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THE YEAR 2017 was one of “two halves” according to two comprehensive reports into the residential property market.
The last quarter of the year saw “almost no change in the average asking price”, a situation that was also reflected in the third quarter of 2017. In contrast, the first half of the year saw average prices rise nationwide by almost 9%.
Ronan Lyons, assistant professor in Economics in Trinity College Dublin, and author of this morning’s Daft.ie report, said that the trend might seem peculiar but was in fact directly linked to the impact of Central Bank mortgage rules that came into effect this year.
At the beginning of 2017, minimum deposit rules were relaxed from 20% to 10%. This, said Lyons, “spawned an almost immediate price response in the market” but that once this change to credit lines had been absorbed, the rules kicked in. With incomes rising only very modestly, the minimum deposit rules still act as a cooler in a market with limited supply.
The MyHome.ie report for Q4 of 2017 echoed the sentiment that the Central Bank lending rules were pivotal to the slower pace of price rises towards the end of the year. It also cited seasonal trends for the contrast between the two halves of the year.
There was still a small climb in prices in Dublin from July to December but this was cancelled out on a national basis by a slight decline outside urban areas.
Prices took a leap overall in 2017
Overall, however, 2017 was a year of “robust” inflation in the residential market - MyHome had prices rising by 10.2% nationally and 11.1% in Dublin. Daft.ie saw an 11.7% hike in asking prices in Dublin between Q4 2016 and Q4 2017 – and 9.3% nationally. This meant that over a 12-month period to end of 2017, house prices rose on average more than they did during 2016 (8%) or 2015 (8.5%).
The average asking price is up 47% overall from its lowest point in Q3 of 2013. This represented a jump of over €20,000 on average per home in 2017, according to Daft.ie.
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So where does that leave buyers in 2018?
Ronan Lyons cautions that some 20 areas across Ireland – particularly in Dublin, Limerick and Cork cities – are within a year or two of reaching the average asking prices they commanded at the 2007 peak of the Celtic Tiger.
“However… it’s not only South County Dublin. Areas like Raheny, Stoneybatter, Lucan and Kimmage are as close to their peak as areas like Milltown, Clontarf or Castleknock. And it’s not just Dublin too. In North Limerick City, prices are less than 20% from their peak while in Cork City, Ballincollig prices are just 22% of peak,” he writes in today’s report.
The main point of this is to show that demand is still very much focused around cities. With Ireland due to move its population from “65% urban to 80% or 85% over the coming few decades”, this implies further pressure on an already in-demand urban property market. Lyons writes:
If we as a country get that wrong, we will be stuck in a sprawl model, with implications for family life and environmental sustainability, as well as for the housing market.
MyHome.ie managing director Angela Keegan said that there was an increase by 10% of transactions in the housing market in 2017 and this is a positive thing. However, this comes to around 55,000 transactions in the year. She warned:
If the Irish market was functioning properly we would be seeing around 90,000 transactions per year.
By the end of 2017, MyHome.ie found that they had just 18,900 properties listed for sale – “a fresh record low, down 9.4% on the year – representing less than 1% of the housing stock”. Homes are therefore being snapped up quickly (over a third of properties listed for sale in Dublin are gone within two months) and at a premium.
Chief Economist at Davy Stockbrokers, Conall MacCoille, and author of the MyHome report sounded a positive note for those in negative equity, the numbers of whom have reduced due to the rise in average property values. “With greater equity in their homes, more Irish households will seek to move home, helping housing market activity,” he predicted.
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The council should be reported to the EU and have their funding withdrawn until remedies are taken. Appalling behaviour.
@Dream Of Jennie: No, the already under funded council have to contend with on a weekly basis the cleaning up of the parks and public thorough fairs in its constituency due to the irresponsible users of the amenities, trash is rampant after every weekend in these places( way to many to name) there are enough empty cans and bottles you could stack ‘em all and they’d reach the moon. Blockading them albeit probably fair would create a lot of municipal problems on an already strained infrastructure.
@Dream Of Jennie: They assumed responsibility which is more than most government departments or state funded bodies would do. They will restore it and life will return to it. It is not lost forever.
@Thomas: sorry, but it’s not as simple as that. Ecosystems are not that easy to restore, particularly when so well destroyed as in this instance. Looks like somebody thought of the simple engineering solution, not the environmental one!
@Thomas: I guess you are a council employee then!
@Thomas: the animals living in the wetlands weren’t offered temporary housing before their homes and food sources were destroyed! Where do you think they are? Even if the silt is removed (an incredibly difficult thing to do) most of the plants and animals making up the site are already dead.
All to save a few grand in dumping fees. No 1 someone needs to loose there job over this. No 2 it’s goes to show you how much South Dublin county council cares about the residents in tallaght. No 3 not a thought for Mother Nature. Jesus I am livid. Someone will burn for this.
@HONEY BADGER180: I am fuming I am after throwing a bowl of good soup at the kitchen wall. She’s going to burn me now. Jesus how could this happen
@HONEY BADGER180: back to work no lunch now. I hope the person who signed off on this gets burned hoop for a month
@HONEY BADGER180: Lose their job… This is the public service, no chance.. Big pension instead..
@MickN: and a promotion too most likely
@Eric Davies: maybe the next Health Minister. After all the present one got the job with zero qualifications.
