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GE2024OopsA €5 BILLION ‘black hole’ has been uncovered in Fine Gael’s spending plan in the party’s manifesto.
The figure is contained in the section of the manifesto which looks at how much Fine Gael would spend over the next five years.
It shows that the party has not allocated enough money to cover its new spending commitments as well as what is estimated to be needed to maintain the existing level of services.
The discovery is an uncomfortable one for the government party, which puts responsible management of the public finances at the centre of its pitch to voters.
“Fine Gael’s figures are sound,” a spokesperson for the party said on Saturday night.
The ‘black hole’ came to light after Trinity economics professor Dr Barra Roantree wrote a piece for his Substack on Thursday evening about the three main parties’ spending plans. This piece was subsequently published on The Journal on Friday morning.
Fine Gael contacted Dr Roantree after the piece was published to clarify some of the information in it – inadvertently revealing in the clarification the existence of the ‘black hole’.
Roantree had contacted Fine Gael before the initial piece was finished but the party had not responded.
The ‘black hole’ is in the party’s plan for current – or day-to-day – voted expenditure between now and 2030.
This is a huge figure which is made up of central government department spending and is approved by a vote of the Dáil each year. Roantree notes that this figure is not a comprehensive one for government spending – it doesn’t include most social welfare expenditure, for example – but it is the best figure available.
“It is the only aggregate measure of spending each of the three largest parties have provided information on,” he said.
Fine Gael says current voted spending will increase by €26.4 billion under a FG government.
However this leaves a gap of €5.5 billion when the party’s new spending commitments (€9.3 billion) are added to what the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (IFAC) says is needed to maintain the existing level of services (€22.6 billion), giving a total of €31.9 billion – significantly more than the €26.4 billion FG has suggested.
“Fine Gael have instead referenced a figure of €15.5 billion for the cost of maintaining the existing level of services alongside €1.7 billion in an unspecified contingency,” Roantree said.
“This simply isn’t credible. We have an independent Fiscal Advisory Council who have clearly and transparently calculated the cost of maintaining the existing level of services. Instead Fine Gael choose to use a figure based on their own – unpublished – workings that is more than €5 billion per year lower.”
Fine Gael insisted that the party’s figures were solid, but did not say why it had avoided using the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council’s calculations for how much money would be needed in the coming years.
“We have provided a sufficient amount of money for public services in the years ahead, based on what was required over the last number of years,” a spokesperson said in a statement.
It noted that the party had made provision for a public sector pay deal, almost €2 billion in contingency funding for unforseen events, and funding for both of the sovereign wealth funds that were set up in recent Budgets.
Roantree’s research also found significant – albeit smaller – gaps in Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin’s spending plans.
He notes that both parties have pencilled in €20 billion per year by 2030 for maintaining existing services, which is significantly less – €2.5 billion per year – than what the IFAC has said will be needed.
“This raises serious questions for the three major parties about the credibility of their spending plans as we enter into very uncharted waters,” Roantree said, suggesting that party manifestos need to be objectively costed and tested.
You don’t need to carefully cost your promises if you don’t plan on keeping them.
@Shane O Neill: true
Is the term black hole allowed in Ireland in 2024
@Shane O Neill: just proof they are all big liars. they did not even bother to do proper calculations. SF Must be roaring with laughter.
@Dominic Leleu: But they and FF did exactly the same.
@Shane O Neill: Our hope and expectations… black holes and revelations..
@087 bed: Dunno about Ireland but the US prefers African American hole.
@087 bed: Dublin to be renamed Calcutta???
Oh deary me. Pearse Doherty will have a field day.
@Louis Jacob: FG are full of the brown stuff. Lies, bull, and false promises.
@Louis Jacob: Wasn’t there a similar problem with FG’s calculations a couple of elections ago. I seem to remember Pearse Doherty taking Michael Noonan to task about this during that election campaign. Just as embarrassing that time too.
@Numinous20111: Yep. I remember him telling Noonan that you could get a calculator for a couple of Euro.
@Tim Brennan: Yawn
@Louis Jacob: donkey Doherty is for laughing at lol
@Brian Keelty: I think you mean the white stuff. As they certainly know how to waste taxpayers money on an unwanted bike shed
@Paul M Doe: tosser
@Louis Jacob: he can’t say too much, the article says SF and FF both have similar albeit smaller gaps.
@Louis Jacob: he pointed out their missing fiscal space in 2016 also. Fine Gael don’t care – they have doubled our debt since they came into power and your kids will be paying it back for generations without anything to show for it.
@Paul M Doe: MUTE this tool
@Louis Jacob: and let’s see what he says about the €10 billion mentioned in the article SF have not accounted for. All as bad as each other. How many, like me, are politically homeless?
