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THE SITUATION WITH Covid-19 continues to deteriorate in many parts of the world, but it is Europe that is bearing the brunt as it copes with a second wave of the disease.
The World Health Organization’s Dr Michael Ryan said earlier this week that the continent is again an “epicentre” for Covid-19 as, like Ireland, countries begin to introduce tougher new restrictions including lockdowns.
And, like Ireland, much of the commentary is on hospital capacity and the demands that will be placed on health services into the winter as case numbers rise significantly.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen described the situation yesterday as “very serious” and suggested that “[national] exit strategies were partly too fast and measures were relaxed too soon” over the summer months.
According to the Health Protection and Surveillance Centre, Ireland’s 14-day incidence rate stands at 299.0 following last night’s latest Covid-19 figures. Our deaths per 100,000 people – as per figures from the ECDC – is 1.12.
14-day incidence per 100,000 - 626.2
14-day deaths per 100,000 – 3.74
In the past two weeks alone, France has recorded over 419,000 new Covid-19 cases. That means that roughly one third of all coronavirus cases in France during the pandemic have come in the past fourteen days.
The number of daily deaths in France has not eclipsed the daily deaths seen in April, but has also risen significantly in recent weeks.
Efforts to limit the spread of the virus – such as a 9pm curfew – have been ineffective at preventing the huge surge with almost half of the country’s intensive care beds now full.
The deteriorating situation has surpassed “even the most pessimistic projections”, President Emmanuel Macron said yesterday as he announced a new lockdown for the country.
Starting tonight, bars, restaurants and non-essential businesses will be forced to close, and written statements will be required for people to leave their homes.
Factories and farms will also be allowed to operate, and some public services will function, to limit the economic damage that would come from shutting down the country completely.
And, in an important difference from the first lockdown, schools will remain open.
“As elsewhere in Europe, we are overwhelmed by a second wave that will probably be more difficult and deadly than the first,” Macron said yesterday.
“If we did nothing… within a few months we would have at least 400,000 additional deaths,” he said.
Already more than 3,000 intensive care patients are forcing hospitals to scramble for beds, and “no matter what we do, nearly 9,000 people will be in intensive care by mid-November,” he warned.
The lockdown is set to last until 1 December – like in Ireland – but the French President added a hopeful caveat in his announcement yesterday.
“If in two weeks, we have the situation under better control, we will be able to re-evaluate things and hopefully open some businesses, in particular for the Christmas holiday,” he said.
“I hope we’ll be able to celebrate Christmas and the New Year with family,” he said.
14-day incidence per 100,000 - 148.18
14-day deaths per 100,000 – 0.57
In the early heights of the pandemic, the number of daily cases in Germany did not exceed 10,000. Now, it regularly exceeds this number.
The tally hit a new 24-hour record of 14,964 yesterday, according to data from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for disease control. The number of new cases had doubled yesterday from a week ago, while the number of people in intensive care has also doubled in the last 10 days.
The number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care in Germany was just under 400 in early October, but was at 1,570 by yesterday.
Health Minister Jens Spahn, who is working from home after testing positive for the virus, said urgent action was required.
“If we wait until the intensive care beds are full, then it will be too late,” he told regional broadcaster Suedwestrundfunk.
And Chancellor Angela Merkel has taken action, yesterday announcing a new round of shutdowns for the cultural and leisure as well as food and drink sectors.
The tough restrictions to come into force from Monday 2 November to the end of the month will limit contact outdoors to people from two households.
Schools, daycare centres and shops will remain open, but hotel stays will be allowed only for “necessary and expressedly non-tourism purposes”.
Bars, cafes and restaurants must shut, although takeaways and delivery services can continue.
Professional sports, including Bundesliga football, have also been pushed back behind closed doors.
Theatres, operas and cinemas will also have to scrap their shows during what is traditionally their busiest season.
Merkel acknowledged that the measures are “strict and arduous” but she urged a “national effort”.
At the the current rate of new infections, “we will reach the limits of the health system,” she warned.
14-day incidence per 100,000 - 1,208.26
14-day deaths per 100,000 – 6.22
The situation has gotten very bad, very quickly in Belgium.
