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'We don’t know how bad it’s going to get': Additional ICU surge capacity being built up, says Donnelly

The Health Minister said NPHET modelling estimates over 200 people will be in ICU in a few months.

THE DEPARTMENT OF Health is to begin the process of building extra surge capacity in intensive care units as modelling suggests that some 200 Covid-19 patients could be in ICU in a few months’ time, the Health Minister has said.

Stephen Donnelly was speaking in the Seanad ahead of the passing of legislation that will reopen indoor hospitality for the first time this year but for fully vaccinated or Covid-recovered persons only.

The government is planning to have the legislation signed into law next week, with the rules in place for 26 July. 

Ahead of today’s vote, which passed with 29 votes to seven, Donnelly said new modelling from the national public health emergency team (Nphet) shows that over 200 people would be in ICU in just a few months time.

The Minister told the Seanad that “we don’t know how bad it’s going to get” but this modelling is the “second-best scenario”. The government is looking at a lot of different models at the moment, in terms of the possible impact of the Delta variant.

“We know that the numbers in hospitals have doubled in the last three weeks, and because of exponential growth, they will continue to double,” said Donnelly. 

“We’re going to have to start building up additional surge capacity for ICU now, in case it happens.”

He added that the range given for fatalities for three months is between 335 and 1,760.

“Now, in the War of Independence about 2,300 people died, put it in context of what the deaths of 1,760 people would mean. So we’ve got to do everything we can to push that down and down and down.”

Rapid increase 

Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan warned those who are not fully vaccinated to “take every precaution this weekend”, as the country reported 1,179 Covid-19 cases in the last 24 hours.

Donnelly told the Seanad earlier today that the infection rate among the 16 to 18 year old cohort is now the same infection rates as at the peak in the October wave and “the line is vertical on the page”. He added that the line is also vertical for the 19 to 24 age group. 

“We’re looking at really quick infection rates for these groups and thank God most of them will be fine because of their age, but they won’t all be fine, and many of them will get long Covid – and we’re really only beginning to understand it. 

Professor Philip Nolan, chair of the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, said this evening that there is a “very rapid” increase in incidence in those aged 16 to 34-year-olds.

“The rise in those aged 16-18 years is exceptional. Please do everything you can to stay safe, and to encourage and support those around you to stay safe too,” Nolan tweeted this evening. 

Amid the rising cases of Covid-19, Taoiseach Micheál Martin told reporters that Ireland has been the slowest in Europe to reopen society and that this has been a “wise” approach. 

“The Delta variant is here, there will be an increase in case numbers, we’re watching very carefully the impact on hospitalisations and on ICUs,” Martin said. 

The online booking system for Covid-19 vaccines has today opened for the 25-29 age cohort

Those registering through the portal will receive a Pfizer or Moderna mRNA vaccine.

People aged 18-34 are also currently able to register with a pharmacy to receive the one-dose Janssen vaccine, subject to supply.

The HSE is also planning to roll out an opt-in system to allow those aged 18-34 to register on its vaccine portal to receive an AstraZeneca or Janssen vaccine in a vaccination centre.

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    Mute Tilden Kats
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    Jul 16th 2021, 10:21 PM

    If they couldn’t fix our healthcare system 16 months into a pandemic, what hope do we have

    618
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    Mute Andy Dunn
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:40 PM

    @Tilden Kats: Honestly, they don’t seem to have tried very hard.

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    Mute Paul Furey
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    Jul 17th 2021, 12:23 AM

    @Andy Dunn: 22nd best in the world at full vaccinations. That’s seems to be as a result of trying hard.

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    Mute James Cronin
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    Jul 17th 2021, 12:28 AM

    @Paul Furey: Mabye so but what benefits has it brought, little to none, they stated that vaccination was key to opening up society but all they have done is bullshited us and will try to do so

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    Mute Damo
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    Jul 17th 2021, 12:34 AM

    @Paul Furey: sorry Paul but he is absolutely spot on

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    Mute Elrond Rivendell
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    Jul 17th 2021, 10:04 AM

    @James Cronin: Nope. They were very clear. 80% was needed and we haven’t got there yet. They also consistently warned about the dangers posed by variants. The only people who didn’t hear this are those who didn’t want to.

