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GOVERNMENT TARGETS FOR housing completions over the next two years will be missed by around 9,000, according to the Banking & Payments Federation Ireland.
The BPFI is the main representative body for the banking and financial services sector.
It has released its Housing Market Monitor for Q4 of 2024 in the same week as the Central Bank issued its first bulletin of 2025, which forecasts that the State’s housing target will be missed by 6,000.
The two reports released this week forecasting more missed housing targets comes amid claims that the government “misled the public” in the run-up to last year’s general election.
The government had set a goal to complete 40,000 homes last year and insisted that this target would be exceeded, but actually fell short by nearly 10,000.
Documents released to Sinn Féin TD Pearse Doherty, under the Freedom of Information Act, showed that a report was sent to then Finance Minister Jack Chambers on 6 November 2024, projecting that the 40,000 target would almost certainly be missed.
The report read: “There were 21,634 new homes completed in the first 9 months of the year, 3.1 per cent lower than the same period in 2023.”
A spokesperson for Chambers said the information released to Doherty “was not new” and that the report was based on projections and publications that were in the public domain.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin last month acknowledged that the housing completion figures last year were “extremely disappointing” but denied that it was a “premeditated attempt to mislead”.
“There was a genuine belief that figures would come in strong in the last quarter,” said Martin. “That did not materialise.”
The government has issued revised housing completion targets of 41,000 this year in its programme for government, up from the 34,600 figure contained in the Housing for All plan.
There are also revised targets for 2026, with a target of 43,000, up from the 36,110 figure in the Housing for All plan.
However, while the Government’s housing completion target for both this year and the next is 84,000, the BPFI forecasts that this figure will actually be around 75,000.
This 75,000 figure from the BPFI is below the Central Bank’s estimate of 78,000.
The BPFI meanwhile noted that based on new population projections, as well as estimated pent-up demand, there is a need to build at least 50,000 homes per year over the next five years.
Speaking to The Journal this week, Tánaiste Simon Harris said housing “predictions and projections are not an exact science”.
Some 30,330 new dwellings were completed last year, with 8,732 coming in the last quarter.
This is a 14.5% decrease on the same quarter in 2023, and a 6.7% decrease across the year.
Dublin accounted for around 37% of completions in Q4 2024, and 72% of apartment completions.
And while housing commencements were up 91.7% in Q4 of last year to 17,017 when compared to 2023, there is a lack of certainty over when these houses will be completed.
The BPFI estimated that at least half of the total number of homes commenced during 2024 were due to the uncertainty about the extension of the development levy waiver in April (which was later extended until December) and water connection charge refund arrangement expiring in September.
It added that the completion date for the units commenced last year, as well as some of the commencements from the end of 2023, will span the two-year period of 2025 and 2026 and result in a total housing output of around 75,000 units in the next two years.
And while the BPFI said it anticipates a “significant increase in output, particularly in the first half of this year”, it also warned that in order to reach the output levels required to meet demand, “key labour, land and capital issues will need to be addressed”.
The BPFI said that unless productivity increases significantly in the residential construction sector, it will not be possible to increase output to the required levels with current employment levels.
While there was a significant increase in employment in the wider sector from around 145,000 at the end of 2019 to over 172,000 in the second half of 2022, these gains stagnated and total employment in the sector was at around 176,000 at the end of 2024.
There was also a decrease in the number of residential units granted planning permission last year, dropping 21% from over 41,000 units in 2023 to 32,000 last year.
This decline was mainly driven by planning permission granted for apartments, which fell by almost 39% last year when compared with 2023, while house approvals were down by 2.7%.
Dublin accounted for almost half (46%) of all apartments granted planning permission in 2024.
However, the total number of apartment planning permissions granted across the four Dublin local authorities declined by nearly 56% in 2024.
And according to data from the Dublin Housing Supply Task Force up to September 2024, around 22,500 units with planning permissions granted but not commenced are set to see their permission expire between 2025 and the end of 2027.
Around 21,000 over these units with permissions set to expire by the end of 2027 are apartments.
The BPFI also warned there are “increasingly signs of delays in securing utility connections, such as water and electricity, for new projects”.
