HEAT-RELATED DEATHS in Ireland could increase to as many as 1,413 per year this century under high levels of global warming due to climate change, a new study has found.  

The new research has found that deaths due to heat in Europe could triple overall by 2100 as climate change worsens, with the exact impact depending on how much global temperatures rise due to climate change in the coming years.

It also dispels any misconception that climate change could eliminate the problem of people dying due to cold temperatures, instead finding that global warming could mean a small decrease in the number of cold-related deaths but that the toll would still remain high.

The study used data from 854 cities in 30 European countries, including Ireland, to estimate the number of deaths in the future that will be due to hot and cold temperatures.

It found that climate change and ageing populations will widen existing gaps between regions in terms of the mortality risk from heat and cold.

Deaths from heat are expected to increase in all parts of Europe, especially in southern regions, with worst-affected areas including Spain, Italy, Greece and parts of France.

Cold-related deaths are expected to decline slightly by 2100.

If global average temperatures rise by 3 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times, the number of heat-related deaths in Europe could increase from 43,729 to 128,809 by the end of the century.

Deaths due to cold (which are currently higher than from heat) would decrease slightly but remain high, dropping from 363,809 to 333,703 by 2100.

On average between 1990 and 2020, Ireland is estimated to have had one of the lowest rates in Europe of heat-related deaths – around 30 people per year. 

However, that could rise significantly if further action is not taken to prevent global warming. The most likely projected scenario would be 563 heat-related deaths, or 8.2 per 100,000 people, but it depends on the amount of global warming that occurs and could reach as high as 1,413.

If global temperatures rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius on a sustained basis, Ireland could see that number rise to between 81 and 176 deaths each year due to heat.

At 2 degrees of warming, it could rise to between 121 and 298 deaths. At 3 degrees, it could rise to between 269 and 732 deaths. 

And if global temperatures rise by 4 degrees Celsius, the number of people who die in Ireland annually due to heat could be between 472 and 1,413, according to the study.

Additionally, the number of cold-related deaths in Ireland are also projected to potentially increase from 3,974 to up to 7,696 under the most likely scenario (146.8 per 100,000 people) or even up to a potential 9,230.

Cold-related deaths overall are expected to decrease slightly but some countries, including Ireland, are more likely to actually see them increase with global warming, the study has found.

Explaining this finding, Dr Matteo Pinna Pintor of the Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research pointed to “age-dependent vulnerability to cold and with the persistence of a degree of excess mortality risk, notably due to respiratory tract infections and associated complications, over an extended range of so-called mild cold temperatures (approximately 9–18°C)”.

“This means that the mortality burden of exposure to cold in an ageing population will respond slowly to shifts in the temperature distribution,” he said. 

Dr David García-León of the Joint Research Centre at the European Commission, said that the study finds that “deaths in Europe from hot and cold temperatures will rise substantially as many more heat-related deaths are expected to occur as the climate warms and populations age, while deaths from cold decline only slightly in comparison”.

“Our study also identifies hotspots where the risk of death from high temperatures is set to drastically increase over the next decade. There is a critical need for the development of more targeted policies to protect these areas and members of society most at risk from temperature extremes.”

Ireland’s Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has previously released research about projected additional deaths and hospital admissions in Ireland due to high temperatures caused by climate change.