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    Mute Vincent Bickerstaffe
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    Jul 16th 2021, 10:14 PM

    Is this a news report from 2020?

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    Mute Dave Hammond
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    Jul 17th 2021, 12:13 AM

    @Vincent Bickerstaffe: 1920

    54
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    Mute Paul Gorry
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    Jul 16th 2021, 10:20 PM

    This bloke Donnelly minister for health should never ever happen again imo.

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    Mute Sean cleary
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    Jul 17th 2021, 12:21 AM

    @Paul Gorry: he can’t even minister a pair of clean jocks on it’s a criminal offence that he was ever appointed any type of minister the cowboy

    74
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    Mute Leitrim303
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    Jul 16th 2021, 10:28 PM

    so the vaccines don’t work. whats the point in taking them

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    Mute David Jordan
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    Jul 16th 2021, 10:34 PM

    @Leitrim303: The infections are among the young who are mostly unvaccinated, not older people who are almost all vaccinated. It shows vaccines are working

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    Mute Stephen Kearon
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:04 PM

    @Leitrim303: vaccines do work, they all offer over 90% efficacy in preventing hospitalisations and serious illness from Covid, incl the Delta variant. Think of them being like safety belts, they give huge protection, but don’t make you immortal. Of the 124 admitted to ICU since April, 123 were not vaccinated.

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    Mute Andy Dunn
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:44 PM

    @David Jordan: Gibraltar had 32 cases today, 29 of which were in vaccinated people. Doesn’t seem like they’re working that well at all.

    51
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    Mute EvieXVI
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:49 PM

    @Leitrim303: that is literally the opposite of everything about COVID-19, but ok?

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    Mute Elaine Phelan
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:53 PM

    @Andy Dunn: got a link for that story? Had a look and couldn’t find that info anywhere

    35
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    Mute Paul Furey
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    Jul 17th 2021, 12:23 AM

    @Leitrim303: looks like you don’t understand

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    Mute Gerard Smith
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    Jul 17th 2021, 1:10 AM

    @Andy Dunn: how many of those cases had to be hospitalised? How many of those cases are now in ICU? Try thinking and getting some facts before you start talking rubbish. No one said you couldn’t catch the virus post vaccination but your much less likely to be seriously ill or hospitalised.

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    Mute Karl Burke
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    Jul 17th 2021, 8:36 AM
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    Mute Fenrir Wolfganger
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    Jul 17th 2021, 10:27 AM

    @Karl Burke: New cases, 28 Vaccinated, 1 Unvaccinated. Number in hospital:1. I’m no mathematician but that looks like vaccination works to me

    12
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    Mute Elaine Phelan
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    Jul 17th 2021, 10:02 PM

    @Karl Burke: thanks for sharing. It seems like 99% of people in Gibraltar are vaccinated (good for them) so it makes sense that any cases would be in those vaccinated. We already know there is a small risk of vaccinated people getting covid, but symptoms should be mild. How many people are currently in hospital or ICU with covid right now?

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    Mute John Boland
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    Jul 16th 2021, 10:10 PM

    Bull

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    Mute Eoin Fitzgerald
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    Jul 16th 2021, 10:16 PM

    @John Boland: cow

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    Mute Jim Buckley Barrett
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    Jul 16th 2021, 10:28 PM

    @John Boland: horse

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    Mute Ciarán O' Donoghue
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    Jul 16th 2021, 10:35 PM

    @John Boland: Egg

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    Mute Figo murphy
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    Jul 16th 2021, 10:46 PM

    @John Boland: French New Guiney jumping frog.

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    Mute David A. Murray
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    Jul 16th 2021, 10:53 PM

    @Figo murphy: Giant Madagascar Spitting Cockroaches. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WynTfnOE79s

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    Mute Alex Marquis
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    Jul 17th 2021, 10:33 AM

    @John Boland: ar$ebiscuits.

