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LAST UPDATE | 27 May 2019
EUROPE’S MAINSTREAM POLITICAL parties took a hit in yesterday’s elections, amid a strong surge by the populist right of Marine Le Pen, Matteo Salvini and Nigel Farage.
With a double-digit score across Europe’s biggest countries – including 20% of the vote in Germany and a strong showing in Ireland – the Greens bagged record gains in European elections yesterday amid calls for action on climate change.
The main centre-right and centre-left groups, however, lost their combined majority in the European Parliament in the face of a challenge by eurosceptic and nationalist forces.
The symbolic clash of the campaign saw French far-right leader Le Pen’s National Rally on course to come in neck and neck with President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist movement, damaging his drive for deeper European integration.
In Britain, Farage’s one-issue Brexit Party has trounced the main parties and he will send a large contingent of British eurosceptics to a parliament they want to leave in a few months.
And in Italy, Salvini’s far-right League achieved a similar result, strengthening its role at the core of a vocal populist faction in the EU’s legislature.
The advance of the right was less pronounced in Germany – where a strong showing by the Greens was reflected in a “green wave” in many countries – but the anti-immigrant AfD broke the 10-percent barrier.
“We are facing a shrinking centre,” said German conservative Manfred Weber, lead candidate for the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) to replace Jean-Claude Juncker as European Commission chief.
Turnout
Turnout EU-wide was estimated at 51%, the highest in 20 years, suggesting more than 200 million citizens across the 28-nation bloc voted in a poll billed as a battle between populists and pro-European forces. Ireland was just below the average with a 49% turnout.
Across Europe, according to updated projections prepared by the parliament, the EPP is on course to have the most seats in the assembly with 179, down sharply from 216 in 2014.
With the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) projected to win 150, down from 185, the two mainstream parties will no longer have a majority and will have to reach out to liberals to maintain a “cordon sanitaire” and exclude the far-right from decision making.
The Liberals (ALDE), who include Macron’s party, are on course for 107 seats against 69 previously while the Greens are forecast to take 70 seats, up from 52.
The various populist, eurosceptic and right-wing parties won more than 150 seats, but form no coherent coalition.
Here’s how some exit polls were shaping up around the continent.
France
In France, Macron had taken it upon himself to act as a figurehead for the centrist and liberal parties, and Marine Le Pen took up the 41-year-old’s challenge.
“It is up to the president of the republic to draw conclusions, he who put his presidential credit on the line in this vote in making it a referendum on his policies and even his personality,” Le Pen said.
Le Pen’s National Rally is on track for around 24% of the vote, with president Emmanuel Macron’s centrists trailing with between 22.5% and 23.0%, according to two polls from Ifop-Fiducial and Harris Interactive-Agence Epoka.
However, in official results this morning, it appears Macron and Le Pen’s parties will win 23 seats each.
Meanwhile, the Greens looked set to win 12-12.7%, up from 8.9% in 2014.
The Green’s lead candidate in France, Yannick Jadot, hailed today as a “green wave in which we are the main players”, while Prime Minister Edouard Philippe acknowledged the “message about the ecologic emergency”.
“Everywhere in Europe, our citizens and in particular the youngest are asking us to act with determination and that’s what we’ll do in France and in Europe,” he said.
Germany
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CSU-CDU bloc, led by ally Manfred Weber, is on course to top the vote with around 28%, according to two separate exit polls by national broadcasters ARD and ZDF.
However, the score is eight percentage points off the party’s previous low.
The results are even more disastrous for Merkel’s junior coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party, who polled at around 15.5%.
Meanwhile, the far-right AfD, which had hoped to ride on a wave of nationalism sweeping across Europe, only slightly improved its 2014 score of 7.1% to just over 10%.
The Green party was on course to double its score in Germany from the last EU elections in 2014, polling at around 21%.
“This is a Sunday for Future,” said the Greens’ lead candidate in Germany Sven Giegold, in a nod to the “Fridays for Future” school strikes by students sounding the alarm on the climate crisis.
Belgium
The far-right Flemish nationalist Vlaams Belang made strong gains, partial results showed.