@HONEY BADGER180: The residents more than likely put the “in excess of 40 tonnes of illegally dumped rubbish” in the lake in the first place
@Peter Buchanan: it’s often “residents” who illegally dump rubbish. If you specifically mean the people beside the lakes in question I suggest you learn how rivers work. Also no residents of anywhere caused the silt build up in the lakes so I’m really not sure of the relevance of your comment to the destruction of a natural habitat.
@HONEY BADGER180: I hope your right.
While Varadkar tells the UN to impose carbon taxes on us to protect the environment. There’s no consistency of communication in any area of govt.
@SmidgenDublin: he’ll fly around the world in the government jet, with his ‘disappointed’ demeanour, while chucking world class levels of guilt at everyone. This while he is the leader of the worst country in EU for tackling emissions.
@Artugal: while he’s in new York see all the SUVs driving around those big V8s leo tax the irish for other countries indulgence
Somebody needs to lose a job over this.
@Sean: This is Ireland, the land of no accountability. John Delaney is still on the FAI payroll FFS!
Given that we have declared a climate emergency and are in the midst of an extinctions crisis, all parkland and public land management needs to be done in conjunction with ecologists for minimum disruption to wildlife.
Public space can and should be managed for both people and nature.
@Tom Jordan: They actually claim to be following”best practice” in their destructi… sorry, management of this area, but fail to cite what exactly this is.
It’s more than bizarre that they were actively engaged with experts about the area, appeared to have reached an agreement, then ignored it. You’d be forgiven for thinking it’s destruction was the desired result from the outset.
Political sound bites have changed towards the environment but the attitudes haven’t. South Dublin council is controlled by FG and FF, hopefully folks remember that in the ballot box.
@Rochelle: SDCC is controlled by independents (6) and SF (6) making up 50% of the crew
@Tony Harris: who makes up the other 50% ?
@Eric Davies: 1’s and 2’s from all the other party’s
@Tony Harris: Wikipedia says council control is with FF + FG + Greens and 1 Independent.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Dublin_County_Council
@Rochelle: The ‘council’ in this case means the public servant employees in the executive, not the elected councillors. Your local county councillor doesn’t sit in an office signing off on orders to take silt out of lakes.
@Rochelle: And who if not FG or FF do you recommend they vote for?
So they remove it and dump it near by? Doesn’t make sense.
@Bobby McLoughlin: I may be somewhat cynical in my old age, but will this essentil de-silting and cleaning of the area by the local council result in the it being rezoned, sold off to a developer and built upon.
@Arch Angel: That’s the conclusion I came to.Something not quite right about this.
So dredge the rubbish up and then dump it near by as is? Seems like a lazy solution. How is that best practice?
@Bobby McLoughlin: County Council and Best Practice?
That’s a good one.
@Fozz: its what they claim in their statement
@Bobby McLoughlin: Seems that they dredged up muck, picked out the rubbish and then put the silt back beside where it came from. Not defending it, but it does look like crossed lines rather than malice- the average machine driver mightnt necessarily recognise an important habitat.
@George Salter: Did they pick the rubbish out though? Videos I have seen still looked to have rubbish in the silt
@Bobby McLoughlin: I have no idea. There is a level of diminishing returns involved, in general.
Just half-arsed promises as usual. This is sickening! SDCC needs to be held accountable for this and a definitive plan of action outlined/ money made available to regenerate the wetlands. Anything less is NOT acceptable and is a complete disgrace.
Action please, not words!
@Jen Sandford: It’s utterly absurd that the council decide to take it upon themselves to “enhance” this area with out consulting anyone, this is done by destroying it.
There, doesn’t it look much better now lads?
While we have a leader trying to convince the world of our Green credentials, this is the real Ireland back home. Pitiful.
Heard an interview with someone from the HIS on the radio this morning. This wetland was only discovered a few years ago as it didnt exist previously. He was saying the theory as to how it formed was in fact the dumping of silt waste at that location previously. Doesn’t excuse in any way what happened but at least gives reassurance that the site maybe recoverable
@Vocal Outrage: Errr, shouldn’t the “Herpetological Society of Ireland” be the HSI and not the HIS…?
Check out my Twitter I have pics from my drone of them doing it
Who cares about nature. Job well done in my book!
@Socky Varadkar: your book is Ann and Barry so that tells us everything about you.
@Socky Varadkar: feeble troll.
@Paul Whitehead: don’t insult trolls!
Large site for sale only councillors friends need apply . FPP for dog box apartments .
Sure the councils next target is 10 hectares of woodland and wetlands near Saggart. Zoned residential and to be bulldozed for housing. Is it any wonder that biodiversity is declining faster in Ireland than any other country in Europe?!
@Lorraine Mac Rory: I’m sorry but housing trumps biodiversity at the moment!
SDCC removed all the silt and illegally dumped rubbish and…..
……..Illegally dumped it?
It seems from the picture that the wetland was dry. If we wet it again it would destroy all the ecology that existed there
The very same thing done to our beaches. The rubbish is gathered and then buried on the beach for the tide to take care of. Utter disgrace!
They should be charged over this and serve a sentence also. Let this one go and they will do it again.
Imagine a farmer doing this?
opw made a mess of the pitches in Na Piarsaigh GAA limerick yet nothing about it since as to who will be brought to account either.
Idiots. Name names. Who authorised this
You can’t build on silt…..
have your say