@Brian Keelty: & Mary Poo McDonald with her Stink Eye
€5 billion would only buy you two Childrens’ Hospitals and a few bike sheds under a FFG government.
@Aidan Collins: Total govt spending last year was about €102 billion for perspective
They’re done
@Ross: did you read to the end of the article? FG, ff and sf had all done the same thing. Don’t think there will be too much fuss from those three parties.
@Alan: they haven’t done the same thing. FG used a made up figure where an independent credible figure was available.
@marklars81: read the end
@marklars81: read the article, they did the same thing.
@marklars81: They have done exactly the same
@Ross: But you know as well as I do that it’s extremely likely that they’ll be back in power in January. If I’m wrong then fair enough but I reckon I’m not.
Just like the Tories, spending beyond their means to buy the election, vote wisely
@Peter Jo: who is the tax less spend less option then. Tell me and I’ll vote for them?
@Derick R M: u should vote for someone whos willing to make this country better…for ourselves….open more hospitals train nursed and doctors and pay them well to keep them here….send d worst of d worst to a private island and let them end themselves….make us self sufficient instead of looking to import make everything here…help the environment in the mean time….but the prentenders who call themselves politicians dont care about the average joe
@Derick R M: aontu
@Dixie: The political wing of Regressive Christianity?
No thanks.
In the words of Eamonn Dunphy..”Spoofers”
Ouch!
Who thinks there’s a magic money tree?
For Sale. One anti-SF piggy bank poster. As good as new. Genuine reason for selling. Open to offers: Phone Paschal or Simon
It’s only two and a bit children’s hospitals. Look it’s obvious. They are just promising a load of stuff that they will never ever do as they know that once returned to government they are safe for another 5 years. Then close to the next election it all happens all over again as there will be a lot of water under the bridge by then and they hope everyone will have forgotten. It’s very transparent.
@John Moore: just unbelievable…literally that people believe any of it …again and again… short memories seems a understatement and after 100 years of them DEFINITELY need a change
Jeez, that apple windfall won’t last till paddy’s day
@Frank Mc Carthy: Now you mention it, we were constantly told by FFG and their supporters that the apple tax would have to be shared around with other EU countries. Now they are deciding how they will spend it. Lie after lie these people have not got Irelands interest at heart. It’s just look after the elites and vulture funds.
Bluff and Bluster uncovered in government manifesto. Shock horror. Will it matter come the election? A quick look at Irish voter history will give you the answer. Absolutely not. Probably takes a couple of points off FG and passes them to FF. And around and around and around we go, when she stops nobody knows! Unfortunately it might mean we’ll have to suffer the Green Party again for another four years. God save us!
@JP Fox: couldn’t agree more. I’m so bored of this merry go round. Can we try somethings else..
The government being economical with the details of their budget plans, oh dear, who would have thought it!
@Brian Hunt: not just the govt, SF too, read the entire article.
The normal people deal in hundreds they spout on what they will do with millions your money
@John Kenny: Billions
Suprise suprise
FFG in meltdown and no time to revover the smart money on Mary lou for Taoiseach
Odds are shortening in bookies
@Kevin O Brien: you didn’t read the entire article did you?
Oh deary deary me…
They’ll find it behind a sofa in the Department of Public Spenditure, and it back to the Department of Finance for the public, not.
I suppose they’re waiting for the magic money tree to bloom
Hahahahahahah
Maybe it’ll be filled by a secret payment from the Soros foundation. Brown envelopes around.
That’s as embarrassing as not being able to answer a disability activist.
@stephen deegan: AND being rude to her. He cares little for carers or the disability sector. He showed his true colours in that exchange. If he did really care, he would have abolished that means test a decade ago. Complete Spoofers. As an unpaid carer for over 12 years now, I know what im talking about. I’ll be voting SF to at least give them a chance to change the trajectory of economics and housing and health in this country.
Touch of the National Children’s Hospital again…..
They will send the Drogheda lad round to sort out that professor
@Pork Hunt: Dundalk, and they’d be sending his mammy around who threatens people with solicitor’s letters ha ha
@Brian D’Arcy: did Mary looper come second in the strategic lawsuits awards… just saying :)
Did Kevin Cardiff run the FG numbers and give a big thumbs up? He has form in being incredibly wrong. Must be the calculator he bought off Wish.
Who is surprised. Remember when Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty found their fiscal space gap in their 2020 plan?
Remember also the embarrassing Leprechaun Econolics?
But come on folks – why is the USc still there on your payslip? Because Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have doubled our debt from €110bn to €230n!
You’re all being conned – they have no energy and have no responsibility – they are gamblers throwing away our hard earned money.
@Peter McGlynn: isn’t that the same fella who claimed he was an engineer but wasn’t. Donkey Doherty lol
@Paul M Doe: He does seem to be able to add though.
A skill missing from the FFG tribe.