For example, under current capacity, Uisce Éireann (Irish Water) can connect a maximum of 35,000 homes to the network, with further investment required to increase capacity.
Speaking to The Journal this week, Simon Harris said that while he said he did not want to apportion blame to Uisce Éireann, he acknowledged there’s some areas where people can’t get planning permission to build a house due to the lack of water connections.
Meanwhile, the BPFI cautioned that the availability of capital investment is a “significant factor affecting housing output”.
The State’s investment in housing is at historically high levels, increasing from an estimated €1 billion to €6.5 billion over the past decade, and the BPFI said that Ireland’s spending on housing as a percentage of national income is the highest in the EU.
However, the BPFI said that this level of investment “may become unsustainable if the current strong public finances were to deteriorate”.
The Department of Finance has estimated that €20 billion would be required to deliver 50,000 homes per year, and the BPFI said nearly €17 billion of this would need to come from private capital sources.
The BPFI noted that this level of funding is not needed each year, as funding is “recycled in the system with housing projects going through different stages of development”.
And while the PBFI said that Irish banks are already providing significant finance to the housing market, it has called for the “lending capacity of the banking sector to be fully utilised”.
“Instead of State funding competing with private sector capital, there is a need to expand the capacity of the sector by way of risk sharing with the State which is not uncommon in other jurisdictions in order to crowd in other private investors,” said the BPFI.
Enough now of private builders, time to build homes on public land.
Like in the 70s. Everyone got a home to raise their families.even when the country was broke.
@Colette Byrne: I wish people would stop going on about public housing that was built in the 70’s…..90% of it is wrecked,67% are in arrears on what is tiny rent and the maintenance bill for the upkeep is huge….people go on as if it was a huge success,it was and still is not…second point is,let’s say we have 50000 builders in the country and we set up a state building company..where do the builders come from?yes,from the private sector and we would still have 50k builders,and we all know how public infrastructure works in the country,less houses would be built and it would cost 20 times more!
@Colette Byrne: Homes were built in the 40s, 50s, and 60s, by local authorities across the country, those that got them and reared families in them paid rent went out to work and earned a living and didn’t expect to live in them rent free, we now have a certain element in the country that think it’s their divine right to a house without having to make an effort to pay for it.
@Colette Byrne: Ffg want everything to go to the 1% They learned from the British to bend the knee , and them and thiers will be minded
@Leonard Barry: with the emphasis on “a certain element”. As for those that think it is all free, it is not. Only thing that is cheaper is the rent, all other bills are exactly the same as any other person living in Ireland.
@peter willekens: BTW, that is a rent that is affordable, not the one where you pay 2000 euros for the shed in the back garden a month.
@John Paul:
67% are in arrears, where are getting your information from.
@peter willekens: Plenty of that certain element are also way behind on their bills and get a host of other things and benefits completely free compared to the rest of us and medical cards.
@Thomas O’Brien: Google total amount of people percentage wise in council housing in arrears….its 67% and last time I looked it was 120 million.
@John Paul:
Google shouldn’t have that information because it infringes on people’s privacy and GDPR. Your definition of council housing is out of date, as lots of council houses are privately owned. You need to get off your high horse and stop looking down on people less fortunate than yourself.
@John Paul: And I wish people would stop saying we have a shortage of trades. If we had started incentivising people into trades 10 years ago we wouldn’t have that problem now. Your post reads like a long list of reasons not to do anything. You should get a job with FFG and you can come back in 5 years time to tell us how this can’t be fixed over night.
@John Paul: well thats not true. The biggest issue with the houses built in the 60s/70s alot of them where sold to the tenants
Need to build high rise apartments for social and affordable and council housing
@Rian O’Sullivan: They tried it in Ballymun and had to go back to the drawing board. Some people are not able to share public spaces, lifts etc. What works in private developments won’t work in state dependent communities.
@Rian O’Sullivan: social housing shouldn’t exist
@thomas molloy: Well then tough they live in squalor they get their chance if they don’t take it tough. Game over.
@Joe Willis: Tents?
Why can’t the Government just admit that they’re would be a lot more housing built if they stopped narrowing down roads in cities and towns for vanity cycle lanes that aren’t even being used or the BIG MASSIVE footpaths….
