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Explainer: What's the latest with Russia-Ukraine tensions and is an invasion likely?

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Ukraine today ahead of talks with Russia on Friday.

featureimage Russian troops PA Images PA Images

US SECRETARY OF State Antony Blinken is visiting Ukraine today to show support before crunch talks with Russia later this week.

With tens of thousands of Russian troops massed on the Ukrainian border, tensions between Moscow and the West have reached a post-Cold War high and there are growing fears of a major conflict in Eastern Europe.

Russia already seized Ukraine’s entire Crimea region in 2014 and backs a large-scale separatist force in the east, but the US and Ukraine fear it is preparing an even larger scale invasion.

Moscow insists it has no plans to invade, but is demanding wide-ranging security guarantees – including a ban on Ukraine ever joining NATO – in exchange for deescalation.

So, how has the situation escalated in recent weeks? Let’s take a look…

What has been happening on Ukraine’s borders?

In recent months, Ukraine and its Western allies have accused Moscow of massing tens of thousands of troops near its border with Ukraine in preparation for an invasion.

Tensions increased yesterday as it was reported that Russia is sending troops from the country’s far east to Belarus for major war games, in a deployment further beefing up Russian military assets near Ukraine amid Western fears of an invasion.

Deputy defence minister Alexander Fomin said the drills are intended to practice a joint response to external threats by the alliance of Russia and Belarus, which have close political, economic and military ties.

He did not say how many troops and weapons are being redeployed for the exercises.

Ukrainian officials have warned that Moscow could launch an attack from various directions, including from the territory of its ally Belarus.

The deployment would dramatically bolster an estimated 100,000 troops with tanks and other heavy weapons amassed near Ukraine in what the West fears could be a prelude to an invasion.

Fomin said the drills, which involve an unspecified number of troops from Russia’s Eastern Military District that encompasses Eastern Siberia and the Far East, reflect the need to practise concentrating the country’s entire military potential in western Russia.

Is an invasion likely?

Moscow’s troop surge follows a similar build-up in the Spring, when the first fears of an invasion emerged but never materialised.

Since 2014, the US and European allies have worked to bolster Ukraine’s military when the country’s armed forces crumpled in the face of Russian pressure. However, there is no appetite for direct military conflict with Russia.

Last Friday, the White House said US intelligence officials have determined a Russian effort is under way to create a pretext for its troops to further invade Ukraine.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the intelligence findings show Russia is also laying the groundwork through a social media disinformation campaign that frames Ukraine as an aggressor that has been preparing an imminent attack against Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine.

washington-united-states-22nd-dec-2021-white-house-press-secretary-jen-psaki-speaking-to-reporters-at-a-press-briefing-in-the-white-house-press-briefing-room-credit-sopa-images-limitedalamy-li White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Psaki charged that Russia has already dispatched operatives trained in urban warfare who could use explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy forces — blaming the acts on Ukraine — if Russian President Vladimir Putin decides he wants to move forward with an invasion.

“We are concerned that the Russian government is preparing for an invasion in Ukraine that may result in widespread human rights violations and war crimes should diplomacy fail to meet their objectives,” Psaki said.

The White House, however, did not provide details about how much confidence it has in the assessment.

Psaki today warned of an “extremely dangerous situation” around Ukraine, saying “no option is off the table” in terms of a US response to an invasion.

Moscow denies it has fresh plans to attack its neighbour.

What exactly does Putin want?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded that NATO halt its expansion and withdraw troops or military equipment from countries neighbouring Russia like Ukraine, but also allies like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

In exchange, Russia would pledge to limit its war games, as well as end aircraft buzzing incidents and other low-level hostilities.

12 countries took part in the founding of NATO in 1949: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the UK and the US.

There are now 30 countries signed up to NATO, with countries near the Ukraine such as Hungary, Poland and Slovakia joining over the years.

The longtime Russian leader accuses the alliance – set up to counter the Soviet Union – of betraying their promise from the end of the Cold War of not expanding eastwards.

Speaking in December, Putin said that letting NATO approach Russia’s borders without reacting would amount to “criminal inaction”.

sochi-russia-7th-dec-2021-russias-president-vladimir-putin-r-is-seen-in-his-office-in-the-bocharov-ruchei-residence-in-sochi-during-a-bilateral-meeting-with-us-president-joe-biden-on-the-scree Russian President Vladimir Putin at the start of virtual bilateral discussions with US President Joe Biden in December Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

And what does the US and NATO have to say?

In a meeting last week, Russia laid out its security demands for easing tensions over Ukraine to the US and NATO.

However, the US and NATO rejected the demands, but left open the possibility of future talks with Moscow to discuss other issues like arms control, missile deployments and ways to prevent military incidents.