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    Mute Craig Mahon
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    Jul 16th 2021, 10:31 PM

    If the elderly and vulnerable are all vaccinated who exactly is going to be in all these extra ICU beds?

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    Mute Paul Clancy
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    Jul 16th 2021, 10:38 PM

    @Craig Mahon: the elderly and more vulnerable have a higher percentage rate of being made seriously ill by Covid. Younger people have a smaller percentage rate of being made seriously ill. Younger people are not immune to it and are at risk. It’s far better to prepare now then have to react.

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    Mute David Jordan
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    Jul 16th 2021, 10:38 PM

    @Craig Mahon: Younger unvaccinted patients, same effect was seen in other countries that vaccinated elderly first. This due to older vaccinated not falling ill.

    Here’s a few graphs that show this: https://imgur.com/gallery/AuwtHap

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    Mute Kevin Thompson
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    Jul 16th 2021, 10:55 PM

    @Craig Mahon: everyone is potentially vulnerable to get sick, those who are old and have underlying conditions were more vulnerable to death, the 60-70 year olds are just nearly completed 2 doses, but will still need 15 days for the 2nd dose to give it’s best protection

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    Mute Davey Ohanlon
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:32 PM

    @Craig Mahon:
    Covid combined with a particularly bad flu season and our hospitals may not be able to cope I’d imagine.
    God forbid we had something like a bad train/aeroplane crash on top of that and we would be screwed altogether.

    Even if the icu spaces are unused, we may still need them.

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    Mute Anthony Guinnessy
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    Jul 17th 2021, 1:14 AM

    @David Jordan: what percentage of this younger cohort requited icu attention the last wave (I say the last wave as its probably the closest we have to knowing how many of this demographic caught covid at any one period due to the level of testing carried out)? If we know this it shouldn’t be difficult to extrapolate out what the potential icu capacity might be going forward. If we do know this why is information like this not being made publicly available?

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    Mute Diarmuid O'Braonáin
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    Jul 16th 2021, 10:35 PM

    The under 30s are the least group of people at risk. Think the chances are like 1 in 500k. Pure nonsense and opinion backed up with no facts or evidence. All we need to do is look up the data on the CSO.

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    Mute Stephen Kearon
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:06 PM

    @Diarmuid O’Braonáin: thanks Doctor (graduated from FoolTube I take it?). Can you post a link to your peer reviewed research.

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    Mute Richard Williamson
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:09 PM

    @Diarmuid O’Braonáin: your 1 in 500 k seemed very low to me. In fact it would mean maybe 3/4 young people might die if there about 2 million of them. Maybe there’s less of them. Anyway after a quick search it appears that for young people from 18 -35 the IFR appears to be about ,01%. Still a small number but it’s now one in 10,000. There are a lot of young people out there. If the virus spreads wildly in the younger population this will lead to more heartache and loss. Btw I’m not saying a lockdown is the answer. But you are spreading lies about the severity of the disease. We need to do as much as we can reasonably do to suppress the virus until anyone who wants a vaccine gets it.

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    Mute Hear me now
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:09 PM

    @Stephen Kearon: give urself a like did ya…

    18
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    Mute pabloeskabab
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:26 PM

    @Richard Williamson: how come all of a sudden the young people are getting COVID? They weren’t an issue before. Very little of them getting sick until now. It’s was all 40 year olds and up. Mainly elderly. Must be the new variant for young people that don’t get sick from the last variant variant.

    16
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    Mute Richard Williamson
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:51 PM

    @pabloeskabab: probably because the restrictions and lockdown have relaxed. Again I’m not saying we should lockdown again. However clearly the older cohorts/ people have protection therefore a smaller % of them are contracting Covid. Add to that more socialising as restrictions relax and with the more transmissible delta variant case numbers will rise exponentially. Give it a month and these large case numbers with exponential growth will lead to more mortality and hospitalisations and Nphet modelling predictions are quickly looking plausible.

