LAST UPDATE | 3 Dec

FIANNA FÁIL AND Fine Gael appear to be each other’s most straightforward path to government, should they wish it (and, of course, they wish it).

The full general election results after counting finished yesterday mean that together, the two parties would be only a couple of seats short of a majority, which could be found by signing up Independents or a smaller party.

However, another Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil-led coalition could be complicated by whether the two parties are willing to make concessions sought by the other.

Fianna Fáil secured the largest number of seats of any party in this election (48).

Sinn Féin is the second largest on 39 but Micheál Martin has said he won’t go into coalition with them, while Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has indicated her preference is to lead a left-wing alliance.

Fine Gael are the next largest parliamentary party with 38 seats. That means there’s a gap of ten seats between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. 

Fine Gael is open to going into coalition with Fianna Fáil but has signalled that it would want ‘parity of esteem’ – despite having secured only 80% the number of seats that Fianna Fáil now has. 

Essentially, Fine Gael wants to be on the same footing as Fianna Fáil in important decisions, even though it has ten fewer seats.

Fianna Fáil technically has the upper hand in terms of numbers and could choose not to concede to Fine Gael on matters like rotating the role of Taoiseach – but Fine Gael knows that Fianna Fáil would rather form a government with it than with Sinn Féin, meaning both parties are bringing cards to the table. 

The idea of ‘parity of esteem’ would be particularly relevant to decisions about appointing TDs to ministerial portfolios and arranging who becomes Taoiseach.

The Journal politics team has reported that a senior Fianna Fáil source said at the weekend that Micheál Martin’s ambition going into the election was to lead the next government for its entire term, meaning a preference not to repeat the rotating Taoiseach arrangement of the 33rd Dáil.

A senior Fine Gael source said during counting that they felt Martin would accept the rotating Taoiseach model if there wasn’t a huge difference between the two parties in terms of the number of seats and that there would be “no way” Fine Gael would go in otherwise.

The Fine Gael source said there would be “a dance” between the parties before reaching an agreement.

In its quest for parity of esteem, Fine Gael wants to see the rotating Taoiseach arrangement continued.

That would mean that Micheál Martin and Simon Harris (or, if either happens to resign as party leader during the government term, their successor) would take turns at having the top job as head of government, with the other serving as Tánaiste.

The maximum and typical number of Cabinet seats is 15; obviously, as an odd number, that can’t be split exactly 50-50, but Fine Gael would want the arrangement to be as close to that as possible.

As well as deciding on appointments, the parties would need to agree on a new programme for government, which would require hashing out their manifestos and trying to strike a deal somewhere in the middle.

All of that could take some time to settle on.

Fianna Fáil’s deputy leader Jack Chambers, who was re-elected in Dublin West, has said he does not expect a coalition to be formed before Christmas.

“I don’t expect a government to be formed in mid-December. When the Dáil is due to meet on 18 December, probably a Ceann Comhairle can be elected, and there’ll have to be time and space taken to make sure we can form a coherent, stable government,” Chambers told RTÉ.

“I don’t think it should take five months like it did the last time – Covid obviously complicated that – but I think all political parties need to take the time to see what’s possible and try and form a stable government for the Irish people.”

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have yet to make contact (yet), but other parties are making plans today. 

Labour leader Ivana Bacik has arranged meetings with both the Social Democrats on Friday and the Green Party’s Roderic O’Gorman on Thursday.

The Soc Dems team, made up of Cian O’Callaghan, Gary Gannon and Jennifer Whitmore, are also due to meet with Sinn Féin’s team on Thursday in Leinster House. A meeting of its parliamentary party was held online today.

Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin will each hold a meeting of their parliamentary parties tomorrow in Leinster House.