Belgium, with 11.5 million inhabitants, is now the country with the most cases per capita in the world – if microstates such as Andorra are excluded.
The number of people admitted to hospital with the coronavirus has all but matched the level in the first wave of the epidemic in spring, the latest figures have shown.
The situation has gotten so bad in Belgium that Covid-positive doctors have been asked to keep working. Over one in five people tested are confirmed to have Covid-19.
The government’s Covid-19 spokesperson said earlier this week that the case numbers may actually decrease – even though deaths and hospitalisations are set to increase – “since we no longer test asymptomatic people”.
Spokesperson Yves Van Laethem said on Monday: “Within 4 days, by the end of the week, we should pass the milestone of 1,000 patients in intensive care. Without changing the curve of our behaviour, we should reach 2,000 patients in intensive care in two weeks, i.e. our maximum capacity.”
NEW: Belgium could reach maximum intensive care capacity by next Friday if current rate continues
— Darren McCaffrey (@DarrenEuronews) October 29, 2020
Currently 911 #coronavirus patients in ICU but it has been doubling every 8 days
Reports one of wealthiest countries in Europe may have to rely on international help to cope
The country has already reimposed a partial lockdown: Bars and restaurants have been closed since 19 October, there are regional overnight curfews and gatherings of more than four people are banned.
The government will meet again tomorrow, and Prime Minister Alexander de Croo could announce more stringent measures after talking to health experts.
14-day incidence per 100,000 - 1,208.26
14-day deaths per 100,000 – 6.22
The situation in Czech Republic has seen it among the worst-affected countries across the European Union for a number of weeks.
The country of 10.7 million people has registered more than 260,000 cases and over 2,300 deaths since the March outbreak.
Its health minister Roman Prymula – who is now out of a job after being caught violating restrictions – said on Monday that they “are getting close to levels that threaten the capacity of the Czech health system”.
He also said that recent restrictions have had a “negligible impact”, as theatres, museums and galleries were shut at the start of the month and mandatory wearing of face masks indoors was implemented.
When announcing new measures last week, Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis said: “What happened was somehow predicted but nobody expected its scope… we have no time to wait.”
He also grimly predicted that the country’s system would “collapse” between 7-11 November if no action was taken.
An overnight curfew is in effect in the country and the army has built a reserve field hospital with 500 beds. Bars and restaurants are shut, while schools are limited to distance learning.
A decision is expected next week on whether to extend these lockdown measures.
14-day incidence per 100,000 - 668.89
14-day deaths per 100,000 – 2.77
Two weeks ago, the Netherlands introduced a partial lockdown to try to stem a sharp rise in cases, including the closure of bars, cafes and restaurants. It has not managed to stem the rise in infections.
Daily cases have now begun to eclipse 10,000 and the Prime Minister Mark Rutte said on Tuesday it was unlikely that these current restrictions would be lifted before December.
Rutte has said, however, it may be too early to gauge whether the partial lockdown has worked.
But he has left the door open for another fuller lockdown, with a press conference due next Tuesday.
“The numbers remain high and have to go down,” he said.
Poland is faring particularly badly in recent weeks, with record new cases and tougher measures introduced last weekend including the shutting of cafes and restaurants, and online learning for most students.
In Portugal, a local lockdown is in place in the northern region set to last until 2 November. The government has also voted to make masks compulsory in outdoor spaces in the country while alcohol cannot be sold after 8pm.
Until the new year, sales of alcohol are also restricted in Denmark after 10pm while bars, restaurants and clubs must close by the same time.
In Greece, a night-time curfew is in place in the capital Athens and the surrounding areas. Masks must be worn outdoors and in public indoor settings.
Most countries in Europe, even those faring better than others such as Norway are introducing tighter restrictions.
In Sweden, the country that opted not to go into lockdown in the spring is sticking to its guns – mostly.
What it is doing is introducing targeted measures aimed at curbing the spread with residents in the Uppsala region told to avoid public transport and not meet people outside their household for a period of two weeks. People are also asked to avoid meetings and cultural events, while steering clear of indoor spaces where possible.
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Coinciding neatly and consistently with back to school, but sure, that’s just a coincidence. Right.