Wow, I just wonder how many more nails are needed in the fgff coffin before we the electorate wake tf up.
I’m sure Hugh O’Connell will send a puff piece because of his sister in-law and drinking in Harris company
Is it that big of a surprise with FFG? E-voting machines , bike sheds, security huts. Sure the children’s hospital is a black hole that keeps on giving. These bluffers love wasting our money with no accountability
@barry williams: Don’t forget the printer :-))
RTE doesn’t seem to have covered this story …. I wonder why …
Where’s Paul M Doe? Probably upstairs playing with the black hole he made in his bedroom
@Freda Peeple: probably in bed with tired jim,they both been on here 24/7 bigging up ffg for yonks now
@Freda Peeple: who cares with his 10 fake accounts,oh wait make that 11 he will be back shortly with a new name,,,
@Freda Peeple: we all know what he’s really playing with,….doe.
@Freda Peeple: leave attention starved child “paul” alone! He’d a long one lastnight with his 14 hr shift trollin. (3am by looks of it). Paul, Jim, trump24, etc. Everyone muted/reported ya! Doncha get it irrelevant boy? FG f#ck ups can’t continue. Vote for anyone but them…
lol
@james rowan: hi
@Jb Walshe: ask the Dough nut!
Fine Gael senator John mc gahon has grabbed a 20 pack of twixs and is on his way around to fill that hole!
@Michael o connor: brilliant !
It seems that Fine Gael and Simon Harris either discovered the magic money tree or are misleading us about their election promises again and have no plan to fulfil them.
They’re built on a foundation of lies. They take huge pride in that fact.
Where is Paul M Doe today? Not so keen commenting on this story?
@Paul whitehead: lol
FG should recalculate their Manifesto spending budget to include an Abacus for each of their members …
Ye want your head examined if you vote for this again , elitist tories in disguise, no respect for that woman today in the shop speaks volumes about a man not fit to lead a country
No one will win this election. Simon Harris and Paschal O’Donoghue have lost the election.
Hahahahahha the FFG magic money tree continues to bear fruits. The childrens hospital, almost 5x overbudget. The bike shed. The modular housing. The security hut. If you vote FFG, give your head a wobble. Seriously.
Shocking and concerning
It is an easy mistake to make. It’s hardly worth all the fuss. You wouldn’t even get 2 FG hospitals built for that.
These boys are jokers
“,FG’s figures are sound”?…. does paul m dope/all tired of jim,ect also make soundbites up for these plebs? Sounds like it. Nob head was trolling til 3am yest on his 10 cans of rosies dew, so he’s submerged now. Made total cheese rod of himself today whilst prob still pisht. Glad fg will go down hill “bigly” from here on…. “lol”.
I think a bigger storm blew in the bellies of the Gael force team. I also sense a clearing in the aftermath.
So basically FG can’t add that about seems right judging by previous performance
@Vinny Hughes: And SF FF did the same thing, the ignored the Fiscal Councils figure. They all can’t add it would seem.
Well if you will put a child with a fisher price calculator in the finance hot seat. As it is a political costing, not one they can blame on the Department of Finance mandarins
Very telling watching Pascal getting caught with his pants down the other day. Just wouldn’t answer a straight question regarding how the cost of school bus jumped from 40mil to 80mil in 3 years.
Fg cant be trusted with money
This and paschal having dinner and cosying up to Michael o leary at dinner. YOU CANNOT TRUST ANY POLITICIANS. They are all liars.
@reg morrisey:
And Trump being wined and dined at the New York Sinn Fein fund raiser
@H Woo: different jurisdictions Mr woo
If this was sinn fein RTE news would lead with that!
Corrupt
Why is the apple money talked about so much, according to FG there is enough money in the coffers without this money and should be used for purposes and not a stick to rerun them to power, they are total liars and cheats.
They’ll plug the black hole by screwing is over in the next few budgets.
Bluffs, spoofers and charlatans. THIS is the proof! Anybody who votes for a party led by that imbe@@@e Harris deserves the leadership they get.
Any yet they still get back in power again no doubt…
@pat kelly: no they wont,after tic toc t boy pluck up yesterday and now this,,,
@pat kelly: the mighty FG are home and hosed :)
@Paul M Doe: Many of them retiring paddocks
I still wake up at night with nightmares of Irish mothers binding their daughters’ feet in order to avoid paying VAT on adult shoes. Traumas like that never go away, you know.
All Blatter & Bull! No mention anywhere on accountability. No one demoted or sacked re the Hospital, Bicycle sheds,HSE waste. No mention of the useless Quangos which drain millions. No mention of the wealthy not paying tax in Ireland. Add to that the refusal to enact the 2002 Directive on workers rights to councils within enterprises. And what about the transferring tax income to the horse racing crowd. Subsiding the wealthy while children remain homeless. Scandalous!