Speaking after a meeting of the Nato-Russia Council last Wednesday, US deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman reaffirmed that some of Putin’s security demands “are simply non-starters”.

“We will not slam the door shut on Nato’s open-door policy,” she told reporters after almost four hours of talks at the military organisation’s headquarters in Brussels.

“We are not going to agree that Nato cannot expand any further.”

Speaking yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said there would be no further negotiations until the West responds, in writing, to its demands for sweeping security guarantees.

The Nato-Russia Council was the first meeting of its kind since July 2019. The forum was set up two decades ago but full meetings paused when Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014. It has met only sporadically since.

Where are we at now?

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Kyiv today to show support before crunch talks with Russia later this week.

Speaking at the US embassy after he landed in the Ukrainian capital, Blinken urged Putin to choose the “peaceful path” on Ukraine and to dispel fears he is planning an invasion of his pro-Western neighbour.

“I strongly, strongly hope that we can keep this on a diplomatic and peaceful path, but ultimately, that’s going to be President Putin’s decision,” he said.

Blinken’s arrival in Europe has upped the diplomatic stakes, and after Kyiv he is headed to Berlin for four-way talks with Britain, France and Germany to seek Western unity, and finally to Geneva on Friday for a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

u-s-secretary-of-state-antony-blinken-speaks-in-the-briefing-room-of-the-state-department-in-washington-u-s-january-7-2022-andrew-harnikpool-via-reuters US Secretary of State Antony Blinken Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Speaking at the embassy today, Blinken warned that Russia could easily send more forces towards Ukraine.

“We know that there are plans in place to increase that force even more on very short notice, and that gives President Putin the capacity, also on very short notice, to take further aggressive action against Ukraine,” he said.

A senior US official meanwhile confirmed that the United States had authorised an additional $200 million in security aid to Ukraine, on top of $450 million already delivered by President Joe Biden’s administration.

Blinken also today met with President Volodymyr Zelensky, who thanked Washington for its support, including the increased military assistance.

“We understand that to take steps quickly to modernise the army, we need help, especially in these… difficult times,” Zelensky said.

The conflict in eastern Ukraine has so far left more than 13,000 dead.

Includes reporting by Press Association and © – AFP, 2022

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    Mute alan scott
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    Jan 19th 2022, 3:05 PM

    Looking forward to all the Russian bots putting their misinformation and pro Putin comments.

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    Mute Roy Dowling
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    Jan 19th 2022, 3:14 PM

    @alan scott: Russia, The US and the UK(NATO big guns) are all as bad as each other. America holds military training exercises in Ukraine and nobody reports on it. UK have moved weapons into Ukraine nobody report’s on it. I don’t agree with Russia or NATO. Both looking to start something

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    Mute Des Hanrahan
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    Jan 19th 2022, 3:57 PM

    @alan scott: All you do is troll the Journal attacking anyone who has a different opinion to you as a Russian Bot , Putanista , Boris etc . Making ad hominem attacks means that you cannot deal with their arguments .

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    Mute alan scott
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    Jan 19th 2022, 4:13 PM

    @Des Hanrahan: ok what have I said? Give me examples.

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    Mute Mark Gough
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    Jan 19th 2022, 4:55 PM

    @alan scott: so you don’t like people with different opinions

    33
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    Mute alan scott
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    Jan 19th 2022, 5:12 PM

    @Mark Gough: I do, it’s called debating. I always remain respectful, I never get personal.

    People can disagree or agree, it doesn’t make a difference. I’m far from a troll.

    I’m very opinionated and I’m aware of that.

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    Mute Peter
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    Jan 19th 2022, 5:26 PM

    @Roy Dowling: the uk weapons movement has been reported on each occasion they have happened. Also they are defensive weapons. Nothing than could harm Russia unless they wander into the Ukraine.

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    Mute Roy Dowling
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    Jan 19th 2022, 7:05 PM

    @Peter: Funny I don’t remember anything about UK weapons movement on here or on rte or Virgin news. If I’m wrong feel free to post the links to it.

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    Mute Epgenetics29 Declan Christoph
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    Jan 19th 2022, 7:35 PM

    @Roy Dowling: The EU will give old Putin his gas line to ease tensions around Ukraine invasion. NATO (American Allie’s) have been saber rattling just like the Russians and nothing reported. Pantomime villains the lot…

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    Mute THINK Paddy THINK
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    Jan 20th 2022, 8:26 AM

    @alan scott: you refer to anyone with a pro or mild Russian position as a bot. You don’t understand russian history nor sociology nor its multi layered politics. Nor do you understand what’s happening on the ground in Ukraine and the various cultures there and the divide between political establishment and a huge minority of the population. I CHALLENGE YOU TO DESCRIBE THIS LATTER POINT

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    Mute Peter
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    Jan 20th 2022, 1:06 PM

    @Roy Dowling: try reading other news sites than just rte and the journal, if you want balanced reporting then you need to read articles about the same issue from multiple sources cus they all have a take on it.