@Dog Eat Fog: a lot of the schools in Europe reopened in May and were open for some of the summer months. What you’re implying doesn’t stack up. It actually points to it being another cause.
@Dog Eat Fog: also coinciding with winter and flu season where an increase in all types of coronavirus’ are expected.
@Dog Eat Fog: The rate of increase in cases in Ireland from 15th of July to 15th of October was steady, with no spike post September opening of schools.
@Dog Eat Fog: Are you a poor teacher looking for a bit more time off?!!
@Darren Byrne:
“A lot of schools in Europe reopened in May” are weasel words.
I have lived in UK, Germany, Spain and Romania and I have travelled in at least other 10 European countries, so I have a pretty good idea when the school starts and ends.
What YOU’re implying doesn’t stack up!
@Stan Papusa: schools indeed reopened in May in the likes of France, Germany, Denmark, Belgium, Greece,Austria.
@ForrestG45: that still doesn’t imply the vast majority of schools on the continent stayed open throughout the summer.
Just as it doesn’t imply they didn’t reopen in the fall.
@NotMyIreland: what are you talking about?
On the first day of September Ireland had 3889 active cases.
On the last day of September it had 10990 active cases, high than the first wave except for the April 14 – April 20 period…
@Darren Byrne:
You’re welcome to believe what you want, that’s fine. :)
There is one event across these nations that took place end of August beginning September, which could see an effect on Covid-19 spread a couple of weeks later – back to school.
But sure, maybe there’s another Europe wide event during this time that would affect mainly individuals in parental age, just when schools are back.
Personally, I don’t think so.
@The Upside-down Triangle:
Sure, but that has nothing to do with Covid-19.
@Stan Papusa: he’s talking about the growth rate, which remained stable through most of that period and leads to much higher daily cases as it progresses. It was a fairly steady tripling each month, this did accelerate in the final weeks
after nphets first level 5 recommendation though. The initial level 5 was recommended based on the same compounding growth rate that we had from July to August to September, just that the level of cases from this compound growth rate was projected to be heading towards a critical mass.
@NotMyIreland:
I, along with reporting data, strongly disagree:
@Donal Hogan:
No, I’m not a teacher. I’m a parent looking for my child and my family to be safe, but thanks for asking.
@Stan Papusa: So you’re aware that in the UK schools only close for August. Germany only close for 6 weeks, France close mid July. Spain the end of of June. Imagine been so ignorant of something as to not even check it before making a statement like that and using phrases such as weasel words
@Dog Eat Fog: the schools reopening actually did have something to do with it. Many schools organised communions and confirmations that had been postponed. People had parties for these and the HSE has tracked outbreaks back to these. Also some of the end season celebrations of gaa teams have been another identifiable sources of major outbreaks
@Darren Byrne: “imagine been so ignorant”…
Aside from the fact that it should be “being” or “having been” (always love correcting natives) I guess it takes one to know one :)
Again, more weasel words. Go and check how many countries fully opened all schools immediately following the end of the quarantine. I’m talking about resuming teaching activities in the manner they are carried out now: full attendance, no shifts, etc.
@Darren Byrne: Yes Darren. The Flu.
@Donal Hogan: I’m a teacher and not one member of staff wants the school to close. The narrative against teachers in this country is shocking. It is exhausting work. We are scared but doing our utmost to make schools safe and education a priority. I’m sorry if you didn’t like school or had some bad teachers but stop with the ‘teachers don’t want to work’ bull. It’s made up in your head and not at all factual.
@Donal Hogan: Teachers did not get “time off” they worked from home,
@Stan Papusa: oh no an auto correct I didn’t spot. That undermines my whole argument which can’t possibly stack up against some who is so knowledgeable from having travelled to more than ten, TEN countries. Tell me why were you so interested as to whether kids were in school or not while travelling abroad.
@Darren Byrne: “Tell me why were you so interested as to whether kids were in school or not while travelling abroad”
Wow… sinking to a new low! I assume you think this is funny?
It has nothing to do with any particular interest. When travelling and living abroad you simply learn how other people live.
