THE DEBATE OVER getting an agreement on cutting fossil fuels is heating up at COP28, with Minister for Climate Eamon Ryan saying that failing to adopt specific decisions is “not a viable option”.
COP28 negotiations are debating whether countries will be called on to phase out fossil fuels entirely or simply to “accelerate efforts” towards phasing out “unabated” fossil fuels.
The term “unabated” is known for being somewhat vague, but generally refers to the idea of compensating in some way for the burning of those fossil fuels.
A key negotiation track at this COP is on the outcome of a Global Stocktake assessing the world’s progress since the 2015 Paris Agreement on trying to limit temperature rise to manageable levels — which is way off track.
A text is being drafted that will call on countries to take action in line with the findings of the stocktake, but exactly what the final text will look like is still up in the air.
On cutting fossil fuels, the latest iteration of the draft document, published today, gives three potential options for the final version:
The decision document may call on countries to triple renewable energy capacity and double improvements in energy efficiency – or to have ‘no text’ on the matter.
Another potential ask on countries is the “substantially scaling up globally by 2030 [of] zero and low-emission technologies, including abatement and removal technologies, including carbon capture, utilization and storage, and low-carbon hydrogen production”.
Minister for Climate Eamon Ryan said this afternoon that selection of options will be the “first test” for the text.
Speaking to reporters in Dubai, he said there will be “plenty of opportunity to amend it in the next few days – that’s when the political system kicks in”.
The minister said he does not expect the text to be the “be all and end all” of climate action but that it would give “clear political direction and the ability to establish guidelines in terms of how you deliver fossil fuel phaseout and change the climate financing system”.
“In most of the sections, there is a ‘no text’ option. That’s really a ‘whatever you’re having yourself’ – that wouldn’t put an obligation on anyone. That has the least ambition,” he said.
“I think our first common goal is that there is no ‘no text’. That’s not a viable option. You have to have a broad text here. Last year was mainly about loss and damage – this year has to be about everything.
It’s not beyond the bounds of possibility that this could be quite a positive COP – if things don’t trip up.”
The use of the word ‘orderly’ in relation to fossil fuel phaseout may have come from COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber, AFP has reported, which would give countries wiggle room on when exactly they would make those cuts to fossil fuels.
Countries like Russia, China and Saudi Arabia would prefer there to be no reference at all to fossil fuels.
On Monday, Al Jaber, who is the UAE’s climate change envoy but also the head of state oil company Adnoc, had to defend himself after being criticised for comments he made in an online forum with Mary Robinson in which he suggested there is no science to show that phasing out fossil fuels is necessary to achieve the world’s climate goals.
Our climate reporter Lauren Boland joined us on Monday from COP 28 to tell us what’s happening on the ground – what measures are being bashed out, and about Ireland’s involvement. Watch here or below.
UN climate executive Simon Stiell said today that countries are “posturing” at the talks.
“We need COP to deliver a bullet train to speed up climate action. We currently have an old caboose chugging over rickety tracks,” Stiell said.
Many parts of the world are already facing devastating impacts of climate change.
If global average temperatures rise by 1.5 degrees, the world “faces unavoidable multiple climate hazards” in the next 20 years, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Exceeding a 1.5 degree rise, even temporarily, would lead to “additional severe impacts, some of which will be irreversible”.
The European Space Agency’s Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed today that November set a new monthly record for heat for the sixth consecutive month.
2023 is on track to break the record for the hottest year of modern records, Copernicus said, echoing findings already released by the World Meteorological Organisation.
November was nearly a third of a degree Celsius hotter than the previous hottest November and 1.75 degrees above pre-industrial times. Although the numbers may seem minor, even small changes in average temperatures can have significant impacts for the planet.
Copernicus deputy director Samantha Burgess said that “the last half year has truly been shocking”.
“Scientists are running out of adjectives to describe this.”
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