AS THE CELEBRATIONS and post-mortems begin across the various parties and independents following the local elections, polling day data suggests that a strong ground game is as key as ever.
Polling conducted by Ireland Thinks on polling day last Friday show that respondents were much more likely to have met candidates from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael during the campaign.
As the final few council seats are being filled, the two parties are battling it out to become the largest party, with evidence of the ground game visibile in the poll.
Asked did they meet any of the campaigning candidates from the parties, 35% of respondents said they had met a Fianna Fáil candidate, followed closely by Fine Gael at 34%.
Driving home the importance of familiarity, the poll also found that support for the specific candidate over their party was much stronger among Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael supporters than it was for Sinn Féin.
Asked if they would vote for their selected candidate if they were in another party, 34% of both Fianna and Fine Gael voters said yes, compared to just 18% of Sinn Féin voters.
On this particular question, Labour voters appeared to have the most direct connection with the candidate, with 35% saying they would support the candidate regardless of party.
Sinn Féin will be disappointed to be a long way behind in third place at 18%, with this figure being raised as a potential reason why Sinn Féin has polled far below the party’s expectations.
Sinn Féin will also be disappointed with a finding in the poll which showed that Fine Gael had more support among respondents to the poll who are private renters.
The poll showed that Fine Gael won the support of 20% of private renters, followed by Sinn Féin at 18%, Fianna Fáil at 11% and the Social Democrats.
This contrasts sharply with a The Journal/Ireland Thinks poll from during the campaign which found that those who rent privately were more likely to vote for Sinn Féin at 27% compared to Fine Gael at 17%.
Among those who rent from councils, Sinn Féin also failed to win outright support, securing 20% of votes form that cohort, jointly with Fianna Fáil at the same figure.
Among mortgage holders, Fine Gael (24%) and Fianna Fáil (23%) secured the most amount of support ahead of Sinn Féin (13%).
Among the other interesting nuggets from the polling day poll includes information on when voters made up their minds, with almost half of voters saying they made up their minds only in the final days of campaigning.
This is made up of 16% of people who made up their minds on voting day or the day previous, and 29% of people who made up their minds in the week before polling.
This late decision perhaps coincided with a period when the pressure on Sinn Féin and Mary Lou McDonald was rising amid declining polling numbers.
Only 8% of people said they ‘always’ vote for the party they opted for, with 27% saying they made their minds up in the three weeks before polling or when the date was confirmed.
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This work is co-funded by Journal Media and a grant programme from the European Parliament. Any opinions or conclusions expressed in this work are the author’s own. The European Parliament has no involvement in nor responsibility for the editorial content published by the project. For more information, see here.
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