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In this series we aim to test the veracity of statements made by politicians and those in the public eye. The goal is purely unbiased, testing only the statements that become accepted as fact, not those that espouse them.
FactCheck is used whenever a statement is made that needs to be tested so as to better the national conversation. If, for example, a political leader said the world was flat, it wouldn’t do the country any good to blithely accept it as true.
Nor does it better our understanding to accept statements designed to obfuscate, to mislead or designed purely to gain political advantage.
That is not to say we will only seek to disprove statements. Every column is be looked at purely on fact.
The statements are awarded a score from 1-10 based on their merit, with 1 being outright false and 10 being 100 per cent verifiable fact.
Of course, some statements go beyond the first line and, where this is the case, we will endeavour to bring you the context of statements.
In light of recent air accidents, some people think that flying has somehow become more dangerous.
The disappearance of MH370, the shooting down of MH17 and the crashing of Air Algerie flight 5017 claimed the lives of 643 people and all received considerable media attention both here and abroad, which has naturally led to some nervous fliers taking this as evidence that they are right.
But do the stats back that up? Are planes falling from the sky? Should we panic?
Firstly, it’s important to note that between the two Malaysia Airlines incidents, there were 45 aeroplane crashes, which between them accounted for 158 casualties.
That is according to the Bureau of Aircraft Accidents Archives, a Swiss body which tracks air accidents. So, despite some getting more attention than others, there are accidents roughly every 2.5 days, based on averages for the last few years.
Roughly one third of those have no fatalities and your personal chances of surviving a crash are 95.7% according to the US National Transportation Safety Board.
It is also important to note that at any one time there is between 8,000 and 13,000 flights in the air and around 90,000 daily flights.
That looks something like this.
Now, given those facts, let’s look at how many crashes there are per year. Given the fact that there is 32 million flights a year, the expectation would be that there might be thousands of crashes every single the year.
The reality?
That’s right. In 2013, you had a 0.0004% chance of being in a plane crash.
These crash statistics, it should be noted, include non-commercial and some military flights. So, if you’re a bad flier chances are you aren’t in the Air Corps or flying a cargo plane, which cuts your chances significantly.
The percentage chance works out as likely as being hit by lightning. Seven times.
The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) says that crashes per million departures have dropped year-on-year.
However, this year’s fatality statistics have already surpassed every year since 2010.
Other factors matter, such as location and airline.
US statistics professor Arnold Barnett found that rich countries tend to have better records, with about a one in 14 million chance of death. In newly industrialised countries, that falls to one in two million and in the developing world, and one in 800,000 in developing nations.
In African airspace, the ICAO says that there is 12.9 accidents per million. Conversely, the Middle East has 1.8, Asia and the Pacific 2.2, Europe 2.7 and the US 2.8.
The Rating
So, while a cluster of incidents is bound to make some people nervous, there is no evidence that 2014 is any more dangerous in terms of crashes. It is, however, more fatal for air travel.
Have an idea for something we should be checking? Email paulhosford@TheJournal.ie or tips@TheJournal.ie.
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very moving documentary and very difficult to watch. just goes to show that how a person is treated as a child stays with them all through life.
Nomination for Nobel Peace Prize. I hope Christina and her siblings schedule re-unions a few times each year. They deserve to have the time to be together without the intrusion of media and cameras. It might help them fill the empty space that they hover over at the moment. Each of the four no doubt have their own separate circles of friends. They need now to be afforded the space to reaffirm that special circle of friends called family.
She has such passion for children.she is an inspiration to us all.it was a compelling programme
I read her book nearly two decades ago and it still haunts me. I couldn’t understand how her work in Vietnam wasn’t more well known but maybe her account of her childhood was probably too raw for a lot of people. She’s been a personal inspiration.
Some people when they’re at their happiest (singing) show real pain .
Wonderful to see how television reached the hearts of the Irish people (the word premiere was held in Dublin last September). And don’t miss the film NOBLE when it comes around again. It would be nice now to have Journalists, Senators and Politicians comment on Christina Noble’s story, in the context of what is happening in Geneva right now, as Ireland faces the United Nations condemnation of our serious lapses with Human Rights at home.
After watching the programme I think Christina has mentally suffered from her years in an institution you can see the hatred in her against the government and the church at the time and I think her way to deal with that is to look after those unfortunate children .one part where I thought she was out of order was when she made a verbal attack on what she thought was a priest ,you know a lot o priests were sickened as to what happened to these kids too there are a lot of good priest out there . .One more thing I want to say ,I was also institutionalised in an industrial school for years just for not going to school and was abused also but like Jesus I have learned to forgive but not forget I always say those abusers will have to face judgement some day but overall I feel so sorry for Christina for the way it has affected her
@ joeythelad, i agree with you , i found it difficult to watch as christina’s pain is very evident and of course well founded. i was also surprised with the response she got in the pub , dont why ? what i find surprising is that many people either dont know that she is irish or dont know anything about her work at all!
i hope herself and her family have the time they need to try and bond and she finds some peace. so glad that you have learned to forgive , i am not so sure i could forgive, all the best
What a great woman
Nice house in Texas as well
denise, did you watch the programme? what has her brothers house in texas got to do with it? such an odd comment for this story!
I know,Denise !
What should we do about it ? Genuine question .
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