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BILLIONAIRE INVESTOR GEORGE Soros said Europe faces 25 years of Japanese-style stagnation unless politicians pursue further integration of the currency bloc and change policies that have discouraged banks from lending.
While the immediate financial crisis that has plagued Europe since 2010 “is over,” it still faces a political crisis that has divided the region between creditor and debtor nations, Soros, 83, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in London today. At the same time, banks have been encouraged to pass stress tests, rather than boost the economy by providing capital to businesses, he said.
Europe “may not survive 25 years of stagnation,” Soros said in the interview with Francine Lacqua. “You have to go further with the integration. You have to solve the banking problem, because Europe is lagging behind the rest of the world in sorting out its banks.”
Soros, whose hedge-fund firm gained about 20 percent a year on average from 1969 to 2011, has been a constant critic of how the European currency bloc was designed and of budget cuts imposed on indebted nations such as Greece and Spain at the height of the crisis. He said more “radical” policies are required to avoid a “long period” of stagnation.
Yields Falling
Investors have concluded that Europe’s debt crisis has waned, with the average yield-to-maturity on bonds from Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain falling to 2.4 percent yesterday, the lowest in the history of the euro area, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. That’s down from more than 9.5 percent in 2011, when the region was rocked by concern that nations would struggle to service their debt, risking a breakup of the currency bloc.
European bank shares are “very depressed,” making it an “attractive time” to invest, Soros said. Still, he said it is going to be a “very tough year” for lenders as they try to shrink balance sheets and boost their capital to pass the European Central Bank’s stress tests, he said.
The 43-member Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index trades at a 0.2 percent discount to book value, while the KBW Bank Index, which tracks 24 U.S. lenders, trades at a 14 percent premium, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The ECB will analyze lenders this year to determine whether they could survive an economic crisis. ECB Chairman Mario Draghi has said he’s determined to convince investors that the health check is thorough and credible.
Ukraine Crisis
Soros Fund Management LLC, the hedge-fund firm that Soros turned into a New York-based family office three years ago to manage only his personal wealth, made $5.5 billion of investment gains in 2013, according to LCH Investments NV. The profits were more than any hedge-fund manager, according to LCH, a firm overseen by the Edmond de Rothschild Group that invests in hedge funds.
Soros also said Ukraine should serve as a “wake-up call” for Europe, because the political turmoil the country now faces stems in part from the same problems that triggered the region’s financial crisis.
The European Union required “too much” of Ukraine and offered “too little” as the country attempted to join the political bloc, he said. That enabled Russian President Vladimir Putin to fill the void and gain power in Ukraine, he said.
“Europe needs to rediscover its own European identity — instead of each country just pursuing its own national interests and getting further into conflict with the others,” Soros said. “I hope Europe passes this test” in Ukraine, he said.
Soros, who made $1 billion betting against the U.K. pound in 1992, added that a British referendum on leaving the EU would be “disastrous,” because it would cost the country jobs.
U.K. growth has been fueled by multinational companies selling goods and services to Europe, so it would be “suicidal” if the country left, he said.
While family carers are means tested for carers allowance.
@Úna O Connor Barrett: you can say that again
@Úna O Connor Barrett: The funds are there Una, they just do not care… Let them know in the next election..
@Úna O Connor Barrett: think rich people should be subsidised by poorer taxpayers? That’s reason for a means test.
By all means question the threshold but if you are saying a millionaire should automatically qualify then I disagree.
The war is confined to a small part of the country now. You would imagine many of those that came here would be able to return.
@Munster1: Emphasis on for now. Things can change drastically not to mention many of these Ukrainians have not just lost their homes and family members, but their entire towns and cities too.
@Munster1: I think you can thank your lucky stars that you live in Ireland. What a dreadful comment. You have no idea of the horrors nor of the current and future situation of the country . Ukraine is a war zone, all of it currently. Perhaps you should devote some of your free time to helping the Irish disadvantaged and or the Ukrainian refugees. And yes, many of them want nothing more than to return to their homeland
@Dave Phelan: have you been there, have you witnessed first hand these so called atrocities, no, you sit at home in front of your PC and type idiotic statements. find some real information from real people, on the front line, and watch ho most of the cities are in fact, as everyday normal. what has happened to the people of ireland, now we just watch as our leader propose to be the “good boys ” of europe, while they neglect the needs of everyone in this country, unless you are rich of course and there is something in it for them.
@Darren Murphy: They were voted in because they were well able to ignore the needs of others. That happened long beforehand and it’s on us.
While family carers are means tested for carers allowance and have to fight for medical cards
@Úna O Connor Barrett: Absolutely true Una
In the first instance for many people reading this the initial gut response will probably be…
What about the homeless in Ireland? And why isnt the government funding support for them?
