AFTER A BRIEF three weeks of campaigning, the talking is over and the nation has spoken at the ballot box.
However, it will be some time before we know the results of the 2024 general election.
Unlike last time out in 2020, there are four extra constituencies and 14 additional Dáil seats up for grabs.
It means close to 700 candidates have been vying for votes across 43 constituencies to fill the 174 seats in what will be the largest ever Dáil Éireann.
We could be facing a slightly longer count than last time as a result.
The exit poll released late last night gives an indication of what the next Dáil will look like, but the only poll that matters is the one that voters took part in yesterday.
Here’s what we can expect today and over the weekend.
Around the country, the ballot boxes will be opened at 9am and the counting will get underway.
In 2020, just over 2.2 million votes were cast, a turnout rate of close to 63%.
Voters went to the polls on Saturday, 8 February in 2020 and counting got underway at 9am on Sunday, 9 February.
The counting in 2020 lasted right up until midnight on Monday, 10 February, when Cavan-Monaghan was the last constituency to fill their seats at 11.59pm.
Ireland uses the PR-STV system, in which voters indicate who they would like to see elected in order of preference.
When the counting starts, staff will tally the first preference votes for each candidate, which can take some time.
However, at around 10am, initial tallies from will come out across the country which will give an indication on the state of play across the 43 constituencies.
Sinn Féin enjoyed a surged across the country in the 2020 election and sure enough, it was clear from early tallies shortly before 10am last time out that the party was on course for a good day.
Meanwhile, tallies from Cork South Central at around 11am had Sinn Féin’s Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire out-polling both Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin and Fine Gael’s Simon Coveney, a lead Ó Laoghaire held on to.
From around 1pm, the tallies begin to take real shape and we can begin to reasonably predict who will win, or lose, a seat.
For example, in 2020, Sinn Féin’s Aengus O Snodaigh entered the RDS in Dublin before 1pm and was greeted by cheers as it was clear he would take a seat – he went on to be elected on the first count.
On the other end of the scale, Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne, who was then the government’s chief whip, became aware he was in trouble of losing his seat at around 1.30pm – it was 30 hours later that it became official that he would not be retaining his seat in Galway West.
Govt chief whip @SeanKyneTD is a worried man. With 8.2% of the vote, after 80% of boxes tallied in #GalwayWest #ge2020 and FG colleague @1Hildegarde ahead 9.6%, he’s in danger of losing seat @CTribune pic.twitter.com/qD9B5sM61s
— Dara Bradley (@Barnacles09) February 9, 2020
The tallies will give us a good indication of how the official first counts will go.
In 2011, Dublin West was the first constituency to return a first count at 2.47pm.
In 2016, it was Galway East at 2.53pm but in 2020 we had to wait until 4.22pm until the first count, when Sinn Féin’s Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire was elected in Cork South Central.
Sinn Féin’s Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire tops the poll in Cork South Central with 14057 #GE2020 pic.twitter.com/ZjF9fugcAV
— RTÉ Cork South-Central (@RTEcorkSTHCENT) February 9, 2020
The results then came rolling in thick and fast over the next hour and a half, and by 6pm nine further candidates were elected.
Come 8pm, 27 candidates had been elected to Dáil Éireann.
However, while some constituencies had already completed their second count by 8pm, others had yet to complete their first, such as Dublin Bay North, where the first count came in at around 8.05pm.
It took even longer in other constituencies, with Longford-Westmeath, Kerry, Donegal and Cavan-Monaghan still not registering their first count as the clock struck 9pm.
And while Galway East was able to elect all its TDs by 9.40pm last time out, it was 10.30pm before Cavan-Monaghan was able to return a first count, making it the last constituency in the country to do so.
It now becomes a question of stamina – will count staff persevere through the night or call it a day?
Count centres make a decision on a case-by-case basis when to stop counting for the night, usually around midnight.
But it can be earlier for others.
Cavan-Monaghan returned its first count at 10.30pm, electing Sinn Féin’s Matt Carthy and Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys, and decided to call it a night there and then.
Staff in the RDS did similar shortly after.
However, come 11pm, three constituencies – Clare, Galway West and Kildare North had yet to elect a TD.
Galway West persevered into the small hours with its count, and in the Roscommon-Galway count centre, hardy staff kept at it until the early hours despite the lights going out.
Talk about tension! Power outage just as the final transfers are being counted! #GE2020 pic.twitter.com/gMDH7bjrWH
— RTÉ Roscommon-Galway (@RTErosGalway) February 10, 2020
A first TD wasn’t elected in Galway West until 11am the following day, despite the best efforts of staff who worked into the wee hours.
Come the morning after in 2020, 13 of the then 39 constituencies had finished counting, with 26 still to go.
It’s uncertain if the additional four constituencies and extra Dáil seats up for grabs will add to count times.
And if 2020 is anything to go by, we could be looking at two full days of counting before we learn the complete makeup of the next Dáil.
In 2020, counting started at 9am on 9 February, and it was at just before midnight, at 11.59pm on 10 February, that Cavan-Monaghan delivered the final results in the country, when Fianna Fáil’s Brendan Smith and Niamh Smyth were elected.
Cavan-Monaghan was the last constituency to return a first count and also the last to deliver all their TDs.
So while the outlook could be reasonably clear come Saturday night, we could be waiting until the small hours of Monday before the full results are known.
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