CLAIMS THAT THE cost of the MetroLink will exceed €23 billion have been disputed, with some citing the figure as accurate but with others having questioned it.

MetroLink, previously called Metro North, is a proposed, partly underground rail line that will link Dublin Airport with the city centre, as well as other rail and Luas lines.

According to the project’s website, the completed line will “travel from Swords to Dublin city centre in approximately 25 minutes” and will be capable of carrying “up to 20,000 passengers per hour in each direction.”

However, the MetroLink project has been beset by delays for years. There are still controversies relating to the route of the line and where it should terminate.

As the timeline for the project lengthens, there has been criticism of the project’s expected cost. So how much will taxpayers be on the hook for?

The Claim

Numerous outlets have reported that the MetroLink will cost north of €23 billion.

“Metrolink costs spiral to more than €23 billion,” a 19 March headline in the Dublin People local newspaper reads.

“The long-delayed Metrolink project has now hit an estimated price tag of up to €23 billion, according to briefing documents given to Transport Minister Darragh O’Brien” a Lovin Dublin article of 12 March reads. “That’s nearly triple the original estimate.”

“Will no one shout stop as the MetroLink bill heads past €20bn?” asked Michael McDowell in a column posted on his website and published in the Irish Times, also on 12 March.

“We know that Minister for Transport Darragh O’Brien has been formally warned that the cost could exceed €23 billion,” McDowell wrote. “That is about five times the cost on which approval was sought by the National Transport Authority.”

The Evidence

All of these articles cite the same source for the €23 billion figure: a briefing note for Transport Minister Darragh O’Brien.

This 24-page, partially redacted document dated January 2025, was released on 7 March by the Department of Transport on the government’s website and is titled Incoming Ministerial Brief.

Ministerial briefs are documents that summarise the work of the department, partner agencies, ongoing issues, and key personnel, in order to help enable incoming ministers to do their jobs effectively. 

Page 32 of the document is dedicated to the Metrolink project. It begins:

“MetroLink is one of the largest ever infrastructure investment projects in the history of the State and its delivery cannot be treated as ‘business as usual’ if that delivery is to be successful.”

It goes on to say there was a “range of potential costs from €7.16bn to €12.25bn”. 

(These costs were all given in 2021 prices and exclude VAT).

However, the report also notes that the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform gave a “potential upper-range ‘P95’ costs of €23.39bn.”

In an email to The Journal, the Department of Transport clarified what was meant by a ‘P95’ cost. The term indicates that officials are 95% confident that the final cost of MetroLink will be the same or less than €23.39 billion.

In short, the document says that the project should cost between €7.16 billion and €12.25 billion, and that there is a less-than 1-in-20 certainty that the figure will rise above €23.39 billion.

Much of the rest of the page in the document is redacted, though one visible line reads: “A definitive total scheme budget and target cost proposal will only be known after procurement.”

This is to say that officials have not agreed on a price with suppliers, specialists, and workers, so all of these costs are just estimates.

So although a figure of €23.39 billion is mentioned in the document, it is not a “price tag” that has been put on the project, as one outlet said.

Instead, it is better described as something akin to a worst case scenario that the document claims with 95% certainty won’t be exceeded.

As of now, a more likely official estimate is between €7.16 and €12.25bn. However, it’s worth noting that Ireland has a track record of going significantly over budget on big infrastructure projects such as the National Children’s Hospital or the initial stages of the Luas. 

Nevertheless, the estimates given in the briefing document (which is what all the articles were based on) indicates that the final price tag will probably fall far short of €23.39 billion.

“It should be noted that, by definition, this cost estimate is considered unlikely,” the Department of Transport said in an email to The Journal. “It is too early in the project lifecycle to give a precise capital cost or budget for MetroLink.

“This is because the project has yet to go through the planning and procurement stages, and a precise project budget will only be available after those stages are complete.”

Verdict 

Multiple outlets had cited a Department of Transport document to say that a cost of €23 billion was estimated for the MetroLink project.

A figure of €23 billion for MetroLink was mentioned in the document. However, that figure was an upper estimate with a warning that there was a 95% chance that the actual cost would be lower than this.

Articles that cited the €23 billion figure as the project’s cost also omitted a more likely estimate, of between €7.16 billion and €12.25 billion.

As such, we find claims that the MetroLink was officially estimated to cost €23 billion as MISLEADING. As per our verdict guide, this means that, either intentionally or unintentionally, such claims are likely to give readers an inaccurate understanding of the subject.

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