    19
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    Mute EvieXVI
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:53 PM

    @pabloeskabab: please try to at least make your argument coherent!

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    Mute Paul Cunningham
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    Jul 17th 2021, 12:10 AM

    @Diarmuid O’Braoniáin: another graduate from the Facebook school of misinformation

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    Mute Diarmuid O'Braonáin
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    Jul 17th 2021, 12:29 AM

    @Paul Cunningham: Just look up the CSO data on Covid, I did mention it in the post above, its the govts own data. Its not from Facebook or any social media site. Why are the govt saying the opposite of what the data is showing? We all know the people from 70 up need to be very careful. They also have it that 90% of covid fatalities had an underlying condition.

    Most if not a large majority of young people in this category are well on the way to being fully vaccinated. I know someone with an underlying condition fully vaccinated and they are 21. That leaves the young people under 30 with no underlying conditions left to be vaccinated. These are they one group of people we’ve being told all along by all the major world organisations that they are not at risk from Covid.

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    Mute Stephen Grehan
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    Jul 16th 2021, 10:59 PM
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    Mute Barty
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    Jul 16th 2021, 10:30 PM

    Stephen wouldn’t get elected to the Ballymagash Urban District Council.

    77
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    Mute David Van-Standen
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:12 PM

    No doubt the next two weeks are critical…

    70
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    Mute d
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    Jul 16th 2021, 10:11 PM

    Oh really, that would not have nothing to do with summer ending and winter springing…DOH!

    61
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    Mute Toon Army
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    Jul 16th 2021, 10:58 PM

    We don’t know how bad its going to get. We have an idea. It’s already curling over in UK despite increased socialising in UK and everything being open. Proves lockdown and restrictions have no impact! Martin saying we have had the slowest reopening and this is wise is utterly false!

    67
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    Mute GrumpyAulFella
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:06 PM

    @Toon Army: lockdowns have no impact? Back to bed with you lad. There is no lockdown here. The danger is we go back into lockdown. If lockdowns don’t work how come our fatality rate is so low?

    52
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    Mute Hear me now
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:14 PM

    @GrumpyAulFella: how do you know what the fatality rate is…thought we had no figures on that since the Cyber Attack in the HSE nearly 2 months ago now.

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    Mute Toon Army
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:32 PM

    @GrumpyAulFella: There has been no correlation between severity of lockdowns and fatality rates. This is well proven at this rate. The reason for our ongoing prolonged lockdown approach is due to nothing but sheer ineptitude and unwillingness to respond to international science.

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    Mute Verners Tess
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    Jul 17th 2021, 12:06 PM

    @GrumpyAulFella:
    Sweden % of covid deaths from total population 0.14%
    Ireland % of covid deaths from total population 0.10%

    Sweden % of covid deaths from cases 1.34%
    Ireland % of covid deaths from cases 1.79%

    Now prove to me lockdowns work?

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    Mute kevin mc cormack
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:07 PM

    How badly designed is our health system that the policy is to scare the crap out of people weekly in order to keep an extremely low amount or people give our population out of hospital beds, this constant stepping on people’s throats is damaging mental health to a far greater degree than the current Covid situation, hospitals will be full of people who can’t make sense of life anymore if they don’t cut it out

    103
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    Mute Toon Army
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:35 PM

    @kevin mc cormack: Great point. The CMO comment that parents shouldn’t bring their children to restaurants when they reopen was the turning point for many. That along with the snake oil comment show the type of people we’re dealing with. Dispand NPHET now.

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    Mute Elaine Phelan
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:57 PM

    @Toon Army: why? It was always nphets advice to not have unvaccinated people indoors in pubs and restaurants. The government bowed to public and industry pressure to allow children. The health advice can be and often is different to the government decisions

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    Mute Anthony Guinnessy
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    Jul 17th 2021, 1:54 AM

    @Elaine Phelan: nphet advice! Not the rear if Europe and since covid doesn’t really effect kids and they are going to be in a room full of vaccinated people with possibly a few other unvaccinated kids then why would it be an issue? Why antigen testing isn’t being used in all work places at this stage I can’t fathom, catching 70% of cases is better than none.