To put this in context the total of Public Expenditure on Homeless Service Provision in the Dublin Region in 2021 was €148,142,145 million.
So its not a case of help being made available for Ukrainian refugees, that has not been available to homeless people in Ireland or that this will somehow take funding away from currently homeless people, its two separate issues and both are being addressed.
The reason for continuing homelessness in ireland is not a lack of funding, its a lack of successive governments willingness, to build permanent social housing to replace current temporary accommodation.
@David Van-Standen: stop talking sense… It’s not appreciated on the journal..
@David Van-Standen: What I can’t fathom is why on earth any TD can’t simply make the call and build permanent housing with EU help. They could then be used later for social housing. All these subsidies are going to hotels while tourists can’t get to or from the airport.
@Aileen Lawlor: They will house whoever is next on the list freeing up emergency shelter for the next people.
Hotels cancelling reservations left, right, and centre because they’re getting 4 grand a week per room off the government to house Ukrainians. Twice in 2 weeks it’s happened at last notice to me, and then you’re paying through the teeth for another hotel.
@Ciarán O’ Donoghue: 4 grand a week, €570 a night…. per room. Whichnof your arses did you pull that figure out of?
@Ciarán O’ Donoghue: 100%. If a hotel has a stragety getting rack rates from the government it has to show 1st that they exist. The vast majority of hotels would love to go down this route hense medium hotels charging 350/400 per night when they were 140 average. They cant get staff so managing 50 rooms at 400 is better than 100 rooms at 140. And again no words from the IHF & Bord Failte. Very very quite.
What’s the Government’s fixation with the City West Hotel, first of all they block booked it as a Covid 19 Base, and now they are going to do the same for the Refugees. Who owns this place, and was these transactions done through Open Procurement, or could there be some Brown Envelopes involved.
@Owen G Mc Ginley: a quick Linkedin search shows the Chairman of Tetrarch who own the Citywest to be Paul Donnolly who is currently also a Senior Advisor to Digicel and was previously a non-exec board member of Digicel… never too far from Denis O’Brien in this country.
@Owen G Mc Ginley: It’s the largest hotel in Ireland, nearly 800 rooms, 2 convention centres and a leisure centre. That’s not including the golf hotel
@Owen G Mc Ginley: not whitstanding the other points made above its also extremely accessible from a transport point of view being only minutes from the M50/N7. No matter what the Govt do you can be guaranteed someone is making a tidy wedge from it.
@Owen G Mc Ginley: , down to all the political contacts made by Jim Mansfield over the years, starting with Liam Lawor, there still there
Current Government remind me of the FF/Green Government towards the end of 2020, a total shambles. Minsters have no control of their departments and the recent fiasco in Dublin Airport, to name one of many, proves this point. A General Election is badly needed as soon as possible.
While family carers are means tested for carers allowance and have to fight for medical cards.
@Úna O Connor Barrett: Yawn
And yet 10 000 irish residents are homeless. I completely agree with helping Ukraine, but look after people who reside in the country first. You cant bring in people into the country in order to inflate this figure next year. 10 000 homeless people, 10 000!!!
Money is the currency of power for this government. They love to have large scale expenditures that they use to curry favour for individual party members or for the party themselves. No money going out equals no votes, favours and LBE’s coming back in. They also don’t care, as can be plainly seen here for years and years, on whether they get value for that money spent, that is besides the point. Or to put it simply, CORRUPTION – alive and well for 50+ years and we just watch it slowly destroy the place.
While family carers are means tested for carers allowance and have to fight for medical cards
@Úna O Connor Barrett: One more time.. that will be 5.
Which government minister, TD or senior civil servant owns, part owns or has a financial interest in the Citywest…..in other words who’s pockets are they lining now
They think the war will Last Two years …???? As soon as things are right in Ukraine They should go back…and let the government sort out the homeless problem for a change
Move refugees out of Greater Dublin Area as use the rest of the country that has excess capacity.
Wow bought just before Covid for peanuts, two handy contracts from state that covers that cost more than once. Lucky deal or just lucky
So what happens if there is another scandemic and they need the hotel again for covid ?
@Ken Bramley: Dafuq is a scandemic? Braindead comment!
It’s a disgrace we need to deal with irelands own homeless I can wait till the next genral election fffg are f##ked
A good decision
Considering? This has been known the last 3 months, not Considering, done.
For god sake people of ireland stand up 10000 on the street family’s struggling children going hungry and the government look the other way I’m all for helping any one who needs help these people have been trough hell but many irish have been in hell for a long time bring on the election
Will they get free use of the golf course ?
Is the darts cancelled so?
have your say