@Tommy: we need massive footpaths we have one of the most obese populations in the world
We’ll get the usual, not enough builders ect ect. If that’s the problem, stop setting silly targets. Say it for what it is. Alas Fffg can’t handle the truth..
@Paul Gorry: who can?
@Oh Mammy: Who can’t?
@Paul Gorry: Silly targets like the opposition throw out!…I’m an electrician and working over 30 years and I’ve never seen such a shortage of every trade….too many choices for young fellows now and working on a wet January on a building site is not attractive to most.Plus I know lots of Eastern European lads have gone home because there is work at home now for them.People like you hate facts and believe exactly the nonsense that the opposition throw out that it’s easy to fix everything.
@John Paul: So you’ve totally missed my point. Why offer targets that will never be achieved? It’s absolutely nothing to do with the opposition. And just to add, ye said on another article yesterday ( Thursday) you were “35: years in the building trade. Make your mind up troll…
@Paul Gorry: my question is respectful. Please answer.
@Oh Mammy: My question with respect @ Oh Mammy is who’s in government and failing us in 2025? It’s definitely not the opposition,as much as your silly mind believes it might be.
@Oh Mammy: Tom thinks he can, Jack disagrees..
@Paul Gorry: I said over 30 years……I’m an electrician(qualified 33 years ago)but obviously worked before that on building sites….and I didn’t miss your point.You moaned about’silly targets’…..Sf said everyone would get a house for 150k.How silly is that!
@John Paul: Here we go again. SF, is there any article that SF has had no hand in causing the problem to be left out of being accused of telling lies. Who’s to say they wouldn’t squander money like the shower we have and subsided the houses. We’ll never know until people take the blinkers off and let them have a chance. I don’t know if SF will be better than Mehole and Slymball, but it’s hard to believe that anything could be worse.
@Paul Harte: under Sf nobody would work and it would turn into a complete socialist society where there would be more handouts. The problem in Ireland is that we don’t have any proper parties actually working for the people of Ireland they are just in it for themselves and I think everybody knows that at this stage , that’s the thing in Ireland. We have to keep voting for the same people over and over and expecting a different result. We just need to abolish all these parties and get fresh thinking fresh minded people business minded people people who can actually do a proper job and we can get value for money that would be my take on it otherwise we’re just gonna be talking about this for the next 20 years when nothing will be done to improve the situation
@John Paul: Ahhh, it’s the shinners’ fault john paul. Silly me.
@Bren: We’ll never know while the narrow-minded people change. I’m not saying SF is the answer, but one fact is that voting the same shower in time after time is certainly not the answer. No, we don’t have proper parties working for the people, but we do have the current shower who is nothing but wasters and has been for as long as I can remember and I’m voting over 40 yrs. WE NEED TO GET RID OF THIS SHOWER.
@Bren: Yeah nobody would work. Everything in society will just magically take care of itself. Jaysus some white spouted on here.
If they stop turning every vacant building into ipas centres and make apartments or houses would help
@John Kenny: a good comment that’s exactly a good point
@John Kenny: Why did we never care about the homeless before immigration?
In a bold new initiative aimed at solving the housing crisis,the Government has decided to issue Wendy Houses to all young adults.
@Patrick Westman: Amazing what they can do, Wendy really put their minds to it…
A lot of yanks now looking at this country to buy property.This will no doubt drive up the price of houses further.Also people from climate affected countries looking towards Ireland.FFG need to prioritize our own citizens or we will be overwhelemed with foreigners.
@Willie Marty: As do Irish people returning from Dubai and the like or Dubliners moving west.
Don’t worry, the two d!ckhe@ds running the country said housing is their number one priority, and not to trust these forecasts as it’s not a real science – all that’s needed is something ‘disruptive’, apparently… my god we are really doomed, wonder will there be room in the IPAS centres for us when there’s nowhere left to live
@Ethan Gannon: No, there won’t be room for the Irish anywhere. Just look at what’s happening that man in Tipp, and that should tell you what they think of the Irish who try not to be a burden to the state and help themselves.
@Ethan Gannon: Housing is not in crisis. 65% of Irish people already have one.
How thick are FFGers. They have been in power since the foundation of the state. Record homelessness, spiralling poverty levels amongst young people. Record hospital waiting lists. This is FFGs record. It’s not the oppositions fault.