Wait, you’re telling me that the party of big spending and big promises didn’t cost their promises properly? What a shocker. Fine Gael bear most of the responsibility for our national debt and since they keep hiking taxes to pay for their bribery to the masses, such spending deficits were inevitable as you can only squeeze so many pennies out of the taxpayer. Fine Gael hasn’t cut back on spending once since they got back into power 15 years ago and every year the size of the budget has expanded. Disgraceful!
So all three main parties are billions out. I’ve been saying for ages there is a need for a new centre party in this country, none of the ones that are likely to lead Government are credible. The smaller opposition parties likely to go into coalition are either far left or extreme far left that would completely bankrupt the country.
@Richard Keogh: I agree, FG, FF & SF’s costings €10 Billion out between the three of them & who will make up the shortfall, the Irish Taxpayer slaves. We need to take to the streets, Dail Eirinn is a den of Corruption & no political party or leader is going to be any different. Until there is a Revolt that shocks the Political & Media Golden Circle in Ireland, nothing will change.
@Richard Keogh: must be very comforting to imagine hypothetical situations where you’re always right
@John Mc Dermott:
Change to what?
@SV3tN8M4: take to the streets is not an option since drew got a good deal on his water cannon from his compadres up north.
@SV3tN8M4: You’re absolutely right John. We need a proper and authentic free-market capitalist party that pursues right-wing policies domestically and abroad. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are stale centre-left who only bicker with Sinn Fein on the amount of spending and theft through taxation, not whether the spending or taxation should be happening in the first place.
Isn’t is amazing that the only “stories” are about FG who got us with Labour out of total bankruptcy. Harris was personally attacked as ‘not a good man’ by a person (no party affiliation confirmed) who stated the State had “done nothing” for carers”. This is 100% wrong. She+ her CEO work for a State funded organisation. Where is the “scrutiny” of the 1 TD parties given equivalence to the 3 main parties? Is no one else campaigning? Who takes responsibility for funneling a €4 million legacy through the North when they want to know who paid for a plate of food in the South? What about the parties who bankrupted the country just over a decade ago+ all the other parties who produce proposals with no costs. “Independent Ireland” on RTE were asked a series of questions on costs+ answered none.
@Brian Merriman: go back to bed terry, you’ve been proning on all night.
@Brian Merriman: none of them take responsibility. That’s the problem. FF bankrupted the country. No accountability. No bank bailout according to MM. FG & labour promised to burn the bond holders but once in power went after the ordinary worker and raided people’s pensions. No accountability. Then they tried to heap water charges on top of us. Harris was the man in charge when poor women died over the cervical smear/cancer shameful fiasco. No accountability. He signed off on the NCH fiasco. No accountability. Record homelessness . No accountability. Bike sheds, security huts etc etc etc .. Never any accountability. These parasites don’t care about the people of this country . They need rid of
@barry williams: And FF took our National Debt from a tad over €45 billion to overcome €100 billion, while FG and FFG doubled that again.
Servicing that National Debt will cost us €15 billion next year.
That’s an Apple..
Or many Childrens Hospitals.
Every year.
@Brian Merriman:
We were in the gutter in 2010 after FF.
We were at the bottom of the e hole.
Anyone who got into power then was always going to improve us… but what have they since!!!
All anyone needs to do is deduct the FDI cash cow and then they can see how the country would be foooooooked is the last 12 years….we would be Albania
@barry williams: mother and baby homes, the Catholic church raping there way through the country, 800 babies buried in a sewer in tuam, the babies mothers probably worked to death doing laundry for fianna gaels finest. All under the watch of successive fianna gael government’s.
@Brian Merriman: are you serious, fgff spouting about sf pbp having a magic money tree,
And pbp would bankrupt the country, yet these are pot kettle
Hugh waste of tax payers money, that could be spent on giving people like the disadvantaged and carers, disabled .a basic standard of living. We also need to be looking at departments that sign off on these projects and make managers accountable also.
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: The servicing of the debt isn’t 15bn a year , our average interest rate on all debt is 1.5% so it’s about 3.5bn annually. This information is freely available.
Every party has lies in ireland since I was very born it doesn’t matter who you vote nothing will help us and never will
But but but the Journal are in FF/FGs pocket and NEVER say anything bad about the government. I read this FACT here constantly
Reading the headline, it would make you think that one party did this, but all 3 larger parties have ignored the Fiscal Councils figure. The question that pops into my mind is why? If we are to understand what is going on, is the figure from the Fiscal Council correct?
It’s not a one off thing that only 1 party didn’t use it but all 3 did, and of course we don’t know what figures the other parties used.
It’s important that this is investigated further as 5.0bn , 2.5bn are large figures.
The Sinn Fein yes men sure got to work on that one. LOSERS.
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