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    Mute Tjamr
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    Jan 19th 2022, 4:24 PM

    It’s important to realise that not all Ukrainians look to the West there are a lot of people who would love to have closer links to Russia. This is according to my friends Ukrainian wife.
    This seems contrary to the results of a 2017 poll where 69% of Ukrainians want to join NATO, according to the Democratic Initiatives Foundation.
    I don’t know the Democratic Initiatives Foundation and are polls really an accurate reflection of what the majority of people think, something to consider when looking at news feeds with a Western bias.

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    Mute Diaspora'd
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    Jan 19th 2022, 5:57 PM

    @Tjamr: it seems like Russia is threatened by former soviet countries that seem to thrive when aligned with the west. The standard of living in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania is much higher than Russia. Even measured by GDP (PPP).

    Does Putin worry that Russians see this and might question why and blame him so he distracts by blaming the west and sets up conflicts with these neighboring states?

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    Mute THINK Paddy THINK
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    Jan 20th 2022, 8:36 AM

    @Diaspora’d: the standard of living in the Baltics was much h higher in Soviet times than in Russia. A lot of this high standard was due to soviet policies and economics

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    Mute Niall Ó Cofaigh
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    Jan 19th 2022, 5:14 PM

    So why is the 2014 – 19 former Ukraine president Petro Poroshenko being charged with treason? Is this the West backed president who also appeared in the Panama papers with billions in offshore accounts? There are many factions at play here and not just East versus West. Many in the Ukraine may not wish to be in NATO particularly if the population of the Crimea are taken into consideration. 37% of the total Crimea electorate voted for independent unlike the rest of the Ukraine that voted overwhelmingly in favour of independence (only 60% of the Crimea electorate voted). I do not agree with a Russian invasion but also the posturing of NATO is worrying too. Time for the UN to be involved in international disputes and confine NATO to the cold war trash can.

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    Mute Richard Day
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    Jan 19th 2022, 5:39 PM

    @Niall Ó Cofaigh: Well said. The irony is that potentially the EU/West could be drawn into a Military conflict for a Country whose Leadership and certain right wing aspects of that despise the EU and all what it stands for…..Just need to be careful who we are backing here…..

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    Mute Sean May
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    Jan 19th 2022, 3:49 PM

    This item now has me thinking of Kubrick’s movie “Doctor Strangelove”.

    “Gentlemen, you can’t fight in here! This is the War Room!”

    23
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    Mute Tom Molloy
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    Jan 19th 2022, 4:32 PM

    You can be a Communist in a democratic country but you can’t be a Democrat in a Communist country.

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    Mute George Vladisavljevic
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    Jan 19th 2022, 8:30 PM

    @Tom Molloy: You actually can’t be a Communist in the US but I do believe that Facism is legal. KKK is fine as well.

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    Mute David Jordan
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    Jan 19th 2022, 9:00 PM

    @George Vladisavljevic: Not true. Here’s the website of the Communist Party USA: https://www.cpusa.org/

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    Mute Diaspora'd
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    Jan 19th 2022, 9:06 PM

    @George Vladisavljevic: Actually, there is a Communist Party in the US. They have a party headquarters, national conventions, a party president, they publish and can run candidates in elections in the US.

    https://www.cpusa.org/article/its-time-to-run-candidates-a-call-for-discussion-and-action/

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    Mute George Vladisavljevic
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    Jan 19th 2022, 9:55 PM

    @David Jordan: asorry about that, I was quite sure it was illegal. Appologies

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    Mute THINK Paddy THINK
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    Jan 20th 2022, 8:28 AM

    @Tom Molloy: you can’t be a communist in the US nor in Ukraine. Russia is not a communist country. Get fa to right it is a former member of a communist county the USSR

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    Mute Jim Monaghan
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    Jan 19th 2022, 6:10 PM

    Ukraine has a right to self determination. It position vis a vis Russia is quite similar to Ireland’s vis a vis Britain. Both Ireland and Ukraine were colonies of their much bigger neighbours. That said, who wants a war that could escalate so easily. WW1 broke out over a Serb attack on an Archduke. While respecting Ukraine’s rights, Ireland should advocate talks on all the issue stemming from the fall of the USSR. Thos interested in further information should look at. https://ukrainesolidaritycampaign.org/ On an aside there are a number of Ukrainians in Ireland. I have met some and they are nice people.