“oh no an auto correct I didn’t spot. That undermines my whole argument”
No, what undermines your argument is your logic and (partially) false statements. “a lot of the schools in Europe reopened in May” doesn’t imply all schools stayed open throughout the summer with full attendance. If that were the case, then one could argue that the surge of cases since September has nothing to do with schools.
@Stan Papusa: the precentage rate of increase from the 15th July to 15th August was 295% from September 15th to October 15th it was 330%. So about a 10% increase, which considering the amount of people attending schools isn’t a massive surge
@Stan Papusa: I was trying to find out if you were a teacher. I’m not sure what you inferred from it.
Now go read my original comment and read the bit that says “some of the summer months” then go have a look in the mirror at the person so quick to hastily imply others were lying because they were more interested in insulting someone then reading things properly.
@Sorcha Hackett: I can only judge by our child’s school, but back in mid March when we had to pick up our son and all his schoolbooks that afternoon – four days later school was back in full swing, online, with roll calls at the start of each class, exercises and tests (even gym (the ruckus upstairs…)), as if the school had never closed. The school, staff and, primarily, teachers did a tremendous job continuing the kids’ education, despite the fairly desperate circumstances. Mind blowing. Every parent I’ve spoken with to date share this view. Also at this stage where schools have reopened despite seemingly unknown health risks for all involved, teachers keep doing what’s being asked of them. It’s remarkable and highly appreciated. (…while I’d prefer online edu until we have a vaccine)
@Darren Byrne: I read that bit the first time.
Just because some schools reopened in May, and some even stayed open during summer (Switzerland is another example), it doesn’t mean school reopening in the fall isn’t the cause.
The key difference isn’t the wording (closing, opening, reopening, or whatnot), it’s attendance.
I don’t think anybody suggests – and has data to back it up – that the level of attendance now is the same it was in July and August.
@The Upside-down Triangle: Very few flu cases have been notified this flu season, none in Ireland so far.
@Tommy Roche: would you mask up and social distance for the rest of our lives if meant no more dangerous respiratory viruses? No more flu. No more Covid.
@NotMyIreland: The 10% increase you’re talking about doesn’t paint the full picture.
The same (or similar) percentage of a larger number, is a larger amount.
The lowest number of active cases since the first lockdown was recorded on Jun 24th, i.e. 309 active cases. Between then and 1st of September the number of active cases increased by 3580.
Between 1st of September and yesterday the number of active cases increased by 30285!
This in spite of the fact that restrictions have been reintroduced on almost every aspect of our lives, except for schools and work.
@Stan Papusa: precentages are used for tracking growth though. Active cases are different as some people are an active case differ in duration. The growth rate though appears to have been relatively stable (+10%) between the period pre and post schools opening
As of yesterday, France’s 7-day rolling average was 237 deaths a day, which is equivalent to 16 deaths a day in Ireland. Spain’s was 156, which is equivalent to 17 deaths a day in Ireland. The UK’s was 200, which is equivalent to 14 deaths a day. What’s more, the death rate is increasing in all three, which has caused all of them, along with the rest of Europe, to either impose a lockdown or gradually move towards one.
If you’re opposed to a lockdown in Ireland then you need to admit that you’re okay with dozens of deaths a day, along with an overstretched health service. As every country in Europe has shown, there’s no magical third option Ireland can take, one where people can travel freely, businesses can stay open and students can attend college, all while experiencing no excess mortality. Also, you can’t have thousands of cases a day week-after-week and expect the elderly and the sick not to get infected. As public health experts say, there would be too many ‘points of entry’ – they would eventually get it.
So you can either be for a lockdown, and put lives over livelihoods OR you can be against a lockdown, and put livelihoods over lives. You have to choose the least bad option – there is no other one available.
And as for those ‘But what about Sweden’ lot, the Swedes reported 1,980 cases on Tuesday. The Tuesday before it was 1,292, so they’re headed towards another calamity, following on from the one in spring when, according to Sweden’s leading economist Lars Calmfors, they sacrificed 5,000 lives to gain (or not lose) $5.6 billion (the Swedish economy still shrank by 8.6% between April and June).
