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Why Ireland’s official housing targets are (probably) way off the mark

The way the Government comes up with its targets may not hold up well under scrutiny.

IF THERE’S ONE thing the government loves, its targets. Jobs targets. Growth targets. But lately, housing targets take the biscuit.

Understandable, when thousands of potential voters are disenfranchised and stuck living with their parents due to years of surging prices.

That’s why the new housing completions target one of the most important, one that cuts to the heart of possibly finally solving the housing crisis.

Most experts agree that supply and demand are out of sync. So logically, you have to focus on getting lots of new housing supply.

It’s the centre of the government’s ‘Housing for All’ plan, published in 2021.

It aims to increase the number of new homes being built to an average of 33,000 per year between 2022 and 2030, in the hope that this eventually makes property more affordable.

But there is a big problem with the housing targets – before we even begin, we’re starting at the wrong place.

And if the housing targets are wrong, it means the government’s key response to the housing crisis could go wrong too.

A recently published report, commissioned by Fianna Fáil MEP Barry Andrews and carried out by Brussels-based group Housing Europe, lays out a critical piece of the puzzle.

Looking at the period between 2011 and 2022, it estimates Ireland should have built 345,000 homes to meet demand.

Instead, just 163,000 were delivered – leaving a shortfall of 182,000.

This matches up with estimates from the Central Bank. In a report published in 2019, the organisation said Ireland should have built about 27,000 homes a year to meet demand. But what we actually built was an average of 10,500 homes per year, leaving a big gap which has been growing every year.

Now, so what? You might ask. It’s hardly news that Ireland hasn’t been building enough homes.

The problem is, while everyone knows this, it isn’t factored into the Housing for All estimates.

“They look at it fresh every year,” says Dara Turnbull, the author of the Housing Europe report.

“They assume, in year one of the housing plan, that everyone who needs a house has one. They don’t say ‘We’re basing this on population growth, plus the 182,000 that we also need.

That’s one of the biggest flaws in the methodology – it ignores the existing unmet need for housing.

So the result of this is that even if the government hits its Housing for All targets, there would still be a shortfall of 182,000 homes which was never addressed.

“It’s fundamental,” Turnbull says.

Fair enough they have to start somewhere, but even if we hit all the targets, there will still be an unmet need for housing. So the projections are unfit for purpose.

Census data

This isn’t even factoring in other problems. The Housing for All targets were based on 2016 census data. But the 2022 census shows the population is growing much more than expected, making the assumptions based on the 2016 figures outdated.

To be clear – increasing to delivering 33,000 new homes a year under Housing for All is still better than building fewer than that.

A study published last year by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) found that increasing building to this level should help calm price inflation.

But, with that 182,000 shortfall keeping demand high, prices could still rise, just at a slower rate. So it’s no guarantee that housing will become more affordable.

There are signs the government recognises this. In a statement to The Journal, the Department of Housing said: “A review and refresh of housing targets has commenced. The work will be underpinned by independent research by the ESRI.

While this work is carried out, the Department of Housing and Minister remain committed to reaching, and where possible exceeding, the targets set out under Housing for All.

How many homes needed

So how many homes do we actually need to be building?

Unpublished research by the Housing Commission, first reported in the Irish Times earlier this year, suggested Ireland should actually be aiming for between 42,000 and 62,000 homes annually.

While this is nearly double the current targets, it follows comments from figures such as the Minister for Housing recognising the numbers have to go up.

It seems pretty certain the population rise from the latest Census will be taken into account. But will that 182,000 backlog built up over the last decade factor in as well?

As of now, that isn’t as clear. And if the shortfall isn’t factored in, the new numbers could have similar problems as the current ones.

But while plenty of numbers are thrown around for housing targets, in the end, what does all of this matter?

The reason there’s so much debate around these numbers is that getting them right is at the heart of dealing with Ireland’s housing crisis.

“What’s measured is what is acted on,” says Turnbull.

“If you’re just not counting properly, then how can policymakers effectively deal with the housing crisis if you have this elephant in the room of the 182,000 shortfall?

“Imagine you have a €100 debt. One week you pay back €50, but then you also run up another €50 debt, so effectively you’re in the same place. You never get to €0. That’s what we have here.

But people don’t care about the numbers. They just care ‘Can my son or daughter get out of their childhood home? Can they afford a house?’ So if we take that shortfall into the real world – the result is that the status quo will hold.