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    Mute Nicholas Byrne
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    Jul 17th 2021, 1:09 AM

    Modelling Indicates that over 200 people will be in ICU!
    “We’re going to have to start building up additional surge capacity for ICU now, in case it happens.”

    Really ? ”have to start building up”

    50
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    Mute Nollaig Ó Ceallaigh
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    Jul 17th 2021, 12:23 PM

    @Nicholas Byrne: Kinda makes you wonder what they thought the point of all those lockdowns was. Flatten the curve, my @rse. Was saying it 6-8 months ago: the time for bolstering the HSE was was back then. Only now, with Delta on the horizon are they bothering to “start building up”.

    11
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    Mute Robert Clifford
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:26 PM

    This guy is a top class spoofer. First he’s on about a trampoline being dangerous and now he’s comparing what might happen,to the war of independence where the IRB were armed with weapons supplied by Dennis The Menace and Gnasher against the British Army and he somehow reckons that these potential figures are equatable. It’s frankly laughable if you ask me.

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    Mute OnlyHereForTheComments
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    Jul 17th 2021, 1:42 AM

    @Robert Clifford: Speaking of top class spoofers

    8
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    Mute Paul Dolan
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:22 PM

    Should have been done 15 months ago

    41
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    Mute James Cronin
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    Jul 17th 2021, 12:24 AM

    Jesus H Christ Donnelly.. quoting war of independence in regards Covid deaths….does anything he says make any sense

    51
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    Mute Aonghus O Flaherty
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    Jul 17th 2021, 1:03 AM

    Vaccines work or not lads?

    28
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    Mute Damo
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    Jul 17th 2021, 12:03 AM

    Did he actually mention the War of Independence?

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    Mute James Cronin
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    Jul 17th 2021, 8:33 AM

    @Damo: yep, 9th paragraph said 2300 died and spoke about putting that into context..

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    Mute Nollaig Ó Ceallaigh
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    Jul 17th 2021, 12:26 PM

    @James Cronin: An idea he stole from Joe Biden re: WWII, I believe.

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    Mute Slaney Cox
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    Jul 17th 2021, 12:44 AM

    How are we preparing for a surge in ICU if the most vulnerable are vaccinated?

    24
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    Mute Dave Lanigan
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:24 PM

    Some his soul for a pension. Obviously has our best interests at heart

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    Mute Sean Walsh
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    Jul 17th 2021, 8:50 AM

    I live in the Netherlands. Compared to what’s happening here, I think the Irish govt is doing a good job.

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    Mute Neil Neart
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    Jul 16th 2021, 11:56 PM

    Awful comments.

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    Mute Paul Cunningham
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    Jul 17th 2021, 12:12 AM

    @Neil Neart: any article with anti vaxxers spouting nonsense without evidence or well sourced links are going to be awful takes.

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    Mute Damo
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    Jul 17th 2021, 12:20 AM

    @Paul Cunningham: Paul, you are seriously self-righteous

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    Mute Mary Nugent
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    Jul 17th 2021, 3:07 AM

    All lies Steo.

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    Mute Margaret Kane
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    Jul 17th 2021, 1:53 PM

    First they blamed the elderly then they blamed the middle aged now blaming the young next it’ll be new born babies never blame themselves for making a complete hash of covid government is a disgrace

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    Mute Sean
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    Jul 17th 2021, 12:52 PM

    Donnelly is useless

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    Mute Jason Ebbs
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    Jul 17th 2021, 6:15 PM

    So 18 months into this they are still talking about building up ICU capacity. Well done lads !!!

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    Mute Darren Carroll
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    Jul 17th 2021, 6:17 PM

    Only 16 months of a world pandemic and an ever lasting lockdown to come up with this idea

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