IF PUBLIC HEALTH experts recommend a delay of some or all of the 5 July restrictions, such as indoor dining, it would be close to impossible for the government to reject the advice, according to government sources. 

“Too early to say” was the resounding answer from ministers when they were asked yesterday if the government will renege on the easing of restrictions next month. 

There was surprise from some who sit at Cabinet to the Taoiseach’s remarks that signified that the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) was poised to make a cautious recommendation that could delay any easing for a two or three week period. 

Tuesday’s Cabinet had been described as calm, with little cause for panic over the Delta variant and the impact it might have on the further reopening. 

Overnight, the tone of the message had changed, with sources stating that the chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan had been in touch with the Health Minister Stephen Donnelly airing concerns. 

“The writing seems to be on the wall from NPHET’s point of view”, said one senior source who added that the CMO told the health minister that he is worried about the variant, and that a few weeks’ deferral could prevent a rise in hospitalisations and give more time to get people vaccinated.

Sources have said that such a decision would not be an easy one for government, stating that younger people in particular would be very angry at any delay.

Other government sources raised concerns about the Taoiseach being “over cautious”.

They stated that Ireland will be seen as an outlier in Europe due to other regions such Northern Ireland, Scotland and Britain, as well as other EU nations, which all have the dominant Delta variant, and have had for a number of weeks, are able to carry on with indoor dining, while also accommodating thousands of people at large events such as football matches.

While hospitalisations and cases are rising in some areas, such as the UK – by about 30%-40%, as pointed out by the Tánaiste yesterday – it is from a very low base, and not overloading health services. 

One source said the Taoiseach had made it easy for NPHET to give a cautious recommendation next week with his comments yesterday.

However, another senior source said they are concerned about the variant, stating that it is the unknown that has a question mark over next week’s announcement.  

They said it is the trajectory that is the problem, and cause for concern, stating that last  December showed that you can act too late. 

All eyes in the Irish government are looking at the UK data to reassure them that it is safe to proceed as planned, with those in government stating that if the UK doesn’t end up in serious trouble in a few weeks, and should they manage it with the Delta variant as dominant, while also having indoor dining open and half-full stadiums, then Ireland should be able to also. 

But the discussion around the reopening raises the age old question that this pandemic has raised throughout – who’s in charge?

Similar questions were being asked this time last year, when in one Cabinet meeting in May, ministers question the role of Holohan and NPHET in the running of the country as the cracks between the politics side of things and the scientists began to show.

It was early May, summer time, people were eager to move around, go places, see families and friends, similar to now, a full 12 months later.

Those in government are conscious that Ireland has been in the longest lockdown in Europe, and while harsh restrictions were largely accepted when the number of deaths were high, and when the vaccine programme was in its infancy, it will be a hard – if not an impossible sell – for ministers to make to the public next week. 

Restaurants and pubs are already out the block to say they can’t take any more surprises. While Varadkar said he understood that businesses want clarity and certainty, he said the government can’t give any until next week. 

So how would a delay go down with people?

Fianna Fáil senator Lisa Chambers told The Journal:

“From speaking to some local businesses they are preparing for possible bad news but would prefer a delay of maybe three weeks rather than open up and be told to close again.”

“NPHET will focus solely on public health however the government have to balance that advice and consider mental health, a further economic hit and potential job losses.”

She added:

“If we’ve learned anything the past year and a half it’s how fast things can change. I think if the Delta variant takes hold and we see an increase in hospitalisations and ICU numbers then it makes sense to delay the next phase of reopening for a few more weeks to allow for the 30-39 age cohort to get vaccinated.”

Chambers said trying to stop international travel would be a “fruitless exercise”.

“The Delta variant came from the UK and we can’t close our borders with the north so closing off travel from other EU countries makes little sense and would only serve to further damage the aviation sector which is already on its knees. I think we need to stick with the EU travel system and Covid travel certificate,” she said. 

One TD who has not been shy in giving his opinion to his party leader is Sligo-Leitrim TD Marc MacSharry, who says he made it clear to the Taoiseach yesterday that the government must not penalise hospitality and the travel industry any further. 

“We must press ahead with reopening to the stated schedule for indoor hospitality and travel in July. Those within vulnerable age groups or categories who await their second AstraZeneca jab must be advised to take additional care and avoid pubic settings where people have congregated until they receive their second jab.

“Meanwhile the HSE must redouble the efforts to accelerate the vaccination programme for these people as a matter of absolute priority. The greater good must prevail on this occasion with those not vulnerable and fully vaccinated must be able to continue to enjoy increasing freedoms they are entitled to. 

“Caution is good, but total risk aversion is not practicable and is unnecessary,” he said. 

“We have watched partially full stadia throughout Europe where people have been enjoying the European Championships, meanwhile here just a couple of thousand were allowed into Croke Park at the weekend.

He said vaccinations and common sense are required now, adding that NPHET has their job to do, “however our elected politicians must distil medical advice together with  all other considerations including mental health and economic needs of a functioning society”. 

“The Delta variant is known and is understood. It will inevitably become the dominant variant here as the Alpha variant did before it. Vaccinations prevent severe illness and hospitalisations for both. Let’s increase the pace of inoculations,” he said.