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49 Comments
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    Mute Furious George - The Wasp
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    Jul 30th 2023, 9:54 AM

    Government policy is to allow investment funds own property and the public to become renters
    Also to increase house prices to ensure banks remain in strong position
    They gain more tax while these two aims are fulfilled. Their targets are below what is needed so matters not whether they are reacher not. The government policy is not In the public interest. They do not serve the Irish people. We are seen as consumers not citizens. This is why there is no right to housing in Ireland. Unless your a refugee or asylum of course as the government has stated we have to meet our international obligations. This is not racist btw , its what the government has said.

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    Mute 9QRixo8H
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    Jul 30th 2023, 1:05 PM

    Capitalism relies on less supply for more demand. Drop the supply of houses (which FG done), house demand increases and house value increases. It suits those who have. Housing can’t be for everyone. As long as housing is under FFG’s capitalist model. Which results clearly show after 12 years in power. Compare that to the mass building of houses decades ago when Ireland were ‘poor’.

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    Mute Daddy or Chips?
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    Jul 30th 2023, 1:17 PM

    @9QRixo8H: Government interference in the housing market is not capitalism, it is socialism. So you are complaining about capitalism while confusing it for socialism and suggesting more socialist policies are the answer. You want the government to “provide” housing for everyone but the government does not provide anything! It only distributes tax payer funds (badly) and then says oh look how great we are for providing stuff! It’s farcical. If they wanted to actually help, they would interfere less, remove barriers for people, planning etc and stop giving preferential treatment, loans and subsidies to developer oligarchs.

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    Mute Roj Blake
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    Jul 30th 2023, 2:20 PM

    @Furious George – The Wasp: not racist? Your drivel is precisely that.

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    Mute Roj Blake
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    Jul 30th 2023, 3:27 PM

    @9QRixo8H: FG have been in power for 12 years, FF haven’t, and changes having a FF Minister for Housing is clear in the huge investment in housing since June 2020

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    Mute Furious George - The Wasp
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    Jul 30th 2023, 3:49 PM

    @Roj Blake: where have I mentioned race ?? I am talking about housing policy and asylum seekers at the end. Any person can claim asylum. Do you think all asylum seekers are one race or something??

    37
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    Mute michael mcsharry
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    Jul 31st 2023, 1:29 AM

    @9QRixo8H: No, the enemy is “rentier” capitalism. The ability of foreign capital to be introduced / promoted by a neo liberal government like ours into a tight rental or purchase market to create profits based only on the mismatch between supply and demand – and then to have those profits exported to the capital owning / manipulation classes in foreign countries for their benefit not ours. All this in the name of free competition for resources, which of course most people in the countries, like Ireland, adhering to the so called “Washington Consensus” do not have.
    Few if any builders in Ireland are willing or able to produce good quality housing for less than 250,000 euros. Yet local authorities (when they are allowed to by central government) can and do regularly produce housing for rent at these prices. There is absolutely nothing stopping our government directing it’s housing policy towards allowing more public housing to be built for rent and for sale (to income and wealth assessed applicants) – as was done in Dublin in the 1970′s and 80′s. The reason it’s not done is entirely ideological – the fear that if we stop parasitic foreign investors buying into our “honeypot” government designed and approved housing crisis to keep supply low and demand high then we might jeopardise our imagined international status as a country open to investment from whatever source, wherever. We are after all the country where money laundering schemes deemed too hot for the City of London were routinely passed here in Ireland a decade ago. How nuch has changed. Not much I would say.

    7
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    Mute Davy
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    Jul 30th 2023, 8:38 AM

    Corruption and Lies.
    Propaganda by RTE wholesale telling these lies.
    Way worse than FFG want you to understand.

    344
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    Mute GoodBrother
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    Jul 30th 2023, 9:45 AM

    So nonstop house building but 0 infrastructure, no improvement to public transport? Oh and they want less cars as well? How are people supposed to come and go to these new builds?

    221
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    Mute michael mcsharry
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    Jul 31st 2023, 1:42 AM

    @GoodBrother: er….bicycles. My 1992 BMW motorcycle instruction book suggests that for journeys less 10km I should ditch their motorcycle and just ride a bike. Of course this was from a time when people and businesses actually cared about the climate and environment, as opposed to just pretending that they do, or did. So obviously it does not apply to our present reality.

