TELEVISION PRESENTER GRÁINNE Seoige may lose out on a seat for Fianna Fáil in the general election in Galway West according to a new constituency poll.
A survey commissioned by broadcaster TG4, in conjunction with pollsters Ipsos B&A, has suggested that Micheál Martin’s party may struggle in Galway West in the absence of its retiring long-serving TD Éamon Ó Cuív.
Seoige and her running mate Galway city councillor John Connolly are both on seven percent – placing them behind Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas, who resigned from Fianna Fáil earlier this year. In 2020, the Fianna Fáil vote totalled 23 per cent but this new poll shows party support down ten percentage points in the constituency.
The poll, revealed on Nuacht TG4 tonight, shows that all four incumbent TD in Galway West are in the running for a spot in the five-seat constituency.
Independent TDs Catherine Connolly and Noel Grealish are both polling strongly at 13 percent and 12 percent each, while it’s better news for Fine Gael – its TD Hildegarde Naughton is on course to retain her seat with 13 percent and senator Sean Kyne is just behind the top three with ten percent.
The results of the constituency poll are below.
It’s tight across the ballot with only 6 percentage points separating the top 8 candidates.
The other candidates in Galway West are Pauline O’Reilly (Green Party) who is on five percent, Helen Ogbu (Labour) on four percent, Eibhlín Seoighthe (Social Democrats) on three per cent and Mike Cubbard (Non-Party) on 3 percent.
However, there is a margin of error of about plus or minus four percentage points. The poll, which was conducted over the phone on Monday and Tuesday of this week, had a sample of 531 people.
At the time of polling, 16 candidates had declared for the constituency. The quota for election is 17% according to the polling company.
Sinn Féin may take solace in that the same poll four years ago had them at seven percent, when their TD Mairead Farrell eventually claimed a seat on that twice that figure as the party gained momentum over that campaign.
For Fianna Fáil, if the poll turns out to be accurate, it could hold the embarrassing sight of its former county councillor Thomas finishing ahead of Seoige and Connolly.
Thomas stood down from the party amid a dispute over housing people seeking international protection in Oughterard last year.
In the aftermath of a suspected arson attack on a hotel earmarked for asylum seekers, Fianna Fáil commissioned an internal review into comments made by Thomas in which he deemed that “the inn is full”. Thomas later said the party review contributed to his decision to step down.
This is the first of a series of TG4 / Ipsos B&A constituency polls as part of TG4’s election 2024 coverage. Next Tuesday it will reveal the results of the Donegal constituency, followed by Mayo on Thursday 21 November and Kerry on Tuesday 26 November.
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