LAST UPDATE | 11 Dec 2023

A DRAFT DEAL at COP28 will not be accepted by the EU unless significant changes are made, Minister for Climate Eamon Ryan has said.

Countries have been negotiating for nearly two weeks at a UN climate conference on major decisions about efforts to try to thwart climate change, including the need to cut fossil fuel use.

But the deal is at risk of falling apart, with former US Vice President Al Gore saying the conference is “on the verge of complete failure”.

The latest version of a decision text, which has gone through several drafts as countries tussle over how far they will be expected to go, has deleted language in previous drafts about phasing out fossil fuels.

Instead, the current draft recognises the need to reduce emissions and calls upon countries to take actions that “could include” “reducing both consumption and projection of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by, before or around 2050 in keeping with the science”.

A previous draft had set out three options for what the final version might include around fossil fuels. One was a call for an “orderly and just phase out of fossil fuels”, while another was for “accelerating efforts towards phasing out unabated fossil fuels and to rapidly reducing their use so as to achieve net-zero CO2 in energy systems by or around mid-century”. The final option was that no item would be included on the matter.

The distinction between phasing out or phasing down has been seen as highly important as it means the difference between a specific call to fully cut out fossil fuels, or a vaguer one that puts much weaker obligation on countries.

However, this latest draft text sidesteps that debate entirely by referring only to “reducing” fossil fuels.

Minister Eamon Ryan, who is on the ground at the conference — though not a lead negotiator on this text, which is known as the Global Stocktake — said that he does not expect this text will be accepted.

“We have to get an agreement but it won’t be on the basis of this text,” Ryan said.

He said the use of the phrase could include’ — meaning there would be no real obligation on countries to cut fossil fuels — “kills everything”.

“Even beneath that, down the line, it’s not strong enough. It raises real problems in a whole range of different ways.” 

In the area of climate finance, he said there is “much missing” and “no real opening up of the possibility of wider sources of finance and reducing harmful sources of finance”.

Asked whether he would walk away from the deal if the text is not amended, he said: “If this doesn’t change, yes, it will not be accepted as the text.” 

COP28 is now on the verge of complete failure. The world desperately needs to phase out fossil fuels as quickly as possible, but this obsequious draft reads as if OPEC dictated it word for word. It is even worse than many had feared. It is “Of the Petrostates, By the Petrostates…

— Al Gore (@algore) December 11, 2023

EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said this afternoon that there are “a couple of good things in there, but overall it is clearly insufficient and not adequate to addressing the problem we are here to address”.

As the COP meets, many parts of the world are already facing devastating impacts of climate change.

If global average temperatures rise by 1.5 degrees, the world “faces unavoidable multiple climate hazards” in the next 20 years, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Exceeding a 1.5 degree rise, even temporarily, would lead to “additional severe impacts, some of which will be irreversible”.

Along with the EU, small island states and the US have called for the final deal to have more specific demands on fossil fuel use.

Chair of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) Toeolesulusulu Cedric Schuster said: ”We feel our voices are not being heard, while it appears that several other parties have enjoyed preferential treatment, compromising the transparency and inclusivity of the process.”

A US State Department spokesperson said that the “mitigation section, including the issue of fossil fuels, needs to be substantially strengthened, and the finance section contains inaccuracies that must be fixed”.