    4
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    Mute A F
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    Jul 30th 2023, 10:13 AM

    Very much working out as intended for the government. A complete disaster for young people. New government very much required….no more FF/FG, we need a breath of fresh air!

    217
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    Mute brian o'leary
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    Jul 30th 2023, 10:23 AM

    @A F: fresh air won’t build houses.

    33
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    Mute Nialler Quinlan
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    Jul 30th 2023, 11:10 AM

    @brian o’leary: Therefore FFG = Fresh Air

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    Mute Roj Blake
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    Jul 30th 2023, 2:22 PM

    @A F: last thing country needs is the whiff of semtex the Shinner criminal gang brings.

    9
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    Mute Sheila McNulty
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    Jul 30th 2023, 6:43 PM

    @A F: if u had a New Government in the morning are you really that Naive that u believe everything will be wonderful Houses will be built for everyone take the blinkers off

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    Mute Emmet Murphy
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    Jul 30th 2023, 6:55 PM

    @Roj Blake: Hang on now, they could blow a few holes in our mountains and house people there. Back to cave dwelling castles!

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    Mute Voice of Reason
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    Jul 30th 2023, 10:58 AM

    How about reducing immigration as well? That would mean more Irish people getting their own houses?

    We all know these housbuilding targets arent going to be met… even if they were met, do we really want to build on greenbelt? Start deporting failed asylum seekers and stop handing out visas and there will be more houses for Irish…

    FFG arent on the side of the average Irish citizen….

    219
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    Mute Paddy C
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    Jul 30th 2023, 1:53 PM

    @Voice of Reason: too much sense all at once I’m afraid pity those idiots in the dail can’t see even a glimmer of common sense to what you’re suggesting but they won’t cause it doesn’t effect them so sod everyone else

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    Mute Michael Mc Gee
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    Jul 30th 2023, 10:27 AM

    This Government is not doing its job! What’s the point of everyone working if they can’t afford anything?

    173
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    Mute Daddy or Chips?
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    Jul 30th 2023, 1:22 PM

    @Michael Mc Gee: To create more government dependence and keep the whole show running according to their rules. You are mistaken, they are doing their jobs and doing them very well. It’s just that their job isn’t what you think it is. They don’t work for us. When you come to terms with that, everything they do makes sense.

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    Mute Paddy C
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    Jul 30th 2023, 1:51 PM

    @Michael Mc Gee: not much point and with fuel set to rise again in October and that’ll pass on through everything else once again to compensate there’ll be less point more so.

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    Mute michael mcsharry
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    Jul 31st 2023, 1:49 AM

    @Michael Mc Gee: The government represents the interests of foreign private finance institutions. Why do you think you matter? Grow up. Did you vote for 70 data centres to take 33% of the electricity capacity in this country at the last election? Did you vote for this capacity to given to international commercial interests and their financial backers for nothing?

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    Mute brian o'leary
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    Jul 30th 2023, 9:51 AM

    Maybe cut the taxes on building materials instead of newspapers?

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    Mute Louis Jacob
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    Jul 30th 2023, 9:41 AM

    Ever since we completely shut down the country for a prolonged period of time in 2020, and the sky didn’t fall as we’d been lead to believe it certainly would, I’ve had the feeling that all government planning, and forecasting is nothing but hot air. Action is the only thing that means anything. I wish, just for once put “leaders” could step out of the election cycle for just a moment, stop pitting us against each other according to voting models, and actually do what’s right.Talk is worse than cheap. It’s completely redundant.

    120
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    Mute michael mcsharry
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    Jul 31st 2023, 1:52 AM

    @Louis Jacob: The first move in your plan should be a referendum to make the Dail an alcohol free zone. The second should be a referendum on getting all government ministers to publish their income sources in the public media.

    9
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    Mute Cian Martin (longhalloween)
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    Jul 30th 2023, 10:27 AM

    Ireland is a victim of its own success. Thousands of well paid MNCs attracting skilled foreign labour, which increases housing demand. Meanwhile we don’t have half enough construction workers are because any 18 year old with sense can see that a high paying STEM desk job is far more attractive than trades.
    Also Eastern Europe is booming, so those workers who fuelled the 2008 boom are staying home instead of coming here.

    Add in a government who are burying their head in the sand and doing ANYTHING to keep the price of houses high.

    119
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    Mute michael mcsharry
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    Jul 31st 2023, 1:55 AM

    The financial services industry controls the government and the nation. Wake up people!!!!