With 15% of the votes counted in all three elections in the Dutch-speaking Flanders region, the party is on course for 18%, around three times their score in the last elections in 2014.
Poland
Exit polls show that the governing right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS) won the elections, outpacing a coalition of opposition liberal parties, according to an exit poll.
The PiS took 42.4% of the vote for 24 of Poland’s 51 seats in the EU parliament, compared with 39.1% and 22 seats for the liberal European Coalition, according to the IPSOS pollsters.
The progressive Spring party took 6.6% for three seats, while 6.1% also went to the far-right Confederation group.
Hungary
Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party was on course for a massive 56% victory, according to a poll conducted yesterday.
The Socialists (MSZP) and the Democratic Coalition (DK) trail behind on 10% each while the far-right Jobbik party is down from 15% to 9%.
Meanwhile, the small liberal Momentum party looks likely to break into the European parliament for the first time with 7%.
With reporting from Stephen McDermott, Seán Murray - © AFP 2019
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Nationalism is now called right wing by the media in Europe. Be very careful when reading mainstream media articles about politics in the EU. I don’t recall nationalism being such a bad thing up until some snowflakes started taking to the airwaves the past few years. Certainly, in Ireland, FF, FG and SF are all nationalist parties.
@BreadBasketCase: hahahaha National Socialism didn’t hurt anyone?
@BreadBasketCase: nationalism we’re familiar with is patriotism and pride in your country. The nationalism we’re seeing is racism, fear-mongering and socialist.
@White Rabbit: the clue was with the “socialism”, the left is a godless mob. The right a prudish elite.
@White Rabbit: I think it’s gone over their head
@BreadBasketCase: https://web.archive.org/web/20170512205649/https://www.fiannafail.ie/speech-by-ff-leader-micheal-martin-at-dail-seanad-session-with-michel-barnier/
“Let there be no doubt about where Ireland stands.
We want nothing to do with a backward-looking idea of sovereignty.
We remain absolutely committed to the ideals of the European Union.”
“It is important for you to understand that Ireland’s approach to Europe and to international commitments is deeply intertwined with our national identity.
Last year we marked 100 years since the most important founding event of our republic. The nationalism of the Rising of 1916 and the Proclamation of Independence is a generous one.”
@White Rabbit: It was bad, but the International variety was no better.
@BreadBasketCase: there are no nationalistic mainstream parties
@White Rabbit: hahaha neither did Stalinism
Millennial hipsters have voted for the greens and they haven’t a clue about anything
@Jonny: the greens are an acceptable alternative to FF&FG BUT DONT GET confused
Local councils have no power just talking shops
Middle Ireland won’t vote for them in a general election
120000 commuting daily into Dublin and 5 euro Litre for diesel not a chance
@Jonny: Don’t panic just yet! The Greens got 5.6% of the national first preference vote.
@Jonny:
They’re prob having a bean salad and soy latte which ingredients have prob flown or shipped in from far afield, then voting green.
@Jonny: I’m 35 so I’m a millennial and I didn’t vote for them so what are you on about?
Macron’s presidential charisma of two years ago has severely diminished. Is there an exit poll for Italy?
@Garreth Byrne: the far right party “Lega” is winning at 32%
@Leo Latorre: They are not ‘far right’? Why is every right wing political organisation labeled that these days
@Headtheball: Parties who support anti-migrant, anti-muslim, anti-LGBT, pro ethnofascist policies are far right. They always have been far right. What do you think the far right is? They don’t all wear swastikas.
@Headtheball:
It’s what the left does, they love their labels and identity politics.
@Candace: labelling is so much easier than thinking
@Ricky Spanish: Not wanting single economic migrant men from Africa in your country does not make you far right. Trust me Ireland would and should have the same stance as this party if you saw the migrants turning up on the shores around the Mediterranean, they were not families. The ideology of Islam has a proven track record of not integrating well in Europe, they are simply stating a fact. This doesn’t mean they hate Muslims! What are their authoritarian policies? Their extreme nationalism? What race are they racist against? How are they anti-lgbt? If you proved some of your accusations I’d consider them far right, otherwise I view them as just right wing.
@Ricky Spanish: since when are Lega Fascist? What an imbecile
@Candace: “it’s what this group I’ve labelled does, they love their labels and identity politics” no sense of irony at all?
