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THE ESRI IS predicting a strong performance by the Irish economy next year despite Brexit likely hitting exports.
The Economic and Social Research Institute is predicting GDP growth of 3.5% for 2017 following 4.2% this year.
A continued decline in the rate of unemployment is also expected with a forecast of 6.8% by the end of next year. Currently the rate sits at 7.3%.
The ESRI says that growth could potentially have been higher were it not for the Brexit vote and other “trade-related uncertainty”.
Despite this, domestic sources of demand are being described as “robust”, leading to the ESRI’s overall positive quarterly assessment.
“The building and construction components of investment have picked up in recent quarters and should continue to grow into the New Year, resulting in approximately 17,500 housing completions in 2017,” reads a summary of the report.
The ESRI also says that consumer sentiment has remained steady in recent months and is above the long-term average. It is predicting strong consumption growth of 3.5% in 2017.
The report’s author Kieran McQuinn warns, however, that there is significant uncertainty surrounding Brexit.
“It is increasingly apparent at this stage that it may take some time before the necessary trade arrangements are concluded,” he says.
Until that happens, variables such as exchange rates, stock market returns, producer and consumer sentiment may continue to display heightened volatility. This, inevitably, impacts on our assessment of the trade performance of the Irish economy.
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Christ, whatever you do, don’t ever predict anything good for the country. Journal commenters hate good news. SF keyboard warriors out in force this morning, hating that unemployment will fall. What patriots.
Good news. Strong economic growth continues for another year. Huge momentum in the construction and investment sectors. Look at the cranes on the Dublin skyline.
You do realise that Ireland extends beyond the Dublin city skyline?
Yep, in fact unemployment has fallen fastest in the south-west of the country.
The same ESRI that predicted economic growth in 2008.
They also said 3.5% growth back in 2008 and for 2010 to be a good year for growth. https://www.esri.ie/ /medium-term-review-2008-11/
Same that predicted a “soft-landing” in 2007/8 lol
They also predicted 4.2% growth for 2016 this time last year and were bang on the money.
@Fred Johnson: gdp figures are disappointing though only 3.5%, a big drop from 26% eh Fred.
@Derek Poutch: But the GNP figure of 8% for this year is remarkably strong.
I predict that the predictions will not be true. Seriously what’s the point in these. We make fun of psychics and fortune tellers but this is the exact same and for some reason we’re supposed to just accept it.
Totally agree.
@Simon Peters: They only predict what fg tell them to predict.
I reckon I can predict a few things. More people going homeless, more house repossessions, higher rents, more hospital waiting lists, politicians giving themselces a generous pay rise.
@Adrian: augh….tut tut tut Adrain..get that feel good factor, get into the Christmas spirit, we have turned the corner, in 2017 we are going to take the Celtic tiger out for a walk again..don’t be negative, don’t be pessimistic ..keep drinking Ltrs and Ltrs of that Christmas spirit and you to will turn into a pissed optimist with a lost sense of direction… as Mr Kenny follows Trumps lead to ‘MAKE IRELAND GREAT AGAIN’…ok fair enough, great for the select few, but great again never the less, because once them select few convince themselves the country has started making them money then thats the arument over, never mind what the rest of us think or what reality is.
Who is paying for these BS predictions FG/FF?
@Martin Ryan: Mystic Moggy and goat intrails?
The ersi is a self perpetuating bunch of bullshit artists, who frankly get paid for talking up the economy, with predictions based on their interpretation of flawed statistics, in the face of continuing downturn and financial hardship across the country. The only other group of people in the prediction business, who are held to account less, for their flawed predictions are newspaper astrologers!
Financial weather men for government didn’t hear much from these guys for eight long suffering years ,”come on let’s party like it’s 1999″
Keep the recovery going lads.
@Alex Falcone: sounds like ER !..in fact it looks like it to haaaaa
@Alex Falcone: I bet someone said the same on the Titanic as well?
This time next year I’ll be tearing down the Lee with a brand new jetski under my hole and a gourmet fairtrade organic artisan breakfast roll in my hand
@Quiet Goer: Health and Safety would stop you as your roll might get wet?
Well Hello everybody from Rural Ireland…..Could somebody open the door and let this continued economic growth out to rural Ireland…because one quick journey through it suggests the complete opposite.
@CJ Stewart: It is a tale of two economies. Dublin is growing very strongly and is in fact being hampered by lack of infrastructure. Rural Ireland is stagnant. It is hard to see a solution for this other than continued migration to the cities.
The days of getting a factory into Kanturk or wherever to make widgets and employ locals are long gone.
Ah yeah, the experts. Hopefully they changed staff since the ones in 2008 missed the biggest economic crash in history.
At the Old Moore’s Almanac again or is that Old Moore’s Armagnac ???
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