    8
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    Mute Denis Rathsallagh Brady
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    Jul 30th 2023, 11:27 AM

    Wicklow isnt allowed build one new house. Why?

    Because the population target has already been met. So no new builds.
    I kid you not…..
    Source : the Wicklow Times. Free local paper

    87
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    Mute Emmet Murphy
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    Jul 30th 2023, 11:27 AM

    We have an auctioneer in our town, he is a FG councillor and must be making a ton on land sales. How many, are Solicitors/Auctioneers/Engineers/Builders, making huge profits and that is why the housing problem is not solved!

    83
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    Mute Fearg
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    Jul 30th 2023, 10:31 AM

    We cannont begin to rebuild the country – for that is what is needed – until we get this
    government out.

    The word ‘useless’ is now toxic but you can see where it fits in the above sentence.

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    Mute Roj Blake
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    Jul 30th 2023, 5:49 PM

    @Fearg: thankfully polls show current Govt has a substantial lead over the alternative Shinner criminal gang

    7
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    Mute zy
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    Jul 30th 2023, 12:12 PM

    Stop relying on private company’s to build homes that is the states job. I work in dlr county council and I started in the housing section (I got a transfer recently thankfully) I was verbally abused every day over the phone by foreign nationals demanding they should be housed when poping out kid after kid as well as that I seen the council contracts that they entered into to with private companys such as the council giving the land for free to the developer to build homes then the developer would charge unbelievable amounts to the council to buy 10 percent of these I remember the council bought a lot of three beds apartments that worked out at €700 thousand euros and you can guess who got them…. Government are a disgrace and they should go back to previous and let council build homes for everybody and house accordingly

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    Mute Daddy or Chips?
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    Jul 30th 2023, 1:30 PM

    @zy: Councils are government. It is not the responsibility of government to build houses for people, that philosophy is what has gotten us into this mess. Look at the childrens hospital fiasco. Do you actually want that to be the norm? Imagine the same people in charge of building 10s of 1000s of homes. Are you for real? We have plenty of small independent builders here, we don’t need more of big developer, government buddies building stuff and charging what they like. If you want the government to house everyone, all you will get is poorly built commie blocks and insanely rich developers, bribing govt official for contracts to build the commie blocks.

    19
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    Mute Roj Blake
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    Jul 30th 2023, 2:26 PM

    @Daddy or Chips?: small builders don’t have the expertise or finance to deliver large projects, they do however benefit from work as sub contractors

    9
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    Mute N D K
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    Jul 30th 2023, 11:15 AM

    Imagine what you know from RTE propaganda and government lies
    NOW IMAGINE what you don’t know…..

    96
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    Mute Roj Blake
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    Jul 30th 2023, 2:24 PM

    @N D K: for you sake I hope the shops never run out of tin foil and hand lotion

    6
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    Mute Dan Breen
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    Jul 30th 2023, 2:26 PM

    How come nobody ever mentions uncontrolled mass immigration?

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    Mute Paul Cunningham
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    Jul 30th 2023, 2:49 PM

    @Dan Breen: Because the housing crisis was a housing crisis for nearly a decade before that. FFG are collecting their rent money regardless of who lives in their shoeboxes.

    18
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    Mute Roj Blake
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    Jul 30th 2023, 3:29 PM

    @Dan Breen: probably because the Nazis are too busy hunting down their gold bars.

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    Mute Daddy or Chips?
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    Jul 30th 2023, 3:53 PM

    @Roj Blake: Retaŕd

    33
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    Mute michael mcsharry
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    Jul 31st 2023, 2:00 AM

    @Paul Cunningham: Exactly, rentier capitalism has taken over from the capitalism that actually produced anything people could use. The finance “industry” has conned everyone about the meaning of the word progress.

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    Mute Aidan C
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    Jul 31st 2023, 10:47 PM

    @Dan Breen: mentioned more than twice in these comments.
    There’s no need to penalise one population in order to support another. To put it politly

    1
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    Mute Wayne Shoes
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    Jul 30th 2023, 2:40 PM

    Roj works for Rte lol.Man will ever take that tinfoil hat off.Go for a walk or something man

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    Mute Alan Scott
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    Jul 31st 2023, 8:56 AM

    Government should give back the public housing building program to the local Authorities as private builders are not interested unless it’s in the riches part of the Country

    1
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