VOTERS IN THE upcoming European elections are evenly split on the relevance of immigration to the forthcoming vote, but a third say they will vote for an “anti-immigration” candidate.
Asked about the influence of immigration ahead of June’s European elections, The Journal/Ireland Thinks poll found a virtual dead-heat across the three options presented.
Respondents in the second survey in the major series were asked if they “think the issue of immigration will influence” their first preference choice. The results were as follows:
Although polling has shown that the Irish public remains one of the most positive in the EU27 regarding their attitudes towards immigration, the figures show that the issue is likely to feature in the debate ahead of the election.
The polling also provides a breakdown of responses across a number of different categories, including age, party allegiance and news consumption.
It shows that men (37%) are more likely than women (29%) to vote for an anti-immigration candidate, with voters aged 65+ (47%) also much more likely than voters aged 18-35 (26%) to do so.
Across political lines, the respondents who would most-likely vote for an anti-immigration candidate are Independent (73%), Aontú (70%) or Sinn Féin (41%) voters.
Supporters of government parties are much less likely to vote for anti-immigration candidates, with Fianna Fáil supporters (21%) ahead of Fine Gael (13%) and Green Party (1%) voters in that regard.
Voters whose primary news outlet was Gript are overwhelmingly more likely to vote for an anti-immigration candidate, with 85% saying they would. Irish tabloid readers (Mirror, Star and Sun) were grouped together and were the second-most-likely to vote for an anti-immigration candidate at 55%.
Migration crisis
The poll also sought voter opinion on responses to the migration crisis, with specific questions asked about real world or hypothetical policies.
As part of the EU’s New Pact on Migration and Asylum agreed in December, some member states may have the option of paying a monetary contribution rather than accepting migrants.
Asked about this policy, and whether they would be “in favour or opposed” to Ireland paying “a significant financial contribution rather than accept more migrants” , almost half of respondents were in favour.
Unlike the candidate question, there was more uniformity across party support on supporting this approach, with Fianna Fáil supporters (55%) being most likely to be in favour ahead of Aontu (50%), Sinn Féin (49%) and Fine Gael (47%).
Leo Varadkar said in January that Ireland is ‘likely’ to opt to pay contributions – €20,000 per migrant not taken in – instead of accepting more applicants under the pact.
‘Rwanda plan’
Respondents were also asked if they would be in favour of an EU-wide version of the UK’s controversial ‘Rwanda plan’.
In the UK, the highly contentious deportation has been mired in controversy and legal challenges since it was first unveiled by then-prime minister Boris Johnson in 2022.
The plan, which seeks to send asylum seekers to Rwanda for processing, has been deemed unlawful UK Supreme Court and no one has yet been sent to Rwanda.
Despite this, over a third of respondents (36%) would either ‘somewhat support’ or ‘fully support’ an EU-wide version of the plan, with 47% saying they would oppose it somewhat or fully.
Finally, respondents were also asked about rescue missions in the Mediterranean, which seek to save the lives of those crossing the sea into Europe.
The Mediterranean Sea, where many migrants try to reach southern Europe from northern Africa, continues to be the deadliest route for migrants, with at least 3,129 deaths and disappearances registered last year.
The poll asked whether increasing rescue missions would reduce the loss of life, or whether reducing such missions may reduce the number of people trying to cross in the first place.
On that question, 44% said rescue missions should increase, 26% said they should reduce, 11% said they should stay at the same level, and 18% said they were not sure.
The poll was carried out by Ireland Thinks between 1-10 March with a sample size of 1,287. The margin of error is 2.8%.
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This work is co-funded by Journal Media and a grant programme from the European Parliament. Any opinions or conclusions expressed in this work are the author’s own. The European Parliament has no involvement in nor responsibility for the editorial content published by the project. For more information, see here.
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