@CR Jackson: Well said. Thank you for providing an actual reasoned opinion which is quite scarce in the comments section.
@CR Jackson: absolutely correct. It’s a tragic tale and with them now implementing more lockdown measures in Stockholm it looks like the penny is finally dropping that sacrificing your vulnerable people by not locking down is too high a price to pay for what is a contracting economy anyway.
@CR Jackson: Many thanks for this. Well worth robbing if you don’t mind.
@CR Jackson: Have you seen the WHO video where they reported almost zero flu cases in the southern hemisphere? 98%decrease..Strange that, isnt it.. In other words, these cases are a mix of flu, covid and every other death of anyone over 80..
@roger young: Chile is in the Southern Hemisphere. On May 3 the weekly excess mortality was 5% above the average (based on weekly mortality figures from 2015-2019). By May 24 it was 35% above average and by June 7 it was 69% above average. Or to put it another way, 3,896 Chileans died in the week ending June 7 2020 while 2,323 died in week ending June 7 2019.
So, if you don’t believe that Covid is that bad, how do you explain the fact that 1,673 more Chileans died in the week ending June 7 2020 than in the week ending June 7 2019.
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
It did not drop below 10% until August 16.
Why is Sweden’s 14-day case incidence and 14-day deaths per 100,000 not mentioned?
@Newto2016: probably because it is so low and therefore doesn’t fit with the political narrative that turning us into North Korea is the only option available
@Newto2016: their number of cases has doubled in the last 3 weeks. No big impact on deaths yet but they are seeing an increase in hospital and ICU cases which have led to restrictions imposed in some regions. It looks like they are 3 weeks behind the rest of Europe but are following similar trends.
@Rory Mackle: That’s an absolutely magnificent exaggeration, if be impressed if it wasn’t so ill-informed.
@Rory Mackle: Why don’t yous tell us what it is, lads??
@OnlyHereForTheComments: as of today it is 117 for the record
@Rory Mackle: And their deaths per 100,000 in the last 14 days is at 0.3
@Rory Mackle: and their 14 day deaths per 100000 is 0.6
@Newto2016: You can look the numbers up for yourself:
https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/se
No increase in deaths since the Summer
Averaging 15-20 deaths PER WEEK
Excess deaths currently in the negative
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
@Anna Anna: Sorry, 0.3 was the figure I found but I bow to your superior knowledge :)
@Newto2016: would you know why they have nearly 3 more daily cases per 100,000 than Finland and Norway?
Lessons from Sweden: where can older adults shelter from Covid 19 – The Lancet https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanhl/article/PIIS2666-7568(20)30035-0/fulltext
@Anna Anna: a month ago you were lauding Belgium’s strategy and the fact they relaxed some of the restrictions. Looks like it did not turn out too well.
@ForrestG45: My point is more that the figures (which are much lower than all countries for which the figures are given) are omitted from this article and this is in line with the blatant bias shown by the journal and other media. Give us the objective facts!
@Newto2016: 0.6 was actually the 7 day average, so I’d say your 0.3 is right for the 14 average :)
@Newto2016: they did not give the numbers for Poland or Portugal either, with cases and death numbers much worse than Ireland for example. Stop seeing conspiracies everywhere.
@Anna Anna:
The Swedish COVID-19 Response Is a Disaster. It Shouldn’t Be a Model for the Rest of the World
@ForrestG45: not everyone agrees with that. That’s the problem. The Swedes had the worst ICU capacity in Europe in March but they have worked to increase capacity while avoiding a strict national lockdown.
https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-sweden-now-a-coronavirus-success-story-2141207/
@Anna Anna:
Lot of people disagree with that, Anna.
https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/
And Sweden has enacted much more severe restrictions since.
And they it a record high 1,980 daily infections 2 days ago.
@Anna Anna: Just look at the amount of Covid death’s in Sweden and take a quiet moment from posting stats.
@Rory Mackle: we’ll be turned into North Korea, but we’ll live. People will have to wear masks and social distance for the rest of our lives, because the biggest part of society decided that we should be immortal and that death is not natural anyway, so we have to fight it. Adapt or die. So, the lockdowns work, they definitely do. Staying in a bubble will keep us safe. How far are we willing to go to live a long time? Life expectancy in the 50′s was much lower, but people were more positive and tolerated harsdship and disease better. Now we can all live to 90, but have miserable lives.
