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Committee hears further outbreaks of Covid-19 'probable', but strategy is 'right one for Ireland at this time'

Any future increases in numbers would likely be managed in a targeted way, Professor Philip Nolan said today.

THE CHAIR OF the Covid-19 modelling advisory group has said it is “probable” that at some point in future there will be an increase in the number of cases of the disease in Ireland again.

At the Oireachtas Special Covid-19 Committee, Professor Philip Nolan was asked about a letter signed by leading Irish scientists which warns of a second wave of infection in Ireland with the current strategy.

Nolan said with any new virus, scientists will have different judgements based on the “incomplete evidence “available, but he believes the current approach is “the right strategy for this country at this time”.

When asked about the potential for a second wave of infection, Nolan said it is “probable that at some point in the future the incidence of disease will increase again in our society”.

“When will this happen and how difficult will it be to manage is very hard to predict.”

He said management of renewed outbreaks would likely be different as we learn more about the virus.

“So I imagine that there could be more targeted measures introduced to control the future outbreaks before the sort of blanket measures that we’ve seen in this context,” he said.

“It would be arrogant of me to predict where we will be with the virus by the end of the year. There is lots we don’t know. We need to plan as if a second wave is possible and try to have all of the contingency plans in place for that scenario if the virus comes back in the future.”

Witnesses in front of the committee were also questioned today about how significant travel by Cheltenham racegoers was to the spread of infection when they returned home to Ireland. 

There was criticism back in March of the decision by organisers of the Cheltenham Festival to press ahead with it. 

Dr Cillian De Gascun, director of the National Virus Reference Laboratory said there is no specific evidence of this travel having a significant role in the transmission of this disease. 

“At the moment we don’t have specific evidence that the virus would have been particular associated with those groups of individuals,” he said.

We are an island nation with significant transport links to other European countries on a daily basis. I don’t think we have evidence to support the assertion that they would have been points of introduction for the virus.

De Gascun said he believes the current Covid-19 testing system is working “incredibly well” but pointed out that it was set up in the context of a pandemic and a long-term solution is needed. 

He said the HSE is working on a more sustainable solution for the winter season.

“What we have done so far has worked well, but I believe given the way it has been established with the number of volunteers and staff seconded from other positions, a longer term solution is required.”

Committee members also pressed Professor Nolan and Dr De Gascun on advice around the use of face coverings. 

Independent TD Matt Shanahan said there have been “confusing messages” around their use and how effective they are. 

De Gasun said that while there may be a “plausible hypothesis” about cloth face coverings stopping particles and therefore stopping the virus, the strength of the evidence “not fantastic” and more research is needed.

However he said the current recommendation is that people wear coverings in situations where it is difficult to physically distance from others, such as in supermarkets or on public transport. He said they may be beneficial if used appropriately, but should only be viewed as “an add-on” to the other public health advice. 

Professor Nolan said he is concerned that people may see the use of face coverings as a replacement for other elements such as handwashing and maintaining distance, which he said are “essential” pieces of advice in terms of the pandemic. 

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    Mute Rear Admiral
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    Aug 22nd 2018, 5:29 PM

    I’ll be sending back that “Huberman’s Haemerrhoid Cream” so

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    Mute Bazzle Bush
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    Aug 22nd 2018, 5:36 PM

    @Rear Admiral: No! That ones legit!

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    Mute iohanx
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    Aug 22nd 2018, 5:37 PM

    @Rear Admiral: does it work?

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    Mute Shelly Levine
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    Aug 22nd 2018, 5:49 PM

    @iohanx: I’m squeaky clean. Thanks Amy!

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    Mute Declan Tooher
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    Aug 22nd 2018, 6:37 PM

    Unfortunately, this is not the first scam she has been involved in. All those awful tv shows that demand you to pay a licence fee spring to mind.

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    Mute MarkS
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    Aug 22nd 2018, 6:31 PM

    Nice to see she is branching out from the weekly Irish independent mouthpiece articles that nobody cares about.

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    Mute chinaski
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    Aug 23rd 2018, 1:41 AM

    @MarkS: You beat me to it. What is it with the indos obsession with her and him?

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    Mute David Quigley
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    Aug 23rd 2018, 6:35 AM

    @chinaski: The indo is a celebrity rag masquerading as a broadsheet

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    Mute Seriously stunned
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    Aug 23rd 2018, 9:00 AM

    @David Quigley: yea we love the journal.ie woo hoooo

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    Mute MarkS
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    Aug 23rd 2018, 9:30 AM

    @chinaski: she’s on some kind of weekly nonsense rotation with Vogue William’s, Amanda Brunker & Roz Purcell. Twink lost her place in the rotation last year unfortunately.

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    Mute Brian McDonnell
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    Aug 22nd 2018, 5:36 PM

    Beauty cream warns users to beware of the sham that is…….

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    Mute Tyler Williams
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    Aug 22nd 2018, 6:12 PM

    I’m not from these parts so I have absolutely no idea who she is. What is IFTA?

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    Mute TellingItAsItIs
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    Aug 22nd 2018, 6:32 PM

    @Tyler Williams: She’s a very popular average actress and also wife to a famous ex rugby player called Brian O’Driscoll. She’s also pretty and could sell ice cream to the Eskimos.

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    Mute David Grey
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    Aug 22nd 2018, 11:47 PM

    Tyler . Google

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    Mute Margate
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    Aug 23rd 2018, 12:34 AM

    @TellingItAsItIs: Very popular? Eh? Not with that many…she wings her way simply based on looks, fame, hubby etc, otherwise limited..

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    Mute Rhona Byrne
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    Aug 23rd 2018, 8:20 AM

    @Tyler Williams: Irish Film and Television Awards

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    Mute TellingItAsItIs
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    Aug 24th 2018, 5:52 PM

    @Margate: she’s also popular because she’s a very nice lady

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    Mute Tony Maguire
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    Aug 22nd 2018, 7:06 PM

    Ya can’t beat a bit of free advertising!!!

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    Mute James O'Brien
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    Aug 22nd 2018, 11:53 PM

    This is product of RTE. Labeling people as influencers. Vogue Williams will be next or Brunker

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    Mute Jaci Black
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    Aug 22nd 2018, 10:02 PM

    Stay away from the sun and eat healthily. Water is not your enemy.

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    Mute Maggie O'Sullivan
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    Aug 22nd 2018, 10:04 PM

    Total waste of money. Margarine does the same job as any of these expensive creams.

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    Mute Colette Kearns
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    Aug 22nd 2018, 9:48 PM

    Don’t waste your money on any of them, soap & water then some E45 cream ( 400 ml ) for under €10

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    Mute Rob Cahill
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    Aug 23rd 2018, 9:31 AM

    She has fans?

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    Mute Derek Walsh Ⓥ
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    Aug 22nd 2018, 8:41 PM

    What sort of idiot would be fooled by “anti-aging cream?”

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    Mute Ann Basquille Smith
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    Aug 22nd 2018, 11:49 PM

    Who are accepting these adverts

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