THE NATIONAL ENERGY grid operator has said there is a “significantly lower” risk for system alerts in the next six months, compared to what was anticipated last year.

EirGrid has released its annual ‘Winter Outlook’, which provides expectations for the electricity supply and demand in the country to help inform the electricity industry and support preparation for the coming months. 

The Winter Outlook report identifies the Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE), which is the number of hours that energy generation will likely fall short of demand. The higher this number is, the greater the risk that there will be insufficient generation available.

According to the report, the LOLE between 4 November this year and 6 April next year is 3.6 hours.

This is down considerably from 21 hours last winter, and from 51 hours the previous winter.

However, it is just outside the 3-hour annual LOLE Standard which is set for Ireland, meaning the system will operate at a higher level of risk than is set by the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications.

EirGrid cited a number of reasons for the improvement, including the implementation of the Security of Supply Programme. 

The programme, which is led by the Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU), was in response to EirGrid’s identification of a potential capacity shortfall if no action was taken, from 2021 to 2026.

Eirgrid said that as a result of the programme, 505 MW of Temporary Emergency Generation (TEG) is now available as an additional generation option to engineers in its control centre if needed.

It also said that 190 MW of new gas fired generators and 270 MW of new batteries will be available this winter as a result of auctions in the Capacity Market.

Risk 

There is an expectation that the system could enter the Alert State at times, the report states. This would most likely be during periods of low wind and low interconnector imports.

“However this risk is deemed much lower than the previous winter,” it said

There is a low probability of the system entering the Emergency State (Red) due to insufficient generation being available to meet the demand.

The expected amount of energy not supplied during a period – known as the Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) – is 580 MWh. 

According to the report, this would suggest that, on average, electricity consumers could potentially be without supply for less than 10 minutes over the winter period.

It also states that alerts do not necessarily mean that consumers will be without supply for any period, with emergency protocols in place with large energy users that would “mitigate the impact on homes and businesses” when there is one hour’s notice of the event. 

“It’s positive to see that the situation has improved considerably this winter compared to previous years,” Diarmaid Gillespie, director of System Operations at EirGrid, said.

He said that while the situation was more challenging last year, there was only one system alert due to reduced generation capacity margins and no system emergency during the winter period.

“This was due to daily engagement and reciprocal support arrangements with transmission system operators in Great Britain and Continental Europe,” Gillespie said.

“We will continue to meet the needs of electricity demand growth in Ireland as we manage the secure transition to a renewable led power system in a complex and evolving supply-demand dynamic.”