@Brinster: no, they are considering using localised lockdowns if needed in Stockholm but nothing has been brought in. Those localised restrictions could be put in place in a part of the city or even just a particular office block as confirmed by Anders Tegnell (hardly severe). Sweden have actually relaxed their restrictions and are now advising the elderly not to keep themselves cocooned, that it is safe to go out to shops etc. And the 1980 cases is not a record high. It is the highest number of cases they have had since June. Also you just used the same link the previous poster did above you do my response is the same.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54643070
SWEDENS ISOLATED ELDERLY URGED TO REJOIN SOCIETY
@Anna Anna: extract below from the Lancet link you posted: ‘The passive stance taken in Sweden to avoid a generalised lockdown resulted in increased deaths, not only in care homes, but also among community-dwelling older adults.’ Thanks for confirming what most people think about the Swedish disaster.
@Daniel Kelly: I think the most important point about the disastrous Swedish herd immunity approach is how their figures stack up against their Nordic neighbours.
Fatalities per 1m
Sweden 586
Denmark 123
Finland 64
Norway 52
@GrumpyAulFella: and how does Ireland’s death rate stack up against Sweden? 383. So, we did much worse and we ate fish.
@Anna Anna: you’re hitting walls, fighting a losing battle. The mob will never accept any counter-arguments. They’ve made up their minds. They are right and you are wrong.
@Jerry Jeff Gomgat: well Sweden has had 3 times as many deaths as us and as we continue to suppress the virus, and Sweden don’t, that gap will continue to grow. They’re only testing at a fraction of the rate that we are also. The real comparison here is with their Nordic neighbours and Sweden has been a tragedy in that regard.
@Jerry Jeff Gomgat: What ? How did we do much worse ? Sweden: 586 deaths per million. Ireland: 383 deaths per million. Put another way, Sweden has 2x the population of Ireland yet over 3x the number of Covid deaths compared to Ireland.
@Tommy Roche: we did worse than Denmark, Finland and Norway I meant.
@Jerry Jeff Gomgat: true Jerry. I don’t waste too much time on the commenters that use false comparisons. They’ll only come round to the idea of a Swedish approach when the Journal and RTE give an accurate portrayal of what’s happening over there. I won’t hold my breath
@Anna Anna: that will never happen.
@GrumpyAulFella: why do you insist in comparing Sweden to the other Nordic countries? Ah yes, because it allows the numbers to support your narratives.
If you look at the correlation between severity of lockdowns and number of cases you will see that there is none. That is, lockdowns are pointless. They are a big exercise in collective penance. We could just as well pray for the virus to disappear
(I know cases are not a good indicator of the severity of the contagion, it should be deaths or hospitalisations, unfortunately I could not find a graph showing lockdowns vs deaths)
@Newto2016: Sweden’s latest official reports seem to be dated 23rd Oct and reference 12th – 18th Oct – so maybe the stats are not available officially..
Last I saw Sweden changed the reporting system so they do not update daily. Also the number of tests is about 1/2 that of the Irish when population is considered. A lot of contact tracing is asking an infected person to contact their close contacts and explain to them what is needed. Close contacts are not tested unless they choose and present with symptoms.
12-18th Oct – Sweden 148,267 tests for 10,000,000 -> 5782 cases
12-18th Oct – Ireland 111,732 tests for 5,000,000 -> 8125 cases
Sweden’s positive rate on the 18th Oct was the same as Ireland’s on the 6th Oct. 3.9%
Sweden system causes delays reporting which might explain why the up to date figures are not included. Sorry to spoil the conspiracy theorists who commended without looking for facts
@Anna Anna: Actually the Swedish government has introduced new recommendations which include
“If possible, avoid having physical contact with people other than those you live with. This means, among other things, a dissuasion from arranging or participating in a party or similar social gathering.”
Also note that they say “there may be situations where it is difficult to avoid congestion and close contact for a long time. There, mouth guards can be of value.”