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    Mute THINK Paddy THINK
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    Jan 20th 2022, 8:31 AM

    @Jim Monaghan: Jim Ukraine was never a colony of Russia. Back to history for you I am afraid. However, Crimea independence is more analogous to Ireland UK

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    Mute Gerry McCaughey
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    Jan 19th 2022, 4:39 PM

    Really don’t think Putin is daft enough to invade. If he does it shows he’s lost the plot and more dangerous than we thought. It’s likely just posturing. He’ll take a few photos of himself shirtless standing on a tank for his new calendar and pull his troops back slowly.

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    Mute Anton Harris
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    Jan 19th 2022, 5:25 PM

    @Gerry McCaughey: Think you are clueless with a comment like that.

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    Mute Gerry McCaughey
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    Jan 19th 2022, 6:15 PM

    @Anton Harris: go on, what was clueless?

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    Mute Ivan Connolly
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    Jan 19th 2022, 8:53 PM

    @Gerry McCaughey: I think you might be surprised. What’s little appreciated in the west is the actual history of the region. The Ukraine as a country did not exist prior to the 20th century and was prior to that merely a part of Russia. Kiev was in fact at one time the first city of the Russian empire. The name Ukraine comes from the Russian words for borderlands So as gas as Putin and Russia are concerned Ukraine is just another part of Russia and the idea of having NATO and US troops operating out on Russian territory is anathema to them. So you can be pretty sure short of a rewrite of the Ukrainian constitution that guaranteed neutrality and no standing army Russia is going to invade and nobody is going to stop them either.

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    Mute Ryszard Ewiak
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    Jan 19th 2022, 7:58 PM

    Since 1945 Heaven is holding back the wind of the WW3. And so it will be until the appointed time. In the Book of Daniel, we read, “At the appointed time [the king of the north] will return back [it also means the break-up of the EU and NATO. Many countries of the former Eastern block will return to alliance with Russia], and will enter into the south [the detonator will be the ethnic conflict to the south of Russia's borders (Matthew 24:7)], but it will not be as the former [Georgia - 2008] or as the latter [Ukraine], for the dwellers of coastlands of Kittim [the distant Wes] will come against him, and (he) will broke down [mentally], and will go back.” (11:27-30a) This will be a mutual slaughter. This time it will be a world war not only by name. The “great power sword” will also be used. (Revelation 6:4) Jesus characterized him in this way: “A frightening things both and extraordinary (related to unusual phenomena) from sky powerful will be.” (Luke 21:11) Some ancient manuscripts contain the words “and frosts”. The Aramaic Peshitta: “and will be great frosts”. We call this today “nuclear winter”. In Mark 13:8 there are also words of Jesus: “and disorders” (in the sense of confusion and chaos). The Aramaic Peshitta: “and confusion” (on the state of public order). There will be also significant tremors along the length and breadth of the regions [of strategic importance] and famines, and pestilences. Jesus stated: “All these are but the beginning of the birth pains.”

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    Mute Peter
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    Jan 20th 2022, 1:10 PM

    @Ryszard Ewiak: wow, go easy on the coffee next time lad. What a load of …….

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    Mute Peter
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    Jan 20th 2022, 1:11 PM

    @Ryszard Ewiak: wow, go easy on the coffee next time lad. What a load

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    Mute Splat
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    Jan 19th 2022, 5:31 PM

    Putin crying wolf. Hes never going to invade making this much noise, however I wouldn’t bet against him popping off a few rockets though just to make more noise.. a warmonger. That’s his nature unfortunately.

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    Mute Tom Molloy
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    Jan 19th 2022, 6:42 PM

    Oops. Another outbreak is USphobia.

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    Mute Ivan Connolly
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    Jan 20th 2022, 7:44 AM

    @Tom Molloy: the general population of the world have on past experience far more reason to fear the US than they do Russia. I can even make it easy for you to understand. Draw two columns. In one list all the countries that Russia, and the Soviet Union before them if you like, have invaded, bombed or overthrown seated governments and in the other do the same for the US. There is only one country which has sought global military and economic dominance at the expense of incalculable innocent lives and its not Russia. So a fear of the US and their deceptions is perfectly reasonable.

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    Mute THINK Paddy THINK
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    Jan 20th 2022, 8:34 AM

    @Ivan Connolly: Well said. Russia is afraid of US attempts to undermine its stability. Russian mindset is very conscious of 1941 because of the consequences. Germany built forces up in Eastern Europe and then attacked. Putin can be seen to distrust NATO s strategy and is taking precautions and these might be quasi aggressive but not all out war

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    Mute Stephen Gill
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    Jan 20th 2022, 9:05 AM

    @THINK Paddy THINK: You conveniently ignored the fact that Russia was a co-conspirator with Germany 1939-41.

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    Mute THINK Paddy THINK
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    Jan 21st 2022, 9:03 AM

    @Stephen Gill: Not Russia but the USSR and the leaders of the USSR were multi national including Ukrainians and remember what Stalin’s nationality was. You should be precise.

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