A green, right wing European parliament. That should be interesting.
@Sean Murphy: Panzers and Messerschmitts for the 21st century
@Sean Murphy: I don’t know what to make of it haha
@Cathal: Electric pansers
@Cathal: Electric Panzers
Roll on the Green Wave hopefully they can sort out this climate Change Crisis.
@Humphrey Harold Haddington: climate change has been happening for millions of years. Is it really a crisis?
@Centerro: yes, it is a crisis. Climate change has always occurred. The issue is not the climate changing, but the rate at which it is changing, which is far quicker than most lifeforms are able to adapt.
@Centerro: if you got the opinion of 100 doctors would you believe the 1 that had a different opinion from the other 99 that all agree?
What would you call the person that chose to believe that 1 doctor? At the very least you would probably say they aren’t very smart…
@Brian Ó Dálaigh: The idea that natural organisms live in a state of perfect adaptation to their environment is a myth. Twenty thousand years ago, Ireland was covered in ice. When it melted, various species moved in (I guess they were ALL ‘invasive species’) and started living in the fashion they had learned elsewhere.
Sure, adaptation is real – but ecosystems in general are hotchpotches of whatever organisms are present, not finely oiled fragile machines designed to run at a particular temperature, no more and no less. Even with no climatic change, ecosystems often evolve on a timescale much faster than the evolution of the creatures in them.
@Brian Ó Dálaigh:
Long term climate change predictive models have never worked and they never will.
@Centerro: of course it’s a crises. You can deny the science and disagree with the 95%+ of scientists who say its man made, but you cant deny it’s happening and you cant deny there will be catrosphic consequences, some of which we are seeing already.
@Gerry Quinn: I’m nut sure you pulled that load of garbage from (Flat Earth website maybe) But yes ecosystems are fragile, complex machines that HAVE EVOLVED (not designed as you say) to exist within very narrow parameter ranges. Temperature being one of the more important. You mention animals that “came to Ireland when the ice melted” but fail to mention the ones that didn’t do so well after the ice retreated. The Irish Elk (actually a deer) being one of the more well known examples.
You say “ecosystems often evolve on a timescale much faster than the evolution of the creatures in them”
And this is one thing is the most significant driving factor in the extinction of species within an ecosystem. Habitat change and destruction
@Candace:
Sorry to point out the obvious, but how do you know long term predictive climate models don’t work – we haven’t been around long enough!
@Gerry Quinn:
Species adaptation takes time. The whole point is that they can adapt to a gradually changing climate but not a rapidly changing one.
@Gerry Quinn: End Ice Age climate change and human activity (hunting) caused the extinction of at least 160 large spices of mammals, including the Mammoth, the Giant Elk, the Dire Wolf, Cave Bear, Wolly rhino, various species of Saber toothed cats, African Wild Cattle Pelorovis and at least two subspecies of humans, the Neanderthals and Devinsovans.
I really hate it when someone claims climate change is harmless and uses the end of the ice age as an example, forgetting it caused a severe worldwide extinction event.
@Humphrey Harold Hasick and tired hearing about climate change, the climate has been changing for thousands of years, chill out friend, if God wants the climate to change it will change.
@Jimmy Carroll:
It has indeed been changing for millennia, but the best evidence we have is that it’s never been changing as fast as it is now.
@Jimmy Carroll: lol. God. Good one. I suppose the world is flat too?
@Brian Ó Dálaigh: which lifeforms are unable to adapt?
Farage doesn’t matter, the uk are gone but LePen & Salvini are in countries central to the EU project. Concerns raised by their voters will be ignored at Europe’s peril.
@Thewestisbest:
“There is no far right here, only the politics of common sense, the real extremeists here are Merkel, Macron, Junker and Soros – elites who betrayed Europe in the name of money, multinationals & uncontrolled immigration” – Matteo Salvini
Everyone left of the polarised left is far right! Remember that!
So people are getting sick of the plutocracy, lobbying and pals of pal bankers within the EU? The EU is run by the Troika, especially the IMF…
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/future-europe-initiative/about-the-center
Go visit LAKE VICTORIA.
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