@Giovanni Giusti:
U said: “@GrumpyAulFella: why do you insist in comparing Sweden to the other Nordic countries? Ah yes, because it allows the numbers to support your narratives”
I can’t understand if you are serious. Of course compare countries who are culturally similar and geographically close.
Anyone doing otherwise is looking to create false comparisons and the facts support that Sweden did noticeably worse than their neighbours.
There’s is no conspiracy here, it’s plan as day facts.
Whether you support lockdowns, wear a mask, or walk naked in the park, these numbers do not lie and Sweden’s approach has been shown, clear as day, to have cost lives.
@Giovanni Giusti: Nothing to do with supporting narratives. Societally Sweden and their Scandinavian neighbours have a lot in common, with regards population density, single occupancy homes, socially etc. This makes them the best comparative measure of success, when we’re trying to establish the efficacy of lockdowns. If we try compare Sweden to, for example, Spain – which would be considered considerably more social and interactive than any of the Nordic countries – we’re not comparing similar things. It’s not perfect, but it is more reflective.
Ireland has a social culture often revolving around large families and gatherings focussed around a number of small, centralised locations (e.g pubs). To compare this to Sweden, where people would have a significantly lower number of contacts if no restrictions were imposed anyway, would be silly. With no restrictions in either country Sweden would have considerably lower infection rates than Ireland, due to the already lower number of social contacts.
@Jakim Berndsen: glad you answered that as I actually thought it was supposed to be sarcastic. “Lockdowns are pointless” and “Why compare Sweden to other Nordic countries”. I’ve given up on the deniers as simple facts seem to mean nothing. Devastation across Europe in countries that didn’t lockdown decisively, but now are, is not proof enough. Almost every country has adopted a different approach to Sweden and Sweden’s fatality count per 1m is one of the highest in the world and still with a contracting economy. Yet Sweden have it all right the deniers tell us. Baffling.
@ForrestG45: Following simialr trends without the mass scaremongering, lockdowns and panic??? Interesting
@GrumpyAulFella: Sweden’s fatality count is not actually “one of the highest in the world” when you look at excess deaths. Yes they are higher than previous years’ average but if you compare them with other European countries that did strict lockdowns, they aren’t. Check Euromomo for numbers.
Ireland is the only country on there that’s goolinf down. Our early lockdown is working.
@Jerry Jeff Gomgat: Level 3 was working. The drop in numbers we are seeing relate to restrictions put in place 2 weeks ago.
@Donal Hogan: Dublin were in level three longer than any other county but the numbers were still increasing.
@Donal Hogan: yeo Level 3 was working and Level 5 will work better.
What appeared to work in Ireland was the ban on household visits. Not saying this will work everywhere as societies differ. Our level 3 restrictions, like closing bars and restaurants, had no real impact until that ban came it. As health officials say level 3 stabilised things here, but that measure seems to be what has started driving numbers down.
@NotMyIreland: I agree, and this is consistent with the fact that contact tracing and outbreak management show that, for example, a few weeks ago 352 of all 522 outbreaks were in private homes. The last weekly report (24/10/2020) shows 521 of the 680 outbreaks are in private homes.
@Niall Ó Cofaigh: yes it would appear that other measures could be rolled back somewhat if this measure was kept in place. Especially as its obvious homes are the area where people are most likely to become a close contact. However its one of the tougher measures on society though and probably the hardest to enforce.
Yes these are dire circumstances, but the fact remains that only 6 countries in the world have more restrictive measures than Ireland, and those that do aren’t beating us by a large margin:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-stringency-index?time=2020-10-24
Nearly all of those countries are developing countries or totalitarian regimes or both…
If there’s anything to be learned from the likes of New Zealand, South Korea, Japan, Iceland, Norway is that you don’t win this by just militarizing the country, beating up demonstrators and telling people to wash their hands.
So according to Macron France would have over 400,000 additional deaths within a few months if they did nothing? I do think it’s important they act now but I just don’t believe that number
@Kevin McNally: that number would be a worst case scenario out of a population of 60 million it is possible if they do nothing….. by doing something it would reduce that estimate…
Anything to be said for having a mass?
