craig Barry: I did actually, but thank you for your advice. As it’s a UK study they haven’t investigated whether Moderna or Johnson and Johnson are effective against the Delta variant, they only used Pfizer and AstraZeneca in their study.
The UK is being run by psyhopaths, I wouldn’t believe a word out of their mouths. Why is Ivermectin being ignored?? Why are treatments being completely bypassed?
The article states that of those who died in the UK from the Delta variant 47% were unvaccinated while 50% were vaccinated with either one or two doses. Before saying the AZ vaccine is ineffective you have to look at how the UK clarify their COVID death figures. ‘Any one who has died within 28 days of testing positive for COVID-19’ people who get killed in a car crash within this period under this criteria would be put down to a ‘COVID death’ That is one reason why the UK death figures are so misleading.
@Hugh Fogerty: that’s bull which has been fact checked several times. When they talk about the 28 day figure, they use it as a cover all for the cluster of symptoms that covid can cause e.g. Heart failure, multi organ failure, hypoxia etc.
If the cause of death is nothing to do with covid as car crash in your example then it’s recorded as trauma or equivalent.
WHO guidance is, a death due to Covid-19 is defined as:
a death resulting from a clinically compatible illness, in a probable or confirmed Covid-19 case, unless there is a clear alternative cause of death that cannot be related to Covid disease.
@Colm OS: perhaps you could give me evidence for your statement, you are saying the media is incorrect, and even the government announcements make it clear.. anyone who has died who was diagnosed with COVID in the previous 28 days…
How can our vacination program be keeping delta out it is predominantly in 18 to 30 group few of these have even one shot yet doesn’t add up what they are saying
@john reynolds: it does. Because it is circulating largely within the unvaccinated population. Vaccinatoon protects from transmission or the development of severe Covid. I.E the more people vaccinated the less it transmits. It works like a pyramid. One person can transmit to more than one other and those people to more people again. The small the pool that can be transmitted within the better and the vaccine causes that pool to shrink drastically as we have already seen. When the 18-35 age cohorts are vaccinated that will further shrink the pool. That does add up and makes perfect sense. You can’t keep the Delta variant out completely but you can reduce its impact and it’s ability to spread.
Took my grandchildren camping in kerry this weekend…every campsite and the roads full of northern Irish and British regions cars and campers. ..and as usual government won’t take a decision to at least have some sort of border control. We are just recovering…people won’t be able to tolerate another lockdown
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