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GOVERNMENT TARGETS FOR housing completions over the next two years will be missed by around 9,000, according to the Banking & Payments Federation Ireland.
The BPFI is the main representative body for the banking and financial services sector.
It has released its Housing Market Monitor for Q4 of 2024 in the same week as the Central Bank issued its first bulletin of 2025, which forecasts that the State’s housing target will be missed by 6,000.
The two reports released this week forecasting more missed housing targets comes amid claims that the government “misled the public” in the run-up to last year’s general election.
The government had set a goal to complete 40,000 homes last year and insisted that this target would be exceeded, but actually fell short by nearly 10,000.
Documents released to Sinn Féin TD Pearse Doherty, under the Freedom of Information Act, showed that a report was sent to then Finance Minister Jack Chambers on 6 November 2024, projecting that the 40,000 target would almost certainly be missed.
The report read: “There were 21,634 new homes completed in the first 9 months of the year, 3.1 per cent lower than the same period in 2023.”
A spokesperson for Chambers said the information released to Doherty “was not new” and that the report was based on projections and publications that were in the public domain.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin last month acknowledged that the housing completion figures last year were “extremely disappointing” but denied that it was a “premeditated attempt to mislead”.
“There was a genuine belief that figures would come in strong in the last quarter,” said Martin. “That did not materialise.”
The government has issued revised housing completion targets of 41,000 this year in its programme for government, up from the 34,600 figure contained in the Housing for All plan.
There are also revised targets for 2026, with a target of 43,000, up from the 36,110 figure in the Housing for All plan.
However, while the Government’s housing completion target for both this year and the next is 84,000, the BPFI forecasts that this figure will actually be around 75,000.
This 75,000 figure from the BPFI is below the Central Bank’s estimate of 78,000.
The BPFI meanwhile noted that based on new population projections, as well as estimated pent-up demand, there is a need to build at least 50,000 homes per year over the next five years.
Speaking to The Journal this week, Tánaiste Simon Harris said housing “predictions and projections are not an exact science”.
Some 30,330 new dwellings were completed last year, with 8,732 coming in the last quarter.
This is a 14.5% decrease on the same quarter in 2023, and a 6.7% decrease across the year.
Dublin accounted for around 37% of completions in Q4 2024, and 72% of apartment completions.
And while housing commencements were up 91.7% in Q4 of last year to 17,017 when compared to 2023, there is a lack of certainty over when these houses will be completed.
The BPFI estimated that at least half of the total number of homes commenced during 2024 were due to the uncertainty about the extension of the development levy waiver in April (which was later extended until December) and water connection charge refund arrangement expiring in September.
It added that the completion date for the units commenced last year, as well as some of the commencements from the end of 2023, will span the two-year period of 2025 and 2026 and result in a total housing output of around 75,000 units in the next two years.
And while the BPFI said it anticipates a “significant increase in output, particularly in the first half of this year”, it also warned that in order to reach the output levels required to meet demand, “key labour, land and capital issues will need to be addressed”.
The BPFI said that unless productivity increases significantly in the residential construction sector, it will not be possible to increase output to the required levels with current employment levels.
While there was a significant increase in employment in the wider sector from around 145,000 at the end of 2019 to over 172,000 in the second half of 2022, these gains stagnated and total employment in the sector was at around 176,000 at the end of 2024.
There was also a decrease in the number of residential units granted planning permission last year, dropping 21% from over 41,000 units in 2023 to 32,000 last year.
This decline was mainly driven by planning permission granted for apartments, which fell by almost 39% last year when compared with 2023, while house approvals were down by 2.7%.
Dublin accounted for almost half (46%) of all apartments granted planning permission in 2024.
However, the total number of apartment planning permissions granted across the four Dublin local authorities declined by nearly 56% in 2024.
And according to data from the Dublin Housing Supply Task Force up to September 2024, around 22,500 units with planning permissions granted but not commenced are set to see their permission expire between 2025 and the end of 2027.
Around 21,000 over these units with permissions set to expire by the end of 2027 are apartments.
The BPFI also warned there are “increasingly signs of delays in securing utility connections, such as water and electricity, for new projects”.
For example, under current capacity, Uisce Éireann (Irish Water) can connect a maximum of 35,000 homes to the network, with further investment required to increase capacity.
Speaking to The Journal this week, Simon Harris said that while he said he did not want to apportion blame to Uisce Éireann, he acknowledged there’s some areas where people can’t get planning permission to build a house due to the lack of water connections.
Meanwhile, the BPFI cautioned that the availability of capital investment is a “significant factor affecting housing output”.
The State’s investment in housing is at historically high levels, increasing from an estimated €1 billion to €6.5 billion over the past decade, and the BPFI said that Ireland’s spending on housing as a percentage of national income is the highest in the EU.
However, the BPFI said that this level of investment “may become unsustainable if the current strong public finances were to deteriorate”.
The Department of Finance has estimated that €20 billion would be required to deliver 50,000 homes per year, and the BPFI said nearly €17 billion of this would need to come from private capital sources.
The BPFI noted that this level of funding is not needed each year, as funding is “recycled in the system with housing projects going through different stages of development”.
And while the PBFI said that Irish banks are already providing significant finance to the housing market, it has called for the “lending capacity of the banking sector to be fully utilised”.
“Instead of State funding competing with private sector capital, there is a need to expand the capacity of the sector by way of risk sharing with the State which is not uncommon in other jurisdictions in order to crowd in other private investors,” said the BPFI.
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Can’t see this 16 year old as being a boh. Especially given the offences. Disgusting.
At least he’s been charged which will be some tiny justice for the mans grieving family.
Name him!
I thought that it was fascinating that the mother was charged with perverting the course of justice. I’m not sure of the details, but I envisage that she is one of those mothers that has a cut off the principle when teachers try to discipline her child, which is probably why he thought he could get away with it. Offences in school need to be treated in the same manner as offences on the street or we’ll end up with the same problems as the UK. ‘Bullies’ should be referred to an Garda Siochana for assault or intimidation. Student with fireworks and bangers are in possession of illegal explosives and should be referred to police also. We’ve let society get out of hand and have not been responsible in protecting the innocent from thugs.
This was a failure of by the mother in teaching her son right and wrong, as well as a failure of the state to take an active interest in the upbringing of children. If the parents can’t or won’t perform the repsonsibilities, the state must do it for them.
Not sure how public education works in Ireland or the U.K., but maybe there should be the adoption of police departments dedicated to the school system, and take student discipline from the principal, teacher, parent, etc.
In many places in the U.S., there are police empowered by the school districts to guard school property and “police” the students. Depending on the severity of the infraction, they can issue a fine against the parents, refer the students removal to an alternative discipline school, or go further to refer the students to the state for formal charges.
If that system were in place, maybe this kid would not have been free to murder.
have your say