@Bryan Mc Mahon: a zoom mass will be grand
Maybe someone who understands data visualisation better can correct me, but from what I can see in this chart, there is no obvious correlation between lockdown stringency and case growth:
@Giovanni Giusti: thanks for the link… interesting… a few things that I notice Dominica with a lockdown score of 30 has a growth rate in excess of 500% Bangladesh with a lockdown score of 80 has a growth rate of less than 5%. There is a trend but a marginal one across the graph. Ireland with a lockdown score of 80 has a growth rate of 50%
However, we are only at 80 for a week so I would expect us to see the 2 weekly growth rate fall when looked at in 10 days time. Also there is no account on compliance. So these need to be factored in. Be interesting to revisit.
The figure that leaped out at me from this article is the number of ICU beds Belgium has compared to Ireland. they have approx 1 ICU bed for every 5500 citizens, we have approx 1 per 16600 citizens.
Who planted or brought in the second wave ??
@Dolphins: ourselves
@Dolphins: those house parties and hoards having a deadly time with their mad craic gatherings around the towns and cities……oh and those anti mask marches.
A bad flu season in Ireland causes a 1000 deaths. Covid so far almost double that amount. Dangerous virus indeed. Why is it okay thay a 1000 people (including very young children, which is not the case with Covid) die in a bad flu year? Why is that acceptable? Why don’t we lockdown and fear masks every flu season? And this is with a vaccine, and we still have 1000 people die in a bad year. If we have a Covid vaccine and half the amount of people who are dying now die then, why is that okay, if Covid deaths can be brought down to the same level of flu deaths, why do we accept that? There is no flu so far this year. So less people dying than usual. Why don’t we lockdown and wear masks forever? Why is it okay to let children die from flu??
@Jerry Jeff Gomgat: I think the difference is the vaccine. With a vaccine people can protect and feel protected. Health care workers for example as well as those at risk and vulnerable.
However I read that “Last year, 53% of hospital staff and 42% of long term care facility staff got the jab, up from 34% and 27% respectively in 2016″ (dated Oct 2019)
The same article says “that 68.5% of people aged 65 and over who had a medical card or GP visit card received the flu vaccine during the 2018-2019 flu season,”
It would be interesting to see how many flu deaths were of people who did and did not choose to receive a vaccine. We must do our best and when people have the flu they isolated in hospitals to prevent spread. Also it is thought hat covid-19 could be anything up to 4 times as contagious (as in 4 times easier to transmit an infection) than the flu.
There is overwhelming evidence from the USA that “for example, during 2018-2019, flu vaccination prevented an estimated 4.4 million influenza illnesses, 2.3 million influenza-associated medical visits, 58,000 influenza-associated hospitalizations, and 3,500 influenza-associated death” and “that flu vaccine reduced children’s risk of flu-related pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission by 74% during flu seasons from 2010-2012″
“fhttps://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm
In many ways the question must be asked as to why people do not vaccinate against the flu as those figures are as good an argument as any for flu vaccines
@Niall Ó Cofaigh: I personally think we should mask up in flu season too.
Portugal is NOT in lockdown. There will be a nationwide domestic travel ban during the weekend but all business and restaurants will remain open.
On the bright side, there will be no flu this year, amazing!! WHO reported a 98% decrease in flu in the southern hemisphere this year, unexplainable they said..
why are comments disabled on other articles?
https://www.thejournal.ie/two-people-dead-knife-attack-nice-france-5247973-Oct2020/#comments
@Stephen Nix: see my reply elsewhere to your cut and paste
Lots of comments say level 3 was working and we are seeing results now so bearing this in mind with level 5 we should see an even bigger decrease in numbers and I for one am waiting with great anticipation for this to happen
What the Sats say & we’re is the population from ? Think about who doesn’t follow the Rules?
Poland’s rate is increasing by 2000 a day, or 10% a day, now at 20’000. I actually am working remotely for a Ukrainian company and would feel safer in Ukraine right now. Poland was looking down its nose at Ukraine and Russia not so long ago, now we are worse than both of them combined. People in my building have had it. All you can do is follow basic hygiene and hope you don’t get it.
have your say