THE GREAT REPLACEMENT theory has captured the imagination of far-right political actors across Europe and the Anglosphere, including here in Ireland. 

The racist conspiracy theory has found expression online, on signs at anti-immigration protests, and in the manifestos of mass murderers. 

Most recently, the theory has been referenced on election posters put up by a grouping of far-right political parties and independent candidates in Ireland called the National Alliance. 

How is it featuring in the general election campaign?

In the last few years, at numerous protests and marches opposing the housing of asylum seekers in towns and cities around Ireland, references to replacement theory have been prominently displayed. 

Now the conspiracy theory is showing up on election posters put up by the National Alliance – a group composed of the National Party, Ireland First and the Irish People party, as well as numerous independent general election candidates.

Replacement theory is also routinely referenced on social media by far-right candidates.

The National Alliance poster referenced above reads: “Replace them before they replace you!” 

The text appears next to a graphic depicting the logos of Irish political parties being thrown in a bin. 

Elsewhere, a National Alliance video promoting independent candidate Cathy Lynch was posted to X on 4 November with the following text:

“Standing for Dún Laoghaire, Independent Nationalist Cathy Lynch has tirelessly challenged the Replacement Migration Policies in East Wall, Newtownmountkennedy, and Eblana Avenue.”

Another far-right Irish party, the Irish Freedom Party, posted on X in October encouraging people to “vote against the new Plantation of Ireland” in the upcoming general election.

In Ireland, those who believe in the theory often refer to the arrival of immigrants and the accommodation of asylum seekers as a “plantation”, a reference to the colonisation of Ireland by Britain in the 16th and 17th centuries. 

The implication is that established Irish parties, often in collusion with elites abroad, are deliberately trying to replace Irish people with foreigners.

This kind of thinking is what leads many far-right activists to call government and opposition party politicians “traitors”, a word that has been scrawled on posters since the election was called.

Far-right groups in Ireland and abroad promote replacement theory because they aim to pit native people against immigrants as if they are in competition with each other for resources and state services. 

An example of this divisive tactic has been seen since Monday’s housing debate on RTÉ’s Upfront programme. 

HOUSING: Irish people are being discriminated against in their own country. We are being treated like second class citizens by this Government. In the #GE24 you will get a chance to put the Irish first. That is justice and common sense. Vote #Irishfreedom 🇮🇪 pic.twitter.com/5gZUuwvWy3

— Irish Freedom Party (@IrexitFreedom) November 12, 2024

The debate featured questions from members of the audience, with two women speaking about their experiences of homelessness.

One was Irish and living in emergency accommodation, while the other was not originally from Ireland and had recently moved into a home.

Far-right parties and individuals have made the baseless claim that this as an example of the government discriminating against Irish people and prioritising foreigners.

Clips from the episode have been posted online with the hashtag #ReplacementMigration, which is commonly used on anti-immigration social media posts. 

Clips of the woman have also been inundated with negative comments from far-right social media accounts, and her image has been shared alongside claims that she has been prioritised at the expense of Irish people.

Where have we seen it before?

The theory already featured in the campaign rhetoric of far-right candidates and parties ahead of the local elections earlier this year. 

On 17 May, the National Party’s X account posted a video of people lining a road in Coole, Co Westmeath, cheering as trucks carrying modular homes left town.

The accompanying text read: 

“Local protestors including National Party members saw off the modular homes being brought into the Plantation Centre in Coole, Co Westmeath today.

“While this is a victory for the local community and the wider Irish people, the plantation pushers will be back.”

In April, people opposed to the accommodation of asylum seekers in Newtownmountkennedy in Wicklow marched through the town led by protesters holding a banner that said: “Ireland is our homeland. We will not be replaced.”

References to the conspiracy theory have also been seen on signs pinned to the gates and walls of refugee accommodation centres around the country.   

What is it?

The “Great Replacement” theory, first popularised by French writer Renaud Camus in 2011, posits that the native (white) people of Europe are being replaced by non-white immigrants, often Arab or African people, and that this is orchestrated by a group of powerful, clandestine elites. 

Camus refers to this as a “genocide by substitution”.

Those who subscribe to the theory see immigrants and their children as an existential threat to the native populations of their adopted home countries. This explains why its adherents are often obsessed with birth rates among white people. 

The theory overlaps with, and is a slightly more palatable version of, the neo-Nazi “white genocide” conspiracy theory, which explicitly says Jews are behind the supposed plot. 

Mattias Ekman, an associate professor at the department of media studies in Stockholm University, who specialises in racist and xenophobic political discourse, said:

“You can’t propagate an idea of white genocide if you’re in mainstream politics. That’s impossible, obviously. But you can actually draw on replacement claims within mainstream politics because it’s much more nuanced and the grey areas are much more visible.”

How is it articulated in Ireland? 

Replacement theory comes in various forms depending on national context. 

While the theory is most common in former imperial nations and settler colonial states, it has found a foothold in Ireland despite this country’s experience of actual colonisation.

“Different countries, different far-right movements are folding the idea of great replacement into their own particular historical narratives, and often those would be contradictory with each other,” says Maynooth University professor of colonial history Dónal Hassett.

In Ireland, those who subscribe to it often use the term “plantation” and argue that “Ireland is full” and “Ireland belongs to the Irish”. 

Buildings used to house refugees are often referred to as “plantations” by members of the Irish far-right fringe. 

The term plantation can strike a particularly resonant chord due to Ireland’s very real history of dispossession and cultural erasure at the hands of British colonialists. 

The plantation is well underway here at #ThorntonWall.

Get political, get active. https://t.co/8vHd704vkp#ThorntohHallSaysNo #SendThemBack pic.twitter.com/kcfuDF7Vxc

— Cllr. Patrick Quinlan (@PQuinlanNP) August 14, 2024

Dónal Hassett says the current system of accommodation for asylum seekers and the historical reality of the plantation of Ireland by the British bear no comparison whatsoever. 

“They’re clearly just not comparable in the sense that plantation involves the confiscation of land and then its reassigning, which is obviously not comparable in any way to the state providing basic social services for asylum seekers or refugees, because it doesn’t require the expulsion of Irish people off their land,” he explains.

Mattias Ekman says that high levels of immigration are not a prerequisite for xenophobic sentiment. 

“Does immigration cause racism or anti-immigration sentiment? Well, it can but it can also be bolstered politically by forces without high levels of immigration. That’s also the case in the Czech Republic and Slovakia.”

Nevertheless, fear of replacement and plantation dominate far right circles in Ireland.

It remains to be seen if the racist conspiracy theory will end up being expressed in the Dáil, although some TDs have flirted with the idea, as it has been in other parliaments around Europe.

But there is a fringe group of activists and new political candidates doing their best to make that happen. 

The consequences of spreading a conspiracy theory that claims the stakes are life and death can be horrific.

In 2014 in Christchurch, New Zealand, a lone gunman opened fire on worshippers at two different mosques during Friday prayers, killing 51 people and leaving another 40 injured. 

The shooter’s manifesto was entitled “The Great Replacement” and it began with the same line written three times: “It’s the birth rates.” 

For a more in-depth explanation of the Great Replacement theory, its history and how it features in Ireland and abroad, visit The Journal’s Kowledge Bank here. 

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