@Daniel Gilroy: FF with the cooperation of FG are the cause of the growing pains of their successful management. As Ireland will keep growing they need to prepare for more growth but stop guessing randomly.
@thomas molloy: As I said, thick as the preverbial.
If you don’t vote or keep voting for the ffg entitled wasters Look in the mirror there you will find the reason for all your issues
@Robert Halvey: Change the record.No one believes the fairy tales of Sf/ira or the other student union politicians that are in the dail….Sf promised to give everyone a house for 150k(how deluded is that)
@John Paul: How deluded are you to think it couldn’t be done. 1st off, they could be subsided by the government. Maybe SF would spend the money more wisely than the current shower. Who knows ? I do know we’ll never know because of the narrow mindness of people who aren’t willing to give them a chance but still vote in the same old same and expect things to change. They haven’t changed in the last century and got away with it. You can see the smugness in Meholes and Slymballs face now that well we got away with it and nothing can be done about it. I can’t stand McGregor, but he opened people’s eyes to what is going on, and they are running crap less because he told it as it is. People need to wake up. Time to wake up to what we have
@Paul Harte: for 100% but the problem is people won’t wake up. They like to complain about it but they don’t want to find a solution and they keep defending our current shower of circus clowns
@Paul Harte: so the government are going to subsidize house buying so prices are 150k, on a rough calculation you would be looking at a subsidy of around 200k per house or 10 billion extra taxes per year to pay for it. It’s policies like this that have SF sitting on the sidelines again.
The next small thing: Well, unless you have been asleep, the price of actually building a house hasn’t gone up that much, actually. It’s the profit margins have hit the roof. I’d a lot of builders are covering their backside in case things go belly up again
@Paul Harte: both materials and labour costs have increased massively over the last few years. If the profit is so good why don’t the opposition parties start a building company/coop and go and build these houses and show up the government? Imagine how many more votes they would get with practical evidence rather than the usual rhetoric.
The next small thing: And didn’t one party suggest that, but it was shot down by the current shower. Look, I’m not saying I know how to fix the problem, but I’m not elected or paid enough to try and fix it. One thing that is for sure is the things that are elected and paid way too much to try and fix it have failed, and yet people still think they’ll do it and believe the lies they spin to get back to do nothing again yourself included.
Any wonder the birthrate is nearly on par with death rate. This is a crisis.
Need council homes 100% not 10%new builds
@sam o brien: need affordable homes for those who work, not free ones for those that won’t work
@Johnny Wilson: yur wrong..people in council houses who do work.
Oh Christ I’m getting a mcgregor on me
@Altoir: Stick him in a ” choke hold.” Sorted..
Sick of this Sh@# I’ve told my 4 kids to go elsewhere and pay their taxes all college educated .
They’ll not be able to live in this country or afford a house for the foreseeable future , all teachers and nurses. Go and enjoy life instead of just living to pay bills in a country that does care about them.
@Dave O Neill: Go where?….Britain/canada/australia/usa all have similar/worse situations.
@Dave O Neill: and I bet all your kids were educated for way less than any of the countries i mentioned….but hey,people like you think everything should be free/next to it.
@Dave O Neill: it’s next to impossible for young people to get a home there really is no hope for them unless thyre earning a fortune or come from well off family it’s a disgrace.
No surprise there.
I know a few other things that aren’t an “exact science”. Yet I wasn’t elected to do something about it……
Of course they’ll miss it. There are not enough trades people in the country to build that many houses.
The only people that vote for ffg gombeens are the senile old sheeple that can’t seem to phantom that these parties consist of useless corrupt politicians
@Brian Molloy: And the only people who vote for Sf are layabout armchair republicans….thankfully not too many of them to get them into government and no other party wants to work with them.
No way… really… didn’t see that coming
Because blondie Karen doesn’t want any feckin foreigners in the country while indulging in cheap crappy fries from her local Chinese, thousands of skilled foreigners in trades are leaving Ireland anually.
@Chris: Great hopefully they all go
SF free houses no work for everyone
What has Basketball got to do with this?
@Pat Barry: Oh I get it, missing the target, a bit of a tenuous link.
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